行业点评 | 房地产 上海迎新一轮宽松政策 行业止跌回稳方向明确 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 2025 年 8 月 25 日上海地产新政点评 摘要内容 8 月 25 日，上海继北京放松地产政策后，迎来宽松政策，政策放松强度略 强于北京。本次上海放松政策包括：1）满足购房要求的居民外环外不限购 套数；2）成年单身/离异限购套数与家庭一致；3）不再区分首套、二套房贷 利率；4）提高公积金贷款额度，支持提取公积金支付首付，不影响公积金 贷款额度；5）非沪籍家庭购买首套住房暂免征房产税，二套及以上合并计 算征收面积，给予人均免征面积 60 平，较北京增加不再区分首套、二套房 贷利率，及房产税优惠两项政策，政策放松力度略强于北京。 改善刚需均受益，有望提升上海市场热度，非沪籍客户、新房市场获政策倾 斜。改善群体是政策预期进一步激发的主要群体，包括外环外不限购套数， 不再区分首套二套房贷利率，均有助于多套置业需求客户降低置业门槛及成 本；公积金推行"又提又贷"，拓宽"以租养贷"通道，利好最为敏感的刚 需客户；满足要求非沪籍客户首套暂免征房产税，且由此前限购 1 套放松至 不限购，利于吸引外来置业需求； ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and release improvement demand through urban renewal and the renovation of old housing [1] - It anticipates a new round of policy easing in the real estate sector due to increased downward pressure on housing prices in core cities and a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's stance [1] - The report suggests focusing on companies that are reversing their difficulties, such as China Vanke and New Town Holdings, as well as leading firms maintaining land acquisition intensity [1] Sales Review (8.16-8.22) - The total number of transactions in 32 monitored cities reached 14,498 units, a week-on-week increase of 20.4%; cumulative transactions for 2025 are 521,000 units, down 6.7% year-on-year [2][14] - In first-tier cities, transactions totaled 3,626 units, up 7.7% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 148,000 units for 2025, down 0.5% year-on-year [2][15] - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 9,303 units, a week-on-week increase of 29.5%, with a cumulative total of 312,000 units for 2025, down 9.4% year-on-year [2][15] - Third-tier cities recorded 1,569 transactions, up 5.1% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 61,000 units for 2025, down 6.7% year-on-year [2][15] Land Supply (8.11-8.17) - The planned construction area for residential land supply in 100 cities is 7.45 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 14.368 million square meters for 2025, down 15.6% year-on-year [3][39] - The average floor price for land supply in 100 cities is 3,519 yuan per square meter, with a recent four-week average of 4,165 yuan per square meter, down 12.4% month-on-month and 15.6% year-on-year [3][41] Land Transactions (8.11-8.17) - The planned construction area for residential land transactions in 100 cities is 3.92 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 12.213 million square meters for 2025, up 4.2% year-on-year [4][64] - The average transaction floor price for residential land in 100 cities is 5,465 yuan per square meter, up 15.2% month-on-month and 18.6% year-on-year, with an overall premium rate of 11.7% [4][66]

近日，碧桂园发布公告，公司就境外债务重组建议已与银行协调委员会协定主要条款，协调委员会占现 有银团贷款本金总额的49%，其成员已加入重组支持协议，或正履行内部程序以取得加入批准。碧桂园 同时表示，已获得持有大量现有债务的债权人大力支持，公司正与项目小组及协调委员会就正式文件紧 密合作，力争在2025年年底前完成建议重组。 进入下半年，多家房企的债务重组取得积极进展。据中指研究院的统计，截至2025年8月，完成境内及 境外债重组的企业有融创、富力、奥园、远洋、时代中国、龙光等房企。境外债重组获批的企业有旭 辉、佳兆业、禹洲地产、世茂、碧桂园等。截至2025年8月，共有20家出险房企债务重组或重整计划获 批准，化债总规模突破1.2万亿元。 8月22日，碧桂园在港交所公告，预计截至2025年6月30日止半年度的期内亏损介乎约185亿元至215亿 元，预计期内亏损主要是由于房地产开发项目结算规模下降，毛利率仍处低位以及物业项目的资产减值 增加所致。 据悉，集团保持生产经营稳定，通过执行极限收支的策略，高效利用资源，并建立多样化的动态机制， 强化计划运营管理体系。在报告期内，本集团连同其合资企业和联营公司累计完成交付房 ...

