油价风云突变：10月13日调整或将搁浅？ 牵动万千车主神经的新一轮国内油价调整窗口，已确定将于10月13日24时开启。国庆节前，市场普遍预期油价将迎来大幅上调。然而，随着国际油价近期大 幅跳水，这一预期是否会落空，油价调整最终搁浅？有料财经将为您深度剖析这背后的复杂博弈。 国际油价"跌跌不休" 本周国际原油市场遭遇重挫，伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收报64.36美元/桶，周跌幅超过7%，创下近四个月来的新低。美国WTI原油期货价格也大幅下挫，跌 至60.35美元/桶。 三大因素联手打压油价 有料财经认为，国际油价此番大幅下跌，主要受到以下三大因素的影响： OPEC增产预期升温：华尔街国际金融机构的原油交易员普遍预计，欧佩克将在11月增加13.7万桶/日的原油产量。此外，沙特阿拉伯方面也表示，将根据市 场情况灵活调整原油产量，这进一步强化了市场对原油供应增加的预期。有料财经统计数据显示，欧佩克原油产量已连续五个月呈现增长态势。 | | 汽油(标准品) | 柴油(标准品) | | --- | --- | --- | | 一、实行一省一价的地区 | | | | 北京市 | 8860 | 7855 | | 十十八十 | | ...

2020-2025年1-8月中国原油产量统计图 上市企业：中国石油（601857）,中国石化（600028）,大庆华科（000985）,广汇能源（600256）,潜能恒 信（300191）,ST海越（600387） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国石油行业发展策略分析及投资前景研究报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年8月中国原油产量为1826万吨，同比增长2.4%；2025年1-8月中国原油 累计产量为14485.8万吨，累计增长1.4%。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

Group 1 - In the first four months of 2025, the crude oil production of large-scale industrial enterprises in Sichuan Province reached 84,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, which is a slowdown of 47.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024. This production accounts for 0.1% of the national crude oil production of 71,811,000 tons during the same period [1] - In April 2025, the crude oil production in Sichuan Province was 21,000 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, which is a decrease of 21.3 percentage points compared to April 2024. This production also represents 0.1% of the national crude oil production of 1,772,400 tons for that month [2] Group 2 - The data on crude oil production is based on large-scale industrial legal entities, specifically those with an annual main business income of 20 million yuan or more [6]

Core Insights - In the first five months of 2025, the crude oil production in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region reached 519,000 tons, marking a 0.10% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 2.7 percentage points higher than 2024, but 1.2 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - In May 2025 alone, the crude oil production in Ningxia was 125,000 tons, representing a significant 21.20% increase year-on-year, with a growth rate 28.0 percentage points higher than 2024 and 19.4 percentage points above the national average [2] Summary by Category Production Data - The cumulative crude oil production from January to May 2025 in Ningxia was 519,000 tons, accounting for 0.6% of the national production of 9,028,000 tons [1] - In May 2025, the production reached 125,000 tons, which is 0.7% of the national production of 1,846,900 tons [2] Growth Rates - The growth rate for the first five months of 2025 was 0.10%, which is 2.7 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024, but lower than the national growth rate by 1.2 percentage points [1] - The growth rate for May 2025 was 21.20%, significantly higher than the 2024 figure by 28.0 percentage points and above the national growth rate by 19.4 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - expectation is difficult to reverse the weak fundamental situation, limiting the geopolitical premium space in the short - term and driving the center of the crude oil futures market to gradually decline in the long - term. The market reaction is generally bearish due to the entry into the traditional demand off - season and the Fed's interest rate decision [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Production - As of the week ending September 12, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.482 million barrels, a decrease of 13,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 282,000 barrels from the same period last year. The four - week daily average production as of September 12 was 13.46 million barrels, 1.4% higher than the same period last year. The daily average production this year was 13.437 million barrels, 1.9% higher than last year [1]. Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415.361 million barrels, a decrease of 2.19%. Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 296,000 barrels to 23.561 million barrels, a decrease of 1.24%. US gasoline inventory decreased by 2.347 million barrels to 217.650 million barrels, a decrease of 1.07%. US distillate oil inventory increased by 4.046 million barrels to 124.684 million barrels, an increase of 3.35%. US total oil product inventory increased by 1.171 million barrels to 1.282421 billion barrels, an increase of 0.019%. US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.728 million barrels, an increase of 0.12% [1][2]. Refinery - The US refinery utilization rate was 93.3%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous week, a decrease of 1.69% [2]. Trade - US crude oil imports were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day from the previous week, a decrease of 9.23%. US crude oil exports were 5.277 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.532 million barrels per day from the previous week, an increase of 92.1%, reaching the highest level in nearly two years [1][2]. Interest Rate - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. After the announcement of the Fed's interest rate decision, oil prices showed a downward trend [1].

