Core Viewpoint - The bond market has returned to a weak state, with government bond futures declining across the board and interbank bond yields generally rising by 1-2 basis points, indicating a significant pullback in the long end of the curve [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.37% at 115.300, the 10-year main contract down 0.14% at 108.110, the 5-year main contract down 0.11% at 105.655, and the 2-year main contract down 0.04% at 102.334 [2]. - Interbank yields for major bonds rose, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield increasing by 1.3 basis points to 1.918%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2 basis points to 1.765% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4.77 basis points to 3.466% and the 10-year yield rising by 4 basis points to 4.013% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 4.4 basis points to 1.669% [4]. Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had a bid yield of 1.5549% for 182 days, 1.7285% for 3 years, and 1.7962% for 5 years, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.79, 2.28, and 2.51 respectively [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 189 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 648 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.317% and the 7-day rate up by 0.3 basis points to 1.418% [6]. Economic Indicators - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1% [7]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September, while real estate development investment fell by 13.9% [7]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted a recent recovery in the bond market due to changes in U.S.-China trade tensions and rising market risk aversion, with expectations for continued monetary policy support [9]. - Huatai Fixed Income suggested that while trade tensions may persist, the bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, with a preference for short-term trading strategies [9].

海外利率周报 20251019 由于降息预期和信贷风险事件，美债利率继续下行 2025 年 10 月 19 日 ➢ 宏观经济指标点评 景气指数：费城联储制造业指数显示，10 月份制造业活动放缓，达到 4 月份以 来的最低水平。美国费城联储制造业指数为-12.8，远低于预测值 8.6 与前值 23.2。其中，出货指数由 26.1 急降至 6.0，成为拖累总体活动的主要因素；与 此同时，价格压力再度上行，投入品"支付价格"指数升至 49.2，"售价"指 数升至 26.8，均高于历史均值区间，反映关税传导与库存切换效应正在推升成 本。然而，新订单指数却由 12.4 回升至 18.2，显示终端需求仍具韧性，制造业 当前的疲弱更可能源于生产和发运环节的阶段性扰动，而非需求面的系统性走 弱。截至 10 月 10 日当周，受炼厂进入秋季检修期，开工率显著下滑影响，原 油库存显著上升。美国 EIA 原油库存增加 352.4 万桶，显著高于市场预期的 30 万桶，略低于前值 371.5 万桶。炼油投料较前周骤降 120 万桶/日以及装置利用 率降至 85.7%，加工活动减少导致被动累库。市场对原油需求前景的担忧升温， EIA ...

新华财经北京10月16日电（王菁）债市周四（10月16日）长短券走势有所分化，超长债显著反弹，中短 期现券基本持稳，国债期货主力亦呈现"长强短弱"局面；公开市场单日净回笼3760亿元，资金利率延续 小幅背离走势。 机构认为，9月金融数据依然是"中规中矩"，10月之后社融增速预计进入季节性下行通道，经济基本面 整体呈现需求分化磨底的情形，债市四季度大概率维持区间整理。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘表现分化，30年期主力合约涨0.42%报114.96，10年期主力合约涨0.06%报108.165，5年期 主力合约跌0.01%报105.705，2年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.362。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.8BP报1.931%，10年期国 债"25附息国债11"收益率下行0.35BP报1.755%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行2.3BP报 2.242%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.72%，报478.72点，成交金额635.90亿元。精达转债、松霖转债、振华转债、 恒邦转债、武进转债跌幅居前，分别跌9.99%、8.03%、7.70%、7.46%、 ...