近段时间，房企财报季进入高峰期。 8月22日，碧桂园在港交所公告，预计截至2025年6月30日止半年度的期内亏损介乎约185亿元至215亿元， 预计期内亏损主要是由于房地产开发项目结算规模下降，毛利率仍处低位以及物业项目的资产减值增加所 致。 据悉，集团保持生产经营稳定，通过执行极限收支的策略，高效利用资源，并建立多样化的动态机制，强化 计划运营管理体系。在报告期内，本集团连同其合资企业和联营公司累计完成交付房屋约7.4万套。同时，公 司高度重视债务风险化解，通过积极主动与各利益相关方沟通，推动包括境外债务的整体重组、债务期限的 合理延长以及融资成本的适度降低等多种主动债务管理举措，致力于逐步搭建长期及可持续的健康的资本结 构。 近日，碧桂园发布公告，公司就境外债务重组建议已与银行协调委员会协定主要条款，协调委员会占现有银 团贷款本金总额的49%，其成员已加入重组支持协议，或正履行内部程序以取得加入批准。碧桂园同时表 示，已获得持有大量现有债务的债权人大力支持，公司正与项目小组及协调委员会就正式文件紧密合作，力 争在2025年年底前完成建议重组。 进入下半年，多家房企的债务重组取得积极进展。据中指研究院的统计 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - Since Q2 of this year, the pressure on second-hand housing prices in core cities has increased, while first-hand housing prices and the land market remain relatively hot, leading to a significant disparity between the first and second-hand markets. The report highlights three main points: 1) Core cities face substantial downward pressure on second-hand housing prices 2) The process of price recovery for new homes in core areas is not yet over 3) The pressure to stabilize prices is increasing, with a new round of policy easing expected [2][5][9] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 3.53% this week, with an excess return of +1.16% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 7th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 4.96%, with an excess return of -1.83% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 26th out of 32 [6][16] Policy Updates - Recent policy optimizations include a unified down payment ratio of 15% for housing provident fund loans in Suzhou and Tianjin, and Hainan's initiative to acquire existing homes for affordable housing and relocation purposes [7][20] Sales Data - The sales data indicates a significant seasonal decline, but the year-on-year performance for second-hand transactions remains relatively stable due to a low base. For instance, the new home transaction area in 37 cities saw a four-week rolling year-on-year decline of 17.9%, while second-hand homes showed a slight year-on-year change of 0.0% [8][21] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the contrasting trends in first and second-hand housing prices, emphasizing that core cities are experiencing a potential correction in second-hand prices, while new homes are expected to see a price recovery due to previously strict price controls [9][10]

Group 1: Debt Restructuring Progress - Several real estate companies have made positive progress in debt restructuring, with Country Garden agreeing to key restructuring conditions requested by bank creditors [1] - Country Garden has reached an agreement with a bondholder special committee on a compensation payment of $178 million to the bank coordination committee, which consists of seven banks holding 48% of the existing syndicated loans [1] - As of June 30, over 75% of the holders of existing public notes have joined the restructuring support agreement, indicating strong creditor backing for the restructuring efforts [1] Group 2: Industry Trends and Financing Environment - The debt restructuring process for distressed real estate companies is shifting from extension to accelerated debt reduction, with over ten companies, including Sunac and R&F, having received approval for debt restructuring or reorganization [2] - The total scale of overseas debt for real estate companies has significantly decreased from its peak, with over 100 billion yuan remaining due by 2025, indicating a reduction in overseas debt risk [2] - Despite favorable policies easing liquidity pressure for real estate companies, financing remains concentrated among leading firms, necessitating faster policy implementation and market-driven solutions for distressed companies [2] Group 3: Sales and Financing Outlook - Real estate companies are expected to face significant sales pressure in the second half of the year, with potential improvements contingent on stronger policy support [3] - The financing environment for real estate companies is expected to remain stable in the second half, with no further deterioration, although substantial growth in financing scale is unlikely [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - Since Q2 2025, the pressure on volume and price has continued to increase, approaching policy thresholds, posing new challenges to the goal of stabilizing the market. Expectations for policy easing are gradually strengthening, with significant meetings potentially serving as a buying window for the sector. The trading level in July is expected to be lower than in September [2][11] - The report suggests prioritizing high-quality real estate companies with relatively low inventory pressure and strong product capabilities. It also recommends considering companies undergoing marginal improvements and debt restructuring. In the context of low interest rates and asset shortages, leading enterprises in commercial real estate, property management, and brokerage with stable cash flows and potential high dividends remain medium to long-term investment opportunities [2][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January to June 2025, national sales of commercial housing decreased by 5.5% in value and 3.5% in area year-on-year, with the decline in sales accelerating in June to 10.8% in value and 5.5% in area. The sales area decline aligns with trends in key cities and top 100 real estate companies [11] - In June, the price index for new and second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 0.3% and 0.6% month-on-month, respectively, with the decline in first-tier cities also accelerating [11] Construction and Investment Trends - The year-on-year decline in new construction area from January to June 2025 was 20.0%, with a smaller decline of 9.4% in June. The completion area also saw a year-on-year decline of 14.8% [11] - The total funds available to real estate companies decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, with a notable decline in deposits and pre-sales [11] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the most challenging period for the real estate industry may be nearing its end, with expectations of double-digit declines in construction and investment for the year 2025. Sales performance will depend on the effectiveness of future policies [11]

