Core Viewpoint - The report from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a mixed performance in the real estate market of Hefei, with new home prices showing slight recovery while second-hand home prices continue to face downward pressure [1][6]. Group 1: Hefei Real Estate Market Performance - In October, Hefei's new home prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month and 0.4% year-on-year, marking the first positive year-on-year growth in recent times [1][6]. - The second-hand home market in Hefei saw a month-on-month decline of 0.7% and a year-on-year drop of 6.5%, indicating ongoing challenges [1][6]. - Overall, the Hefei real estate market is experiencing a structural differentiation trend, with new homes stabilizing while second-hand homes are still adjusting [2][6]. Group 2: Trends in Other Cities - As of November 11, several cities have reported significant increases in second-hand home transaction volumes, with Beijing seeing a 143% month-on-month increase [6]. - Other cities like Shanghai and Xiamen also reported substantial increases of 98% in second-hand home transactions, indicating a broader market recovery [6]. - The overall market activity is gaining attention from various media outlets, highlighting a resurgence in real estate transactions across multiple cities [6]. Group 3: Price Adjustments in Hefei - There has been a noticeable increase in the number of "price-increasing listings" in Hefei's second-hand home market, with some sellers raising their asking prices [12]. - Specific properties in Hefei have seen significant price hikes overnight, with increases ranging from 15 million to 122 million yuan for various units [13].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong mortgage market shows signs of recovery, with an increase in existing property mortgage registrations in October, reaching 6,463, a month-on-month increase of 7.1% [1] - New property mortgage registrations fell to 595, a decrease of 44% month-on-month, attributed to a reduction in the number of large new developments launched [1] - The overall market sentiment is improving, driven by lower interest rates following the U.S. rate cuts, which is expected to encourage more buyers and investors to enter the market [1] Group 1: Existing Property Mortgages - In October, existing property mortgage registrations totaled 6,463, marking a 7.1% increase from the previous month, and maintaining above 6,000 for three consecutive months [1] - The market is showing sustained strength, with expectations for continued positive growth in mortgage registrations for the year [1] Group 2: New Property Mortgages - New property mortgage registrations dropped to 595 in October, a significant decline of 44% from the previous month, primarily due to fewer large new projects being launched [1] - Year-to-date figures indicate a strong performance in new property mortgages, with a 78.2% year-on-year increase in registrations, totaling 5,971 [2] Group 3: Market Share Analysis - In October, Bank of China (Hong Kong) saw its market share for existing property mortgages decrease by 1.6 percentage points to 33.5%, while HSBC's market share fell by 0.1 percentage points to 19.9% [1] - For new property mortgages, HSBC's market share decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24%, while Bank of China (Hong Kong) dropped by 3.9 percentage points to 20.3% [2] - Hang Seng Bank and Standard Chartered Bank saw increases in their market shares for both existing and new property mortgages, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [1][2]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a revival driven by policy relaxations, with major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai implementing measures to boost buyer confidence and market activity [5]. Policy Changes - Over 200 cities have introduced more than 510 real estate policies by the end of October, marking the most intensive market rescue season in history [5]. - Key measures include the removal of purchase restrictions in certain areas, adjustments to mortgage rates, and increased subsidies for families with three children [5]. Market Response - The transaction volume of second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has surged by 30% year-on-year, indicating a significant recovery in market confidence [5]. - Developers are adopting innovative marketing strategies, such as offering parking spaces in live-streaming sessions and various discounts, making the market more accessible [5]. Future Outlook - The future of the real estate market is expected to shift from price competition to a focus on quality, emphasizing living experience and stability of expectations [5]. - The new guiding principles for the market are "stabilizing expectations, activating demand, and optimizing supply," reflecting the shift towards high-quality development [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recovery of the