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常规关门还是经济风险?专家警告:特朗普政府举措或引发连锁反应
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-02 22:49
股市现在还在高位,仿佛什么都没发生,但我总觉得这里面埋着雷。原因很简单,这次美国可能遇上的政府关门,跟以往不一样。 过去的关门,总归是闹腾几天、最多几周,联邦雇员休个假、游客受点影响、企业耽误点事,然后政府一开门,该上班的上班,该发的钱全补上,经济就像 重启电脑一样恢复运行。1976年以来,标准普尔500在关门期平均还能稳住,2018年底那次35天的史上最长关门,美股甚至在关门前涨了10%。 但2025年的情况不太妙。 特朗普政府放话,不排除在关门期间 直接裁掉数十万联邦雇员 。这就不是请你暂时回家休息,而是告诉你,工作没了、工资没了、别等了。这种做法在历史上是没出现过的,一旦动真格,美国经济会被打个措手不及。 斯蒂芬妮·罗斯,沃尔夫研究的首席经济学家,说得很直白, 裁员会引发严重经济问题,而且中期内很难修复 。联邦雇员不只是政府里的螺丝钉,他们的收入和消费信心撑着很多地方的经济。一旦不稳,就会传导到各个行业,拖着本就脆弱的经济基本面继续下滑。 更糟的是,这种关门还可能让经济变成瞎子摸路。因为很多关键数据没人收集、没人发布,市场就会陷入信息真空。比如劳工统计局原定10月3日发布的9月 就业报告,如果关门持续, ...
盾博:特朗普炒掉鲍威尔风波,法律红灯高悬,市场为何仍心惊?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 09:44
你被解雇了!这句特朗普在真人秀《学徒》中的招牌台词,如今被做成AI卡通图,于9月27日凌晨出现 在他自己的TruthSocial账号。图中,他手指美联储主席鲍威尔,后者抱着纸箱,背景是美联储官方印 章。一张看似玩笑的图片,却把2026年5月才到期的鲍威尔任期,再次推到政治火山口。 尽管美联储本月刚刚启动四年多来首次降息,并暗示10月与12月可能继续放松,特朗普仍嫌太慢,嘲讽 鲍威尔是太迟先生。 过去两周,他至少五次公开指责美联储无能,拖累经济。法律界人士提醒,总统无权随意罢免美联储主 席。 最高法院今夏刚在汉弗莱案重申,独立机构领导人需有正当理由方可被撤。换句话说,只要鲍威尔本人 不辞职,特朗普的炒鱿鱼只能停留在表情包层面。 但市场不敢只当段子看。2018年鲍威尔遭特朗普密集炮轰时,美股波动率一度飙升;如今距离大选仅四 十天,任何央行独立性受损的风吹草动,都可能被交易员放大。摩根大通测算,若真出现非正常解职, 10年期美债收益率或瞬间跳升15—20个基点,相当于美联储多加息一次。原因在于:一旦投资者怀疑货 币政策将替白宫印选票,通胀预期就会抬头,长期利率反而更高,恰好违背特朗普低利率刺激楼市的初 衷。 更微妙 ...
