氧化铝周报 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 2026 年 1 月 19 日 供应维持高开工率 氧化铝压力未减 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端，国产矿北方矿区复产节奏缓慢，南方稳定生 产，国产矿价稳定。进口矿几内亚铝土矿发运稳 定；澳大利亚受雨季影响，矿山开采及发运仍处低 位，交投清淡。供应端山西地区前期减产产能继续 复产，其他地区开工保持稳定，整体开工较上周继 续小幅增加0.31%至80.82%。下游电解铝企业产能 稳定，采购执行长单为主。氧化铝仓单库存17.7万 吨周内增加10237吨。 ⚫ 整体，氧化铝基本面仍利空主导，供应端仍未见集 中减产迹象，开工产能保持高位，同时进口窗口开 启，供应过剩局面延续。前期氧化铝期货价格快速 上涨，现货资源流向交割库存，集中交仓增加了显 性库存压力。氧化铝基本面利空，预计承压再度下 寻支撑。 ⚫ 风险因素：矿端扰动，氧化铝集中减产 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Consider the fundamentals strong, maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold previous long positions, and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - level changes and supply - side recovery [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilizes, the futures price fluctuates and declines, and the contango arbitrage window closes. In December, the market remains in a weak supply - demand situation. It is expected that the price will remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - In December, the supply exceeds demand, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. The price is under pressure. For futures, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, consider taking profits and closing positions [6]. Nickel - The nickel price has limited upward driving force. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [7]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to remain in a weak oscillation, with the main operating range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the implementation of steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [9]. Alumina - The oversupply situation of alumina suppresses the price, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference operating range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton. Observe the actual production - cut scale and inventory inflection point [15]. Aluminum - It is expected that the aluminum price will remain strong in the short term, with the main contract reference operating range of 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the sustainability of inventory depletion [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Supported by cost and demand, the short - term price trend of casting aluminum alloy is strong, with the main contract reference operating range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap - aluminum supply and inventory depletion [17]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure eases, and the downward price space is limited in the short term, but the upside elasticity is also limited. The main reference range is 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [19]. Copper - The copper price runs at a high level. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the price bottom. The main support range is 86000 - 87000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [20]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 304700 yuan/ton, down 1.14%; LME 0 - 3 premium is 150.00 dollars/ton, up 21.95% [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For example, the spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 820 yuan/ton, down 22.39% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon is 9550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 increased by 41.98% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 250.00% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in the month - on - month comparison, and Xinjiang's production increased by 0.83% [5]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feeding material is 52350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the N - type material basis increased by 25.96% [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of the front - month to the first - following month decreased by 50.10% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 11.44%, and monthly production decreased by 14.48% [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 119900 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 2.08% [7]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 is - 230 yuan/ton, down [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis decreased by 4.71% [9]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 is - 70 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 0.72%, and the net export volume decreased by 21.54% [9]. Alumina - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 21710 yuan/ton, down 0.09%; the average price of alumina in Shandong is 2760 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [14][16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of AL 2512 - 2601 is - 40.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [14][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [14][16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in Southwest China is 21600 yuan/ton, up 0.47%; the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 1.77% [17]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 45.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84% [17]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22740 yuan/ton, up 0.80%; the import profit and loss is - 5470 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 45 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and in October, imports decreased by 16.94% [19]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 88660 yuan/ton, down 0.69%; the refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.99% [20]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 50 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and in October, imports decreased by 15.61% [20].

