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20cm速递|创业板新能源ETF国泰(159387)回调超6%,锂电行业排产增长引关注
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-10 06:48
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 国金证券指出,2025年10月锂电行业排产环比增长3%~9%,同比增长21%~50%,其中电池、负极、 电解液同比增幅超40%,主要受车市旺季及储能需求拉动。行业库存周期已进入补库阶段,部分材料如 碳酸锂、氢氧化锂价格月涨幅达20%,电芯、电解液等同步上涨。储能领域,8月国内装机同环比分别 增长58%/63%,美国市场受ITC政策调整影响短期波动但累计同比仍达46%。固态电池技术进入产业化 关键窗口期,预计2026~2027年实现示范装车,复合集流体有望在2025年四季度规模量产。当前锂电板 块市场关注度持续提升,行业供需格局改善下部分环节盈利或迎来修复。 创业板新能源ETF国泰(159387)跟踪的是创新能源指数(399266),最大涨跌幅达20%,该指数从市 场中选取涉及清洁能源生产、存储及应用等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本,重点关注具有技术创新 能力和高成长潜力的企业,行业配置上以太阳能、风能、电动汽车及相关设备制造为主,以反映新能源 及相关产业链上市公司证券的整体表现。 ...
全票通过!拉美集体绑定中国,美国垄断几十年,这次要失算了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 05:32
在哥伦比亚波哥大的安共体总部,第31次外长理事会的表决结果揭晓,中国全票当选为观察员国。这是安共体成立多年来首次给亚洲国家这个位置,历史性 的一刻。为何美国这次在拉美的影响力受到挑战?是拉美突然改变立场,还是中国的策略得到了充分展现? 自2025年起,拉美国家面临美国关税的突然上调。特朗普政府宣布对从拉美进口的铜、锂、农产品加征10-15%的关税,玻利维亚、哥伦比亚、秘鲁、厄瓜 多尔等安共体成员国都受到影响。这一变化让拉美的经济合作模式遭遇严重打击。长期以来,美国几乎免税地从拉美进口资源,但美国突然加税,让这一合 作陷入困境。与此同时,美国减少对拉美的民生援助,拉美国家一时间陷入了困境:资源出口遇阻、援助也断了。 安共体成员国代表会后表示,期待与中国一起推动地区的可持续发展,这一表态反映了发展中国家对公平合作的渴望,也隐含着对美国单边主义的反抗。 合作。随着合作的深入,拉美国家逐渐发现,中国不仅仅是一个资源买家,更是一个长期、稳定的合作伙伴。 真正的转折出现在2019年之后,中国与拉美的合作不再是单纯的买卖,而是向着更深层次的区域协同发展。拉美国家不再满足于单纯的资源出口,而是希望 借助中国的技术力量升级本国 ...
有色商品日报-20251010
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:21
有色商品日报 有色商品日报(2025 年 10 月 10 日) 一、研究观点 有色商品日报 | | 系加工费持稳,6/8 系加工费持稳,低碳铝杆下调 87 元/吨。节内正值美政府停摆,多 | | --- | --- | | | 项重要数据公布时间持续延后,导致今年国庆期间外盘宏观影响有所弱化,节后沪铝 | | | 开盘补涨。氧化铝市场消息动态偏少,节后随着外矿价格走低,新增产能以及部分检修 | | | 产能回归,下游备货节奏放缓,延续过剩格局。电解铝结束短期补涨后,在金九消费整 | | | 体稍显疲弱,市场已将旺季预期全面押注向银十。节内铝锭及铝棒合计累库 8.14 万吨, | | | 重点关注节后库消走势,若后续去库不及预期,警惕价格出现预期修正。 | | | 隔夜 LME 镍涨 0.62%报 15485 美元/吨,沪镍涨 0.41%报 123620 元/吨。库存方面,LME | | | 库存增加 4260 吨至 234892 吨;国内 SHFE 仓单减少 42 吨至 24775 吨。升贴水来看, | | | LME0-3 月升贴水维持负数;进口镍升贴水维持 325 元/吨。消息面,印尼矿业部发布 | | ...
