Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty around the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September support the upward trend of gold prices. Gold's volatility has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may fluctuate widely between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. [4] - The restructuring of the international trade monetary system and the Fed's rate - cut expectation continue to support the long - and medium - term bull market of gold. However, high price - to - earnings ratios also lead to increased volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to consolidate within the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. [6] - Although the global economic situation is not favorable for silver with strong industrial attributes, the central bank's easing expectation may support silver prices in the medium and short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: On August 18th, during the Asian session, London gold rebounded to around $3350 per ounce after falling to $3323 per ounce. The strong rise of the Chinese stock market boosted silver. Gold's safe - haven demand was enhanced due to Trump 2.0's new policies. [4] - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The decline in international trade uncertainty weakens gold's safe - haven demand, but the restructuring of the international trade monetary system and the Fed's rate - cut expectation support gold prices. The London gold - to - silver ratio has stabilized after回调 to 86. [6] - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 779.47, up 0.24%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9275, up 0.58%; Gold T + D closed at 774.80, up 0.22%; Silver T + D closed at 9227, up 0.42%. [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [8][10][12] 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a face - to - face meeting in Alaska. They made progress on some issues but did not reach an agreement on suspending the war in Ukraine. A peace proposal involves land exchanges between Russia and Ukraine, but its nature is unclear. [18] - US retail sales in July grew strongly, but labor market softness and rising commodity prices may suppress consumer spending growth in Q3. After the data release, the probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in September dropped from 94% to about 89%. [18] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the rise in service inflation was concerning, indicating a stagflation impact of tariffs on the economy. He believes more data is needed to judge the economic situation. [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international trade - currency system restructuring and reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic conditions will support the medium - term bull market of gold. However, high price and P/E ratio mean increased volatility. In the short - term, London gold will continue to move in a range waiting for the next upward breakthrough. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions, and short - minded traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage when silver's upward momentum fades [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - More Fed officials worry about the US job market and support rate cuts, which weakens the US dollar and supports precious metal prices. But the potential cooling of the Russia - Ukraine war and the clarification of no import tariffs on gold and silver weaken the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold pulled back to around $3360 per ounce overnight, while silver was slightly stronger due to China's anti - involution policy expectations. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump 2.0's new policies. London gold may fluctuate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions. This week, pay attention to the US - Russia summit, US inflation data, Fed officials' statements, and China's economic data [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and US fiscal expansion reduce gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks support the price. Speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum in June, and silver prices fluctuated greatly in July. The gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly after falling to 86. The long - term bull market of gold is supported by international trade and currency system restructuring, and the medium - term bull market is supported by Trump's policies and economic conditions. Gold's volatility has increased, and in the third quarter, pay attention to the impact of US economic and inflation conditions on Fed policies. It is expected that London gold will continue to move in a range in the short - term. Long - minded investors can participate with medium - low positions, and short - minded traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai gold T+D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Commerce Department allows Nvidia to export H20 chips to China, and Nvidia and AMD will pay 15% of their Chinese chip sales revenue to the US government [18]. - Trump will meet Putin on August 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war, and the White House is considering inviting Zelensky. European leaders welcome the meeting but emphasize the need to pressure Moscow [18]. - Many Fed officials are worried about the labor market and suggest rate cuts in September. However, some officials think it's too early to commit to rate cuts due to upcoming key data and expected inflation rise [19]. - The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but four of the nine policymakers opposed it, indicating that consecutive rate cuts may be near the end [19].

