大摩认为，美联储货币政策和流动性紧缩引发的美股短期波动，恰恰为多头提供了加仓机会。 追风交易台消息，11月24日摩根士丹利Michael J Wilson的研究团队在最新报告中指出，尽管标普500指数层面 回撤仅5%，但市值前1000大公司中三分之二已回撤超10%，显示市场内部调整已较为充分。 首先，高动能股对流动性收紧更为敏感，在美国财政总账户（TGA）于10月15日开始显著上 升后便已见顶； 其次，以标普500和纳斯达克100为代表的高质量指数，则对美联储在10月29日联邦公开市场 委员会（FOMC）会议上传递的鹰派信号反应更剧烈。 （标准指数在10 了10%以上的跌幅） （三分之二的股票出现 研报指出，美股动量股在10月15日见顶，当时财政部TGA账户因政美国府停摆而显著上升。标普500指数则在 10月29日美联储会议当天见顶，鲍威尔当时表示12月降息"远非板上钉钉"。 摩根士丹利认为，虽然短期内货币政策相关风险可能持续，但美股大幅调整已接近尾声。分析师维持对美股未 来12个月的看涨立场，重点推荐消费品、医疗保健、金融、工业板块和小盘股。 指数"风平浪静"，个股"血流成河" 大摩指出，近期美股市场表面看 ...

来源：市场资讯 11月10日，美联储一位高级官员警告称，美国贫困群体日益加剧的困境，正使这个全球最重要的经济体 面临衰退风险。此番言论凸显出美联储决策者在考虑是否于12月再次降息时面临的"平衡难题"。纽约联 储主席威廉姆斯指出，数据及与社区领袖的对话均表明，许多贫困家庭正承受着支付能力危机。"大量 证据显示……中低收入家庭正从支付能力角度面临诸多制约，"威廉姆斯对《金融时报》表示，"包括生 活成本、住房开支，以及许多家庭基本靠按月薪度日的现状。"与此同时，更富裕的美国人正因股市"飙 升至历史高位附近"而获益。随着美国就业市场降温，威廉姆斯暗示，他所谓的美国家庭"分化"行为， 可能成为影响其是否支持美联储在12月降息的关键因素——他将这一投票形容为"平衡术"。 另外，根据加拿大统计局上周五公布的数据，10月净新增就业岗位66，000个，失业率意外从7.1%降至 6.9%，连续第二个月录得改善。 这一结果显著强于市场预期。根据蒙特利尔银行整理的经济学家一致 预期，市场原本预计10月将减少20，000个岗位，失业率将升至 7.2%。 数据显示，10月的新增就业主 要来自兼职岗位，全职岗位变化不大。私营部门就业增加7 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a strong rebound in private sector employment, with an average of 14,250 new jobs added weekly over the past four weeks, contrasting with negative growth in September [1][2] - The data is based on a collaboration between ADP and Stanford Digital Economy Lab, utilizing weekly salary records from over 26 million private sector employees [1] - ADP's Chief Economist, Nela Richardson, emphasizes that the near real-time employment data will provide clearer insights into the labor market during this critical economic period [1] Group 2 - The weekly addition of 14,250 jobs translates to an average monthly employment growth of approximately 55,000 jobs, a significant improvement compared to a decrease of 32,000 jobs reported in September's National Employment Report (NER) [2] - ADP plans to continue releasing a final monthly estimate, with the next NER scheduled for November 5, 2025, at 8:15 AM Eastern Time [2] - The next preliminary estimate for private sector weekly employment will be published on November 11 at 8:15 AM [2]

Core Viewpoint - The government shutdown has led to a reliance on private sector data to fill the gap left by the absence of government data, but there are significant limitations to this approach. Group 1: Government Data vs. Private Sector Data - Government data is considered the highest quality and serves as a benchmark for policy-making, with concerns about the reliability of private sector data due to its self-selecting nature and potential for bias [5][6][4] - Private sector data sources often aim to approximate government data, but they are not sufficient replacements, as they lack the comprehensive nature and reliability that government data provides [6][8] - The government is the only entity capable of providing a complete picture of the labor market, especially in light of historic lows in immigration, which complicates the understanding of job growth [7][4] Group 2: Current Job Market Insights - Recent private sector reports indicate soft job growth, with specific data showing a decline in job creation, such as ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs and the Conference Board employment trend index down by 0.7%, the lowest since early 2021 [6][7] - The NFIB reported a slight increase in the percentage of owners planning to hire, but this is from historically low levels, indicating a cautious outlook on job creation [6] Group 3: Limitations and Future Considerations - There is an acknowledgment that while private companies like ADP are making efforts to provide timely data, they cannot fully replace the public good that government data represents [14][6] - The potential for private sector data to improve through new data science techniques exists, but the fundamental need for government data remains critical [12][13]

Group 1 - The silver market is currently experiencing a strong bullish trend, with spot silver prices reaching a 14-year high of over $46, marking a 1.96% increase on the day and over 30% growth in the past six months [1] - Upcoming economic data releases in the U.S., including non-farm payrolls and employment indicators, will significantly influence market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - The silver price has broken through the $45 level and is targeting the $46.60 area, with the overall price trend remaining bullish despite nearing overbought conditions [4] Group 2 - The employment market indicators, including initial and continuing jobless claims, will provide insights into the current state of the U.S. job market, which is a key consideration for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [3] - If the non-farm payroll data shows continued weakness, it could increase the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, which would be supportive for silver prices [3] - The silver market's strong performance may lead to a potential price target of $50, with any pullbacks seen as strong buying opportunities [4]

