证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 俄乌和谈再次启动？ ——国际时政周评 回顾：美国就结束俄乌冲突提出的 28 点新计划；美国芯片政策。 未来一周：地缘冲突；美国内政及关税。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1）美国就结束俄乌冲突提出的 28 点新计划。美对俄原油出口制裁落地， 以及俄乌和谈进程或再次开启，本周布伦特油价下跌 2.8%。特朗普政 府在当前阶段提出和平计划，主要原因及背景包括：1）战场局势方 面，冬季来临，俄罗斯在战场稳步进展而乌克兰面临压力，若此时和 谈，俄方或能满足于当前战果而接受停火，而乌方因战场挫败或能接受 一定妥协。2）当前乌克兰泽连斯基政府因战场形势和政府腐败丑闻受 到巨大压力，特朗普此时推动和谈，本质上是在向乌克兰施压，令其让 步。3）美方对俄原油制裁已落地，在特朗普方面不愿对俄施加更进一 步制裁或军事威胁前提下，推动和谈是可预见的选择。从媒体报道的 28 点计划内容看，该方案有助于改善美俄关系和后续合作，而乌方或 需要较大让步。从媒体披露的内容看，当前方案在多个问题上的立场采 取了俄方的一贯主张，包括领土问题、解除俄罗斯制裁、北约不再扩张 （意味着除了乌克兰，格 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 02 日 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1）中美元首会晤；中美经贸团队通过吉隆坡磋商达成成果共识。此次元首 会晤及经贸谈判成果符合我们预期，即取得框架性成果及短期议题成 果、战略议题实操层面成果。1）框架层面，双方达成延缓部分措施一 年、缓和关系的共识；2）短期议题成果方面，双方就芬太尼关税、扩大 农产品贸易议题取得共识；3）战略议题（出口管制、歧视性收费等）方 面，双方在实操层面（而非原则层面）达成缓和共识，各自暂缓限制及 反制措施一年。双方的成果体现了议题对等性原则。另一方面，此次中 美会晤达成的一年暂缓期，从时间上看将延续至明年美国中期选举前， 正好与特朗普政府在选举前稳定美国经济和市场预期的需求相符。考虑 到美国国内政治干扰，以及本周特朗普与亚洲盟友互动、G7 成立关键矿 产生产联盟等，美国或将利用缓和期以弥补自身产业链漏洞、进一步协 调盟友关系，为下一轮博弈积蓄筹码；建议仍需关注美方政策变化风险 和后续大国科技经贸博弈。 2）特朗普亚洲之行，与日本、韩国等达成贸易投资及关键矿产协议。受美 日、美韩经贸投资协议进展推动，本周日韩市场领涨，本周日经指数上 涨 ...

Economic Developments - The fifth round of China-US trade talks reached a preliminary consensus, with discussions covering various topics including export controls and tariff extensions[8] - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 2.3%, the Nikkei Index increased by 3.6%, and the Korean Composite Index surged by 5.1% in response to positive market expectations[8] Geopolitical Factors - The US and EU imposed new sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a 5.8% increase in Brent crude oil prices, while the Russian RTS index fell by 6.5%[13] - Ongoing challenges in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations include territorial sovereignty, post-war guarantees for Ukraine, and ceasefire timelines, with significant differences remaining between the parties[16] Future Outlook - Attention is focused on upcoming China-US trade talks and high-level interactions, as well as the implications of US domestic politics on government operations and tariffs[18] - The US Supreme Court is set to review the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could impact future trade policies[18] Risks - Potential unexpected changes in US policies and international relations could significantly affect market dynamics[5] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Latin America, may introduce further uncertainties into the global economic landscape[20][21]

