外汇储备多元化

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金价突破4000美元,距离下一个关口还有多久?
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-10-09 14:21
受国际金价影响,国内足金饰价格持续上调。10月9日,周大福、周大生足金首饰价格为1168元/克,克价较9月30日上涨45元;周生生足金首饰价格为 1170元/克,克价较9月30日上涨42元。 截至10月8日,COMEX黄金最高触及4081美元/盎司,创下历史新高。 在刚刚结束的国庆中秋假期,黄金上涨再次成为热议话题。 10月8日,国际金价突破4000美元/盎司大关,这距离金价突破3900美元/盎司关口,仅过去了5天。 截至10月8日,COMEX黄金最高触及4081美元/盎司,伦敦现货黄金最高触及4059.31美元/盎司,双双创下历史新高。 尽管9日金价出现波动下调,但整体仍维持在4000美元上方。截至9日17时45分,COMEX黄金报4059.2美元/盎司,跌0.28%;伦敦现货黄金报4036.588美 元/盎司,跌0.09%。 那么,在突破4000美元大关后,黄金距离下一个关口还有多久? 王有鑫认为,未来黄金价格仍主要受全球流动性宽松情况、避险情绪以及央行购金等因素影响,从作用方向看,明年上述因素大概率仍将驱动黄金价格上 涨。 近日,高盛在最新报告中将2026年年底的黄金价格预期从每盎司4300美元上调至每 ...
7月中国减持257亿美债,已是今年第四次减持,释放了什么信号?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 11:21
我国在7月份再次减持美债,这是今年以来的第四次减持,持仓也再创历史新低。 9月18日,美国公布的7月国际资金流动报告显示,我国在当月减持了257亿美元,创2009年以来新低。日本七月则增持美债至1.15万亿美元,仍然是美国国 债最大的海外持有国。 这已经是今年以来我国第四次减持美债,从2022年4月开始,我国的美债持仓就一直低于1万亿美元。鉴于中美关系变化和外储资产配置多元化的趋势,我国 的美国国债持仓未来仍然可能进一步下降。 今年我国美债持仓总体呈现"增减持交替、减持为主"的特征。1月份,我国增持了18亿美债,2月增持了235亿美债,3月减持了189亿美债,4月减持82亿美 债,5月减持9亿美债,6月则小幅增持了1亿美债,7月份则再次大幅减持257亿美债, 从长期趋势来看,自2022年4月我国美债持仓跌破万亿美元后,减持的步伐就一直在持续。 2022年,我国减持了1732亿美元;2023年减持了508亿美元,2024年减持了573亿美元;到了今年前7个月,已经减持了500亿美元。 换句话说,不出意外今年减持美元也可能会突破千亿。 从历史峰值的1.3万亿降至现在的7307亿,我国美债减持幅度已经超过了40%。 ...
央行购金翻倍与ETF狂飙 共塑黄金市场新格局
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-23 06:15
Core Viewpoint - The demand for gold in China, both retail and institutional, is surging to record levels despite global gold prices hovering near historical highs, with spot gold reaching a record of $3759.12 per ounce, doubling since the end of 2022 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary drivers of rising gold prices are aggressive purchases by central banks and strong investment demand, particularly evident in the influx of funds into physical gold ETFs [2][3] - In 2022, global central bank gold purchases exceeded 1000 tons annually, with projections suggesting this could reach approximately 900 tons by 2025, nearly doubling the average of 457 tons from 2016 to 2021 [2][3] Group 2: Investment Trends - Central bank purchases are expected to account for 23% of total gold demand from 2022 to 2025, a figure that is double the average from the 2010s [3] - The demand for gold ETFs saw a significant increase, with a net inflow of 397 tons in the first half of 2025, marking the largest demand since 2020 [3] - As of June 30, total holdings in gold ETFs reached 3615.9 tons, approaching the historical peak of 3915 tons from five years ago [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties, including the impact of U.S. foreign policy and trade wars, have further stimulated market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to provide strong support for gold prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold indicates a potential upward trend, with key resistance levels identified at 3760-3770 and support levels at 3730-3720 [6] - The market is currently showing signs of strength, with expectations of further price increases if certain support levels hold [6]
一个月抛了1829亿元,创16年来新低!美国通告全球:中国大规模减持美债
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 01:35
近期,美国财政部公开了7月的数据, 中国单月减持美债257亿美元,总持仓跌到7307亿美元,创下16年来的新低!算下来,这一个月就 抛了超1829亿人民币的美债。 与此同时,中国央行却在疯狂买黄金,已经连续10个月增持。一边是抛售美元资产,一边是狂囤黄金,中国外汇储备到底在搞什么?这 背后,不仅是资产配置的"乾坤大挪移",更是一场静悄悄的全球金融格局变革。 一、从"抱美元大腿"到"主动减仓",中国为什么突然不买美债了? 过去几十年,中国外汇储备里一大半都是美元资产,尤其是美国国债。为啥?因为当时美元是全球最硬的"硬通货",美债被看作"无风险 资产",买了就能稳稳收利息。但现在不一样了——美国国债规模已经突破34万亿美元,相当于每个美国人欠10万美元,债务利息比军费 还高,根本还不清。更要命的是,美联储一会儿加息、一会儿降息,美债价格坐"过山车",去年就有不少国家因为美债暴跌亏了钱。 中国减持美债,说白了就是"不想把鸡蛋放一个篮子里"。以前外汇储备管理更像"被动保值",现在转向"主动管理":既要安全,又要灵 活,还得抗风险。比如,除了减持美债,中国可能还在增加欧元、日元资产,甚至投资其他国家的优质债券。这种"多 ...
