2025年那场关税战，美国终于低头认错了——不是税率定得太高，而是从一开始就想错了。 他们以为中国会先扛不住，会先坐到谈判桌前求和。 结果呢？ 中国不仅没低头，反而把这场博弈变成了自己的主场。 特朗普团队当时的想法其实挺直白：中国出口那么多东西到美国，离了美国市场，日子肯定不好过。 只要关税够狠，压力够大，北京自然会服软。 这逻辑听起来好像也没毛病，但问题就出在——他们把中国当成一个被动挨打的角色，而不是一个早有准备的对手。 4月2日，美国对中国商品加征34%的"对等关税"，加上之前层层叠加的税率，整体水平已经拉得很高。 可他们忘了，中国也在算账，而且算得更早、更深、更远。 第二天，4月3日，中国直接回敬34%的对等关税，范围广、力度足、一点余地都不留。 美方原本还指望有个"缓冲期"，让企业慢慢调整，结果这个幻想当场就被打碎。 这不是临时起意的反击，而是一套早就备好的预案。 中国根本没打算被动接招，而是把这次冲突看作长期战略博弈中的一环——你出拳，我接住；你加码，我翻倍。 真正让美国感到不对劲的，还不是关税本身，而是紧随其后的组合拳。 关税刚落地，中国就暂停了部分美国产品的进口审批。 表面看只是常规操作，但细 ...

"从元旦到春节前，正是客户备货的黄金旺季。"2026年伊始，深圳市海士通达科技有限公司的存储设备 出口订单接踵而来，公司销售经理林映虹的办公桌前，电脑屏幕交替切换着多种语言询盘界面，并同步 向团队发送着订单进度。 这样的忙碌景象，并非海士通达一家，广大外贸企业正以"开年即冲刺"的姿态抢抓旺季机遇。这场开年 冲刺，成为中国外贸韧性的生动注脚，将为全年外贸提质增效打下坚实基础。 订单增：新客询盘升温 "2026年元旦过后不到10天，新客户询盘就已达七八十个。"江苏新牛盾智能装备有限公司总经理仇一波 谈起新客户的询盘热情难掩欣喜，"目前这些新订单都在积极推进中，不少客户还专门飞来工厂考察， 看到我们的生产规模后当场就表达了明确意向，后续转化值得期待。" 仇一波坦言，由于叉车属于大型机械装备，客户采购时会综合考量技术实力、产能保障等多个因素，谈 判周期相对较长，短则一周、长则一两年都是常事。 "近年来公司叉车出口年均增长率保持在18%-20%，2025年出口叉车数量超1万台，所以，对新订单的签 订我们还是有信心的。"仇一波说。 "从目前排队的订单来看，仅按数量统计就有50万件左右。"林映虹对开年订单了如指掌，"老客户 ...

近日，家居出口行业迎来了一则关键消息：特朗普政府正式宣布，将原定于2026年1月1日实施的软体家具、厨房橱柜及浴室台盆柜等产品的关税上调计 划，推迟至2027年执行。在此期间，相关产品的关税税率仍维持在25%不变。 其实，早在2025年9月，特朗普所签署的行政令就对进口厨房橱柜和软体家具加征了25%的关税，并在10月就正式生效。而按照原计划，这两类产品关税 还将在2026年再次上调，其中厨房橱柜升至50%，软体家具升至30%。如今二次加税在即，为何特朗普会在新年前夕12月31日发布关税暂缓公告呢？ 在发布的公告中提到，美国与部分贸易伙伴在贸易互惠及木制品进口相关的国家安全问题上取得建设性进展，因此暂缓加税可以为后续谈判创造更缓和的 气氛。 我们作为全球最大的软体家具生产国和出口国，美国占中国家具出口份额约26%，木家具更是中国对美国林木产品出口的主力品类。此次推迟加税，无疑 为相关企业带来短期利好，争取到更多时间进行市场与产能调整。 但也必须清醒认识到，从政策表述来看，加税仅是推迟而非取消，2027年仍可能上调。更重要的是美国外贸政策不确定性是长期存在的，尤其是与木制 品、家具、橱柜相关产品，特别需要警惕23 ...