real estate market is influenced by five key signals, primarily driven by the overall economy rather than the real estate sector itself [2] - The first signal is the economy emerging from a deflationary period, indicating that economic recovery is essential for the real estate market to rebound [2] - The second signal focuses on residents' income expectations, highlighting that demand issues stem from a lack of confidence in future employment and income rather than just financial constraints [4] Group 2 - The third signal emphasizes urbanization driven by employment, noting that true urbanization is a transformation of living conditions rather than merely expanding city boundaries [5] - The fourth signal discusses land becoming a scarce commodity, warning against artificial expansion of mega-cities and advocating for restrictions on land auctions to address oversupply in the real estate market [7] - The fifth signal pertains to restoring the financial attributes of real estate, which include mortgage financing, asset pricing, and wealth storage, as the decline in investment consumption has significantly impacted property sales [8] Group 3 - The sixth signal identifies the liquidity of the secondary housing market as a leading indicator of real estate trends, suggesting that revitalizing this market could shift expectations and improve the overall market outlook [10]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Power Generation Industry - The thermal power industry benefits from a significant decrease in coal costs, with Q3 performance continuing the recovery trend. The expected bottom for coal prices provides confidence for electricity price negotiations, and the anticipated increase in capacity prices improves the industry's business model. However, attention is needed on the potential impact of coal supply and demand changes on costs [1][4][7]. - The hydropower sector experienced significant fluctuations in Q3 due to the flood season, but the unexpected autumn floods may lead to an upward adjustment of the annual power generation target. Key players like the Yangtze River Basin, Sichuan Investment, and Huaneng Hydropower show strong competitiveness [1][5]. - Nuclear power has a confirmed long-term growth potential, with a peak in new unit commissioning expected in 2027. The acceleration of new unit approvals and the macroeconomic backdrop of declining interest rates enhance its influence, although market-oriented trading may exert short-term pressure on performance [1][6]. Construction and Building Materials - Silver Dragon Co. benefits from an increased proportion of high-strength product usage and overseas business expansion, with Q3 performance expected to maintain high growth rates. Emerging businesses in aerospace steel wire products show strong competitiveness [1][8]. - Three Trees reported growth in revenue and net profit in Q3, driven by demand for existing and second-hand housing, and accelerated development of high-margin retail formats. The trend of domestic substitution is evident [1][8]. - Rabbit Baby's stock price increase is attributed to sector rotation and its low valuation with high dividend characteristics. Q3 revenue growth is expected to turn positive, with investment income enhancing performance and maintaining a high dividend yield [1][9]. - Huanxin Cement's mid-year performance saw a significant increase, with domestic and international cement business net profit per ton rising. The acquisition of Nigerian cement assets enhances performance, supported by supply-side reform logic [2][10]. Market Trends and Insights Market Sentiment and Style Changes - Recent changes in market sentiment and style have positively impacted the public utility sector, with the utility index rising nearly 3% since October, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by about 3% [3]. Real Estate Market Dynamics - During the National Day holiday, the real estate market showed signs of recovery, with first-tier cities experiencing slight growth and third-tier cities seeing a 20% year-on-year increase. However, second-hand housing transactions showed a significant decline [11]. - High-frequency data indicates a doubling of new housing supply in core cities from August, with a 30%-40% year-on-year increase. This suggests a positive outlook for future sales driven by optimistic expectations [12]. Future Policy Expectations - The fourth quarter is expected to maintain a loose policy tone, with ongoing implementation of real estate storage and urban renewal policies. There is also an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, creating a favorable environment for the real estate sector [15]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on pure development companies, particularly smaller and mid-sized real estate firms that may experience valuation recovery or fundamental-driven trading opportunities due to improving policy expectations and fundamentals [16].

