11 月 22 日，为凝聚行业智慧、探寻发展新路径，由南方财经全媒体集团指导、21 世纪经济报道主办的 "第二十届 21 世纪金融年会" 在北京盛大召开。 在主题为"黄金+：从战术工具到战略底仓"的圆桌对话环节，招银理财多资产投资部总经理助理洪晓峰 表示，结合当前黄金新周期的多重积极因素来看，黄金的长期配置价值是"比较确定的事情"。 他指出，为应对未来经济周期变化可能带来的利率温和上行环境，需要在资产组合中引入更多元的风险 对冲工具。"稳金"系列因此在债券与黄金之外，增加了如商品CTA、量化中性策略等另类资产，以增强 组合的稳健性与收益多样性。 而"衡金"系列则引入"全天候"配置理念和风险均衡的量化模型，在债券与黄金基础上纳入股票资产，旨 在实现更全面的长期市场风险暴露。目前，"稳金"系列自2023年推出以来，规模稳步增长；"衡金"系列 作为今年新设产品线，也正逐步获得市场认可，展现出良好的发展潜力。 在讨论黄金市场潜在风险时，洪晓峰则从更中长期视角出发，指出未来需关注AI引领的产业革命对黄 金资产可能带来的影响。 同时他也提到，简单的债券与黄金所构成的"黄金+"资产组合，在经济温和复苏、利率缓步上行之际， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global liquidity, characterized as "shallow liquidity," and its impact on various asset classes, highlighting the volatility and the need for strategic asset allocation in a complex macroeconomic environment [2][7]. Market Trends - In 2025, significant asset price movements were observed, with silver and gold prices increasing by 70% and over 50% respectively, while major stock indices showed mixed performance [3]. - The market is experiencing a "shallow liquidity" scenario where minor adjustments in positions can lead to substantial fluctuations across stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities [3][7]. Investment Strategies - Goldman Sachs Asset Management predicts that complexity will dominate the market, driven by AI innovations, central bank policy divergence, and geopolitical restructuring, suggesting a need for diversified asset allocation [5][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of multi-asset, multi-region, and multi-strategy configurations to navigate the evolving investment landscape [15]. Sector Analysis - The A-share market has seen a shift from high-volatility AI hardware and industrial stocks to defensive sectors, indicating a reallocation of funds in response to global deleveraging and interest rate adjustments [4][16]. - The outlook for gold and precious metals remains strong as they serve as a hedge against economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks, suggesting their role in long-term asset allocation [17]. Fixed Income Insights - The fixed income market is transitioning from a uniform duration strategy to a more nuanced approach, focusing on credit differentiation and duration management in response to global inflation and growth disparities [13]. - Analysts recommend a focus on high-grade bonds and emerging market debt to enhance portfolio resilience and yield stability [18].

在刚刚落幕的第十九届全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛中，选手史志皓凭借多品种、多周期的量化策略 组合崭露头角。 多维组合与系统化执行的胜利 当记者问及得知获奖时的感受，史志皓坦言："第一反应是意外，但更多的是平静。"他将成功归因 于"多维策略的稳定执行和风险控制"。他反复表示，比赛中没有"神来之笔"的交易，最终成绩源于策略 组合的整体表现。"比如在股指和7月爆发的品种上，策略与行情匹配较好，但这些交易都是系统自动执 行的，我没有人为干预。"他进一步解释，关键在于"分散配置"——通过跨品种、跨周期、跨策略的组 合，平滑单一策略可能面临的极端风险。 "今年市场波动较大，单一策略容易失效，而低相关性的多策略组合却能适应不同市场环境。"作为纯量 化交易者，史志皓的策略框架覆盖约70个品种，且不做主观筛选。 但危机也是转机。他通过构建多策略对冲体系应对困境：一方面增加策略维度（如加入期权波动率策 略），另一方面更注重风险预算和绝对风险值评估。"以前追求收益最大化，后来意识到'活下来'才是 第一目标。"他举例，通过计算每笔交易的最大潜在亏损（VaR），动态调整仓位，避免单日回撤超过 可控范围。"这段经历让我从追求收益转向追求 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant presence of small and medium-sized private fund managers in the industry, with nearly 7,200 managers managing under 2 billion yuan, representing over 90% of the total [3] - The focus is on "Rongzhi Investment," which has achieved outstanding performance with its "Rongzhi Baiche Quantitative FOF No. 2," leading the small and beautiful private FOF funds with a remarkable return for the first three quarters [3][4] Company Overview - Shenzhen Rongzhi Private Securities Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd. is a private fund manager focusing on securities investment, emphasizing the growth value of excellent Chinese enterprises [5] - The company has issued over 40 private securities investment fund products since its establishment, managing a cumulative scale exceeding 1.2 billion yuan [9] Investment Philosophy & Strategies - Rongzhi Investment centers its investment philosophy around multi-asset allocation, balanced strategies, and diversified management, aiming to achieve long-term risk-return characteristics [21] - The investment strategy involves dynamic adjustments based on macroeconomic conditions, market valuation levels, and emotional cycles, focusing on selecting managers and strategies with differentiated competitive advantages [22] Core Advantages & Highlights - The company benefits from strong platform support from its parent company, providing extensive financial technology, a vast database, and a professional sales platform [25] - The investment research team consists of experienced professionals with deep market insights and robust risk control capabilities [26] - Rongzhi Investment offers flexible, customized FOF strategies tailored to clients' risk tolerance and needs, emphasizing diversified asset allocation [27] Market Context - The article notes a significant shift in Chinese residents' wealth from real estate and deposits to capital markets, highlighting the growing complexity of investment strategies required in this new landscape [28]

