行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 由于会议纪要显示较多美联储官员在 10 月底会议时即已反对降息，市场对美 联储 12 月会议降息概率从 50%附近骤降至 25%，美元指数则强势反弹至 100 上方， 美联储降息预期降温与美元汇率反弹使得隔夜伦敦黄金冲高后显著回落至 4080 美元/盎司附近，而且市场传言特朗普政府力推 28 点计划，试图联合俄罗斯施压 乌克兰同意停火，这也削弱了贵金属的避险需求。我们判断短期内美联储放缓降 息步伐甚至暂停降息、中美贸易形势边际缓和等利空因素， ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 中日紧张形势推高东亚地缘政治风险和贵金属的避险需求，而高频数据显示 联邦政府停摆事件对美国就业市场带来较大冲击，美联储降息预期重新升温进一 步支持贵金属价格，19 日亚盘时段伦敦黄金反弹至 4100 美元/盎司附近。我们判 断短期内美联储放缓降息步伐甚至暂停降息、中美贸易形势边际缓和等利空因素， 与地缘政治风险上升和国际贸易货币体系加速重组等利多因素相平衡，伦敦黄金 需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的波动区间内运行更长时间以积累再次突破 ...

研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 上周在伦敦黄金反弹至 4245 美元/盎司和伦敦白银接近历史记录之后，美联 储官员表态鹰派抑制了美联储降息预期，美元汇率获得提振而金银价格随之回落； 我们判断短期内美联储放缓降息步伐甚至暂停降息、中美贸易形势边际缓和等利 空因素，与地缘政治风险上升和国际贸易货币体系加速重组等利多因素相平衡， 伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的波动区间内运行更长时间以积累再次突 破动能，目前阶段不宜过度追涨杀跌。但在中期维度，环球央行宽松、地缘政 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metals need to consolidate to digest the previous sharp rise, but in the medium - term, factors such as global central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the accelerated restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide liquidity premiums, safe - haven demand, and reserve diversification demand for precious metals. Investors are advised to maintain a long - biased trading approach and observe the support level of London gold at $3800 - 3850 per ounce. The medium - level bull market for precious metals since March 2024 has not ended, and it is expected that in the next six months and one year, London gold may rise to $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: From October 28th to the present, London gold has been trading sideways in the range of $3880 - $4050 per ounce. The narrowing trading range indicates an imminent short - term price breakthrough. In the short - term, precious metals need to adjust, while in the medium - term, they are supported by multiple factors. Investors are advised to hold a long - biased view and watch the support at $3800 - $3850 per ounce [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 923.97, up 0.39%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,505, up 0.49%; Gold T + D closed at 917.27, down 0.03%; Silver T + D closed at 11,480, up 0.52% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since March 2024, the medium - level bull market for precious metals has not ended. It is expected that in the next six months and one year, London gold may reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may reach $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. After the significant decline in precious metal prices since late October, some of the adjustment risks have been released. Investors should pay attention to the technical and fundamental signals for re - entering long positions [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Cleveland Fed President Harker believes that high inflation levels are not conducive to the Fed's further rate cuts, and she is concerned that current monetary policy may not be effective in dealing with inflation. - US President Trump admitted that US consumers are paying higher prices due to his tariff policies, although he still claims that the policy benefits Americans overall. - The Bank of England kept its interest rate at 4.0%, but the close vote and signs that Governor Bailey may soon support rate cuts increase the possibility of a rate cut in December after the government's budget announcement. - After the US imposed new sanctions on major Russian oil producers, Indian and Chinese refiners reduced their purchases, leading to the largest discount of Russian oil prices in Asia compared to Brent crude in a year [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's potential rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the accelerating restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide safe - haven demand and liquidity premium for precious metals. However, in the short term, precious metals need to consolidate to digest the previous sharp rise. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach and observe the support level of London gold at $3,800 - $3,850 per ounce [4]. - The upward trend of precious metals since late August may continue until 2026. The six - month and one - year target prices for London gold are $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce respectively, and for London silver are $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. Investors are advised to hold a long - position trading strategy, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. But currently, the price - to - earnings ratio of gold is too high, and long - position investors need to control their positions and be aware of short - term adjustment risks [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Trend**: Optimistic expectations for a trade agreement from the China - US summit and a strong global stock market weakened the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Overnight, London gold dropped to $3,886 per ounce, with a maximum adjustment of 11.3% since October 20th. Subsequently, expectations of a Fed rate cut drove bargain - hunting funds into the market, and London gold rebounded to around $4,000 per ounce during the Asian session on the 29th [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 913.02, up 1.07%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,354, up 2.60%; Gold T + D closed at 910.50, up 1.54%; Silver T + D closed at 11,321, up 2.96% [5]. - **Mid - term Trend**: The US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the rate - cut process, and under the dual influence of Trump's pressure and management changes, the rate - cut amplitude may be larger. The election of Kōmeitō's candidate as the Japanese Prime Minister raises concerns about the return of Abenomics and the re - flooding of yen liquidity. The accelerating restructuring of the global trade and monetary system and high geopolitical risks continue to generate allocation and safe - haven demand for gold. The support levels for London gold are $4,130 and $3,975 per ounce, and for London silver are $50.31 and $47.76 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US consumer confidence dropped to a six - month low of 94.6 in October due to concerns about short - term job opportunities, providing more reasons for the Fed to cut rates on Wednesday. The government shutdown was a major concern [17]. - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced that the company will build seven new supercomputers for the US Department of Energy and has received $500 billion in AI chip orders. NVIDIA has been excluded from the Chinese market and did not apply for US export licenses for the latest chips. It also announced a cooperation with Nokia to enter the AI communication market [17]. - US President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell and mentioned many candidates to replace him. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the final candidates for the Fed Chairman include five people [17]. - The US FCC voted 3 - 0 to strengthen regulations on telecommunications equipment produced by Chinese companies considered a national security risk, banning new equipment containing parts from restricted - list companies from getting authorization and giving the FCC the power to ban the sale of authorized equipment in specific cases [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current round of precious metals upward trend since late August may extend to 2026 due to factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, high geopolitical risks, and the acceleration of the global trade - currency system restructuring. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control their positions and be aware of short - term adjustment risks [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: Sino - US trade tensions show signs of easing, weakening safe - haven demand and pressuring London gold to around $4080 per ounce. But the US federal government shutdown and Fed rate cuts support precious metals. It is necessary to observe whether London gold can stabilize between $3950 - $4050 per ounce. This week, focus on Sino - US trade talks, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed's rate - cut restart. Global trade - currency system restructuring and high geopolitical risks continue to drive gold demand. The upward trend of precious metals since late August may extend to 2026. The six - month and one - year target prices for London gold are $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and for London silver are $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control positions and beware of short - term adjustments. The support levels for London gold are $4130 and $3975 per ounce, and for London silver are $50.31 and $47.76 per ounce [5]. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to precious metals, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, etc., but no specific analysis of these charts is given in the text [6][7][9]. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russian President Putin stated that Moscow will never yield to external pressure and will respond overwhelmingly if its deep - seated targets are attacked. He also said that US and Western sanctions have little impact on Russia's economic well - being [17]. - The EU included two Chinese refineries (Liaoyang Petrochemical and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical) and PetroChina's trading unit (PetroChina Hong Kong) in the sanctions list against Russia, claiming they are major buyers of Russian crude oil. It also sanctioned a Chinese trading company for its role in Russia's sanctions - evasion [17]. - The US is preparing to investigate China's compliance with the trade agreement signed during Trump's first term [17]. - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase oil production by further canceling production cuts if necessary after the US imposed new sanctions on Russian oil giants, expecting demand to shift to the Gulf and Middle East regions [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the accelerated restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide hedging demand and liquidity premiums for precious metals. The current upward trend in precious metals may continue until 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance, while short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. However, short - term adjustment risks should be noted, and heavy - position chasing at current prices is not recommended [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, along with adjustment risks from previous price surges, led to a significant drop in gold and silver prices overnight, followed by a notable rebound in the Asian session. It is necessary to observe whether London gold can stabilize at the $3950 - 4050 per ounce level. Key events to watch this week include the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 954.55, down 4.18%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,415, down 3.41%; Gold T + D closed at 947.30, down 4.01%; Silver T + D closed at 11,377, down 3.25% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to early August, London gold oscillated widely between $3100 - 3500 per ounce to digest high - valuation pressures. Since August, factors such as the Fed's potential rate cuts, the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and geopolitical risks have driven a new round of upward trends in precious metals. London gold soared to $4380 per ounce, and London silver reached a new record high of $54.47 per ounce. Although the upward trend is expected to continue, short - term adjustment risks should be noted [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **US - Russia Relations**: The planned summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin was postponed due to Russia's rejection of the immediate cease - fire proposal in Ukraine. Russia's conditions for a peace agreement with Ukraine conflicted with Trump's current plan [17]. - **EU - China Trade**: The EU Trade Commissioner invited Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao to visit Brussels to address China's tightened rare - earth export restrictions. China hopes the EU will urge the Netherlands to resolve the impasse around Nexperia. Discussions also covered the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles [18]. - **Japan's New Prime Minister's Stance**: Japan's new Prime Minister Takamori Sanae hopes the Bank of Japan's monetary policy can achieve a 2% inflation target in a sustainable manner, accompanied by wage growth [18]. - **Canada - US Steel and Aluminum Trade**: Canadian Prime Minister Carney was cautious about reports of a potential steel and aluminum trade agreement with the US, warning against over - interpretation [19].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term surge in precious metal prices may have ended due to the possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions, but the uptrend may continue until 2026 due to factors like Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach while being aware of short - term adjustment risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions through this week's economic and trade consultations in Malaysia has alleviated market concerns, leading to significant price drops in gold and silver on Friday. The short - term surge may be over, and investors should watch for short - term adjustment risks. However, factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide safe - haven demand and liquidity premiums for precious metals, and the uptrend may last until 2026. This week, key events to monitor include the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to early August, London gold oscillated between $3100 - 3500 per ounce to digest high - valuation pressure. Easing international trade conditions and a strong global stock market weakened safe - haven demand. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed's rate - cut process, and under the Trump administration's pressure, the rate - cut pace may be faster. The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to mid - October, London gold started a new uptrend, soaring to $4380 per ounce, and London silver reached a new record of $54.47 per ounce. The bullish factors will continue to work, but short - term price surges bring adjustment risks, and bullish factors may weaken periodically. Investors are advised to be bullish overall, and short - hedgers can reduce the hedging ratio [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11] 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump pressured the Ukrainian president to give up territory and proposed an agreement based on the current front line, which was accepted by Zelensky [17]. - Trump continued to signal trade - tension easing, and the Trump administration is quietly relaxing tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from so - called reciprocal tariffs and willing to exclude more products when trade agreements are reached [17]. - S&P downgraded France's long - term foreign - currency issuer default rating from "AA -" to "A+", the second downgrade in a year and a half. Fitch had downgraded France's rating in September, and Moody's will announce its latest rating decision on the 24th [17]. - The US and South Korea have made substantial progress in most trade negotiation issues, and the possibility of reaching a trade agreement before the APEC meeting is high [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is more certain that the Fed will restart the interest - rate cut process at the September 17 meeting. The dollar index has fallen to 97.6, and London gold has risen to $3476 per ounce, with silver prices rising by more than 4%. The Fed's interest - rate cut may boost the gold price to break through the resistance and start a new upward trend, which may last until the spring - summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious - metal trading [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut, international trade currency system restructuring, and geopolitical risks may jointly push the gold price to break through the $3500 mark. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price, and may outperform gold in terms of increase due to its high volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading mindset, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metal Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Due to more Fed officials supporting the second - stage interest - rate cut and the US July PCE inflation stabilizing and rising in line with market expectations, the dollar index fell and gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's interest - rate cut may start a new upward trend for gold, and this round of rally may last until the spring - summer of 2026. This week, attention should be paid to global August PMI data, US August employment data, and China's September 3 military parade [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to now, London gold has oscillated widely. Although international trade situation improvement and financial market recovery have weakened gold's safe - haven demand, factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and international trade currency system restructuring support the gold price. The gold price may break through $3500 per ounce, and silver will also rise following gold [5]. 3.2 Precious Metal Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia and China jointly oppose discriminatory sanctions in world trade, and will discuss new prospects and measures for mutually beneficial cooperation during Putin's visit to China [17]. - US consumer spending in July had the largest increase in four months, and service - sector inflation rose. Economists believe that the Fed may still cut interest rates in September [17]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports interest - rate cuts due to risks in the labor market [17]. - The court hearing on Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook ended without an immediate ruling, and Cook will remain in office for now [17]. - The US Court of Appeals ruled that most of Trump's tariffs are illegal, but allowed tariffs to continue until October 14, giving the Trump administration a chance to appeal to the US Supreme Court [18].

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The international trade currency system restructuring and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations continue to support the long - and medium - term bull market of gold, but the high price also means increased volatility. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions [4][6] Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook Intraday Market - Fed Governor Waller supports a September interest rate cut and further cuts in the next six months, and Governor Cook sues Trump. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations push the US dollar index below 98 and London gold above $3400/oz. However, the better - than - expected Q2 GDP revision in the US and stable weekly unemployment data limit the upward momentum of gold prices. The market expects the overall PCE and core PCE in July to increase by 2.6% and 2.9% year - on - year respectively. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500/oz. The easing of international trade and the improvement of financial markets weaken the safe - haven demand for gold, but the restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations continue to support the price. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500/oz in the short term, and the bottom of the price correction has been rising since the end of June. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions [6] II. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold TD, and gold and silver ETF holdings [8][10] III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Q2 GDP growth rate is 3.3% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, higher than the previous report and economists' expectations. Fed Governor Cook sues Trump for the right to remove her. Governor Waller supports an interest - rate cut next month and further cuts in the next three to six months. The ECB policymakers are divided on inflation expectations in July. The EU proposes to cancel import tariffs on US industrial products in exchange for lower US tariffs on European cars. Russian oil exports to India are expected to increase in September [18][19]