Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is influenced by the balance between oil price fluctuations and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, with upcoming U.S. CPI and Canadian inflation data expected to dictate the currency's direction [1] Economic Fundamentals - The USD/CAD exchange rate is affected by differences in the economic fundamentals of the U.S. and Canada, diverging monetary policy expectations, and international oil price trends [1] - U.S. core PCE inflation for October was reported at 3.5%, which was lower than expected, while Federal Reserve officials emphasized maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation, pushing back rate cut expectations to 2025, thus supporting the resilience of the USD [1] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was 2.9%, providing a solid foundation for the USD [1] - In Canada, as an oil-exporting country, the recent decline in international oil prices below $80 per barrel has led to a narrowing trade surplus, creating pressure on the economy [1] - Canada's October CPI year-on-year was 3.1%, above the central bank's 2% target, but core inflation showed a marginal decline, leading to market expectations for potential rate cuts next year, which could suppress the CAD [1] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD has entered a bullish channel after rebounding from a low of 1.33520, currently trading at 1.4654, with key support levels at 1.4640 and 1.4630 [2] - If the exchange rate breaks below the support level of 1.4620, it may trigger a short-term correction, while resistance levels are concentrated around 1.4660, 1.4680, and the upper boundary of the previous trading range at 1.4700 [2] - Technical indicators suggest a gradual emergence of an upward trend, with MACD showing a slight increase in bullish momentum and the average directional index rising to around 23, indicating a likely range-bound movement between 1.4630 and 1.4670 in the short term [2] - If the price stabilizes above 1.4680, the target could shift towards 1.4700-1.4720; conversely, a drop below 1.4630 could extend the downside to 1.4625-1.4610 [2]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has appreciated against the US dollar (USD), currently trading around 0.65, with a 0.30% increase from the previous close of 0.6575 [1] - Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock expressed increased confidence that inflation will remain within the central bank's target range of 2%-3% [1] - The labor market has shown signs of easing, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although some sectors still face supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2 - Bullock has downplayed market expectations for an interest rate cut in the near term, indicating that the board will closely monitor economic data and evolving risks for future policy decisions [1] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on October 29 is expected to be a key determinant for the RBA's policy direction at the November 4 meeting [1] - Market analysts suggest that if CPI data significantly exceeds the midpoint of the target range, it may reinforce the central bank's tightening stance; conversely, if inflation slows more than expected, it could reignite discussions on policy shifts [1]

Core Points - The Tokyo stock market indices experienced a significant rise, with the Nikkei 225 index closing up by 0.77% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index up by 0.43%, both reaching historical highs [1][2] - The market opened slightly higher and showed a trend of fluctuating upward movement, driven by profit-taking from some investors and increased participation from others attracted by relatively undervalued blue-chip stocks [1] - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar positively impacted export-oriented stocks, particularly in the automotive sector, with shares of Toyota, Honda, and Nissan rising [1] - Semiconductor equipment manufacturers like Tokyo Electron and Lasertec faced downward pressure due to investor concerns over potential tariffs on semiconductors proposed by Trump [1] Sector Performance - The Nikkei index rose by 336.00 points, closing at 43714.31 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index increased by 13.28 points to 3120.96 points [2] - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with service, transportation machinery, and precision machinery sectors leading the increases [2] - Conversely, nine sectors, including banking, marine transportation, and electric and gas utilities, experienced declines on the same day [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, expressed concerns about exchange rate fluctuations driven by speculators, but stated that he would not comment on the level of the exchange rate [1] Group 1 - The Finance Minister's stance indicates a cautious approach towards currency volatility, highlighting the potential impact of speculative trading on the exchange rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Ministry of Finance officials emphasize the need to monitor exchange rate trends [1] Group 1 - The Japanese government is focusing on the importance of tracking currency fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significance of U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's visit to Japan, coinciding with the upcoming Japanese Senate elections, which may influence U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, particularly regarding the proposed 25% "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. [1][2] - Nomura Securities reports that the Japanese government is coordinating a meeting between Yellen and Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizuki Ryozo, to discuss the recent tariff proposals [1] - The report indicates that while a breakthrough in trade negotiations is unlikely in the immediate future, even a delay in the implementation of tariffs could limit the upward movement of the USD/JPY exchange rate [1] Group 2 - The articles note that U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo's visit to Japan may also facilitate discussions on tariffs for specific industries, including the automotive sector [1] - There is a historical context suggesting that any potential meeting between Yellen and Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, could significantly impact exchange rate trends, as previous discussions hinted at U.S. efforts to curb the rise of the USD/JPY [2] - Kato has indicated that he does not plan to meet with Yellen next week, as he is likely to attend the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in South Africa, which may lead the market to anticipate discussions on exchange rates if he cancels his trip [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated that the strength of the British pound is not based on interest rate speculation [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England's stance on currency fluctuations emphasizes that exchange rate movements are influenced by factors beyond just interest rate expectations [1]

Group 1 - The Taiwanese dollar (TWD) experienced a significant appreciation, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping 7-8% over two consecutive days in early May, marking a historical volatility record that affected overall Asian currency fluctuations [1] - The Central Bank of Taiwan stated that the appreciation was not due to pressure from the US, but rather driven by exporters concentrating their foreign exchange settlements [1] - Taiwanese life insurance companies are unlikely to sell off their US dollar assets in the short term, despite the pressure from TWD appreciation and rising hedging costs, as US Treasury bonds remain a scarce long-duration asset [1][5] Group 2 - The next potential focus for currency movements in Asia includes the TWD and Malaysian ringgit (MYR), which are expected to benefit from high dollar deposit ratios and strong export settlement potential [2] - The South Korean won (KRW) is anticipated to have room for appreciation due to its high correlation with USD/CNY amid a downward trend in both currencies [2] - The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to perform solidly in the long term, supported by diversified asset allocation by the central bank and its AAA credit rating [2] Group 3 - The Chinese yuan (CNY) is projected to remain stable with a slight strengthening trend, as policymakers prefer a stable exchange rate path despite tariff pressures and capital outflow risks [2] - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) is expected to maintain a strong position within its linked exchange rate system, bolstered by robust southbound capital inflows and significant liquidity injections by the Monetary Authority [2] - The Indian rupee (INR) faces pressure from geopolitical tensions and potential foreign exchange reserve accumulation by the Reserve Bank of India, making it difficult to outperform other high-yield currencies in the short term [2] Group 4 - The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is considered undervalued, with expectations for a rebound due to manageable fiscal deficit risks and lower oil prices reducing subsidy expenditures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey indicates that short-term exchange rate trends and food prices are exerting upward pressure on inflation [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank of Turkey's governor highlights the significant impact of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation [1] - Food prices are identified as a critical factor contributing to inflationary pressures in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing its fastest rise since 2009, with traders betting it will reach 1.20 USD, prompting strategists to update their forecasts [1] Group 1: Euro Performance - The euro reached its highest level in three years over the weekend, driven by uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook due to tariff policies [1] - Three out of four options contracts bought on Friday were bets on the euro strengthening further [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - Hedge funds are targeting a euro value of 1.20 USD [1] - Mizuho International strategists predict an increased likelihood of the euro reaching this level, which would be the highest since mid-2021, in the coming months [1]