显示通缩压力大小的中国GDP平减指数的4～6月比去年同期下降1.3%，连续9个季度下滑。这与日本 2011年10～12月创出的下降1.4%持平。仅仅从物价动向来看，可以说中国经济的 "日本化" 趋势正在变 得明显…… 当局5月中旬修改了厉行节约的条例，禁止官员和公务员在接待会餐时提供高档菜肴和烟酒。这一节俭 令也加速了白酒等产品的需求下降。 在中国，与经济停滞相伴随的过度降价现象越来越明显。在民众日常使用的外卖APP上甚至出现了免费 提供商品的服务，高档酒和品牌商品也出现了价格下降。从最近的物价统计反映出的通货紧缩压力，与 日本2011年东日本大地震后经历的日元升值通紧不相上下。 "零元买了两次汉堡"，住在上海市的女性公司职员在7月上旬，免费获得了中国资本的快餐店的商品。 使用了最大的外卖平台美团在APP上发放的优惠券。 在中国的外卖行业,价格战越来越激烈。在美团和阿里巴巴集团旗下的饿了么持续垄断的市场，今年进 入了互联网巨头京东集团。发生了发放优惠券等顾客争夺战。 7月上旬，阿里巴巴宣布将在未来一年投入500亿元人民币作为降价资金。京东也表示将投资100亿元。 使用外卖软件就可以零元下单，引起了话题。 过度 ...

Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts China's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 to be 5.2%, significantly higher than the average of other major economies [1] - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, a recovery of 0.2 percentage points from May's -0.1% [1] Real Estate Trends - Since 2022, domestic housing prices have been in a long-term decline, with significant drops in third and fourth-tier cities, and now first-tier cities are also experiencing price declines [5] - From July, housing price declines in previously affected second and third-tier cities are expected to slow down, while first-tier cities will see further price drops [5] Banking and Investment Behavior - There has been a significant outflow of bank deposits, with a total decrease of 2.46 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, compared to an increase of 987.3 billion yuan in the same period last year [8] - In May alone, 1.17 trillion yuan in deposits evaporated, marking four consecutive months of net outflow [8] - Residents are shifting their savings from banks to stocks, funds, and wealth management products, although this comes with higher risks [8] Marriage Trends - The number of marriage registrations has been declining, with only 1.81 million couples registered, a decrease of 159,000 couples or 8.1% year-on-year, reaching a historical low [13] - New policies are expected to make marriage registration more convenient, potentially leading to a rebound in marriage registrations in the second half of the year [13] Artificial Intelligence Impact - The era of artificial intelligence is upon us, with increasing automation in various sectors, including transportation, customer service, and manufacturing [14] - Many repetitive jobs are expected to be replaced by AI, highlighting the need for individuals to acquire skills related to AI to enhance their earning potential [14]

Group 1 - The Chinese consumer market is undergoing a significant adjustment characterized by a widespread price drop affecting various sectors, including housing, automotive, and consumer goods [1][3] - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in property prices, with major cities like Shanghai seeing a drop of over 30% from peak prices, and a significant decrease in new home sales [5] - The automotive industry is facing an "epic price war," with over 30 major car manufacturers participating in substantial price cuts, leading to a profit margin decline to 3.9% in the first quarter of 2025 [7] Group 2 - The home appliance market is witnessing a price reduction of 10-15% across common appliances, with new products being priced significantly lower than previous flagship models [9] - The overall consumer price index (CPI) in China showed a slight decrease of 0.1% in the first half of 2025, indicating potential deflationary risks despite increased purchasing power for cash holders [10][13] - The economic landscape is shifting, and companies that adapt to the changing price dynamics and understand the underlying economic logic will be better positioned for future cycles [12]