每经热评|“9·24”行情一周年:118个“万亿日”激活市场 守护信心需多方共同发力
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-23 15:47
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant recovery and transformation of the capital market over the past year, driven by increased investor confidence and active participation from both individual and institutional investors [1][2][3][4][5] - The A-share market has seen a remarkable increase in trading volume, with daily turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan for 29 consecutive trading days and over 1 trillion yuan for 118 consecutive trading days, indicating a strong market sentiment [1] - The total market capitalization of the semiconductor sector has surpassed traditional industries like finance and real estate, establishing itself as a core force in the A-share market [1][3] Group 2 - The establishment of market confidence is supported by four key conditions: a solid institutional foundation, coordinated policy efforts, market dynamism through mechanism innovation, and maintaining fairness in the market environment [2][3][4][5] - The introduction of new regulations and policies, such as the "National Nine Articles" and over 60 supporting rules, has laid a robust regulatory framework for the long-term development of the capital market [3] - Recent measures, including customized monetary policy tools and special government bonds, have provided direct support to the capital market, enhancing the overall economic environment [3][4] Group 3 - Mechanism innovations, such as the "Science and Technology Innovation Board" reforms, have facilitated the listing of unprofitable tech companies, promoting market activity and investment opportunities [4] - The regulatory environment has been strengthened to ensure fairness, with significant penalties for financial fraud, thereby enhancing investor protection and confidence [5] - The ongoing efforts to maintain market confidence are crucial for the long-term stability and healthy operation of the capital market, despite potential fluctuations [5]
“9·24”行情一周年:118个“万亿日”激活市场 守护信心需多方共同发力
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-23 13:28
二是凝聚政策合力,以协同举措优化信心环境。资本市场并非独立运行的体系,宏观经济走势、金融政 策松紧、财政政策导向、产业政策调整,都是影响其运行的关键变量。近一年来,各类政策协同发力, 为市场信心注入强大支撑:在宏观层面,政策制定始终注重"增强取向一致性",通过强化协同提升实施 效果,谨慎出台收缩性、抑制性举措,确保各类政策相互衔接、有机统一,共同推动经济社会持续健康 发展;在具体举措上,央行推出"定制化"货币政策工具,为上市公司回购、股东增持提供低成本融资支 持;财政部发行特别国债,着力化解地方债务、清理企业欠款;监管层引入国有商业保险公司长周期考 核制度,中央汇金公司更首次明确类"平准基金"定位。这些措施既直接为资本市场"输血",也为其创造 了稳定向好的外部环境。 资本市场的一系列积极变化,本质上是市场信心的全面提振。具体而言,个人投资者有信心,便会积极 入市、主动交易;投资机构有信心,便会主动布局、长期持有;上市公司有信心,则会主动拓展——无 论是扩大投资、出海融资展业,还是推进并购重组,企业活力的提升都为市场后续增长打开了想象空 间。 而市场信心的建立,离不开四大关键条件的支撑: 一是筑牢制度根基,以稳 ...
建信期货棉花日报-20250829
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 01:49
Information Summary - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton market is experiencing a period of oscillatory adjustment. The latest price index for 328-grade cotton is 15,336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for 2024/25 northern Xinjiang local machine-picked cotton and southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine-picked cotton are provided. The cotton yarn market has a stable trading volume, with conventional yarns being the most popular, and some low-count yarns also seeing increased sales. However, spinning mills are still operating at limited capacity, and overall market confidence is weak. The cotton fabric market has not seen significant changes, with sales remaining slow and orders for weaving factories having limited recovery [7]. - In the overseas market, the weekly export sales data for US cotton has weakened, the drought coverage rate in major cotton-growing areas has increased, the good and excellent rate has slightly decreased week-on-week, and the net long position of CFTC funds remains at a low level. Therefore, the short-term trend of the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern. In the domestic market, the cotton in Xinjiang is in the boll-opening and flocculation stage, and the market is waiting for guidance from the new cotton purchase. Recently, there have been rumors that a large amount of new cotton has been pre-sold, and the expectation of a rush to purchase new cotton has increased. However, the expected stable increase in production also brings pressure on the long-term market. On the demand side, the inventory of cotton yarn products continues to decline slightly, and the sales of fabric factories are not as good as those of yarn factories. The market is still observing the performance of the traditional peak season. Overall, due to limited changes in the fundamentals, the market is expected to continue its oscillatory adjustment [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting. The spot price of cotton has decreased slightly, and the basis quotes for different regions are provided. The cotton yarn market has a stable trading volume, with conventional yarns being the most popular, and some low-count yarns also seeing increased sales. However, spinning mills are still operating at limited capacity, and overall market confidence is weak. The cotton fabric market has not seen significant changes, with sales remaining slow and orders for weaving factories having limited recovery [7]. - **Overseas Market**: The weekly export sales data for US cotton has weakened, the drought coverage rate in major cotton-growing areas has increased, the good and excellent rate has slightly decreased week-on-week, and the net long position of CFTC funds remains at a low level. Therefore, the short-term trend of the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The cotton in Xinjiang is in the boll-opening and flocculation stage, and the market is waiting for guidance from the new cotton purchase. Recently, there have been rumors that a large amount of new cotton has been pre-sold, and the expectation of a rush to purchase new cotton has increased. However, the expected stable increase in production also brings pressure on the long-term market. On the demand side, the inventory of cotton yarn products continues to decline slightly, and the sales of fabric factories are not as good as those of yarn factories. The market is still observing the performance of the traditional peak season. Overall, due to limited changes in the fundamentals, the market is expected to continue its oscillatory adjustment [8]. 3.2. Industry News - In Hutubi County, Xinjiang, 869,000 mu of cotton is gradually flocculating. The county's 24 cotton purchase and processing enterprises have almost completed the overhaul of their production equipment, which is expected to finish in mid-September. The funds and personnel for cotton purchase are also ready, and the purchase of new cotton is expected to start around September 20. During the purchase period, the local development and reform commission will strengthen supervision to ensure the interests of cotton farmers [9]. 3.3. Data Overview The report provides various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][19][28].