帮主郑重:沪指逼近3900,半导体掀涨停潮!这波午盘行情要盯准主线
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 04:18
中午打开行情软件,是不是一眼就瞅见沪指往3900点蹭了?还有半导体那块,华虹公司一下涨超15%,至纯科技直接封死涨停,不少朋友估计边扒饭边琢 磨:这盘面到底是热闹一阵,还是真有门道?大家好,我是帮主郑重,做了20年财经记者,沉下心做中长线投资也这些年了,今儿就趁着午盘间隙,跟大伙 唠唠这半天的行情里藏着的信号。 跟大伙说句实在的,以我20年盯财经的习惯,还有做中长线的感受,这波午盘行情有两点得拎清楚:一是成交额放量很关键,资金愿意进场,说明市场情绪 在慢慢回暖,不是飘在天上的虚涨;二是板块轮动有主线,不是东炒一下西炒一下,科技(半导体、存储)和新能源产业链(能源金属)是核心,这跟咱们 一直说的中长线逻辑刚好对上——跟着产业趋势走,比追那些没根的短期热点,心里踏实多了。 其实上午的盘面不算乱,三大指数都稳稳飘红——沪指涨了0.3%,离3900点就差口气,深成指跟沪指差不多,也涨了0.31%,创业板稍微稳一点,只涨了 0.06%。最实在的是成交额,半天就干到13698亿,比昨天多了761亿,钱是真往里头进,不是虚热闹;全市场超2900只个股上涨,说明不是少数票在撑场 面,大部分持仓的朋友应该都能感觉到点暖意。 中 ...
9月新能源基金集体大涨 后市还能上车吗?
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-09-29 17:22
9月29日,A股新能源板块迎来强势行情,锂电池主题ETF(交易型开放式指数基金)早盘率先发力,成为当日股票型ETF中的领涨主力。 Wind数据显示,截至9月29日收盘,电力设备行业指数涨幅在所有申万一级行业指数中一骑绝尘,月内涨幅接近20%,大幅领先排在第二的电子行业 指数近10个百分点。 电网、储能、动力电池、新能源汽车等电力设备细分赛道在三季度同步发力,共同推动新能源板块实现明显涨幅。 Wind数据显示,场内份额最大的1只电池ETF,早盘涨幅一度突破4%,盘中价格刷新近三年新高,最终收盘涨4.87%,单日成交额超15亿元。该ETF 跟踪的国证新能源车电池指数成分股中,多只个股单日实现涨停或涨幅超5%。 在锂电池板块的带动下,新能源产业链整体表现活跃,储能电池、新能源车等多只新能源主题ETF当日涨幅超4%。 9月以来,多只电池主题基金当月表现领涨全市场。受访者认为,新能源板块此轮大涨的背后,不仅是政策红利的催化,更重要的是新技术突破验证 与行业周期反转的逻辑。产业化开始提速,有望成为后续业绩增长的核心增量来源。 电池ETF创新高 9月29日,电池主题ETF成为除证券主题ETF之外涨幅最大的主题ETF,多只电 ...
20cm速递|新能源产业链全线冲高!创业板新能源ETF华夏(159368)上涨4.19%,同类规模第一
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-29 06:39
Core Insights - The new energy industry chain experienced a significant surge, with the ChiNext New Energy ETF (Hua Xia, 159368) rising by 4.19% and key holdings such as Hunan YN Energy increasing over 17% [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released action plans to support the growth of the new energy sector, particularly focusing on solid-state battery materials and advanced technology research [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (Hua Xia, 159368) is the largest ETF tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, with a scale of 1.009 billion as of September 26, 2025 [1] - The ETF has the highest trading volume, averaging 65.75 million in daily transactions over the past month [1] - The ETF's holdings include 51% in energy storage and 23.6% in solid-state batteries, aligning with current market trends [1] Group 2: Government Initiatives - Eight departments issued the "Nonferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to accelerate the application verification of high-end products like solid-state batteries [1] - The MIIT also published the "Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry Stabilization Growth Action Plan (2025-2026)" to support foundational research in cutting-edge technologies, including solid-state batteries [1]
2025年四季度镍&不锈钢策略报告-20250929
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:21
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of nickel ore in the fourth quarter still has significant room for release, but attention should be paid to possible policy changes in Indonesia [7]. - The stainless - steel industry in the nickel - iron - stainless - steel chain is supported by nickel - iron prices. The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory, but overall, it still faces great pressure. Concerns remain about potential inventory accumulation after holidays [7]. - In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material side is supported by tight supply, but the demand increase may be limited [7]. - For primary nickel, domestic production capacity still has a release plan. After de - stocking in the first half of the year due to some demand stimulation, recent inventory accumulation has begun to appear, dragging down nickel prices. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of nickel ore, premium, and primary nickel inventory should be focused on. If the supply is loose and primary nickel inventory accumulates, the price center will move further down [7]. - The price range for nickel is expected to be between 105,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price/Base - spread/Spread/Ratio - Nickel price is affected by factors such as nickel - ore premium, cobalt export ban, inventory changes, and macro - sentiment. The price has experienced fluctuations including over - decline, recovery, and weak - range oscillations [13]. - For nickel base - spreads, spreads, and ratios, relevant charts show historical data trends, which can be used to analyze market conditions [15][17][19]. - For stainless - steel prices, ratios, and spreads, relevant charts show the trends of spot premium, contract spreads, and the ratio of nickel to stainless - steel, providing a basis for price analysis [23][25][27]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has been continuously increasing, exceeding 230,000 tons by the end of September, reaching the highest level in recent years, with significant Chinese brand deliveries. The inventory accumulation of Shanghai nickel is relatively less obvious, with the current social inventory at around 40,000 tons [9][30]. - **Stainless - steel**: The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory levels. The current stainless - steel inventory has decreased to around 980,000 tons, with the 300 - series dropping to 620,000 tons [9][33][37]. 