研究所 郑棉向上突破 整体偏强运行 ——国信期货棉花周报 2025年12月12日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 棉花市场分析 2 后市展望 一、棉花市场分析 研究所 郑商所棉花期货价格走势 ICE期棉价格走势 郑棉本周走强，周度涨幅0.95%。ICE期棉小幅震荡，周涨幅0.01%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格 2、棉花进口情况 研究所 150,000.00 120,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 50,000.00 70,000.00 100,000.00 90,000.00 30,000 80,000 130,000 180,000 230,000 280,000 330,000 380,000 430,000 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10月份进口棉花9万吨，同比减少2万吨。 研究所 10 ...

棉系周报：销售进度维 棉价震荡偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 ...

棉系周报：新棉销售较快 棉价震荡偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 辅 ...

研究所 郑棉偏弱震荡 短期上下空间有限 ——国信期货棉花周报 2025年12月5日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 棉花市场分析 2 后市展望 一、棉花市场分析 研究所 郑商所棉花期货价格走势 ICE期棉价格走势 研究所 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 2020年1月 2021年1月 2022年1月 2023年1月 2024 年1月 2025年1月 中国棉花价格指数:229 中国棉花价格指数:328 郑棉本周小幅震荡，周度跌幅0.11%。ICE期棉偏弱运行，周跌幅1.37%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 1、现货价格 本周棉花价格指数回升。3128指数较上周上涨148元/吨，2129指数较上周上涨126元/吨。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 2、棉花进口情况 研究所 150,000.00 120,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: 2025-11-25 - Report Type: Cotton (Yarn) Industry Daily Report - Researcher: Wang Cuibing - Researcher's Futures Qualification Number: F03139616 - Researcher's Futures Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021556 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic cotton market has a marginal improvement in demand with support at the lower end, but is suppressed by increased supply at the upper end. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13645, up 60; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 20065, down 10 [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): -97326, down 7854; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): -949, down 445 [2]. - Main contract open interest: cotton (daily, lots): 552401, up 486; main contract open interest: cotton yarn (daily, lots): 18640, down 3060 [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 2319, up 79; warehouse receipt quantity: cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 14, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 14832, up 39; China Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 20660, up 70 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% Tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12792, up 8; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: Sliding Duty (daily, yuan/ton): 13852, up 9 [2]. - Arrival price: Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21052, down 32; Arrival price: Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22312, down 34 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2838.3, up 48.3; National cotton output (annual, ten thousand tons): 616, up 54 [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5828, up 31; Industrial inventory: Cotton: National (monthly, ten thousand tons): 78.5, down 7.6 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton: Import quantity: Monthly value (monthly, ten thousand tons): 9, down 1; Cotton yarn: Import quantity: Monthly value (monthly, tons): 140000, up 10000 [2]. - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 941, up 413; Commercial inventory: Cotton: National (monthly, ten thousand tons): 293.06, up 190.89 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory days: Yarn (monthly, days): 26.12, up 1.27; Inventory days: Grey cloth (monthly, days): 31.97, up 0.85 [2]. - Cloth: Output: Monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 26.2, down 1.8; Yarn: Output: Monthly value (monthly, ten thousand tons): 200.1, down 7.3 [2]. - Clothing and clothing accessories: Export amount: Monthly value (monthly, ten thousand US dollars): 11003480.43, down 1449766.57; Textile yarns, fabrics and products: Export amount: Monthly value (monthly, ten thousand US dollars): 11258418.92, down 708097.08 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility (%): 14.99, up 9.83; Cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility (%): 14.99, up 9.83 [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility (%): 5.79, up 1.06; Cotton 60 - day historical volatility (%): 7.67, up 0.27 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 7, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 70902 lots, a decrease of 1689 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 129324 lots, an increase of 6748 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 58422 lots, an increase of 8437 lots from the previous week [2]. - As of the end of October, according to the China Cotton Association, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 88.82 ten thousand tons, an increase of 6.1 ten thousand tons year - on - year and an increase of 4.27 ten thousand tons month - on - month [2]. - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures rose slightly on Monday. Market participants were waiting for new economic data, and the increasing expectation of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve provided support. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed up 0.15 cents, or 0.23%, at 64.0 cents per pound [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market have few contradictions, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply side will see a large amount of new cotton on the market, with significant production increase in the new year but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side has average recent orders, but previous negative factors have been reflected in the market. Considering the optimistic results of recent Sino-US trade negotiations, short - term cotton prices are expected to be volatile [27][43]. Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: There are few changes in fundamentals, and the US cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 963,100 tons, accounting for 30.7% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 22% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of upland cotton and Pima cotton is slower than the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio is 82.6%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio is 79.5%, 2 percentage points lower year - on - year. The quarterly deliverable ratio has increased slightly month - on - month. The US cotton listing inspection is in the peak period, but the Pima cotton progress is still slow. As of September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 54% week - on - week, and the weekly shipment volume increased by 14% week - on - week [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in the 2025/26 season reached 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase. Textile mills purchased 471,000 tons, and the unsold new cotton was 98,000 tons [8]. - **Brazil**: The 2025/26 production forecast data released by CONAB in November shows that the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 4.077 million tons, remaining stable month - on - month. The planting area is stable at 2.0861 million hectares, and the yield per mu is stable at 130.3 kg. The total cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 4.028 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons month - on - month. The planting area is slightly reduced to 2.1371 million hectares, and the yield per mu is stable at 125.7 kg [8]. - **India**: The Cotton Association of India released the first supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 season. The production is predicted to be 30.5 million bales (170 kg per bale), a decrease of 740,000 bales compared to the 2024/25 season. The consumption is expected to be 30 million bales (a decrease of 1.4 million bales from the previous season). The export is predicted to be 1.7 million bales, and the import is predicted to be 4.5 million bales, indicating that India is expected to be a net importer in the 2025/26 season. The production in all producing areas is expected to decline, with the largest reduction in Haryana and Telangana, and increases in Punjab and Andhra Pradesh [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest September global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons month - on - month. China's total production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons. The total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The new cotton purchase in Xinjiang is coming to an end. As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5%. The new cotton production cost is basically fixed, and the new cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. On November 13, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.23 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.87 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. As of November 6, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton nationwide was 7.082 million tons, an increase of 1.657 million tons compared to the average of the past four years [27]. - **Demand Side**: As of November 6, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 1.22 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, an increase of 1.01 million tons compared to the average of the past four years. As of November 13, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.6%, an increase of 0.31% from the previous week. The yarn inventory of spinning mills in the main areas was 30.2 days, a weekly increase of 0.33% [27]. Option Strategy - Volatility Trend Judgment: The HV on the previous day was 3.9092, and the volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. - Option Strategy Recommendation: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on the previous day was 0.7094, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.8660. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate within a range in the future, and the Zhengzhou cotton price is also expected to oscillate. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [45]. Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal - External Price Difference**: The chart shows the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 spread trend [48][49]. - **Mid - end Situation**: It includes the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, the yarn inventory days, and the grey fabric inventory days [52]. - **Cotton Inventory**: It includes the national cotton commercial inventory, the spinning mills' cotton industrial inventory, the reserve inventory, and the remaining amount of national reserves [54]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It includes the basis of cotton C32S spot - Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contract, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, and the average basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton [57].