Core Viewpoint - The self-operated business of securities firms has shown significant growth in the first three quarters of this year, driven by a stable bond market and a recovering stock market, with a shift towards a "subjective + quantitative" integration model [2][3][6] Group 1: Performance Overview - The self-operated business of securities firms includes four main segments: fixed income, equity investment, alternative investment, and capital intermediary business, with fixed income being the largest and most stable [3] - In the first three quarters, 37 out of 42 securities firms reported positive growth in self-operated business net income, with a notable performance from leading firms like CITIC Securities, which achieved a net income of 31.603 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.88% [3][4] - Smaller firms also performed well, with Changjiang Securities reporting a net income of 3.044 billion yuan, a staggering year-on-year growth of 289.68% [4] Group 2: Strategic Shifts - The integration of subjective and quantitative strategies is becoming a core competitive advantage for securities firms, moving from a focus on scale to a focus on quality [8][10] - The trend of increasing equity investment and multi-asset allocation is expected to continue, with firms adapting to market conditions through dynamic hedging and diversified asset strategies [6][7] - The introduction of quantitative tools and a unified risk framework is seen as essential for enhancing the sustainability of self-operated businesses [8][9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 15.84% in the first three quarters, with sectors like high-dividend, energy, and electronics performing particularly well, benefiting firms that strategically invested in related ETFs and stocks [6] - The ability to short government bond futures has also contributed significantly to the revenue of securities firms, allowing them to hedge against market fluctuations effectively [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - As the capital market continues to deepen reforms, securities firms are expected to enter a new growth phase, with equity investment remaining a primary focus [6][7] - The shift from a "racehorse" model to a collaborative approach in managing self-operated teams is anticipated to enhance overall performance and risk management [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total scale of bank wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan as of September 30, 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.76% from 30.67 trillion yuan as of June 30, 2025, indicating a continued recovery trend since 2025 [3][4] - The "asset migration" effect has enhanced the attractiveness of the wealth management market, with significant rebounds in product scales observed in the second and third quarters of 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Investment Type Changes - The structure of bank wealth management products has undergone adjustments, with fixed-income products continuing to dominate, growing from 15.30 trillion yuan in July to 16.13 trillion yuan in October 2025, a 5.4% increase [5] - Cash management products saw a significant increase, with a month-on-month growth of 8.8% in September, reaching 6.11 trillion yuan, and further increasing to 6.19 trillion yuan in October [5] - Mixed products showed differentiation, with bond-mixed and flexible allocation products growing by 18.9% and 16.2% respectively in September, although flexible allocation saw a slight decline in October [5] Group 3: Institutional Scale - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten wealth management institutions had a combined scale of 17.57 trillion yuan, with significant head effects, as the top three institutions (Zhaoyin Wealth Management, Xingyin Wealth Management, and Xinyin Wealth Management) each exceeded 2 trillion yuan [8] - The product type distribution among the top institutions shows a preference for fixed-income and cash management products, with Zhaoyin and Xingyin having over 50% in fixed-income allocations [9] Group 4: New Issuance Market Overview - In October 2025, the new issuance scale of bank wealth management products was 506.11 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.5% [15] - The majority of new issuances were medium-term products (3-6 months and 1-3 years), accounting for 88.44% of the total, indicating a preference for liquidity [15][16] Group 5: Performance Tracking - The average performance benchmark for all newly issued products in October 2025 was 2.50%, with a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points, maintaining stability [17] - Fixed-income and pure debt products accounted for 92.29% of new issuances, reflecting a conservative investment approach amid an "asset shortage" environment [21] Group 6: Yield Tracking - The median annualized yield for pure debt products increased with the holding period, with 3-year yields reaching 3.56%, significantly higher than daily open products at 1.65% [31] - Equity products exhibited high volatility, with daily open yields reaching 26.32%, but short-term yields showed negative returns, indicating market fluctuations [31] Group 7: Overall Market Trends - The bank wealth management market in October 2025 displayed characteristics of "steady growth, structural optimization, and concentration among leading institutions," with expectations for further diversification and innovation in product offerings [11][26] - The industry is moving towards a more regulated and diversified development, with a focus on long-term asset management and multi-asset allocation strategies [39]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of macro strategy private equity funds in the current investment landscape, highlighting their ability to dynamically balance multiple asset classes to manage risks and achieve returns in various market conditions [2][16]. Group 1: Characteristics of Macro Strategy Funds - Unlike single-market focused strategies, macro strategy funds operate like "multi-asset aircraft carriers," typically holding three to four core asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies, with some managers extending to U.S. stocks, gold, overseas bonds, and futures [4][5]. - The underlying strategy involves systematic judgment on macroeconomic cycles, liquidity, inflation, and policy expectations, allowing for flexible asset allocation based on market conditions [5][6]. Group 2: Performance Analysis - The correlation analysis of the macro strategy index over the past three years reveals that its returns are primarily linked to risk assets, with a correlation of 0.71 with the A-share index, while showing low or negative correlations with commodities, bonds, and gold [9][12]. - The volatility contribution analysis indicates that stock indices contribute the most to the fund's volatility, while bonds and gold often help to stabilize overall risk during market fluctuations [12]. Group 3: Insights and Implications - The article concludes that volatility should not be viewed as risk but rather as an opportunity, as macro strategy funds can navigate through the asset volatility to seek returns [13][16]. - For investors, macro strategies serve as a long-term allocation tool that can act as a "stabilizer" and "volatility buffer," particularly in uncertain economic cycles, making them suitable as a core satellite investment [16].