Geopolitical Risks - The risk of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing, with Ukraine continuing attacks on Russian energy facilities and Russia limiting diesel and gasoline exports, leading to a 4.2% increase in Brent crude oil prices and a 3.5% rise in ICE diesel prices this week[4] - European countries are expressing readiness to respond to Russian incursions, but internal divisions may affect their actual response capabilities[4] - Trump's recent statements indicate a shift towards supporting Ukraine, although actual U.S. actions regarding increased aid remain unclear[4] Middle East Developments - Trump assured Arab and Islamic leaders that the U.S. would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank, proposing a peace plan for Gaza[4] - Ongoing Israeli military actions in Gaza have raised concerns among Arab nations about potential regional conflict escalation[4] U.S. Tariff Policies - Starting October 1, the U.S. will impose new tariffs: 100% on imported brand or patented drugs, 50% on kitchen and bathroom cabinets, 30% on soft furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks produced outside the U.S.[4] - The Trump administration continues to push for tariffs as a tool for trade negotiations, despite facing judicial challenges regarding the legality of these tariffs[4] Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.2% this week, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.1%[6] - Brent crude oil prices reached $68.82 per barrel, reflecting a 4.2% increase, while ICE diesel prices hit $714.25 per ton, up 3.5%[6] Future Outlook - Continued monitoring of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is essential, particularly regarding potential dialogue signals from Russia amid U.S. pressure[18] - The U.S. government faces a potential shutdown if a temporary budget is not passed by September 30, 2024[21] - The expiration of the Iran nuclear agreement and UN Resolution 2231 on October 18 will be critical to watch, as it may impact ongoing negotiations[20]

Geopolitical Conflicts - The escalation of the Middle East conflict led to a 1.8% increase in Brent crude oil prices, despite concerns over oversupply and weak demand[4] - Israel's airstrike on Qatar was described as a "precision strike" against Hamas leaders, with potential implications for U.S.-Qatar relations[10] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict saw Poland shoot down a drone allegedly from Russia, raising tensions in the region[15] U.S.-China Trade Relations - The fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks is scheduled from September 14-17 in Spain, focusing on unilateral tariffs and export controls[17] - The U.S. Commerce Department added several Chinese entities to the export control "entity list," indicating ongoing trade tensions[17] - Trump's administration is pressuring the EU and NATO to impose significant tariffs (50-100%) on Russian oil buyers, contingent on their cooperation[16] Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.5% this week, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 2.6%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a 1.0% increase, and the S&P 500 rose by 1.6%[6] - Brent crude oil is currently priced at $66.88 per barrel, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine[6] Federal Reserve and Tariff Issues - The U.S. Supreme Court will expedite the review of the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with oral arguments scheduled for early November[22] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with a court ruling temporarily blocking the dismissal of a Fed official[22] - Ongoing investigations into tariffs on various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, are expected to influence future trade negotiations[22]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 07 日 关注多国国内政治不确定性 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：上合组织峰会；中国人民抗日战争胜利纪念日；乌克兰战后安全保 障进展；美国关税进展；日本首相辞职。 未来一周：法国国民议会投票；美国国内政治及关税政策；地缘冲突。 | | | | 国际时政日历 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | | 9/1 | 9/2 | 9/3 | ald | વીર્ટ | ale | 9/7 | | 上合组织峰会于天津 | | 中国人民抗日战争胜 | 当地时间9月4日欧洲 | 当地时间9月4日特朗 | 特朗普此前威胁的俄 | 日本首相石破茂宣布 | | | | 利纪念日 | 国家会晤于法国,26 | 普签令履行美日关税 | 乌直接会晤截止期 | 辞去自民党总裁职务 | | | | | 国承诺将"在停火或 | 协议 | | | | | | | 和平协议框架下"向 | | | | | | | | 乌克兰部署军队 | | ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 08 月 24 日 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1）俄乌冲突：美国、乌克兰、欧洲多国及欧盟、北约领导人会晤于华盛 顿，讨论俄乌冲突问题；特朗普威胁若俄乌两周内未直接会晤，可能施 加"大规模制裁或关税"。在俄乌和谈不确定性持续的情况下，本周俄 罗斯 RTS 指数下跌 4.7%，布伦特油价上涨 1.7%。两周后若未取得突破 性进展，美国是否会对俄新一轮制裁，或取决于俄罗斯是否能让特朗普 相信俄方已有充分谈判诚意。和谈中乌克兰的安全保障议题或对世界影 响更深远，不仅牵涉到俄乌，更涉及俄美关系、美欧关系、俄欧关系， 是一种战后秩序的重新确立。 2）美国关税：美国与欧盟发表联合声明双方已就贸易协定框架达成一致； 加拿大宣布取消多项针对美国的报复性关税。 ❑ 未来一周关注： 1）8 月 31 日-9 月 1 日上合组织峰会，国家主席习近平将出席。 2）俄乌冲突：关注俄乌和谈进展，短期"边打边谈"或将持续。关注俄美 后续互动及大国关系变化。 3）美国关税：在美俄缓和情况下，关注美国与印度贸易 ...