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 11 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 特朗普提名白宫首席经济顾问米兰暂时担任美联储新理事，这意味着美联储 可能受到更多来自特朗普政府的压力，市场预计美联储 9 月 17 日会议降息概率高 达 86.6%，美联储降息预期支持贵金属偏强运行；但也有美联储官员表态 9 月降 息并非板上钉钉，且美国政府压力下俄乌冲突可能降温，因此伦敦黄金在 3400 美元/盎司附近遭遇较大压力。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局加速重组且进入 乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of trade policies and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut support the gold price, while the narrowing of the US trade deficit in June and the service PMI above the boom-bust line support the US dollar index and weaken the safe-haven demand for gold. The London gold price continues to trade in the range of $3345 - $3390 per ounce. The gold's safe-haven demand is greatly boosted by Trump's 2.0 new policy, and the London gold may rise again after wide-range consolidation between $3120 - $3500 per ounce. It is recommended that investors maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions [4]. - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide-range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade situation and the US fiscal expansion bill weaken the safe-haven and allocation demand for gold, but the uncertainty of Trump's new policy and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price. The safe-haven and reserve diversification demand brought by the reorganization of the international trade and monetary system will continue to support the long-term bull market of gold, and the economic growth weakness and the expectation of central bank interest rate cuts caused by Trump's multiple reforms will support the medium-term bull market. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions, and short-minded traders can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on gold and shorting silver" after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's tariff threats on drugs, semiconductors, and India, and the nomination of new Fed governors, along with trade policy uncertainty and Fed rate cut expectations, support the gold price. Meanwhile, the narrowing of the US trade deficit in June and the service PMI above the boom-bust line support the US dollar index and weaken the safe-haven demand for gold. The London gold price continues to trade in the range of $3345 - $3390 per ounce. The expectation of the Fed restarting the rate cut process drives the global stock market and industrial commodities to run strongly, and the London gold-silver ratio slightly drops to 89.2. It is recommended that investors maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions [4]. Medium-Term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide-range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade situation and the US fiscal expansion bill weaken the safe-haven and allocation demand for gold, but the uncertainty of Trump's new policy and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price. In June, speculative funds flooded into the relatively underperforming silver and platinum markets, and the gold-silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long position mindset and participate in trading with medium to low positions, and short-minded traders can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on gold and shorting silver" after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. Group 5: Domestic Precious Metals Market Conditions | Contract | Pre - closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 784.16 | 787.42 | 784.30 | 785.36 | 0.15% | 433,180 | - 4596 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 9,093 | 9,217 | 9,113 | 9,199 | 1.17% | 789,871 | 5,633 | | Gold T + D | 779.92 | 781.70 | 775.17 | 779.63 | - 0.04% | 216,324 | 7,234 | | Silver T + D | 9,052 | 9,168 | 9,045 | 9,150 | 1.08% | 3,470,566 | 27,222 | [5] Group 6: Main Macro Events/Data 1. In June, the US trade deficit narrowed by 16.0% to $60.2 billion, and the trade deficit with China decreased by about one-third to $9.5 billion, the lowest since February 2004. In July, the US service industry business activity was basically flat, orders hardly changed, employment weakened further, and input costs rose at the largest rate in nearly three years, highlighting the continuous drag of tariff policy uncertainty on enterprises [18]. 2. Trump will decide on the replacement for Fed governor Kugler before the weekend and has narrowed the list of candidates for the next Fed chair to four, including current National Economic Council Director Hassett and former Fed governor Warsh. Treasury Secretary Bessent is excluded because he wants to continue in his current position [18]. 3. The US will first impose a "small tariff" on drug imports and then increase the rate in about a year. Trump will announce tariffs on semiconductors and chips in about a week. Given India's continued purchase of Russian oil, Trump will "significantly" increase the tariffs on goods imported from India from the current 25% within the next 24 hours [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Trump's new policy and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price, while the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill reduce the demand for gold as a hedge and for allocation. The report expects the long - term and medium - term bull markets of gold to continue, but the price volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended that investors participate in trading with a long - term mindset and medium - low positions [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Trends**: Due to Trump's threat to Russia and the lack of breakthroughs in the China - US - Sweden economic and trade meeting, the US dollar index pulled back slightly after reaching 99, and London gold rebounded to around $3330 per ounce. The Politburo meeting's lack of specific deployment on anti - involution made silver, which has strong industrial attributes, relatively weak. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term mindset and use medium - low positions to participate in trading. This week, attention should be paid to economic and trade talks, central bank meetings, and important economic data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 775.25, up 0.29% with an open interest of 424,176 and an increase of 3248; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9,205, down 0.03% with an open interest of 835,724 and a decrease of 10,841; Gold T + D closed at 769.40, up 0.29% with an open interest of 214,988 and an increase of 8030; Silver T + D closed at 9,166, up 0.03% with an open interest of 3,535,666 and an increase of 30,532 [5]. - **Medium - term Trends**: Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The inflow of speculative funds into the silver and platinum markets in June has brought the gold - silver ratio back to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to maintain a long - term mindset and use medium - low positions to participate in trading [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **China - US Economic and Trade Talks**: China and the US held a two - day constructive meeting in Stockholm, aiming to ease the trade war. Both sides agreed to strive to extend the current 90 - day tariff truce, but no major breakthroughs were announced, and whether to extend the truce will be decided by President Trump [18]. - **IMF's Global Economic Growth Forecast**: The International Monetary Fund slightly raised its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively, but warned that the global economy still faces significant risks [18]. - **Trump's Statement on Russia**: Trump said that if Russia shows no progress in ending the Ukraine war, the US will impose tariffs and other measures on Russia 10 days after July 29 [18]. - **China's PV Industry Association**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a clarification statement, indicating that recent news about anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, especially in the polysilicon sector, does not match the actual situation [19].