Core Viewpoint - The FOF (Fund of Funds) market has experienced a significant rebound in both issuance and existing scale since the fourth quarter, indicating a renewed interest and demand from investors [1][2]. Issuance Trends - The issuance of FOF products has accelerated in the fourth quarter, reaching a total of 227.95 billion yuan, a substantial increase compared to less than 1 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The quarterly issuance trend shows a clear "surge" in the fourth quarter, surpassing the combined issuance of the first three quarters, which were 141.47 billion yuan, 186.04 billion yuan, and 65.32 billion yuan respectively [2]. - Currently, there are 11 FOF products being issued, with 10 being mixed-asset FOFs, indicating a positive outlook on equity assets by fund managers [2]. Fundraising Success - Several newly established FOF products have achieved impressive fundraising results within a short time frame, such as 55.77 billion yuan raised in one day by Huatai-PB Yingtai Stable 3-Month Holding [3]. Existing Scale Recovery - The existing scale of FOF products has risen to 2154.93 billion yuan, with the number of products increasing to 529, marking a recovery above the 2000 billion yuan threshold [4]. - This recovery follows a decline in the previous year due to market adjustments and decreased risk appetite, highlighting a renewed attractiveness of FOFs among institutional and individual investors [4]. Performance and Investor Sentiment - FOF products have shown strong performance this year, with several achieving over 50% returns, and the average and median returns exceeding 10%, significantly better than the previous year [5]. - The mixed-asset FOFs have been particularly favored as they enhance investment returns while controlling risks, appealing to retail investors looking to participate in equity markets [5].

上周，公募FOF的发行引人关注，出现多只"小爆款"新品，募集规模在20亿元左右。今年以来，已经有11只FOF募集规模超过20亿元。 从近期的业绩表现来看，上周股票型FOF业绩欠佳，混合型FOF中有的产品业绩超过3%。 在业内人士看来，当下FOF规模和数量仍有较大发展空间，底层重仓基金应朝着更加多元的方向发展。 多只FOF新品成为"小爆款" 最近一段时间，FOF市场频频出现"小爆款"。 11月12日，富国基金旗下富国智悦稳健90天持有FOF公告成立，募集规模17.93亿元，获5835户有效认购。11月14日，交银施罗德基金公告显示，交银臻享 多资产三个月持有期混合（FOF）成立，募集规模23.67亿元，获9440户有效认购。 Wind统计显示，今年以来成立规模在20亿元以上的FOF已有11只，其中有5只成立于四季度。这一加速或与该类基金的业绩有关，截至今年三季度末，所有 公募FOF基金全部实现年内正收益。 业绩排名第一的FOF产品今年以来收益率近70%，远远超越许多主动权益类明星基金。FOF基金正逐渐摘掉以往风格保守、业绩弹性不足的标签，通过精准 配置行业主题基金，实现了业绩与规模的双增。 据公募排排网统计，在 ...

Core Insights - The recent issuance of public FOFs has garnered attention, with several "small blockbuster" new products raising around 2 billion yuan each, and a total of 11 FOFs exceeding 2 billion yuan in fundraising this year [1][3]. Group 1: Performance and Trends - Last week, stock-type FOFs performed poorly, while some mixed-type FOFs achieved returns exceeding 3% [1]. - As of the end of Q3 this year, all public FOFs have realized positive returns, with the top-performing FOF product yielding nearly 70% year-to-date, significantly outperforming many active equity star funds [3][4]. - The explosive growth of FOFs is notable, with 72 new FOFs launched this year, doubling the 33 launched last year, despite only accounting for 5.22% of the total fund issuance [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent performance of gold and resource-themed funds has positively impacted FOF returns, with the top-performing FOF last week achieving a return of 3.14% [5]. - The majority of FOFs' top 50 holdings at the end of Q3 were bond funds, comprising 31 out of 50, indicating a strong focus on fixed-income assets [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There is significant room for growth in both the scale and number of FOFs, with potential for diversification in underlying heavy-weight funds [2][6]. - FOF investment teams are encouraged to possess cross-market knowledge and capabilities to effectively manage risks associated with multi-asset strategies [6].