【冠通期货研究报告】 现货成交氛围偏弱 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 31 日 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1627 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，日内冲高回落， 尾盘收跌，最终收于 1625 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅-0.43%，持仓量 264103 手（-6006 手）。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-1287 手，空头-1220 手。其中，东海期货净多单+628 手、方正中期净多单+6154 手；国泰君安净空单 -790 手，东证期货净空单-1753 手。 2025 年 10 月 31 日，尿素仓单数量 1455 张，环比上个交易日+1455 张，其 中安卅物流（四川农资 UR）+230 张，安阳万庄（四川农资 UR）+75 张，眉山邦 力达（四川农资 UR）+400 张，安徽中能+700 张。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：现货成交 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Industry Chain Weekly Report [1][2] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Cost support and the recovery of agricultural demand drive a short - term rebound, but high inventory and supply surplus suppress the upside space. The fundamentals of urea maintain a pattern of oscillatingly strong but with limited height [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals - Raw material thermal coal prices continue to rise, raising the urea cost line. Some gas - based enterprises are under maintenance due to losses, increasing the expectation of supply - side contraction [4] - The improvement in weather promotes wheat sowing, increasing the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing. The compound fertilizer operating rate increases by 3.53% month - on - month, with short - term demand improvement [4] - Enterprise inventory reaches 1.6154 million tons, a record high. Rainfall in the north slows down shipments, and the pressure of inventory accumulation remains unsolved [4] - Daily production remains at a high level of 196,200 tons. Previously maintained devices are gradually resuming production, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues [4] Urea Fundamental Data - Multiple data charts are presented, including China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, urea futures main contract positions and trading volume, urea warehouse receipt quantity and effective forecasts, market prices and basis of small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, price differences between large and small - sized urea, seasonal price differences between different contract months, production costs and profits of different urea production methods, production enterprise's pending order days, capacity utilization rates of urea and compound fertilizer, compound fertilizer inventory, production costs and gross profits of compound fertilizer in Shandong, FOB prices of urea in the Middle East and China, thermal coal spot prices, and thermal coal port inventory [7][10][17][40][45]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1740 | -20 | 01合约 | 1664 | - 5 | 仓 单 | 7211 | -30 | | 山东现货 | 1740 | -20 | 基 差 | 7 6 | -15 | UR综合库存 | 152 5 . | 10 4 . | | 河南现货 | 1750 | - 2 | UR01 | 1664 | - 5 | UR厂家库存 | 102 4 . | 6 6 . | | FOB中国 | 3186 | | UR05 | 1715 | - 5 | UR港口库存 | 50 1 . | 3 7 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、国际价格偏强 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 数 | | 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1720 | -10 | 01合约 | 1661 | - 9 | 仓 单 | 7810 | | -378 | | 山东现货 | 1720 | -10 | 基 差 | 5 9 | - 1 | UR综合库存 137 | . | 1 | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1730 | 0 | UR01 | 1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、国际价格偏强 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 | 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1810 | 0 | 01合约 | 1737 | 1 1 | 仓 单 | 3573 | | -250 | | 山东现货 | 1820 | 0 | 基 差 | 7 3 | -11 | UR综合库存 | 145 . | 9 | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1810 | 0 | UR01 | 1737 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、国际价格偏强 • 2、政策带动原料端偏强 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1820 | 0 | 09合约 | 1742 | - 2 | 仓 单 | 2900 | 0 | | 山东现货 | 1820 | 0 | 基 差 | 7 8 | 2 | UR综合库存 | 143 1 . | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1820 | 0 | UR01 | 1770 | 0 | UR厂家库存 | 113 6 . | 0 0 . | | FOB中国 | 2680 | | UR05 | 1802 | 5 | UR港口库存 | 29 5 . ...

尿素基本面分析：中国尿素价格延续跌势，生产商们仍在为6月出口做准备，并预计指导价可能环比下 跌至…… 期货盯盘神器专属文章 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent urea futures market has rebounded and is now in a volatile state. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with the UR2509 contract basis indicating a slight positive trend, while the UR comprehensive inventory shows a negative sign. The main contract's 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it, with the main position being net long and increasing. It is expected that the urea main contract will show a short - term rebound, with high daily production, a short - term decline in inventory, improving agricultural demand, and stable prices after the export policy is implemented. The report predicts that the urea market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has rebounded and is volatile. Supply - side: The operating rate and daily production are at a high level, and new facilities have been put into operation recently, with a rapid short - term decline in inventory. Demand - side: In industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly declined, and compound fertilizer inventories have increased, while the operating rate of melamine has rapidly increased, and agricultural demand is gradually improving. The international urea price is strong, and export profits are high but restricted by export policies. After the export policy was announced on May 15 - 16, the urea price has stabilized after a sharp increase around May Day. The spot price of the delivery product is 1890 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 13, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, indicating a positive trend [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 950,000 tons (-248,000), indicating a negative trend [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a positive trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main UR position is net long and increasing, indicating a positive trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to rebound in the short term. With high daily production, a short - term decline in inventory, improving agricultural demand, and stable prices after the export policy is implemented, the UR market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factors include the implementation of the export policy and the gradual improvement of agricultural demand; negative factors include high daily production and the commissioning of new facilities. The main logic is the high daily production on the supply side and the marginal changes in demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1890 | 0 | 09 Contract | 1877 | 0 | Warehouse Receipts | 7355 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1890 | 0 | Basis | 13 | 0 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 95 | 0 | | Henan Spot | 1910 | 0 | UR01 | 1788 | 0 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 81.7 | 0 | | FOB China | 2562 | - | UR05 | 1849 | 0 | UR Port Inventory | 13.3 | 0 | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1877 | 0 | - | - | - | [6] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-5-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：节前尿素盘面受消息面影响大幅反弹。供应方面，开工率仍在高位且有新产能投 产，日产预计将维持高位，库存高位回落后再次快速累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工明显 回落，复合肥库存累库，有复合肥企业转售尿素原料，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入弱势。 尿素出口政策目前仍未有确切放开消息。交割品现货1900（+0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差14，升贴水比例0.7%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存131万吨（+12.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-5-8 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：节前尿素盘面受消息面影响大幅反弹。供应方面，开工率仍在高位且有新产能投 产，日产预计将维持高位，库存高位回落后再次快速累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工明显 回落，复合肥库存累库，有复合肥企业转售尿素原料，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入弱势。 尿素出口政策目前仍未有确切放开消息。交割品现货1900（+10），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差19，升贴水比例1.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存131万吨（+12.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，翻多，偏多； • ...