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE levels increase volatility, and in Q3, the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing should be noted. [5] - It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions. For those with a short - term view, they can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity after the silver's upward momentum fades. [4][5] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The potential harm of the US - EU trade agreement to the European economy led to a more than 1% drop in the euro against the US dollar, pushing the US dollar index to around 99. The easing of international trade and the cease - fire on the Thai - Cambodian border reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold fell to around $3300 per ounce, while silver with strong industrial attributes was strong due to Sino - US trade negotiation expectations. [4] - Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold is expected to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise. [4] - This week, attention should be paid to Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade talks, central bank meetings, and important economic data. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill reduced the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but Trump's policies and geopolitical risks supported the price. [5] - In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. [5] - It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, waiting for the next upward breakthrough. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7][9][11] 3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Sino - US senior economic officials held over five - hour talks in Stockholm to extend the trade truce by three months. [17] - A cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia took effect at midnight on Monday, ending a deadly conflict. [17] - Trump set a new deadline for Russia to make progress in ending the Ukraine war. [17] - Trump expects to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements with the US and will send notice letters to about 200 countries. The US is considering changing its Myanmar policy regarding rare - earth resources. The EU and the US will establish a metal alliance as part of the trade agreement. [18]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The political risks in the US have pushed down the US dollar index and boosted the prices of gold and silver. Gold's safe - haven demand is strongly supported, and its volatility has increased while the medium - term upward trend remains intact. The report suggests investors maintain a bullish mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - The long - term bull market of gold is supported by the hedging and reserve diversification needs from the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and the medium - term bull market is supported by Trump's reforms, economic weakness, and central bank rate - cut expectations. However, the high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing in the third quarter should be monitored [5]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Trump's government's pressure on Fed Chair Powell and a congressman's criminal charge against Powell have pushed down the US dollar index and caused London gold to rebound to $3390 per ounce. The anti - involution expectation has driven up the price of silver with strong industrial attributes. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, and it is expected to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce before the next upward breakthrough. Investors are advised to hold a bullish view and trade with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary PMI values in July in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened gold's hedging and allocation needs, Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks still support the price. The gold - silver ratio has returned to the level before April. The report expects London gold to continue to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish view, and bearish - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The EU is exploring broader counter - measures against the US as the prospect of a trade agreement with Washington fades. Some EU countries are evaluating the use of a comprehensive anti - coercion mechanism [17]. - The US Treasury Secretary suggests a review of the Fed, and the Fed responds to the White House's criticism of the renovation cost of its headquarters [17]. - Guangdong and Anhui in China will regulate the new - energy vehicle industry to promote healthy competition [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification demand will continue to support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's new policies and economic situation will support the medium - term bull market. However, the high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut in the third quarter should be noted. It is recommended that investors take a long - position approach with medium - low positions, and short - thinking traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: Trump's criticism of Powell and the clarification of dismissal rumors, along with US PPI data, caused gold price fluctuations. Anti - involution expectations drove up silver prices. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, with London gold expected to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce before rising again. This week, focus on China's Q2 GDP, June economic data, and US June inflation and consumption data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Quotes**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 777.12, down 0.02%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9174, up 0.18%; Gold T + D closed at 770.80, down 0.18%; Silver T + D closed at 9113, up 0.04% [5]. - **Medium - term Quotes**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks supported it. The gold - silver ratio has returned to pre - April levels. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump said he doesn't plan to fire Powell but doesn't completely rule it out. Bloomberg's report of a possible dismissal caused market fluctuations [17]. - Trump mentioned maintaining Japan's tariff rates, being close to a trade deal with India, and the possibility of a deal with Europe, but it's too early to comment on the Canada deal [17]. - The EU is ready to impose tariffs worth 72 billion euros ($83.6 billion) on US goods if trade negotiations with the US fail [18]. - Canada will implement a tariff - quota system for countries with free - trade agreements (except the US) and impose a 25% additional tariff on steel imports containing Chinese - smelted and cast steel [18]. - US producer prices were unexpectedly flat in June, and weak service prices may create conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates later this year [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may oscillate and consolidate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce before rising again. The long - cycle and medium - cycle bull markets of gold are supported by multiple factors, but the volatility is also significant. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The stabilization and rebound of the US CPI in June supported the Fed's decision to stay on hold. The US dollar index rebounded significantly to around 98.5, and London gold fell back to around $3320 per ounce. However, the change in the US attitude towards Russia and the concern about the long - term Russia - Ukraine conflict provided bottom support for precious metals. London gold rebounded slightly to $3340 per ounce in the Asian session on the 16th [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened the hedging and allocation demand for gold, but the hedging demand due to Trump's new - deal uncertainty and geopolitical risks supported the gold price. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. The long - cycle and medium - cycle bull markets of gold are supported, but the gold price volatility is significant. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate and consolidate in the range of $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia's President Putin intends to continue the war in Ukraine until Western countries accept his peace terms, believing that Russia's economic and military strength can withstand further Western sanctions [17] - NVIDIA will resume the sales of H20 chips in China, announce a new GPU for the Chinese market, and launch a new graphics card RTX Pro [17] - US President Trump reached an agreement with the Indonesian President. Indonesia promised to buy US energy worth $15 billion, US agricultural products worth $4.5 billion, and 50 Boeing aircraft. The US will impose a 19% tariff on all Indonesian imports, while US exports to Indonesia will enjoy tariff - free and non - tariff - barrier - free treatment [17] - The US CPI in June rose 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations. Traders predict that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in September and cut rates nearly twice by the end of the year [18]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 10, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Review - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Trump's new policies have increased geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty, boosting the safe - haven demand for gold. Although the dollar exchange rate and U.S. Treasury yields have risen, which is negative for precious metals in the short - term, the long - term and medium - term upward trend of gold remains intact. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][5]. Summary by Section 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump signed the "Big Beautiful Act" into law, and the U.S. Treasury accelerated debt issuance, causing the dollar exchange rate and U.S. Treasury yields to rise, which was negative for precious metals. On the 9th Asian session, London gold fell to around $3285 per ounce. However, Trump's threat to impose tariffs on copper, drugs, and semiconductors and sell weapons to Ukraine to resist Russia also boosted the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold is expected to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again [4]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 776.87 | 775.87 | 765.83 | 767.30 | - 1.23% | 396,422 | - 2282 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,957 | 8,944 | 8,853 | 8,906 | - 0.57% | 881,108 | - 38229 | | Gold T + D | 771.51 | 771.00 | 761.46 | 763.50 | - 1.04% | 236,664 | 11684 | | Silver T + D | 8,923 | 8,907 | 8,815 | 8,856 | - 0.75% | 3,398,076 | 59188 | [5] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the strong rebound of global stock markets have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, the uncertainty of Trump's new policies, weak global economic growth, and high geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price. The geopolitical risks in South Asia and the Middle East have provided short - term upward momentum for gold. In early June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and London silver soared from $33 to $36.9 per ounce in six working days. It is expected that the long - term bull market of gold will be supported by the safe - haven and reserve diversification demand brought by the restructuring of the international trade and currency system, and the medium - term bull market will be supported by economic weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations. However, the high price and price - to - earnings ratio of gold also mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising U.S. inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing in the third quarter [5]. 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors and drugs (up to 200% for drugs), with copper tariffs possibly implemented by the end of July or August 1 [17]. - Trump said the U.S. will impose a 10% tariff on imports from BRICS countries, which has drawn complaints from Brazilian President Lula. No specific implementation date was given [17]. - Trump approved the delivery of defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering additional sanctions against Moscow [17]. - The U.S. Treasury will increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and plans to increase the issuance of Treasury bills, focusing on short - term bonds. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that the U.S. has received about $100 billion in tariff revenue so far this year, which may increase to $300 billion by the end of 2025 [18].