Core Insights - As 2026 approaches, there is a sense of optimism due to a resilient consumer base and strong earnings in 2025, setting a positive tone for the upcoming year [1][2] - The technology sector, particularly around artificial intelligence (AI), is expected to continue leading the market, although there are concerns about current valuations being priced for perfection [3][4] Market Trends - There is an anticipated broadening of investment opportunities across various sectors as opposed to the narrow focus on technology seen in recent years [5] - Real estate, which has been underperforming, presents potential investment opportunities as market conditions normalize [6] - The banking sector may also offer opportunities as the yield curve begins to stabilize [6] Sector Analysis - The energy sector is viewed positively, although there are concerns regarding policy shifts that may impact renewable energy projects [7][8] - Small and mid-cap stocks may see increased activity, particularly in mergers and acquisitions, as interest rates decline [10] - International markets are considered essential for a diversified portfolio, with potential opportunities expected in 2026 despite the complexities of global trade dynamics [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of the European market for Chinese foreign trade enterprises, driven by the ongoing tariff war initiated by the U.S. and the need for market diversification. However, this shift also brings heightened trade barriers and compliance risks, challenging Chinese companies to enhance their product quality, brand strength, and organizational capabilities [3][5]. Market Growth and Opportunities - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's exports to the EU grew by 8.9%, with notable increases to Germany (11.0%), the Netherlands (3.2%), France (8.7%), and Italy (11.0%) [5]. - The ongoing e-commerce penetration in Europe is shifting more offline purchasing behaviors online, further boosting the growth of Chinese cross-border e-commerce [5]. - eBay reported significant sales growth for Chinese sellers in the UK and Germany, with categories like brake discs increasing by 16 times and shock absorbers by 9 times over the past three years [5]. - Alibaba's international platform noted a 57% increase in orders from Europe this year, indicating a strong market potential [5]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the European market is described as more intense, with a shift from intra-Chinese competition to competition with local European brands, which may lead to higher profit margins for Chinese companies [7][8]. - Compliance with European regulations is seen as essential for maintaining competitiveness, with a focus on long-term opportunities despite the challenges posed by stricter regulations [6][8]. Strategic Insights - Companies are encouraged to adopt a localized operational approach to navigate the diverse cultural and regulatory landscape of Europe, which differs significantly from the more unified U.S. market [9]. - The article highlights the potential for Chinese brands to leverage their cost advantages while meeting high compliance standards, suggesting that successful companies will be those that can adapt to local market demands [8][12]. Future Plans and Trends - eBay's 2026 strategy focuses on deepening its presence in the U.S. while entering the European market, indicating a dual-market approach for growth [10][11]. - Companies are planning to expand their market reach in Europe, with a focus on new countries like Poland and the Netherlands, while also enhancing operational efficiency through AI tools [11][12]. - The article notes that the trust in Chinese brands is increasing in developed markets, with a significant rise in consumer confidence in the UK [6][12].

2025年10月，国务院正式批复同意杭州综合保税区扩区，新增区块落户临空经济示范区，补齐了萧山国 际机场周边缺乏综保配套的短板，更是推进杭州高水平对外开放、撬动外向型经济提质增效的关键抓 手，为杭州经济社会发展注入新动力。 而这一开放举措，恰与"十四五"期间杭州外贸的转型成效相得益彰。五年来，杭州外贸实现从"规模扩 张"到"质量提升"的深刻转型，技术突围与市场多元的"双轮驱动"成为穿越周期的关键密码。当地外贸 企业主动摒弃"价格内卷"以创新筑竞争力，规避"单一风险"以多元市场拓空间。在"十四五"收官之际， 杭州外贸交出韧性凸显、质效双升的成绩单：1—11月全市货物进出口总额达8237亿元，其中出口5878 亿元，同比增长8.8%，增速高出全国、全省平均水平。 高新技术出口增超39% 杭州外贸以"技术突围"破内卷 面对逆全球化思潮蔓延、国际市场竞争加剧的复杂环境，五年间，杭州外贸企业以技术创新为核心驱动 力，走出了一条"杭州智造"赋能高质量出海的转型之路。从新能源汽车到智能装备，从数字文创到生物 医药，各行业企业立足自身特色深耕技术研发，推动出口产品附加值持续提升，让"技术优势"替代"价 格优势"成为杭州外贸的 ...

特朗普一上台，就忙着挥关税大棒，2025年开年就把对华关税推到天价，最低145%，最高245%。这政 策一出，美国企业先慌了神。到2025年11月，中国对美出口同比降了18.9%，总额3859亿美元，比2022 年高点少了28%。 托尔斯滕这类专家在4月就警告过，要是不撤关税，美国2025年铁定陷衰退。路径挺清楚：企业利润 薄，本来靠中国货压成本，现在一断供，现金流断了弦，很多直接没辙。 苹果、英伟达这些巨头，产能80%还在中国扎根，换地方？越南印度试了几年，也就占个15%，没法顶 上百万流水线。芯片企业高通啥的，46%的收入从中国来，英特尔29%，一刀切脱钩，他们得先哭。华 尔街企业忙着游说，申请豁免，2025年初白宫申请堆成山。 脱钩梦醒，美伤中深 可这对美国来说，不是什么好消息。他们的进口成本直线上升，消费者买东西得多掏腰包。经济学家们 直言不讳，说高关税会让美国中小企业大批倒闭，就业岗位丢一大堆，最终GDP可能下滑4%左右。 结果呢，美国贸易逆差不降反升，8月份就到8900亿美元，比前一年涨17%。这不就是自个儿给自己下 绊子吗？中国这边，虽然对美出口占比从2018年的19%降到2024年的14.7% ...