3.3 Nickel Ore - **Policy**: Indonesia has strengthened the role of the "government's hand" through systems such as SIMBARA and MOMS, and adjusted nickel - product royalties. The Philippines' plan to ban nickel - ore exports was revoked in mid - June [40][41]. - **Supply and Demand**: From January to August 2025, China's nickel - ore imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 26.1335 million wet tons, and port inventory was about 9.71 million wet tons. By the end of September, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton [5][44]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: Refined - nickel production capacity has been continuously expanding, with a monthly production capacity of around 54,000 tons by the end of August. The production using externally sourced raw materials is mostly unprofitable, while integrated MHP production is profitable. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by about 26% year - on - year to 260,000 tons. The cumulative imports increased by 178% year - on - year to 159,000 tons, exports increased by 69% year - on - year to 122,000 tons, and net imports were 37,000 tons [5][47]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption has increased significantly year - on - year, exports have slowed down, and the domestic electroplating demand has increased relatively obviously [50]. - **Balance**: With the continuous release of production capacity and the weakening of internal - external price differences, the surplus has expanded [9]. 3.5 Nickel - Iron - Stainless - Steel - **Supply**: Affected by the rising nickel - ore prices and average stainless - steel demand, the nickel - iron smelting profit has been squeezed, and the domestic operating rate has continued to decline. From January to August, the cumulative production decreased by 8% year - on - year to 20,000 nickel tons. The nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia has slightly expanded, and production has been continuously released, with the cumulative production from January to August increasing by 17% year - on - year to 1.113 million nickel tons [5][53]. - **Production and Sales of Stainless - Steel**: From January to August, China's cumulative stainless - steel production increased by 6% year - on - year to 26.33 million tons, and Indonesia's cumulative production increased by 4% year - on - year to 3.23 million tons. From January to August, cumulative imports decreased by 23% year - on - year to 1.02 million tons, cumulative exports increased by 3% year - on - year to 3.36 million tons, and net exports were 2.35 million tons. From January to August, stainless - steel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 22.115 million tons [5][6][58]. - **Profit**: Nickel - iron prices first declined and then rose, but generally remained at a low level in the past three years. Chromium - iron prices have strengthened periodically since the beginning of the year, and the theoretical immediate profit has been mostly in the red [61]. 3.6 New Energy - **Raw Materials**: The marginal production scheduling of ternary materials has increased, and the cobalt ban has boosted the demand for MHP, with the spot price strengthening. From January to August, the supply of Indonesian MHP increased by 56% year - on - year to 285,000 nickel tons, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 38% year - on - year to 115,000 nickel tons. From January to August, MHP imports increased by 20% year - on - year to 220,000 nickel tons, and nickel - matte imports decreased by 12% year - on - year to 270,000 tons. From January to August, domestic nickel - sulfate production decreased by 16% year - on - year to 210,000 nickel tons, and imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 160,000 tons [5][10][78]. - **Production**: In 2025, from January to September, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year - on - year at 620,000 tons; from January to September, the cumulative production of ternary materials increased by 11% year - on - year to 567,000 tons; from January to August, the production of ternary power cells increased by 16% year - on - year to 242 GWh, the production of ternary batteries increased by 15% year - on - year to 255.7 GWh, the installed capacity decreased by 10% year - on - year to 77.3 GWh, and the inventory decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year to 30.34 GWh [6][10][90].
