证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-10投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8512，基差179，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。受阿根廷关税政策影响，豆类及油 脂供应增加，油脂油料回调整体。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴 政策扶持生柴消费增加。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Argentina's temporary cancellation of soybean export taxes, smooth sowing in South America, and the near - full realization of the US's high - yield expectations have led to a further loosening of the overall soybean supply, which may put pressure on oil prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9360.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +44 yuan (+0.47%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8366.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +38.00 yuan (+0.46%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10143.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +75.00 yuan (+0.74%) [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9260.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +10.00 yuan (+0.11%), and the spot basis was P01 + - 100.00, with a daily change of - 34.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8530.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +20.00 yuan/ton (+0.24%), and the spot basis was Y01 + 164.00, with a daily change of - 18.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10360.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +70.00 yuan (+0.68%), and the spot basis was OI01 + 217.00, with a daily change of - 5.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market News Argentina's Policy - On September 22, the Argentine government temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, soybean derivatives (such as soybean meal and soybean oil), corn, and wheat until October 31 or until export volume reaches $7 billion, aiming to increase foreign exchange supply and curb the decline of the local currency [2] Brazil's Agricultural Situation - As of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean sowing area for the 2025/26 season reached 0.9% of the expected total area, with significant increases in field operations in Paraná, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, and São Paulo states, at the same level as the same period last year. The Brazilian Oilseed Processing Association (Abiove) expects Brazilian soybean processing enterprises to invest 5.9 billion reais ($1.11 billion) in the next 12 months, which will increase the country's soybean crushing capacity by 8% (about 6 million tons per year) [2] US Agricultural Situation - A US private exporter reported selling 320,068 tons of corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. As of the week ending September 18, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons, compared with 821,809 tons the previous week. The cumulative US soybean export inspection volume for the current crop year was 1,569,777 tons, compared with 1,246,429 tons in the same period last year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed mixed trends this week, with palm oil and soybean oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased, and the fundamentals of different oils varied. The MPOB report on palm oil was neutral to bearish, causing the price center to shift downward. [4][34][36] - In the short - term, the center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600. In the medium - to - long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [37][38] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From September 5 to September 12, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) decreased by 230 to 9296, a week - on - week decline of 2.41%, and the spot price decreased by 196 to 9354, a week - on - week decline of 2.05%. [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) increased by 39 to 9857, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%, and the spot price increased by 98 to 10020, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%. [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) decreased by 128 to 8322, a week - on - week decline of 1.51%, and the spot price decreased by 120 to 8408, a week - on - week decline of 1.41%. [4] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of September 11, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 72 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), 127 yuan/ton (an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 24 yuan/ton (an increase of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. [10] - As of September 12, 2025, the YP spread was - 974 yuan/ton (an increase of 102 yuan/ton from the previous week). [10] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.7 tons (a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 61.93 tons (an increase of 0.92 tons from the previous week), and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills was 125.13 tons (an increase of 1.25 tons from the previous week). The total inventory of the three major oils was 196.76 tons (an increase of 1.47 tons from the previous week). [13] Palm Oil Supply Side - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of August increased by 4.18% from the previous month to 220 tons. [18] - In June 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons. [18] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 966.10 tons (an increase of 60.5 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 731.70 tons (an increase of 34.85 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 60% (a decrease of 1% from the previous week). [21] - As of September 11, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 600.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 12.6 yuan/ton from the previous week). [21] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 10 tons (unchanged from the previous week). [27] - As of September 11, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2284.80 yuan/ton (an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton from the previous week). [27] Demand Side - On September 11, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 3500 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 7000 tons. The POGO spread was 416.74 dollars/ton (a decrease of 11.5 dollars/ton from the previous week). [32] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 805 tons. [32] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified, and the Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation period of Canadian rapeseed to March 9, 2026. [34] - Foreign: USDA's monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. [34] - Import and Crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 1% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remained at 10 tons, unchanged from the previous week. [34] - Inventory: As of September 5, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 9.7 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.93 tons, and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills increased to 125.13 tons. [34] - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 2.05%, the spot price of soybean oil decreased by 1.41%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 0.99%. [34] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600 next week. [37] - Medium - to - long - term: The weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [38] - Next week's focus and risk warnings include the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency Malaysian palm oil data, and weather. [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the rise of oils and fats will be weak and a correction will occur, but the correction range is expected to be limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - selling or patiently wait for the correction and then try to go long at low prices. The soybean - palm oil spread may rebound in the short term, and one can consider shorting after the rebound. One can also consider going long on P1 - 5 at low prices and the OI 11 - 1 positive spread logic. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8366 with a rise of 10; palm oil 9368 with a fall of 54; and rapeseed oil 9727 with a fall of 39. The basis of different varieties and regions showed different changes, such as the soybean oil basis in Zhangjiagang was 330 with no change, and the palm oil basis in Tianjin was 130 with a fall of 20 [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: For the 1 - 5 monthly spread, soybean oil was 296 with a rise of 8, palm oil was 220 with a fall of 26, and rapeseed oil was 169 with no change [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 1002 with a rise of 64, the OI - Y spread was 1361 with a fall of 49, the OI - P spread was 359 with a rise of 15, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.73 with a fall of 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil盘面利润 from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 209, and the CNF price was 1118; the 盘面利润 of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 776, and the FOB price was 1067 [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 35th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory was 123.9 million tons, the palm oil inventory was 61.0 million tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory was 66.4 million tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 will be 2.2 billion tons, an increase of 4.06% from July; the output is expected to be 1.86 billion tons, an increase of 2.5% from July; and the export volume is expected to be 1.45 billion tons, an increase of 10.7% from July [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of August 29, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 61.01 million tons, a 4.81% increase from the previous week. The origin quotation increased, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable. The short - term rise of oils and fats was weak, and palm oil may correct [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of August 29, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 123.88 million tons, a 4.45% increase from the previous week. The basis was stable. The short - term rise of oils and fats was lack of power, and soybean oil was more resistant to decline [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of August 29, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 66.4 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased, and the import profit inversion widened. The domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. The rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline marginally, which supported the price [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect oils and fats to correct with limited decline. Long - position holders can partially take profits and partially hold; non - position holders can short or wait for correction to go long [11]. - **Arbitrage**: The soybean - palm oil spread may rebound in the short term, short after the rebound; go long on P1 - 5 at low prices; OI 11 - 1 positive spread logic [11]. - **Options**: Wait and see [12]. 3.4 Relevant Attached Figures - The report provides multiple figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads of Y 1 - 5, P 1 - 5, OI 1 - 5, as well as the cross - variety spreads of Y - P 01 and OI - Y 01 [15][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market anticipates a policy adjustment by the US SRE, which is putting pressure on the oil and fat market, leading to a volatile and downward trend in the prices of the three major oils [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,554 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan or 0.89% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,414 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan or 1.31% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,828 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan or 0.22% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 2.28%, with a spot basis of P01 + -114 yuan, a decrease of 134 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 2.53%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 46 yuan, a decrease of 108 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 132 yuan, an increase of 2 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Palm Oil Exports - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 929,051 tons, a 13.61% increase from the same period last month [2] - According to Amspec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from the same period last month [2] Oil and Soybean Prices - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,163 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1,153 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,045 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1,025 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 462 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 456 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 490 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] Import Soybean Premiums - The import premium for Mexican Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, an increase of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The import premium for US West Coast soybeans (September shipment) was 189 cents/bushel, an increase of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The import premium for Brazilian port soybeans (October shipment) was 303 cents/bushel, a decrease of 4 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] Crop Yield Forecasts - Pro Farmer expects Nebraska's corn yield in 2025 to be 179.50 bushels/acre, up from 173.25 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - Pro Farmer expects Nebraska's average soybean pod count in 2025 to be 1,348.31, up from 1,172.48 in 2024 [2] - Pro Farmer expects Indiana's corn yield in 2025 to be 193.82 bushels/acre, up from 187.54 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - Pro Farmer expects Indiana's average soybean pod count in 2025 to be 1,376.59, down from 1,409.02 in 2024 [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The high commercial inventory of soybean oil is putting pressure on the overall oil market, causing it to fluctuate [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,970 yuan/ton, a change of +24 yuan or +0.27% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,226 yuan/ton, a change of +106 yuan or +1.31% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,492 yuan/ton, a change of +86 yuan or +0.91% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,940 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.22%, with a spot basis of P09 + -30 yuan, a change of -4 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,350 yuan/ton, a change of +120 yuan or +1.46%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 124 yuan, a change of +14 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.84%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 88 yuan, a change of -6 yuan [1] Market News - India has become the largest importer of Malaysian oil palm germinated seeds and the largest export market for Malaysian palm oil in 2024, importing 3.03 million tons, accounting for 17.9% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports. India aims to expand its oil palm planting area to 1 million hectares by 2025 - 26 and achieve a palm oil production target of 2.8 million tons by 2029 - 30 [2] - The C&F prices of US Gulf, US West, and Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) decreased by 2, 2, and 3 dollars/ton respectively. The import soybean premium quotes from the Mexican Gulf and US West Coast (September shipment) remained flat, while that from Brazilian ports increased by 1 cent/bushel [2] - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (August and October shipments) remained flat. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed oil (August and October shipments) remained flat, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (October and December shipments) increased by 2 dollars/ton [2] Inventory - As of July 25, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.0881 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, but the inventory pressure is still large. There is a B50 expectation in the palm oil market, but the implementation time is uncertain, and the pattern of loose palm oil supply cannot be changed in the short term [3] Group 4: Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The recovery of palm oil production in Malaysia, the increase in the expected rapeseed production in Canada, and favorable weather in the US soybean - producing areas have led to a prominent oversupply of oils and fats, causing prices to fluctuate under pressure [3] Summary by Related Contents Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8994.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.76% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2509 contract closed at 8074.00 yuan/ton, a change of -2.00 yuan or -0.02%; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract closed at 9456.00 yuan/ton, a change of -21.00 yuan or -0.22% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9100.00 yuan/ton, a change of +140.00 yuan or +1.56%, with a spot basis of P09 + 106.00, a change of +72.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8220.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton or +0.12%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 146.00, a change of +12.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9560.00 yuan/ton, a change of -20.00 yuan or -0.21%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 104.00, a change of +1.00 yuan [1] Market Information Summary - Canada: The July supply - demand report of the Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) adjusted key data. The 2024/25 rapeseed production forecast was significantly increased to about 19.19 million tons from the previous 17.85 million tons, and the old - crop rapeseed export forecast was raised to 9.5 million tons. The 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast was lowered by 200,000 tons to 17.8 million tons, with a yield of 2.08 tons per hectare, lower than the previous year's 2.17 tons per hectare [2] - Malaysia: According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - Indonesia: In May, due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% year - on - year increase, mainly driven by the demand from India and China. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but a 7.2% increase compared to the same period last year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With favorable weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas and strong expectations of a bumper soybean harvest, coupled with the expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia, the overall oil prices are under pressure and fluctuating [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8910.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 0.60% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8092.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68.00 yuan or 0.83%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9563.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.00 yuan or 0.24% [1] - **Spot**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8950.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.11%, and the spot basis was P09 + 40.00, an increase of 64.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8230.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.36%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 138.00, an increase of 38.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9660.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.51%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 97.00, a decrease of 27.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: United Plantations in Malaysia reported that in the second quarter, palm oil and palm kernel production increased by 13.8% and 20.5% year - on - year respectively; on Monday, U.S. soybean and corn futures fell due to expected favorable rainfall for crops this week, while wheat prices were firm; AgRural estimated that the total corn production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season would reach 136.3 million tons, higher than the June forecast; as of last Thursday, farmers in the central - southern region of Brazil had harvested 55% of the second - crop corn; as of the week ending July 17, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 364,990 tons [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA has a high production forecast for South America in the 24/25 season. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The overall domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Niño weather. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production decline was less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that Malaysian palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase as the production season approaches. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8350, with a basis of 258, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300. [3] Daily Views - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and supply is expected to increase. [5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 90, indicating spot premium. [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [5] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200. [5] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and supply is expected to increase. [6] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9680, with a basis of 119, indicating spot premium. [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [6] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [6] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season. [7] - **Negative Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [7] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Includes import soybean inventory [8], soybean oil inventory [10], soybean meal inventory [12], oil mill soybean crushing [14], palm oil inventory [19], rapeseed oil inventory [22], rapeseed inventory [24], and total domestic oils and fats inventory [26]. - **Demand**: Soybean oil apparent consumption [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but international biodiesel profits are low and demand is weak. The domestic tariff on Canadian canola has led to a rise in the canola sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, affecting the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in March, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,264, with a basis of 270, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,800 - 8,200 [2] Daily Viewpoints - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,744, with a basis of 266, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: On June 2, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,300 - 8,700 [3] Daily Viewpoints - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,775, with a basis of 156, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Imported soybean inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [6] - Soybean oil inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [7] - Soybean meal inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [9] - Oil mill soybean crushing: Not described in detail, only mentioned [11] - Palm oil inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [19] - Rapeseed inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [21] - Total domestic oils and fats inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [23] Demand - Soybean oil apparent consumption: Not described in detail, only mentioned [13] - Soybean meal apparent consumption: Not described in detail, only mentioned [15]