Economic Overview - Starting from 2025, China's economy is entering a deflationary cycle, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to decline by 0.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] - The deflationary environment is causing anxiety among businesses and job seekers due to a sluggish consumer market and rising unemployment [1] Price Decline Trends - **Housing Market**: Housing prices are projected to continue declining, with significant drops observed in both second and first-tier cities. For instance, in Shanghai, housing prices fell from over 96,000 yuan per square meter in 2021 to over 65,000 yuan per square meter by the first half of 2025, representing a decline of over 30% [5] - **Automobile Industry**: The automotive market is experiencing substantial price reductions, with mid-range vehicles seeing price cuts of 15,000 to 20,000 yuan, and luxury imports dropping nearly 100,000 yuan. This trend is expected to persist due to decreased middle-class income and increased competition from new energy vehicles [7] - **Small Appliances**: A price drop of 10-15% is anticipated in small appliances such as air fryers and washing machines, driven by rapid product turnover and stagnant consumer income growth [9] - **Pork Prices**: Pork prices have fallen below 20 yuan per kilogram, currently ranging from 16 to 17 yuan, nearly halving from previous years. This decline is attributed to oversupply in the market and changing consumer preferences towards leaner meats [11] Consumer Impact - The deflationary cycle presents both advantages and disadvantages. While consumers may benefit from increased purchasing power and lower prices, industries and workers face heightened anxiety due to reduced demand and potential job losses [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the central bank indicates a significant outflow of bank deposits, with a total decrease of 2.46 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, contrasting with an increase of 987.3 billion yuan in the same period last year. The month of May alone saw a direct evaporation of 1.17 trillion yuan in deposits, marking four consecutive months of net outflow, raising concerns about the declining attractiveness of bank deposits, particularly for small and medium-sized banks [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Deposit Outflow - The continuous reduction of bank deposit interest rates over the past two years has led to rates dropping to historical lows in the "1 era," prompting depositors to seek better returns elsewhere [4]. - Many depositors are increasingly investing in bank wealth management products, with a notable increase of 2.1 trillion yuan in April, bringing the total scale to 31.3 trillion yuan, as the annualized yield of these products (2.4%-2.8%) significantly exceeds that of traditional bank deposits [6]. - A substantial portion of the outflow, approximately 33.4% or 820 billion yuan, has been redirected to the A-share market, with new retail investor accounts surging by 62.3%, adding 8.73 million new investors [9]. - Public funds have seen a dramatic increase, with the total scale surpassing 29.7 trillion yuan by the end of May, reflecting a 3.6 trillion yuan increase since the beginning of the year, as many individuals prefer professional management over direct stock investments [12]. - Some individuals are withdrawing deposits to pay off mortgages early, motivated by the disparity between previous mortgage rates (5.88%) and current rates (around 3%), as well as declining property values [14]. Group 2: Impact on Consumption - The decline in deposit interest income has led some depositors to increase their consumption, contributing to a recovery in the low-end consumer market, with retail sales reaching 19.3 trillion yuan in the first five months, a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [16]. - While low-end consumption is rebounding, demand for high-end goods such as automobiles, luxury items, and real estate remains sluggish, indicating a mixed recovery in consumer spending [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing offensive and defensive assets in investment portfolios, particularly during uncertain market conditions. Defensive assets serve as a "stabilizing force" to protect investors' wealth amidst market volatility [2][32]. Group 1: Understanding Defensive Assets - Defensive assets are categorized as those that maintain stable intrinsic value and exhibit lower price volatility during market fluctuations, contrasting with risk assets that are more sensitive to market changes [4]. - The two primary functions of defensive assets are to reduce portfolio volatility and provide high credit quality and liquidity, ensuring stable cash flow during market downturns [4]. Group 2: Types of Defensive Assets - **Cash and Cash Equivalents**: High safety and liquidity, including money market funds that can be accessed anytime without fees [6][8]. - **Bond Assets**: Fixed income with potential for interest and price appreciation, with government bonds offering more stability than corporate bonds [10][11]. - **Dividend Assets**: Provide regular cash flow through dividends, performing well in bear markets and benefiting from valuation recovery in bull markets [14][15]. - **Gold**: Recognized as a "safe haven" asset during crises, maintaining value better than fiat currencies [16][18]. - **Commodities**: Stable demand and serve as a hedge against inflation, with specific commodities like oil and metals being particularly relevant during supply disruptions [20][21]. Group 3: Performance of Defensive Assets in Different Scenarios - **Economic Deflation**: Bond assets perform best due to liquidity and declining interest rates, while commodities lag [24][26]. - **Stagflation**: Commodities excel as inflation rises, while bonds struggle due to tightening monetary policy [28]. - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Gold prices tend to rise significantly during conflicts, reflecting its status as a hard currency [30][31]. Group 4: Conclusion - In the current complex investment landscape, incorporating defensive assets into portfolios is essential. Diversifying across different types of defensive assets can enhance overall portfolio resilience [32].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment in China is characterized by significant monetary expansion leading to potential inflation, yet consumer prices are experiencing deflation, creating a paradox for cash holders who may benefit from increased purchasing power [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The M2 money supply reached 326.06 trillion yuan in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, indicating severe monetary overexpansion [1]. - Despite the monetary expansion, the consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in Q1, suggesting a deflationary trend in the economy [1][3]. - The deflation is attributed to two main factors: funds not flowing into the goods market and a decline in consumer demand due to economic downturns, leading to significant inventory accumulation [3]. Group 2: Advantages of Holding Cash - Cash holders are experiencing increased purchasing power, as prices for goods such as pork have dropped from 26-28 yuan per jin to 18-20 yuan per jin, and mid-range cars have decreased in price from 250,000 yuan to 160,000-180,000 yuan [5]. - Holding cash allows individuals to avoid risks associated with financial markets, where stock market losses have averaged 140,000 yuan per investor in 2024, and public funds have seen losses of 20-30% [7]. - In times of economic uncertainty, having cash provides a safety net against unemployment and unexpected expenses, allowing individuals to navigate financial difficulties more comfortably [9]. - Cash holders are positioned to seize new investment opportunities as asset prices decline during the deflationary cycle, enabling them to acquire undervalued assets in the future [11].