Group 1 - As of the week ending September 12, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, marking the largest decline since June 13, 2025, against market expectations of a decrease of 0.857 million barrels and a previous value of 3.939 million barrels [1] - U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 40.57 million barrels, the highest level since October 7, 2022 [1] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels, compared to a previous value of 1.458 million barrels [1] - Distillate inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels, exceeding expectations of 0.975 million barrels and a previous value of 4.715 million barrels [1] Group 2 - U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day as of the week ending September 12, 2025 [1] - The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.69% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3 - U.S. commercial crude oil imports, excluding the Strategic Reserve, were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since June 13, 2025 [1] - U.S. crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, the highest level since December 29, 2023 [1] Group 4 - As of September 18, 2025, WTI crude oil was reported at $63.41 per barrel, down 0.36%, while Brent crude was reported at $67.13 per barrel, down 0.42% [2]

Core Insights - OPEC+ increased its average daily crude oil production to 42.4 million barrels in August, an increase of 509,000 barrels from July [1] - Saudi Arabia's daily crude oil production rose by 258,000 barrels to 9.71 million barrels in August [1] - OPEC maintains its forecast for non-OPEC+ countries' supply growth at 810,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 630,000 barrels per day for 2026 [1]

Group 1 - OPEC monthly report indicates that in August, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day compared to July [1] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil production in August rose by 258,000 barrels per day, reaching 9.71 million barrels per day [1] - The forecast for non-OPEC+ countries' supply growth for 2025 is maintained at 810,000 barrels per day, while the forecast for 2026 is kept at 630,000 barrels per day [1]

Group 1 - As of the week ending August 29, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease of 2.031 million barrels [1] - The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory rose by 509,000 barrels to 40.47 million barrels, the highest level since October 14, 2022 [1] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 3.795 million barrels, marking the largest decline since the week ending April 25, 2025, and have now fallen for seven consecutive weeks [1] Group 2 - U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day as of the week ending August 29, 2025 [1] - The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.282 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.47% compared to the same period last year [1] - U.S. crude oil imports, excluding the Strategic Reserve, increased by 508,000 barrels per day to 6.742 million barrels per day [1] Group 3 - As of September 5, 2025, WTI crude oil was reported at $63.23 per barrel, down 0.17%, while Brent crude was at $66.74 per barrel, down 0.21% [3]

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures was $66.9 and $63.1 per barrel, reflecting a change of +$0.7 and -$0.2 from the previous week [1][2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic petroleum reserve, and Cushing crude oil inventory were reported at 82 million, 42 million, 40 million, and 2 million barrels, with changes of -579, -601, +22, and +42 thousand barrels respectively [2][3] - U.S. crude oil production was 13.38 million barrels per day, an increase of +60 thousand barrels per day from the previous week [2][3] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. was 411, down by 1 rig, while the active fracturing fleet was 167, down by 2 units [2][3] Refined Products Market - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. were $89, $95, and $89 per barrel, with changes of +$1.6, +$0.5, and -$5.1 respectively [3][4] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories were reported at 22 million, 12 million, and 4 million barrels, with changes of -272, +234, and -45 thousand barrels respectively [3][4] - Production levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were 9.55 million, 5.33 million, and 1.96 million barrels per day, with changes of -26, +19, and -1 thousand barrels per day respectively [3][4] - Consumption levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were 8.84 million, 3.97 million, and 1.90 million barrels per day, with changes of -16, +27, and +7 thousand barrels per day respectively [3][4] Trade Dynamics - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 0.9 million, 1.02 million, and 0.93 million barrels per day, with changes of -16, +19, and +35 thousand barrels per day respectively [4] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 0.12 million, 1.15 million, and 1.03 million barrels per day, with changes of +2, -29, and -31 thousand barrels per day respectively [4] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports were 0.1 million, 0.22 million, and 0.12 million barrels per day, with changes of +7, -4, and -11 thousand barrels per day respectively [4] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, Offshore Oil Engineering, and CNOOC Development [4]