镍、不锈钢产业周报:节前减仓过度,基本面有所松动-20250928
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 12:13
南华期货镍&不锈钢产业周报 —节前减仓过度,基本面有所松动 2025年9月28日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号:Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号:F03138675 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍盘面周内震荡为主,基本面实际调整有限。矿端情绪尚未消散,镍矿方面担忧聚焦在三个层面,政府制 裁采矿企业,企业环保优化后成本抬升,以及配额审批将近,批复数量或不及预期 。新能源方面支撑仍存, 目前九月已过补货节点,下游保存一定成交动向。刚果延长钴出口禁令,并且公布2025,2026出口总配额, 钴价仍有上行空间,带动MHP以及镍盐方面价格有一定上涨,当前市场流通偏紧,库存较低且仍有询单,后 续报价或延续偏强 。镍铁近期价格有所回落,目前价格已经接近不锈钢成本下线,不锈钢进入累库情况下镍 铁需求有所降低,进一步上探动能不足,近期无高价大单成交。不锈钢方面周内反复博弈,盘面一直不温不 火,目前库存重新出现小幅累积,结束连续十周去库;现货端灵活跟随盘面浮动,各种规格优惠试图以现货 成交为前提刺激盘面,但是整体节前现货仍以观望为主,探涨动作无明显成效。周中美元指数下探引领有色 金属一波上行,随后跟随美元指 ...
市场规模最大科创新能源ETF(588830)储能电芯提价叠加海外突破,成分股普涨引领新能源赛道
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 02:13
Group 1 - The domestic energy storage cell prices are on the rise, with major manufacturers increasing product prices, which is beneficial for the new energy industry chain [1] - Zhongrong Electric has made progress in overseas markets, with mass production in Germany and orders for pure electric platforms in Sweden, expanding into the wind and solar storage sector, and high demand expected in the second half of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs trading data shows that the technology sector in the Chinese stock market is leading, with the battery sector rising due to the influence of CATL, and strong demand anticipated [1] Group 2 - GF Securities indicates that the lithium battery industry is seeing a continuous recovery in profitability as leading companies like CATL and BYD reduce their debt ratios through cost and cash flow advantages [2] - Huatai Securities notes that the solar industry is experiencing a rush due to U.S. policy, with solar LCOE being significantly more economical than traditional energy due to technological cost reductions, although rising PPA prices may temporarily weaken competitiveness [2]
LG新能源下发碳酸锂大单!
鑫椤锂电· 2025-09-25 08:40
Core Viewpoint - Anson Resources has signed a battery-grade lithium carbonate purchase agreement with LG Energy Solution, leading to a nearly 25% increase in its stock price [1][2]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement stipulates that Anson Resources will supply 4,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually to LG Energy Solution starting in 2028 [1]. - This supply represents approximately 40% of the initial annual production capacity of Anson's Paradox Basin project, which is estimated to be around 10,000 tons [2]. - The initial term of the agreement is five years, with an option to extend for an additional five years [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, Anson Resources' stock price saw a peak increase of 24.7%, marking the strongest single-day gain in over two months, while the ASX 200 index fell by 0.6% during the same period [2]. - The transaction is expected to support Anson Resources' debt financing efforts during the final investment decision phase [2]. Group 3: Industry Context - Lithium, a key raw material for electric vehicle batteries, has faced a prolonged price slump due to slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles [2]. - This agreement underscores the importance of battery technology as a critical component within the new energy industry chain [2].