美国债市崩塌,中国A股崛起,减持1829亿美债正悄悄流入这些板块?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 09:07
(来源:财报翻译官) 当全世界还在关注美联储的降息决策时,中国已经悄然完成了一笔大操作。 美国财政部最新数据显示,中国一个月内抛售美债超257亿美元(约1829亿元人民币),持仓量降至 2009年以来新低。 与此同时,中国人民银行连续第10个月增持黄金储备,目前黄金储备已达7402万盎司。 这一系列操作背后,究竟隐藏着怎样的战略意图?又将对A股市场产生哪些影响? 美债减持背后的深层逻辑 中国减持美债并非一时冲动。数据显示,近年来中国一直在稳步推进外汇储备多元化。 这一方面是对美国财政状况的理性回应,另一方面也是基于国际金融环境的深刻研判。 美国国债规模已突破36万亿美元,占GDP比例达123%,远超国际公认的60%警戒线。 巨额债务带来的利息支出压力与日俱增,2025年联邦利息支出预计将达到9280亿美元。 国际评级机构穆迪此前下调美国主权评级,更凸显了市场对美债信用风险的担忧。中国减持美债,可以 说是对潜在风险的提前应对。 黄金增持的战略意义 与减持美债形成鲜明对比的是央行对黄金的持续增持。黄金作为非主权信用储备资产,具有独特的避险 属性,能够有效对冲单一货币风险。 目前中国黄金储备占比仅为7.64%,明显 ...
中国突然抛售1829亿元美债,美国要慌了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 18:33
就在刚刚,美国财政部公布了一份重磅数据:2025年7月,中国一口气减持257亿美元美国国债,持仓规模降至7307亿美元,创下2009年以来新低! 与此同时,中国央行已经连续10个月增持黄金。这一减一增之间,释放出的信号再明确不过:中国正在加速推进外汇储备多元化,主动规避美债风险。 这绝对是对美国经济投下的一张重磅反对票! 中国为何要大幅减持美债?答案显而易见:美国已经成为一个不可靠的债务国。近年来,美国滥用美元霸权,频繁将金融武器化,动不动就冻结他国外汇储 备、实施金融制裁。俄罗斯高达3000亿美元的外汇储备被冻结给全世界上了生动的一课——继续大量持有美债,无异于将金融安全置于他人掌控之下。 美国国债规模如今已突破35万亿美元,且还在飞速增长。两党政治斗争不断,债务上限危机反复上演,美国政府甚至屡次面临"关门"风险。试问,这样一个 财政管理混乱的国家发行的债券,还能算是"安全资产"吗? 中国增持黄金的举动更是意味深长。黄金是自古以来的"硬通货",不依赖任何国家信用,不会被冻结,也不会因某国货币政策贬值。中国连续10个月增持黄 金,正是在为可能到来的国际金融风暴准备"压舱石"。 美国的反应值得玩味。一些美国政客 ...