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry, particularly the current market conditions and policy expectations for Q3 2023. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Performance**: As of June, most cities have seen housing prices drop below the levels of September last year, with a continuous decline in prices across 50 cities from April to June, recording decreases of 1.3%, 1.4%, and 1.6% respectively [2][3][6] 2. **Policy Expectations**: There is a high expectation for more aggressive policies to stabilize the market, especially around the central city work conference and the Politburo meeting in July [2][6] 3. **Valuation Recovery**: The real estate sector is experiencing a lag in valuation, indicating a potential for recovery or "catch-up" in prices [2][6] 4. **Conventional Policies**: Conventional measures such as relaxing purchase restrictions, adjusting down payment ratios, interest rate cuts, and tax incentives are available but may have limited effectiveness [3][4] 5. **Unconventional Policies**: Unconventional measures could include deep interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, and leveraging central government support, particularly targeting mortgage loans to stimulate demand [3][4] 6. **Urban Village Redevelopment**: The Ministry of Housing has proposed a plan for 1 million urban village redevelopment projects, primarily in first and second-tier cities, which could mobilize trillions in funding if fully implemented [5] 7. **Market Data Challenges**: The second quarter's market data has posed challenges to policy goals, leading to expectations of continued easing in Q3, with key trading windows in July and September [6][8] 8. **Macroeconomic Indicators**: The macroeconomic data for Q2 2025 shows a GDP growth rate exceeding 5%, with consumption and exports remaining stable, reducing the immediate need for aggressive policy easing [7] 9. **Investment Opportunities**: Companies with solid fundamentals such as Jiafa Technology, Xinjiang Group, and Beike are recommended for investment. Additionally, companies like Jianfa International and Binjiang Group are favored due to their inventory structure and quick turnover [9][10] 10. **Market Sentiment**: There is a cautious optimism regarding the trading rhythm in the coming months, with July and September identified as critical periods for market engagement [11] Other Important Insights - The potential for structural tools aimed at housing loans could significantly lower borrowing costs, enhancing homebuyer demand [4] - The issuance of special bonds or central government support could increase household loan limits, providing further market support [5] - Smaller companies with higher elasticity, such as Greentown, Yuexiu, and Jinmao, along with debt-restructuring firms, are also considered viable investment options [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the real estate stocks in China have collectively risen, indicating a positive market response to new housing loan policies in Guangzhou [1] - R&F Properties (02777) increased by 6.86% to HKD 1.09, Aoyuan Group (03383) rose by 5.95% to HKD 0.445, Oceanwide Holdings (03377) went up by 4.65% to HKD 0.09, and Sunac China (01918) gained 4% to HKD 1.56 [1] - The Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center released a draft policy that aims to ease restrictions on housing loans, which is expected to provide a strong signal of market easing [1] Group 2 - According to data from the China Index Academy, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies in the first half of 2025 amounted to CNY 183.64 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.8% [2] - In June alone, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies dropped by 18.5% year-on-year, indicating a worsening trend compared to May [2] - Open Source Securities anticipates that the real estate policies will remain positive and moderate, with expectations for more supportive fiscal and monetary policies to aid the industry's stable development [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou is set to optimize its real estate policies by proposing the comprehensive cancellation of purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, price limits, and lowering loan down payment ratios and interest rates, marking a significant shift in the city's approach to real estate regulation [2][3][15]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The proposed plan includes the full cancellation of purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price limits, making Guangzhou the first major city to announce such comprehensive measures [2][3]. - The plan also aims to lower the down payment ratios and interest rates for loans, further easing the financial burden on homebuyers [10][16]. - The city has already begun to implement these changes, with significant policy relaxations occurring since the fourth quarter of 2023 [4][6]. Group 2: Market Impact - Since the fourth quarter of 2023, Guangzhou's real estate market has shown signs of recovery, with transaction volumes steadily increasing [6][12]. - In the first five months of 2024, the number of second-hand residential transactions reached 43,785, a 23.6% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [6]. - The net signed contracts for new residential properties also saw a 22% year-on-year increase, indicating a positive market trend [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the comprehensive cancellation of restrictions will stimulate demand and enhance market activity, potentially leading to a stabilization of property prices [15][16]. - The ongoing urban renewal initiatives, including the renovation of old residential areas, are expected to further support property value retention and increase the supply of quality housing in central areas [12][17]. - The overall sentiment suggests that Guangzhou's real estate market is on a path to recovery, with expectations of continued moderate growth in transactions [14].