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent fluctuations in alumina futures have been influenced by negative factors, with main contract prices hovering around 2750 CNY/ton [1] - China's bauxite production in September was 4.8821 million tons, down 2.32% year-on-year, with supply tight due to ongoing rainy season impacts in Shanxi and Henan [1] - Domestic bauxite imports in September reached 15.8806 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.17% but a year-on-year increase of 38.26% [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - In September, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.52% and a year-on-year increase of 10% [2] - As of October 17, the total alumina production capacity in China was 11.462 million tons, with operational capacity at 9.715 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons from the previous week [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in September was 3.6148 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.14% [4] Group 3: Pricing and Inventory - Domestic alumina total inventory reached 4.639 million tons as of October 10, with a weekly increase of 63,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 721,000 tons [2] - The FOB alumina price from Western Australia was reported at 323 USD/ton as of October 16, down 15% from the July peak [3] - The domestic alumina market is expected to experience price stabilization due to high absolute inventory levels and reduced profit margins for alumina plants [1][2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The alumina market is anticipated to face oversupply pressure, with potential large-scale production cuts expected in November [6] - The overall economic environment in China is stable, with expectations of enhanced resilience due to policy support [6] - The alumina futures market is projected to experience a bottoming-out trend, with a support level around 2700 CNY/ton [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Overseas supply growth trend is hard to reverse, and the opening of the import window exacerbates the oversupply situation in the domestic market. Since 2025, overseas alumina production has continued to increase, with the increments mainly from India and Indonesia, while Australia's production has remained basically flat. The import window opened in early September due to the rapid decline in overseas prices, and the increase in imports is expected to further intensify the domestic oversupply situation. Alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure until there are large - scale production cuts due to losses [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Overseas Alumina Supply Side - Overall overseas production: In the first nine months of 2025, overseas alumina cumulative production was 46.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.06%. In September 2025, the output reached 5.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The increasing trend of overseas alumina production is expected to continue until there are large - scale production cuts due to losses [4]. - Production in major countries: - Australia: In September 2025, Australia's alumina output was 1.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.23%. The cumulative output in the first nine months was 13.14 million tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.55% [5]. - India: In September 2025, India's alumina output was 0.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. The cumulative output in the first nine months was 6.52 million tons, a year - on - year significant increase of 5.8%, with the increment mainly from the continuous output expansion of Vedanta smelter [5]. - Indonesia: In September 2025, Indonesia's alumina output was 0.4984 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.21%. The cumulative output in the first nine months was 4.08 million tons, a year - on - year significant increase of 37.48%. With the continuous ramping up of Nanshan Aluminum's capacity, Indonesia's alumina output is expected to increase further this year. There will still be large increments in India and Indonesia in 2026 and 2027 [5]. - Overseas alumina production plan: The total planned production capacity to be put into operation is 11.5 million tons, with 4.5 million tons in 2025, 6 million tons in 2026, and 1 million tons in 2027 [19]. Overseas Price Collapse and Increased Domestic Import Pressure - Overseas price: As of October 9, the FOB price of Australian alumina was $319/ton, down $58 from the high in early August and down 52% from the beginning of the year. The rapid decline in overseas prices led to the opening of the domestic import window in early September [20]. - Domestic import situation: As of October 9, the domestic alumina import profit and loss was 58 yuan/ton. The increase in imports is expected to further exacerbate the domestic oversupply situation, and alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure until there are large - scale production cuts due to losses [20][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] Core Viewpoints - The alumina supply continues to rise, and the import window further expands. The domestic alumina supply surplus is increasing due to the release of复产 and new production capacity, and the overseas alumina supply surplus is also growing. The import window has opened, putting pressure on domestic prices. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In the north, safety and environmental protection rectification in Shanxi continued, and safety controls tightened in Henan and Shanxi near the National Day. In the south, the rainy season in Guangxi affected mining but not downstream production. The spot price of Guinean bauxite decreased, and the long - term agreement price for the fourth quarter is undetermined. Newly arrived ore was 359.9 million tons, including 282.3 million tons from Guinea and 77.6 million tons from Australia. The shipping freight from Guinea to China increased [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The futures rebounded in the middle of the week, and trading volume increased. The import profit expanded. The domestic alumina full - cost was 2900 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 177 yuan/ton. The national alumina production capacity in operation increased by 40 million tons to 9795 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.15% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of Yunnan Honghe New Materials Co., Ltd. increased by 4 million tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 4 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged [14] - **Inventory**: The national alumina inventory increased by 3.9 million tons to 371.9 million tons. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises generally increased, with regional differences. Alumina enterprise inventory slightly increased, port inventory fluctuated, and in - transit/in - warehouse/on - platform inventory continued to rise [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 17703 tons to 150393 tons [15] 2. Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - In August 2025, the import of alumina was 9.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1392%. The export was 18 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.4% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative net export was 126.5 million tons [16] - On September 19, 2025, Brazil sold 3 million tons of alumina at an FOB price of 351 US dollars/ton for November shipment [16] - On September 19, 2025, India sold 3 million tons of alumina at an FOB price of 336 US dollars/ton for December shipment, 4.93 US dollars/ton higher than the previous deal [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - exporting countries, and prices of caustic soda and thermal coal [17][19][21] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [34][37][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This part contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and warehouse receipts and positions of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [45][48][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market remains weak due to supply pressure. Although the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased, the downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely due to the oversupply of alumina, and the consumption increment is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory continues to rise, adding pressure to the market. Attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/9/5 | 2025/9/12 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3006 | 2914 | -92 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3166 | 3099 | -67 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 202 | 224 | 22 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 355 | 333 | -22 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -1.30 | 123 | 124.3 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 112306 | 138692 | 26386 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract fell 3.06% last week, closing at 2914 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price of the spot market was reported at 3099 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of -67 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In the bauxite market, the overall supply of domestic ores remains severe. The regular inspections and the slow resumption of closed mines have kept the operating rate of inland mines low, with limited spot circulation in the market, which supports the price. The inventory of imported ores at Chinese ports has started to decline, but the overall supply of imported ores in China is still slightly excessive. Enterprises will continue to make purchases based on rigid demand in the short term, and the differences in price views between supply and demand sides will lead to continued price competition in the market [5]. - On the supply side, alumina supply increased slightly. Some alumina enterprises in the north that were affected by environmental protection measures and reduced production have slightly increased production this week. As of September 11, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [5]. - On the consumption side, last week, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong was transferred to Yunnan, while other electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintained stable production. Overall, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable compared with the previous week, and the demand for alumina did not change significantly [5]. - In terms of inventory, the warehouse receipt inventory of alumina futures increased by 11,000 tons last Friday, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [2][5][7]. Market Outlook - The Chinese bauxite market showed no significant changes last week. The interaction of multiple bullish and bearish factors led to no substantial adjustment in prices. On the supply side, some previously shut - down production capacities resumed operation last week, resulting in a slight increase in operating capacity. On the consumption side, the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous period. However, due to the oversupply of alumina, downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand replenishment, with limited consumption increment. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to increase by 11,000 tons during the week, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina remains at a high level, and considering the current weighted average cost of alumina, there is still some profit. It is expected that the operating capacity of alumina will remain high in the future. The consumption side remains stable, and with sufficient supply, buyers have a strong mindset of pressing down prices. The rising warehouse receipt inventory also adds pressure, so alumina will continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. Industry News - Vedanta announced an investment of over 125 billion rupees to enhance its metal manufacturing capabilities, aiming to strengthen the domestic supply of key materials necessary for electric vehicle production to meet the needs of India's rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) industry and contribute to India's vision of sustainable and clean transportation. The investment involves expanding the aluminum smelting business, increasing the added value of aluminum products, building a new zinc alloy factory, installing a zinc roasting furnace, and expanding the ferrochrome production capacity [8]. - Jiaokou County Wangzhuang Pig Iron Co., Ltd. won the exploration right of the Fengjiagang block bauxite in Jiaokou County, Shanxi Province, with the highest bid of 3.1728 billion yuan [8]. - Metro Mining's operating data for August 2025 showed that the shipment volume of its Queensland bauxite mine project increased by 6% year - on - year to 753,101 wet tons. As of now, Metro Mining's total bauxite shipment volume has reached 3.4 million wet tons, and its target shipment volume for 2025 is 6.5 - 7 million wet tons [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina supply continues to rise, and the import window has opened. Domestic alumina supply is increasing due to复产 and new - capacity releases, leading to a growing supply surplus. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [1][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In the north, strict inspections in Henan and policy - related impacts in Shanxi limited ore production. Frequent rainfall also reduced ore output. Imported ore prices were stable, and the shipping volume is expected to increase in October. Newly - arrived ore was 3.406 million tons this period, including 2.272 million tons from Guinea and 1.055 million tons from Australia. The shipping cost from Guinea to China dropped to $23.5 per ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina declined last week. The import window opened due to large - scale tenders from downstream aluminum plants, and market sentiment was bearish. The theoretical import profit was 44 yuan per ton. The national alumina production capacity in operation increased by 800,000 tons to 97.55 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.1% [2][12] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of Yunnan Honghe New Materials Co., Ltd. increased by 20,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 20,000 tons to 44.163 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged [13] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the national alumina inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 3.68 million tons. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. Alumina enterprise inventory remained low, and port inventory increased significantly [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 32,435 tons to 138,692 tons. The futures price is expected to be weak and oscillating, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [14] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - **Import Cost**: As of September 11, the Australian alumina quotation was about $336 per ton, down $18.5 from the previous week. The theoretical import profit was 44 yuan per ton [15] - **Transaction in Western Australia**: On September 11, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia at an FOB price of $340 per ton, down $10 from the previous deal [15] - **Ore Use in Shanxi**: Due to poor domestic ore acquisition in Shanxi, some alumina enterprises increased the use of imported ore. One alumina plant restored its operating capacity from 1 million tons to 1.4 million tons [15] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][25][27] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [32][36][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This part contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant and alumina plant alumina inventories, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the quantity of warehouse receipts and open interest of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [42][45][48]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for alumina is "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina supply continues to recover, and the supply surplus widens. The spot price of alumina declined last week, and the market sentiment is bearish. The supply of alumina is increasing, while the demand is also rising both domestically and overseas. The inventory of alumina has increased, and the registered warehouse receipts on the SHFE have also risen. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [1][2][13][16] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, the含税 price of 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 658 yuan/ton; and in Guizhou, the arrival - at - factory含税 price of 60/6 bauxite was 596 yuan/ton. Shanxi's ore production was affected by policies, rainfall, and the parade. Imported ore: The ALD Guinea ore price index was 74 - 76 dollars/dry ton. Newly - arrived ore was 456.2 million tons, including 319.1 million tons from Guinea and 137.0 million tons from Australia. The freight from Guinea to China dropped by 1 dollar to 25 dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina fell last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3040 - 3120 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 3101 yuan/ton, down 82.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was 3190 - 3230 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The market was bearish, and buyers' willingness to purchase decreased. The domestic full - cost of alumina was 2871 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 361 yuan/ton. The national alumina production capacity was 11462 million tons, with 9675 million tons in operation, an increase of 170 million tons from last week, and the operating rate was 84.4% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Yunnan Honghe New Materials' operating capacity increased by 7 million tons to about 30 million tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 4414.3 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons. Overseas, the New Zealand Tiwai Point electrolytic aluminum plant was resuming production, with an operating capacity of 33.8 million tons and about to reach full - capacity. Indonesia's Juwana Aluminum started power - on testing in early September, expected to produce 15 - 20 million tons this year. The overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 2969.4 million tons, an increase of 10.4 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of September 4th, the national alumina inventory was 360.9 million tons, an increase of 11.2 million tons from last week. The electrolytic aluminum inventory increased significantly, the alumina factory inventory increased implicitly, and the in - transit volume decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 112306 tons, an increase of 23480 tons from last week [15] 2. Summary of Key Events and News in the Industry Chain during the Week - On September 5th, a Xinjiang aluminum plant tendered for 1 million tons of alumina at a delivered price of 3240 yuan/ton, with suppliers mainly delivering Shandong goods due to the railway freight discount in Shandong [17] - On September 5th, a Chongqing electrolytic aluminum enterprise purchased 0.5 million tons of alumina in Guizhou at a delivered price of 3350 yuan/ton [17] - Overseas, the tender sales of spot alumina increased, with the origin mainly in Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India, and the shipping dates mostly from early to late October, potentially increasing domestic supply [17] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost End - Data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces were presented [18][20][22] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina were provided [35][37][39] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventory, alumina plants' alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and open interest were shown [46][49][52]

Group 1 - The alumina market experienced significant adjustments in the first half of the year, with prices declining from a peak of 5540 yuan/ton to a low of 2663 yuan/ton, maintaining a wide fluctuation between 2700 and 3600 yuan/ton after May [1] - The cyclical logic behind the price movements includes industry profit contraction, active production cuts, price rebounds, resumption of production, and price declines back to cost levels [1] - In the fourth quarter, alumina is expected to continue its wide fluctuation pattern, with cost support remaining due to the slow decline in bauxite prices, but upward price movement requires substantial supply-side disruptions [1] Group 2 - As of the end of August, domestic alumina operating capacity was approximately 95 million tons, with a peak close to 96 million tons, and about 1.6 million tons of capacity expected to resume following maintenance [1] - Demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain stable, but growth is limited due to capacity constraints, while non-aluminum demand shows seasonal characteristics and overall demand growth is far behind supply [1] - By 2025, the domestic alumina market is projected to have a surplus of approximately 