新华财经北京10月15日电（王菁）债市周三（10月15日）小幅走弱，国债期货主力收盘多数下跌，银行 间现券收益率平均回升0.5BP左右，早间通胀数据整体影响甚微；公开市场单日净投放435亿元，资金利 率延续分化、月内品种略走低。 机构认为，年内政策重点或仍在"释放政策效应"，降息落地的可能性不大，降准的概率相对较高，越临 近年底越有宽货币博弈空间。四季度无风险利率大概率维持区间震荡，10年国债利率或在1.65%— 1.80%区间运行。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.14%报114.58，10年期主力合约跌0.06%报108.130，5年期 主力合约跌0.03%报105.73，2年期主力合约持平于102.382。 银行间主要利率债同步小幅走弱，截至发稿，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率上行0.6BP报1.939%，10 年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率上行0.5BP报1.7575%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率上行 0.25BP报2.108%；2年期国债"25附息国债17"收益率持平报1.49%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.49%，报482.17点，成交金额715. ...

新华财经北京10月14日电（王菁）债市周二（10月14日）走势明显反复，早盘延续上日弱势、超长端品 种调整幅度更大，午后期现券相继回暖，收益率曲线下移1BP左右，国债期货主力全线收涨；公开市场 单日净投放910亿元，资金利率月中有所分化。 机构认为，基本面与债市供给转为有利，资金面大概率得以呵护，降息降准、央行购债等有博弈空间， 贸易问题仍存尾部压力，市场避险情绪难以小腿，短期内虽然债市胜率较高，但不宜过度追涨。 【行情跟踪】 国开行2年、5年、10年期金融债中标收益率分别为1.6085%、1.7564%、2.0008%，全场倍数分别为 2.96、4.03、4.94，边际倍数分别为7.25、3.97、5.09。 【资金面】 公开市场方面，央行公告称，10月14日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了910亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率1.40%，投标量910亿元，中标量910亿元。数据显示，当日无逆回购到期，据此就算，单日净投 放910亿元。 国债期货低开高走收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.34%，盘中一度跌0.65%；10年期主力合约涨 0.11%，盘中一度跌0.21%；5年期主力合约涨0.10%，2年期主力 ...