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market showed significant improvement during the National Day holiday, with a notable increase in both new and second-hand home transactions [2][3][11] Market Performance - From October 1 to October 7, the number of second-hand home transactions in Shenzhen increased by 15% compared to the week before the holiday, while new home transactions surged by 120% [2] - The month following the implementation of the "9.5 real estate policy" saw a 49% increase in new home viewings and a 46% increase in new home transactions compared to the previous month [4] - Official data from the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau indicated that from September 6 to October 6, new residential contracts reached 2,824 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.48%, while second-hand residential contracts reached 3,699 units, up 32.63% [5] Policy Impact - The "9.5 real estate policy" has had a significant positive effect on the market, with developers showing increased confidence in launching new projects [3][4] - A total of 16 new projects received pre-sale permits in September, compared to only 6 in August, indicating a strong market response to the new policy [5] Sales Strategies - Developers are adopting new sales strategies, such as launching projects in phases to create a sense of urgency and excitement among buyers [7] - During the holiday, several projects offered significant discounts, with some properties being marketed at prices below the average market rate [8] Market Trends - The overall transaction volume for the first nine months of the year showed a year-on-year increase, with new home transactions up by 22% and second-hand home transactions up by 17% [11] - The market is expected to face some pressure in the coming months due to the high base effect from last year and the narrowing space for policy support [11]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in September continues to show high volatility, driven by the concentration of hot properties in core cities and enhanced marketing efforts during the strong sales period, leading to a year-on-year increase in short-term project sales rates [1][31]. Market Performance - In the first half of September, the transaction volume of new homes in 30 key cities decreased by 6% year-on-year, with a total area of 159.3 million square meters sold [4][5]. - The average sales rate for projects in these cities was 38%, a slight decrease of 4 percentage points from August 2025 but an increase of 11 percentage points compared to September 2024 [5]. City Classification - Cities are categorized into three types based on their market performance: 1. **Core First and Second Tier Cities**: Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu have seen project sales rates significantly influenced by the quality of new supply, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu performing better than the same period last year [7][10]. 2. **Weak Recovery Cities**: Cities such as Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Tianjin are experiencing a low recovery, with increased visitor and subscription rates due to the launch of hot properties [8][14]. 3. **Cities with Declining Demand**: Cities like Xi'an, Zhengzhou, and Nanjing are facing a decline in subscription volumes, leading to a drop in customer conversion rates and a prevailing wait-and-see attitude among buyers [8][23]. Specific City Insights - **Beijing**: The sales rate dropped to 6% due to limited new launches, a decrease of 16 percentage points from August and 18 percentage points from September 2024 [10][11]. - **Shanghai**: The sales rate improved by 4 percentage points from August to 57%, and by 12 percentage points compared to September 2024 [11]. - **Guangzhou**: The market showed signs of recovery with increased visitor and subscription rates in the second week of September, leading to a rise in customer conversion rates [14][18]. - **Wuhan**: The market heat increased due to new launches, with a sales rate of 60% in early September, up 26 percentage points from July [21][20]. - **Xi'an**: The market faced a bottleneck with a drop in customer conversion rates to 2.25%, the lowest in nearly a year [23]. Overall Market Outlook - The September market is characterized by high volatility, with core cities benefiting from the concentration of desirable properties and strong marketing efforts, while other cities show varied recovery potential [31].

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing Municipal Planning and Natural Resources Committee has released a list of eight residential land plots for supply in 2025, covering approximately 27 hectares and a building scale of about 630,000 square meters, with supply expected soon [1] Group 1: Land Supply Details - The eight plots are distributed across various regions: one in the core area (Dongcheng District), two in the central urban area (Chaoyang District), and five in the sub-center and plain areas (one each in Tongzhou, Shunyi, Changping, Daxing, and Fangshan Districts) [1] - All supplied plots are located near subway lines, including a rare plot within the Second Ring Road [2] Group 2: Notable Land Plots - A significant plot within the Second Ring Road is located in Dongcheng District, with a planned above-ground building area of 25,000 square meters, close to major hospitals and shopping centers [3] - Another noteworthy plot is the Yong'anli Old City Reconstruction Project in Chaoyang District, situated within the Third Ring Road and adjacent to subway lines [4] Group 3: Market Trends - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a mild recovery in the housing market, with July showing a decrease in new residential sales prices across major cities, but the decline is narrowing [5] - In August, the transaction volume in first-tier cities decreased significantly, but the cumulative transactions for the first eight months still show a year-on-year increase of 4% [5] - The introduction of relaxed purchasing policies in Beijing and Shanghai in August may influence market recovery, with expectations for increased supply and improved market conditions as the "Golden September" approaches [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Weak [2] - **Glass**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillating [2] - **Stock Index Futures/Options (Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500)**: Oscillating; CSI 1000: Downward [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds (2 - year, 5 - year)**: Oscillating; 10 - year: Rebounding [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillating strongly [4] - **Pulp**: Consolidating [6] - **Logs**: Weakly oscillating [6] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil)**: Oscillating [6] - **Meal (Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2)**: Oscillating weakly; Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillating strongly [7] - **Rubber**: Oscillating [9] - **PX**: On - hold [9] - **PTA**: Oscillating [9] - **MEG**: On - hold [9] - **PR**: On - hold [9] - **PF**: On - hold [9] 2. Core Views - The steel industry's stable - growth policy from 2025 - 2026 does not restrict steel production, which boosts raw material sentiment. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions and are expected to oscillate at high levels following finished products. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are weakening, and the black sector is expected to oscillate weakly. The fundamentals of rebar are weak, and it is expected to run weakly. The glass market sentiment has cooled, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly [2]. - The stock index market is generally weak, and it is recommended to control risk preference and reduce long positions in stock indexes. The Shanghai property market's "Shanghai Six Measures" have had a positive effect, and the future property market transactions are expected to rise steadily. The bond market aims for stable and healthy development through the cooperation of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and short - term data supports the rise in gold prices. The uncertainty of tariffs and concerns about the Fed's independence stimulate safe - haven funds to flow into gold, and gold is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. - The pulp market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, but the rising space of pulp prices may be limited due to over - capacity. The supply pressure of logs is not large, and the peak season expectation remains to be verified, with prices expected to run weakly. The raw material supply of edible oils is relatively loose, and they are expected to oscillate in the short term. The meal market is affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and high supply, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - The supply of live pigs is affected by weight - loss strategies, and the demand is expected to increase with school openings. The price of live pigs is expected to rise slightly next week. The supply of rubber is affected by weather, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term. The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand, with different trends [7][9]. 3. Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The stable - growth policy of the steel industry boosts raw material sentiment. The fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels following finished products. The "restricted production" in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on iron ore demand. The global iron ore shipment has declined slightly, and there is no obvious inventory - building pressure under high port clearance [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are weakening, with continuous inventory accumulation and weakening downstream orders. The supply is increasing, and the demand is at a new low since the second quarter. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: The fundamentals are weak. The supply will remain at a relatively high level, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance. The inventory is accumulating, and the spot demand is weak. The rebar 2601 contract is expected to run weakly [2]. - **Glass**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The spot price in Hubei has improved slightly, and the key lies in the cold - repair path for the 01 contract. The long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is generally weak, and it is recommended to control risk preference and reduce long positions in stock indexes. Different stock indexes have different trends, and sectors such as precious metals and power grids have capital inflows, while sectors such as diversified finance and aerospace and military industry have capital outflows [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has declined, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Property Market**: The "Shanghai Six Measures" in the Shanghai property market have had a positive effect, and the future property market transactions are expected to rise steadily, which is expected to lead the recovery of the property market in first - and second - tier cities [4]. Precious Metals Industry - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and short - term data supports the rise in gold prices. The uncertainty of tariffs and concerns about the Fed's independence stimulate safe - haven funds to flow into gold, and gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports pulp prices, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. The market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate and rise, but the rising space may be limited [6]. - **Logs**: The supply pressure is not large, and the peak season expectation remains to be verified. The spot price is running weakly, and the delivery willingness is weak, with prices expected to run weakly [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Edible Oils**: The raw material supply is relatively loose, and the demand for industrial and high - end oil products is increasing. The inventory situation of different oils varies, and they are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Meal**: Affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and high supply, it is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply is affected by weight - loss strategies, and the demand is expected to increase with school openings. The price is expected to rise slightly next week [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, but the approaching military parade in early September may have an impact on downstream operations [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The PX price follows oil price fluctuations, and the PTA supply - demand situation has improved. The MEG supply pressure is increasing, and the PR and PF markets are expected to run weakly [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy changes in Shanghai's real estate market, known as "沪六条," are expected to stabilize and improve the market, leading to increased transaction volumes and a potential recovery in major cities across China [1][10]. Policy Impact - The new policies have reduced housing purchase restrictions and enhanced the ability to withdraw housing provident funds, significantly lowering the barriers for homebuyers [2][8]. - Following the policy implementation, there has been a notable increase in project visitations, with some projects reporting a 50% rise in visitor numbers [2]. Market Response - Newly launched projects, such as those by Poly Developments, experienced strong sales, with one project achieving over 400 million yuan in sales on its opening day [3][5]. - The second-hand housing market also saw a resurgence, with over 1,100 units sold in a single day, marking a significant recovery after two months of lower activity [6]. Future Outlook - The upcoming months, traditionally known as "金九银十," are expected to see heightened market activity, driven by the recent policy changes and increased buyer confidence [7][10]. - Analysts predict that the new policies will lead to a sustained increase in transaction volumes, particularly in the outer ring areas of Shanghai, which have been under pressure [9]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is optimistic, with expectations that the policy changes will activate demand and alleviate inventory pressures [9]. - Industry experts believe that the current market conditions will support a gradual recovery, positioning Shanghai as a leader in the revival of real estate markets in other major cities [10].