2% or 2 million tons [1] Group 3 - In the overseas market, projects in India and Indonesia are ramping up, leading to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the overseas supply landscape since the third quarter [2] - By 2025, the overseas alumina surplus is expected to be around 160 million tons, with a surplus rate of 2.7% [2] - Overall, the global alumina supply shifted from a slight shortage to a surplus in the third quarter, with significant surplus pressures expected in both domestic and overseas markets in the second half of the year [2] Group 4 - Guinea bauxite shipments have shown fluctuations due to the rainy season but remain at high levels year-on-year, with expectations of overall surplus in bauxite supply [2] - The CIF price of Guinea bauxite is projected at $74.5/ton, with marginal cash costs for domestic alumina production estimated between 2850 and 2950 yuan/ton, and total costs between 3070 and 3170 yuan/ton, indicating a neutral profit level for the industry [2] Group 5 - In the short term, without supply disruptions, alumina prices may remain in a bottoming phase, with current prices near the cash loss threshold for smelting [3] - The price support level is expected around 2900 to 3000 yuan/ton, with an anticipated price fluctuation range of 2900 to 3300 yuan/ton [3] - Despite significant supply surplus pressures, seasonal production limits and policy disruptions in the fourth quarter may lead to a temporary price rebound, with potential peaks around 3500 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1][5] Core View of the Report - The rumor of Shanxi's ore policy has little impact, and the alumina supply continues to recover slowly. The domestic alumina supply has turned into a slight surplus with the release of复产 and new production capacity, and the generated warehouse receipts put pressure on the futures market. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend [5][15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Last week, domestic ore prices remained stable. The含税 price of Shanxi 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 was 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 bauxite's delivered含税 price was 596 yuan/ton. The rumored Shanxi bauxite policy mainly affects mines exploiting bauxite under the guise of ceramic soil, most of which are already shut - down. Henan has strict inspections with low mine operation rates. Southern ports were temporarily closed due to rain and typhoons, reducing imported bauxite unloading. The imported ore price range is 73 - 76 dollars/dry ton. Downstream factories have sufficient ore reserves. The shipping volume from Bofa is decreasing. Newly - arrived ore was 340.7 million tons, including 281 million tons from Guinea and 53.7 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China is 25 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: Last week, alumina spot prices dropped. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3200 - 3270 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index was 3243.3 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The imported alumina port quotation was 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere was light. The northern market traded 1.1 million tons of spot alumina, with the weighted trading price at 3197 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The Australian import price was about 3230 yuan/ton. The domestic full cost of alumina was 2810 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 488 yuan/ton. The industry's good profit drives enterprises to increase production. The national alumina production capacity is 11302 million tons, with 9595 million tons in operation, an increase of 60 million tons from last week, and the operation rate is 84.9% [13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Guangxi Baise Yinhai Aluminum's operating capacity increased to 14 million tons, up 2 million tons; Yunnan Honghe New Materials' operating capacity increased to 10 million tons, up 5 million tons. Henan Wanjji Aluminum plans to transfer 58 million tons of capacity to Xinjiang in 2026 and start production in 2027. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 4392.3 million tons, up 7 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 2959 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of August 14, the national alumina inventory was 337.5 million tons, up 9 million tons from last week. The inventory at aluminum plants increased, that of alumina enterprises slightly decreased, port inventory fluctuated, and the inventory at delivery warehouses continued to rise [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 65771 tons, up 43807 tons from last week. The domestic futures price was weak. The anti - involution narrative and mine - end disturbances have no substantial impact. The Guinea ore price in the third quarter is about 75 dollars, and the alumina supply has turned slightly surplus, generating warehouse receipts and pressuring the futures [15] 2. Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain This Week - **Limited Impact of Parade - Related Production Restrictions**: Some high - energy - consuming industries in the north received parade - related production restriction notices. Most alumina producers in Shanxi, Shandong, and Hebei did not receive such notices. Only one enterprise in Henan may reduce roasting production around the parade, with no significant impact on medium - term output. Transportation of trucks below National V may be restricted from August 16 [16] - **Two Alumina Transactions in Western Australia**: On August 14, two transactions of a total of 6 million tons of alumina occurred in Western Australia, with the FOB price at 374 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars/ton from August 11, for September - late shipment [16] - **Bidding Results of an Electrolytic Aluminum Plant in Xinjiang**: On August 11, an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang bid for 1 million tons of alumina. The winning price was 3490 - 3530 yuan/ton, with the low - price range down 20 - 40 yuan/ton from last week [17] 3. Monitoring of Key Data Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost End - The section includes charts on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and steam coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [18][21][23][27][29][31] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The section contains charts on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the ratio of SHFE electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures, and domestic alumina weekly supply - demand balance. The table shows the changes in alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacities and supply - demand differences from April to August 2025 [34][38][40][43] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The section includes charts on alumina inventory at electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit, ports, total social inventory, and SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions [46][49][55][56][58]