据外媒周二报道，费城联储总裁保尔森上任后的首次公开讲话中表示，美国就业市场面临的风险上升，意味着美联储应进一步降息，而 关税对通胀的推升作用可能不如此前预期的大。保尔森并未明确表示希望美联储如何推进降息，但她指出，"我认为按照美联储上月在 政策会议上发布的预测来放松政策"是未来可能的路径。" 除了市场密切关注贸易紧张局势的发展外，交易员还在期待鲍威尔的讲话，这可能会对未来的货币政策决定提供更多见解。当天晚些时 候，美联储主席鲍威尔定于在费城举行的NABE年会上发表讲话。 国际货币基金组织（IMF)总裁格奥尔基耶娃表示，该组织将继续推动20国集团（G20)主要经济体关注发展中经济体持续存在的债务问 题。她表示，美国关税的影响没有预期那么大，但不确定性仍然很高。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京10月14日电 投资者因贸易紧张局势升温而寻求避险，周一休市结束后的美债市场在周二（14日）获买盘加持，美债收益率 盘前下跌。 上周五，美国政府关门进入第10天，美债收益率继续走低，其中2年期美债收益率跌2.7BPs至3.572%，10年期美债收益率跌4.8BPs至 4.1%，30年期美债收益率跌5.5BPs至4.678%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current tariff upgrade is likely to follow the pattern of April 2025, with smaller market fluctuations. Trump's subsequent remarks have shown signs of moderation, and the market may have a strong learning effect from the previous negotiation model. As a result, market volatility may be lower and the recovery may be faster in this round of trade frictions. In the short term, it strengthens the long - end bullish momentum of US Treasuries [3][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of Market Feedback Patterns in Previous Trade Frictions - **2018.03 - 2018.06: Gradual Recognition Stage at the Beginning of Trade Frictions** - In March 2018, the US announced steel and aluminum tariffs and planned to impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of Chinese goods. Initially, the scope was relatively narrow, and the impact on the global market was not significant. - Over the next three months, as the market recognized the threat of trade frictions, the Chinese equity market was under pressure, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling about 11.45% cumulatively. The bond market strengthened due to risk - aversion sentiment, and the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds declined by about 19bp, showing a "strong bonds, weak stocks" pattern [1][9]. - **2019.05 - 2019.12: Global Resonance Stage with Re - emergence of Conflicts** - In May 2019, Sino - US negotiations broke down, and trade conflicts escalated again after a brief cease - fire. - Against the backdrop of high trade environment uncertainty and the global manufacturing PMI entering the bottom cycle, most global markets were in a "strong bonds, weak stocks" seesaw pattern in the second half of 2019. The yield of 10 - year US Treasuries dropped from 2.45% to around 1.74% within three months [1][12]. - **2025.04: Amplification and Rapid Recovery of Impact from "Reciprocal Tariffs"** - On April 2, 2025, Trump announced the "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a "reciprocal tariff" starting at 10% on all countries. This tariff had an unexpected magnitude and also targeted non - Chinese countries, causing a global impact. - The market reacted quickly. Within five days, major global stock indices fell between 5 - 15%. Funds flocked to "safe - haven" bonds. The yield of 10 - year Japanese Treasury bonds declined by about 32bp within five days, and safe - haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc strengthened. - After several rounds of negotiations, the stock market rebounded significantly, and the market gradually alleviated concerns about tariffs. The trading sentiment became relatively insensitive to marginal changes in tariff policies, reaching a consensus of "high - opening and low - running tariffs." The main stock indices basically recovered to pre - tariff levels, while the bond market showed differentiated performance due to factors such as fundamentals, inflation expectations, and political situations [2][14]. 2. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic Interest Rate Review 2.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Comments - As of the week ending October 3, driven by rising production and increased imports, US EIA crude oil inventories continued to rise after the previous week's rebound. The change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week was 3.715 million barrels, higher than the forecast of 2.25 million barrels and the previous value of 1.792 million barrels. Despite the larger - than - expected increase in inventories, concerns about Russian crude oil supply disruptions and the recovery of US demand boosted market sentiment to some extent, causing oil prices to rise slightly one hour after the data release [18]. 2.2 Review of Main Overseas Market Interest Rates - **US**: Trade frictions may intensify, and US Treasury yields are falling rapidly. This week (October 3 - October 10, 2025), US Treasury yields declined. Trump's tariff threat on Friday led to pressure on the US stock market, with the Nasdaq Index dropping 3.56% in a single day, the largest decline since April. The yield of 10 - year US Treasuries dropped 9bp in a single day, and COMEX gold rose 1.58% to $4035.5 per ounce. As the government shutdown may continue and trade frictions may re - emerge, funds are expected to further flow into the bond market. The recent unexpected increase in short - term debt issuance may imply a reduction in long - term debt issuance in November, which is beneficial for lowering long - end market interest rates [19]. - **Auction Results**: The 3 - year US note auction was neutral to robust, the 10 - year US note auction was weak, and the 30 - year US Treasury auction was relatively robust [22]. - **Europe and Japan**: - **Japan**: Under the expectation of "pro - stimulus" policies, the yield of long - term Japanese bonds is approaching a 17 - year high. The yield of 10 - year Japanese bonds is stable at around 1.70%, close to the highest level since 2008. However, the breakdown of the Japanese ruling coalition on Friday makes the future policy direction uncertain [30]. - **Germany**: German bond yields declined overall this week [30]. 3. Comments on Other Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: Vietnam and Japan reached new highs, while European and American markets generally weakened. Vietnam's VN30 had the strongest performance (+6.51%), followed by Japan's Nikkei 225 (+5.07%). European, American, and Hong Kong markets generally declined. The political turmoil in Paris led to a significant decline in the French stock market, and Trump's threat against China pressured the US stock market [31]. - **Commodities**: Safe - haven precious metals and base metals were strong, while energy, agricultural products were weak, and crypto - assets tumbled. Gold and silver prices rose significantly, driven by risk - aversion demand and a weaker US dollar. Base metals and energy raw materials also generally strengthened. In contrast, Brent crude oil, agricultural products, and Bitcoin declined [32]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The Russian ruble led the gains, and the Japanese yen led the losses. The ruble rose 1.73%, while the yen fell 3.63% due to easing expectations [33]. 4. Market Tracking The report provides data on the changes in bond yields, stock index returns, commodity price changes, and foreign exchange rate fluctuations of major global economies this week, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [39][48][55][59].