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Picking Nears End, Cotton Prices to Fluctuate [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to move sideways due to limited fundamental changes [8]. - The domestic cotton market is likely to oscillate slightly on the stronger side in the short - term. Although there is selling hedging pressure with new cotton hitting the market, the expected increase in production may be lower than previously thought, and the positive outcome of recent Sino - US trade negotiations has been factored into the market [25][42] Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals remain stable, and the market is expected to move sideways. As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 732,700 tons, accounting for 23.3% of the estimated annual production, 22% slower year - on - year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are 80.7% and 78.6% respectively, with the quarterly ratio up slightly. As of September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 54%, and the weekly shipment volume increased by 14% [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton market volume in the 2025/26 season reached 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Brazil**: The IMEA maintains the 2025/26 cotton production forecast in Mato Grosso at 2.62 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous season. However, due to rising production costs and low lint prices, farmers' planting willingness is insufficient [8]. - **India**: The CAI's assessment of the 2024/25 cotton balance sheet remains stable compared to the previous month. The market expects the 2025/26 production to be between 5.525 and 5.61 million tons [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest September forecast by the USDA, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons month - on - month; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and ending stocks decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: New cotton procurement is nearing completion, and prices are stable. The cost of new cotton is fixed, providing support. As of November 6, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.26 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.98 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. The total number of Zhengzhou cotton registered warrants and effective forecasts was 4,281, equivalent to 171,200 tons of cotton [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of November 6, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 65.4%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous week. The spinning mills' cotton inventory was 27.20 days. Although some factories increased their procurement of new cotton, most spinning mills remained on the sidelines [25] Option Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7324, and the trading volume PCR was 0.5889. It is recommended to wait and see [39] Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to move sideways [42]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [42] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: Charts show the historical trends of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 price difference [45][46]. - **Mid - stream Situation**: Data on the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric are presented [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The table shows the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, industrial cotton inventory of spinning mills, and reserve inventory [51]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Charts display the basis trends of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US cotton and the basis between cotton yarn spot and Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contracts [54]

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Acquisition Enters Peak, Cotton Prices Fluctuate Slightly Higher [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the US cotton market will likely remain range - bound, while the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to show a slightly bullish trend in the short term due to stable acquisition prices and unchanged demand [42]. Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals have changed little, and the market is expected to move sideways. The cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton as of October 17, 2025, is 376,700 tons, accounting for 12% of the annual production forecast, 27% slower than the same period last year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are 71% and 77.8% respectively, with the quarterly ratio down 2.8 percentage points month - on - month. As of September 18, 2025, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 54%, and the weekly shipment volume increased by 14% [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in the 2025/26 season reached 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase, with 471,000 tons purchased by textile mills and 98,000 tons unsold [8]. - **Brazil**: As of October 17, the soybean sowing progress in Mato Grosso has accelerated to about 44%, about 18 percentage points faster than the same period last year, which is favorable for subsequent cotton sowing [8]. - **India**: The 2024/25 cotton balance sheet remains stable compared to last month. The beginning inventory increased by 170,000 tons, production decreased by 220,000 tons, imports increased by 400,000 tons, domestic demand increased by 20,000 tons, exports decreased by 180,000 tons, and the ending inventory increased by 520,000 tons compared to the previous year. The market expects the 2025/26 production to be between 5.525 million and 5.61 million tons [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest September global cotton production and sales forecast by the USDA, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons month - on - month. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons, total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The domestic new cotton harvest is in full swing. As of October 22, 2025, the cumulative public inspection volume was 1,013,898 tons, a 71.19% year - on - year increase. As of October 17, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.4334 million tons, a 24.06% increase from the previous week [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of October 16, the operating rate of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.6%, unchanged from the previous week. The inventory of cotton in spinning mills was equivalent to 27.10 days of stock, and the yarn inventory of spinning mills was 30 days, a 0.67% increase from the previous week [25]. - **Overall**: The acquisition progress has entered a peak, acquisition prices are stable, and the market is expected to fluctuate slightly higher in the short term [25]. Option Strategy - Volatility decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [39]. Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: The US cotton market is expected to move sideways, while the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to show a slightly bullish trend. - **Arbitrage**: Short the November contract and long the January contract [42]. Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Mid - stream Situation**: Data on the operating rate of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton greige fabric mills, and inventory days of yarn and greige fabric are presented [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Information on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory is provided [51]. - **Basis Situation**: Data on the basis of cotton futures contracts and the basis of US upland cotton are shown [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the international market, the macro - situation of the US cotton market shows no significant changes. With a high - quality rate at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, the US cotton is expected to show a volatile trend. In the domestic market, as new cotton is being acquired and the acquisition price stabilizes while downstream demand remains unchanged, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][25]. - As new cotton is increasingly on the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand on the demand side is general, with limited improvement, so its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [25][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no obvious changes in the macro - situation and a high - quality rate at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, the US cotton is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 269,100 tons, accounting for 8.6% of the estimated annual US cotton output, 27% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of US upland cotton was 9.57%, 27% slower year - on - year, and the inspection of Pima cotton had not started. The weekly deliverable ratio was 69.2%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 80.6%, 7 percentage points higher year - on - year and 4 percentage points lower quarter - on - quarter [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of September 18, 2025, the weekly contract signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% week - on - week decrease; the weekly shipment volume was 31,100 tons, a 14% week - on - week increase [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of September 23, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 23.65% (a 0.34 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease) [8]. - **Brazil**: The 2024/25 annual cotton output in Brazil is expected to be 4.077 million tons, a 16,000 - ton increase from the previous month. The 2025/26 annual output is expected to be 4.031 million tons, a 46,000 - ton decrease year - on - year [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan in the 2025/26 season reached 472,000 tons, a 49% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest September global cotton production and sales forecast by the USDA, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a 230,000 - ton month - on - month increase; the total consumption was 25.68 million tons, an 184,000 - ton increase; the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The domestic new cotton harvesting is in a high - incidence period. The harvesting progress in northern Xinjiang is nearly 80%, and about 30% in southern Xinjiang. The market speculates on the production reduction in southern Xinjiang, driving up the seed cotton price. As of October 16, 2025, the operating rate of national ginneries increased to 76.9%, a 62.5% increase from the previous week. As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection volume was 491,499 tons, a 113.21% year - on - year increase. As of October 10, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.1554 million tons, a 174,600 - ton (17.80%) increase from the previous week [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.6%, a 0.20% increase from the previous week. The yarn inventory of spinning mills decreased by 1% month - on - month [25]. 3.3 Option Strategy - Volatility Trend: The HV on the previous day was 8.4519, with a slight decrease in volatility. - Option Strategy Recommendation: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7661, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.8549. Both call and put trading volumes increased. It is recommended to wait and see [39]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: During the holiday, as new cotton is being acquired, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. With a high cotton output in Xinjiang and general acquisition enthusiasm of ginneries, there is no large - scale rush for acquisition. As new cotton is increasingly on the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand is general, with limited improvement, so its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [42]. - **Single - Side Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton will mostly fluctuate in the future, and the Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time [42]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [42]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Mid - end Situation**: Information on the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn inventory days, and grey fabric inventory days is presented through historical data charts [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory from 2015 to 2024 are provided [51]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: Information on the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the average basis of US upland cotton in seven major markets, and the basis between the spot price of C32S cotton yarn and the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton yarn is presented through historical data charts [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 slightly increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.08%. The price of the December contract of US cotton decreased, with a weekly decline of about 0.16%. The price of the main contract of cotton yarn futures 2601 increased by about 0.49% [5][12][23]. - In the domestic market, the estimated total cotton output in 2025 is 727,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, and an upward adjustment of 62,000 tons from the previous period. The current mainstream price of new cotton is around 6.1 yuan/kg, and the cost is still generally supported. The operating rate of textile enterprises is still low, and the peak season continues to show weak performance. It is expected that the replenishment enthusiasm of textile enterprises will be low in the later period. In the new year, the centralized acquisition and processing of cotton will bring a large number of hedging needs, with significant upward pressure and cost support below. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate in the short term [5]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract [6]. - Future trading should pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 slightly increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.08% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In the domestic market, supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December contract of US cotton decreased, with a weekly decline of about 0.16%. As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 69,367 lots, a decrease of 751 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 114,787 lots, an increase of 2020 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 45,420 lots, an increase of 2771 lots from the previous week [12]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: In the week ending September 18, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86,100 bales. The current international cotton spot price is 74.85 cents/lb, a decrease of 1.2 cents/lb from the previous week [16]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract slightly increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.08%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract increased by about 0.49%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 82,062 lots, and those in cotton yarn futures were - 447 lots. The warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures were 2653 lots, and those of cotton yarn futures were 0 lots [23][29][35]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,679 yuan/ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,440 yuan/ton [41][51]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of October 16, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 13,878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,851 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan/ton from the previous week. The estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - duty was 786 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,813 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous week [56][59]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34%. The industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was stable with a slight decrease. In August 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons or 51.6% [62][68]. - **Demand Side**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 days; the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3 days. In September 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [71][76][80]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: There is information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week, but no specific data is given [81]. - **Stock Market**: There is a graph of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongfa (600359), but no specific analysis is provided [84].