美国本来希望通过提高关税来迫使中国在知识产权保护、市场准入等问题上作出妥协，但中国始终坚持自己的立场，未在核心利益上让步。相反，在10月30 日的釜山会晤时，特朗普同意下调部分关税，并恢复部分高科技产品对华出口。会后，白宫于11月1日发布事实表，确认中国暂停自3月4日以来宣布的报复 性关税，而美国也对相关政策进行了调整。整场贸易战持续了近九个月，虽然美国通过关税征收了超过2000亿美元的税款，但并未达成最初的目标。其四项 证据之一就是两国经济数据的对比。2025年上半年，中国的GDP同比增长了5.3%，超出了国际货币基金组织4.8%的预测值，而东盟也超越美国，成为中国 最大的贸易伙伴，贸易额占比超过了15%。中国的出口逐渐转向越南、马来西亚等国家，港口吞吐量保持高位，制造业订单也很稳定。相比之下，美国的经 济增长仅为1.25%，远低于预期。高关税政策导致美国进口成本上升，企业利润下降，农业出口大幅减少。芝加哥大豆期货价格波动剧烈，美国农民因此遭 受了巨大的损失。《金融时报》指出，中国通过战略耐心和经济实力，将贸易战中的压力转化为内部改革的动力，而美国则面临通货膨胀的压力和供应链的 中断。 2025年，特朗普再 ...

Core Insights - Shanghai's import and export value reached 4.1 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, surpassing the national average growth rate by 2 percentage points [1] - Exports amounted to 1.83 trillion yuan, growing by 11.2%, while imports totaled 2.27 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.6% [1] - November saw record monthly exports, with a total of 1.87 trillion yuan, marking an 18.2% increase, and imports at 200.9 billion yuan, up by 4.4% [1] Trade Partners and Market Diversification - The EU remains the largest trading partner for Shanghai, with import and export growth accelerating by 1.1 percentage points in the first 11 months [1] - Significant growth in trade with emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa, indicating effective market diversification [1] Export Dynamics - Machinery and electrical products accounted for 65.4% of total exports, with a value of 1.19 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.3% [2] - The export of "new three samples" products, particularly hybrid vehicles, surged by 174.8% to 25.72 billion yuan, showcasing strong demand [2] - The export of liquid cargo ships increased by 130.5% to 34.24 billion yuan, driven by the green low-carbon trend [2] Import Trends - High-tech product imports reached 737.21 billion yuan, growing by 6.3%, with notable increases in semiconductor manufacturing equipment (35.4%), computers and components (24%), and aircraft (74.3%) [2] - The import of raw materials such as metal ores and copper products also saw growth, indicating active manufacturing sector activities [2] - Consumer market vitality is reflected in the increased imports of various consumer goods, including fruits, dairy products, toys, and sports equipment [2]

Core Insights - Shanghai's import and export value increased by 5.7% year-on-year in the first 11 months of this year, reaching 4.1 trillion yuan, which is 2 percentage points higher than the national average growth rate [1] - Exports amounted to 1.83 trillion yuan, growing by 11.2%, while imports reached 2.27 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.6% [1] - In November alone, the import and export value was 387.49 billion yuan, marking a 10.6% increase, with exports hitting a record high of 186.6 billion yuan, up 18.2% [1] Trade Partners and Market Diversification - Shanghai's trade with the European Union, its largest trading partner, reached 742.31 billion yuan, growing by 1.4% [1] - Trade with emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa saw significant growth, with increases of 12.6%, 17.5%, and 28.9% respectively, indicating effective market diversification [1] Export and Import Composition - In the first 11 months, Shanghai exported 1.19 trillion yuan worth of electromechanical products, accounting for 65.4% of total exports, with "new three types" products growing by 16.5% [2] - Notably, hybrid vehicle exports surged by 174.8% to 25.72 billion yuan, while liquid cargo ship exports increased by 130.5% to 34.24 billion yuan [2] - High-tech product imports totaled 737.21 billion yuan, with significant growth in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, computers, and aircraft, reflecting a robust manufacturing sector [2] Consumer Goods and Market Activity - The import of consumer goods showed positive trends, with fruit and dairy product imports growing by 17.8% and 14.2% respectively, alongside toys and sports equipment imports increasing by 17% and 15.1% [2]