金价,又涨了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 06:47
Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 2.8% month-over-month decline in durable goods orders for July, slightly better than expected. However, non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased by 1.1%, indicating a potential recovery in business capital spending and confidence in the economic outlook [1] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell from a revised 98.7 in July to 97.4 in August, reflecting growing concerns about employment and income among Americans, which counteracts optimism regarding the current and future business environment [1] Group 2 - The international gold price rose on the day, attributed to investors seeking safe-haven assets amid concerns over the unprecedented "removal" of a Federal Reserve board member by the U.S. President, which raised questions about the Fed's independence [4] - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.30%, the S&P 500 by 0.41%, and the Nasdaq by 0.44%, as investor focus shifted from the Fed controversy to corporate earnings and fundamentals [7] Group 3 - The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index showed a year-over-year increase of 2.1% in June, marking the fifth consecutive month of slowing price growth, indicating that high home prices and mortgage rates are suppressing housing demand [9] - European stock indices collectively declined, with the French stock market performing the worst due to political uncertainty following a call for a confidence vote by the French Prime Minister [12] Group 4 - International oil prices fell after reaching a new high for August, as investors took profits amid potential overbuying due to geopolitical factors in Eastern Europe. Light crude oil futures settled at $63.25 per barrel, down 2.39%, while Brent crude futures closed at $67.22 per barrel, down 2.30% [14]
美国统计局“无法相信”后,华尔街更依赖“私人调查”:ADP就业、挑战者裁员人数等数据对市场愈发重要
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-24 05:24
Core Viewpoint - Investors on Wall Street are increasingly considering reducing their reliance on government economic data due to concerns over potential political influence on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data following President Trump's dismissal of its head and allegations of data manipulation [1][2][4] Group 1: Shift to Private Data Sources - Wall Street strategists are planning to increase their reliance on private data sources such as ADP Research's employment reports and Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.'s layoff data [1][2] - Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, expressed concerns about the future effectiveness of government data due to the political turmoil surrounding the BLS [2] - Michael O'Rourke, Chief Market Strategist at Jonestrading, indicated that the situation looks "very bad" and plans to focus more on private data sources [2] Group 2: Concerns Over Data Politicalization - Investors believe that if government data becomes politicized, private data sources will help them quickly identify issues [4] - Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, stated that private data serves as a check against official data, allowing for cross-validation [4] - Donald Ellenberger, Senior Portfolio Manager at Federated Hermes, warned that if the Trump administration is seen as interfering with reporting procedures, the usefulness of government reports will diminish [4] Group 3: Current State of BLS Data - The BLS data has its own issues, including funding shortages leading to personnel shortages and outdated data collection methods, which have decreased reliability [5] - The response rate for surveys has been declining over the years, and the magnitude of data revisions has been increasing [5]
茅台酒大幅跳水,五星70周年纪念暴跌18.87%,投资风险骤增需警惕
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 02:20
Core Viewpoint - The Moutai liquor market experienced significant volatility in 2025, highlighted by the rapid sellout of the "Five-Star 70th Anniversary Edition" and subsequent price drop, raising concerns about market sentiment and investor confidence [1][5][11] Price Fluctuations - The "Five-Star 70th Anniversary Edition" sold out 25,568 bottles in two minutes but saw its price plummet from 13,500 yuan to 11,000 yuan, a decline of 18.87%, despite being over 50% higher than its initial price of 7,000 yuan [1] - Other Moutai products also faced price declines, with the kilogram Moutai dropping 15 yuan to 3,305 yuan, and the "Snake Moutai" falling 48% from an initial price of 3,800 yuan to 1,975 yuan [1][2] Financial Performance - Guizhou Moutai's H1 2025 financial report showed revenue of 89.389 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [4] - The revenue from Moutai liquor accounted for 84.6% of total revenue, indicating stability in the core business, while the series liquor revenue was relatively small at 13.76 billion yuan [4] Growth Concerns - There is a noticeable slowdown in revenue growth, with Q1 2025 showing a 10.54% increase, while Q2 only grew by 2.95%, leading to a significant quarter-on-quarter decline [6] - The deceleration in revenue and profit growth is a primary source of market anxiety, suggesting potential cracks in the Moutai brand's perceived invincibility [6] Market Sentiment - The price volatility reflects deeper psychological factors, with market participants exhibiting extreme sensitivity to price changes, leading to rapid sell-offs during downturns [1][8] - The high-end liquor market's liquidity issues and the influence of a few players can lead to drastic price swings, raising concerns about the sustainability of current price levels [8] Diverging Opinions - There are contrasting views in the market, with some seeing the current situation as a buying opportunity, while others fear that the price rebound may be temporary [9] - The ongoing debate about Moutai's financial attributes and market dynamics indicates a lack of consensus on future price movements and market stability [11]
政策红利与市场信心共振 A股迈入百万亿新时代 -20250819
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the A-share market has entered a new era with a total market value surpassing 100 trillion yuan, driven by government policies and market confidence [1] - The State Council's top-level deployment aims to consolidate the economic recovery, supported by a series of financial policies including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [1] - Significant inflows of capital from public funds, private equity, insurance funds, and foreign investments indicate strong investor confidence in policy benefits and economic transformation [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the performance of major indices, noting that the US stock indices experienced slight fluctuations, with the communication sector leading gains and real estate lagging [2] - It mentions that the financing balance increased by 7.542 billion yuan, reaching 20,485.99 billion yuan, reflecting a continuation of loose domestic liquidity [2] - The market is currently in a phase of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of sustained market performance, although sector rotation and structural differentiation are expected [2] Group 3 - The article reports that the US inflation data exceeded expectations, putting pressure on gold and silver prices, with the PPI rising by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year [3] - It notes that the US Treasury Secretary indicated a significant likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, which could influence market expectations [3] - The overall market sentiment is affected by concerns over employment data and the economic outlook, leading to a potential for gold and silver prices to fluctuate [3] Group 4 - The article highlights that the SC night market for crude oil rose by 0.7%, while the US initial jobless claims decreased against a backdrop of low layoffs [4] - It emphasizes that domestic demand remains weak, which may push the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August [4] - The article suggests that traders are reducing bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to rising inflation concerns [4] Group 5 - The article outlines key domestic news, including the emphasis by Premier Li Qiang on enhancing macro policy effectiveness and stabilizing market expectations [6] - It discusses the need to stimulate consumption and promote effective investment, particularly in the real estate sector [6] - The National Medical Insurance Administration announced nine key tasks to improve healthcare financing, indicating a focus on healthcare reforms [7]
市场信心提振,牛市行情有望延续,金融科技ETF华夏(516100)冲击六连涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 02:40
Group 1 - The three major indices collectively strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3720 points, indicating a positive market trend [1] - Financial Technology ETF Huaxia (516100) rose by 2.03%, achieving a six-day consecutive increase with a cumulative gain of over 14% in the last six trading days [1] - The broker ETF fund (515010) increased by 0.88%, with its constituent stock Changcheng Securities hitting the daily limit, marking its fourth consecutive board [1] Group 2 - Short-term positive policies are accelerating implementation, with high-level statements promoting the healthy and high-quality development of the private economy, which may boost market confidence [1] - The current easing of tariff disputes and geopolitical conflicts, along with improved domestic economic data, has led to a rise in market sentiment, although indicators show some local overheating without significant overall overheating [2] - Financial Technology ETF Huaxia (516100) and broker ETF fund (515010) are expected to benefit from the market recovery as leaders of the new and old bull markets [3]