Policy Background and Core Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations showed significant volatility, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 84% to 68% due to multiple factors, including diverging views among policymakers, mixed economic data, and external uncertainties [1][3]. Diverging Views Among Federal Reserve Officials - Dovish voices, such as Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, support three rate cuts within the year and urge for a September cut, arguing that tariff-driven inflation will not persist [3]. - Hawkish perspectives, represented by Atlanta Fed President Bostic, suggest only one more rate cut this year, emphasizing the need for more data [3]. Mixed Economic Data Signals - Inflation data showed mild results, with July CPI and core PCE data indicating resilience in service inflation and housing costs, raising concerns among officials about potential inflation rebounds [9]. - The labor market remains strong with low unemployment, but early indicators like reduced temporary hiring and shortened work hours suggest possible weakening [9]. - Retail sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month in July, indicating consumer resilience, although consumer confidence has declined due to inflation and unemployment concerns [9]. - Industrial production fell by 0.1% month-over-month in July, reflecting limited supply-side pressures but revealing weakening demand and trade policy impacts [9]. Market Predictions and Probability Changes - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 84% to 68%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 32% [9]. - For October, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 48.8%, and for a 50 basis point cut, it is 51.5% [9]. - The decline in probabilities is attributed to hawkish statements from officials and concerns over resilient inflation, alongside uncertainties in the labor market and declining consumer confidence [9]. External Environment and Policy Challenges - The global economic environment is characterized by weak growth in Europe, geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Russia-Ukraine situation), and fluctuations in energy prices affecting the U.S. economic outlook [12]. - A strong dollar is suppressing export competitiveness but helps to mitigate import inflation [12]. - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing a "higher for longer" interest rate policy with the goal of achieving a soft landing for the economy, with internal disagreements on the timing of rate cuts [12]. Conclusion and Future Outlook - The drop in September rate cut probability to 68% reflects mixed economic signals and diverging views among policymakers, with the market still anticipating rate cuts but requiring further data validation regarding timing and magnitude [15]. - Key observation points include upcoming CPI and PCE data for August, which could influence rate cut probabilities if inflation continues to ease [15]. - Labor market data will be critical; a significant rise in unemployment or a slowdown in hiring plans could prompt rate cuts [16]. - Statements from Powell and other policy signals during the global central bank meeting in August will provide important insights [16].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that ADP reported an increase of 104,000 private sector jobs in July, indicating a positive trend in employment growth [1] - Additionally, wages in the private sector experienced a year-over-year growth of 4.4%, reflecting an upward movement in compensation for workers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials are expected to continue implementing interest rate cuts, but are not ready to take action in the upcoming meeting [1][3] Group 1: Divergence Among Officials - Officials are divided on two main aspects: the economic evidence needed to support rate cuts and whether waiting for clarity is a mistake [3][4] - There are three camps among officials regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, reflecting differing judgments on the economic situation [4][5] Group 2: Evidence for Rate Cuts - Some officials focus on labor market data, suggesting rate cuts should occur only with sustained signs of weakness, such as rising unemployment and reduced job creation [4] - Others prioritize inflation data, advocating for cuts if inflation remains below target without signs of recovery [4] - A third group considers multiple economic indicators, supporting cuts only when they collectively indicate weak growth [4] Group 3: Timing and Risks of Rate Cuts - The debate on whether to wait for clearer signs reflects differing views on the timeliness of monetary policy, with some officials advocating for preemptive action to avoid deeper economic downturns [4][5] - Conversely, a cautious faction believes that premature cuts could lead to resource misallocation and inflation rebound, preferring to wait for more evidence [4][5] Group 4: Impact of Federal Reserve Decisions - The statements from Chairman Powell during the press conference will be crucial, as hints of potential rate cuts could boost market confidence and lead to positive reactions in financial markets [5] - Historical adjustments in Fed policy significantly impact global financial markets, influencing the dollar's strength and capital flows to emerging markets [5] Group 5: External Economic Factors - Global economic uncertainties, such as trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, are also considered by Fed officials when contemplating rate cuts [6]

Core Viewpoint - The latest employment market data is described as "still okay" by Federal Reserve Governor Waller, indicating a stable labor market despite ongoing economic challenges [1] Employment Market Analysis - The employment market continues to show resilience, with recent data suggesting that job growth remains steady [1] - Waller's comments reflect a cautious optimism regarding the labor market's ability to withstand economic pressures [1]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose on Wednesday due to investors digesting weak employment data and weighing the impact of President Trump's tax and spending plan [1][3] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, contrasting with economists' expectations of an increase of 100,000 jobs [3] - The Senate passed Trump's major bill with a narrow margin of 51 to 50 votes, which is expected to increase the fiscal deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [3] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 0.6 basis points to 3.783%, the 10-year yield rose by 5.1 basis points to 4.3%, and the 30-year yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.84% [1] - In the European market, 10-year German bonds rose by 5.8 basis points to 2.625%, Italian bonds increased by 8.6 basis points to 3.555%, and French bonds rose by 8.1 basis points to 3.328% [5] - The UK bond market saw significant increases, with the 10-year yield jumping over 20 basis points to 4.67%, reflecting concerns over government spending plans [5]