从狂抛800亿到猛增416亿!一年内,外资对中国债券180度大反转
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 14:26
Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing shifts in global capital markets, particularly the contrasting behaviors of foreign investments in U.S. and Chinese bonds, highlighting a financial battle without direct confrontation [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds - U.S. Treasury yields have reached 5.5%-5.7%, significantly higher than China's three-year government bond yield of 2.35%, attracting global capital to the U.S. [5][6]. - In the first half of 2023, foreign holdings of Chinese government bonds decreased by approximately 80 billion yuan, with some of this capital flowing into U.S. bonds [7][11]. - The U.S. faced a potential debt default in June 2023, which heightened market fears but did not deter capital inflow due to the allure of high yields [10][15]. Group 2: Chinese Bonds - In 2024, foreign net inflows into the Chinese bond market reached 41.6 billion USD, indicating a recovery in global confidence in the Chinese economy [11]. - By the end of 2024, foreign institutions held 4.3983 trillion yuan in Chinese interbank market bonds, reflecting a growing interest despite previous reductions in holdings [11][14]. - The Chinese government is diversifying its foreign exchange reserves and reducing reliance on single assets, which is part of a broader strategy to enhance stability and predictability in its financial markets [14][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the importance of three key factors: interest rates, stability, and expectations, which influence investment decisions in the context of geopolitical risks [14]. - The financial landscape is characterized by a continuous flow of capital, with the potential for shifts in investment strategies as conditions evolve [18][19]. - The future of global capital markets will depend on the ability of economies to maintain resilience and achieve mutual benefits through openness [19][20].
全球央行加速增持黄金储备,95%的央行计划在未来12个月内继续增加黄金储备
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-09-20 04:16
Core Insights - Central banks globally are accelerating their gold reserves, with 95% planning to increase their holdings in the next 12 months [1] - The price of gold has reached a historic high of $3,699 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 40% [1] - There is a significant shift in the global reserve system, with a notable decrease in reliance on dollar assets among central banks [1] Group 1 - The rise in gold prices is driven by geopolitical tensions, high inflation expectations, signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and a weakening dollar [1] - The euro to dollar exchange rate has risen to 1:1.187, nearing its highest level since September 2021 [1] - Nearly three-quarters of central banks expect to reduce their dollar asset allocation, indicating a structural change in reserve management [1] Group 2 - The current pace of gold purchases by central banks is the fastest in decades, reinforcing gold's status as a strategic reserve asset [1] - Analysts link the surge in gold buying to the need for hedging against geopolitical risks, increased volatility in dollar exchange rates, and the long-term value preservation characteristics of gold [1]
还剩7750亿元,中国加速清理美债,马斯克警告:美元或将一文不值
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 10:49
那个时候,美国刚选上特朗普,新政府一上来就想搞美元强势,吸引全球资金回流中国这边自然得调整策略。数据显示,2016年全年中国减持了1880亿美元 的美债,这创下了历史最高抛售纪录。 为什么这么干?主要是为了稳住自家金融市场,避免美元波动传导过来砸锅。外汇储备里美债占比太高,就跟定时炸弹似的,早点清理早点安心。 转眼到2022年,中国美债持有量已经稳稳低于1万亿美元大关。那年4月开始,就没再上过万亿线。美联储加息加得飞起,美元指数蹭蹭上涨,中国外汇管理 局一看,这资金外流的风险得管管。 说起美国国债这事儿,总让人觉得像个大麻烦堆积起来的山。中国手里握着的美债数量一直在变,尤其是从2016年开始,就开始有计划地往外甩卖。 结果呢,2023年3月有过短暂增持,添了203亿美元,但整体还是减持为主。到了2024年1月,又甩掉186亿美元,持仓滑到7977亿美元。 紧接着2月,再减227亿美元,直接降到7750亿美元。这已经是连续第二个月减仓了,接近2023年10月的低点。说白了,中国这几年减持的节奏稳扎稳打,不 是一刀切,而是分批通过二级市场卖出,避免市场大乱子。 这7750亿美元的数字听着挺具体,但放到全球背景里看 ...
美国突发一件大事!79岁特朗普确诊患病,敏感时刻,大国出手抛售280亿美债!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-05 09:42
Group 1 - The health issues of President Trump raise concerns about the leadership's ability to govern effectively, especially in the context of an aging political landscape in the U.S. [3][10] - The recent sale of $28 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds by a major country has brought its holdings to a 16-year low, indicating a significant shift in foreign investment sentiment towards U.S. debt [6][8] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with Moody's downgrading its sovereign credit rating, leading to increased concerns about fiscal stability and rising borrowing costs [8][10] Group 2 - The geopolitical implications of the bond sell-off suggest a strategic move to diversify foreign reserves and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, as countries adjust their asset structures in response to U.S. trade policies [8][10] - The combination of Trump's health issues and the bond sell-off contributes to increased uncertainty in U.S. policies, which may further erode foreign confidence in U.S. Treasury securities [6][9] - The potential for rising interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds, which have surpassed 4.5%, indicates a growing cost of borrowing for the U.S. government, potentially leading to economic challenges [8][9]