新华财经北京10月13日电（王菁）债市周一（10月13日）期现券表现有所分化，国债期货主力全线收 涨，银行间现券买盘却远不及周六调休日，收益率午后明显回升；公开市场单日净投放1378亿元，资金 面平稳偏宽局面不改，央行逆回购投放呵护下，短期流动性预期无忧。 机构认为，四季度债市或震荡修复，利差或逐步压降，加杠杆与哑铃策略依然占优。10月资产供给节奏 放缓，而资金持续宽松，同时叠加基本面数据逐步落地，预计债市将逐步进入修复阶段。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.37%报114.440，10年期主力合约涨0.10%报108.065，5年 期主力合约涨0.03%报105.685，2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.370。 【一级市场】 农发行182天、3年、5年期金融债中标收益率分别为1.6173%、1.7065%、1.7883%，全场倍数分别为 1.79、2.63、3.16，边际倍数分别为1.56、3.3、2.02。 【资金面】 公开市场方面，央行公告称，10月13日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1378亿元7天期逆回购操作， 操作利率1.40%，投标量1378亿元，中标量1378亿元 ...

新华财经北京10月9日电（王菁）国庆长假过后首个交易日（10月9日），债市期现券同步回暖，午后长 端品种表现更趋强势，国债期货主力全线收涨、银行间现券收益率下行1-2BPs；公开市场单日净回笼 14513亿元，月初资金利率普遍显著回落。 机构认为，10月流动性缺口可能季节性走阔，央行节前公告买断式逆回购释放了一定宽松信号，当前收 益率曲线较为平坦，后续或"先牛陡后牛平"的概率更大。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.46%报114.530，10年期主力合约涨0.15%报108.045，5年 期主力合约涨0.07%报105.730，2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.394。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率下行1.25BP报2.117%，10年 期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.65BP报1.956%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率下行1BP报 1.773%。 中证转债指数午盘上涨0.65%，报488.64点。万得可转债等权指数上涨0.70%，报238.03点。豪美转债、 微导转债、精达转债、雪榕转债、科达转债涨幅居前，分别涨13. ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing shifts in global capital markets, particularly the contrasting behaviors of foreign investments in U.S. and Chinese bonds, highlighting a financial battle without direct confrontation [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds - U.S. Treasury yields have reached 5.5%-5.7%, significantly higher than China's three-year government bond yield of 2.35%, attracting global capital to the U.S. [5][6]. - In the first half of 2023, foreign holdings of Chinese government bonds decreased by approximately 80 billion yuan, with some of this capital flowing into U.S. bonds [7][11]. - The U.S. faced a potential debt default in June 2023, which heightened market fears but did not deter capital inflow due to the allure of high yields [10][15]. Group 2: Chinese Bonds - In 2024, foreign net inflows into the Chinese bond market reached 41.6 billion USD, indicating a recovery in global confidence in the Chinese economy [11]. - By the end of 2024, foreign institutions held 4.3983 trillion yuan in Chinese interbank market bonds, reflecting a growing interest despite previous reductions in holdings [11][14]. - The Chinese government is diversifying its foreign exchange reserves and reducing reliance on single assets, which is part of a broader strategy to enhance stability and predictability in its financial markets [14][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the importance of three key factors: interest rates, stability, and expectations, which influence investment decisions in the context of geopolitical risks [14]. - The financial landscape is characterized by a continuous flow of capital, with the potential for shifts in investment strategies as conditions evolve [18][19]. - The future of global capital markets will depend on the ability of economies to maintain resilience and achieve mutual benefits through openness [19][20].