Group 1: US-Russia Relations - The US-Russia summit in Alaska on August 15 resulted in progress but no formal agreement, with Trump temporarily suspending further sanctions against Russia[4] - The Russian RTS index rose by 10.7% in August, reflecting positive market sentiment following the summit[8] - The significance of the summit may outweigh the lack of a peace agreement, indicating a potential diplomatic victory for Russia[11] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - On August 12, the US and China announced a 90-day suspension of mutual 24% tariffs[12] - The US expanded the scope of 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, effective August 18, with potential semiconductor tariffs reaching 300% in the coming weeks[12] - Japanese and Vietnamese markets saw gains of 3.7% and 2.8% respectively, as tariff uncertainties decreased[14] Group 3: Future Outlook - Upcoming discussions between the US, Ukraine, and Europe will focus on a ceasefire timeline and security guarantees for Ukraine[17] - The US is expected to continue negotiations with India, Mexico, Canada, and Brazil regarding tariffs and trade agreements[18] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, may influence US foreign policy and trade strategies[20]

Group 1: US Tariff Policies - Trump announced a delay in the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1, with tariffs on imports from 14 countries ranging from 25% to 40%[8] - A 50% tariff on imported copper and a potential high tariff on pharmaceuticals were threatened, with a 35% tariff on Canadian goods also announced[8] - Countries facing tariffs may see comprehensive tariffs of 15% to 20% if they have not yet received tariff notifications[8] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Trump approved additional defensive weapon shipments to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia, indicating a shift to a tougher stance on unresolved issues[4] - The EU's Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the need for economic rebalancing and "de-risking" in relations with China, highlighting a strategic shift in European diplomacy[14] - The upcoming August 1 deadline for trade negotiations may lead to a framework agreement, despite existing tensions and differing national interests among negotiating countries[12] Group 3: Market Implications - The ongoing high tariffs may serve as a tool to accelerate trade negotiations, but the long-term risks of these policies remain significant[12] - The US is focusing on strategic supply chains, with ongoing investigations into sectors like copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors under Section 232[17] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with potential for increased cooperation among non-US regions as they respond to US tariff pressures[16]

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, while Vietnam maintains zero tariffs on U.S. goods[9] - New unilateral tariffs may range from 10% to 70%, with implementation expected around August 1[6] - The U.S. is conducting a 232 investigation into sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which began in April, indicating potential short-term tariff risks[15] Group 2: Political Developments - Trump's position within the Republican Party has strengthened following a series of political successes since June, including the signing of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill[6] - The U.S. Supreme Court has supported Trump's executive powers, allowing him to pursue his policy agenda without significant judicial challenges[13] - The upcoming G20 finance ministers' meeting and the BRICS+ summit are critical events to monitor for international economic discussions[3] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions include the Israel-Palestine conflict and U.S.-Iran negotiations, with a focus on potential ceasefire outcomes and nuclear discussions[16] - The U.S. aims to rebalance its relations with major powers, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which presents significant negotiation challenges[18] - The potential for a framework agreement in trade negotiations exists, but countries may shift conflicts to third parties to achieve short-term wins[12]