| | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7994 | 8724 | 8980 | 2790 | 2770 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 0 | 42 | -62 | 4 | -18 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | 0.48% | -3.15% | 0.14% | -0.65% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 | 现值 | -364 | 62 | -746 | -754 | 1079 | 325 | | 市 场 | 前值 | -390 | -26 | -627 | -732 | 1243 ...

看向国内市场，我国9月停购美豆后进口数量不降反增，主要是因为在供应缺口预期增强和巴西大豆丰 产的背景下，提前购买了大量的南美大豆。截至10月底，我国累计进口大豆9566.86万吨，同比增长 6.37%。截至11月国内油厂大豆到港量为9484.15万吨，同比增长8.7%。我国大豆进口格局变化明显，巴 西大豆占比从71%提升至74%，阿根廷大豆占比从4%提升至5%，美国大豆占比从21%下降至17%。 10月29日，中粮集团采购了3船共计18万吨美国大豆，标志着美豆采购正式重启。但美国大豆对华出口 量短期难以恢复至近年平均水平。以1200万吨的美国大豆采购协议为例，最初协议约定在2025年年底前 完成采购，但我国需求表现平淡，截至当前，阶段性落地订单仅200余万吨，剩余部分已协商推迟至 2026年执行。由此可见，目前国内企业对美豆的采买意愿一般。根据买船进度来看，2026年1—2月采购 进度较12月大幅提升。同时，中储粮于12月11日拍卖了51.25万吨大豆、12月16日进行第二轮51.39万吨 的大豆拍卖，大豆供应充足。根据钢联预测，2026年1月大豆供应量将达到1250万吨，基本追平2025年 同期，2026年 ...

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1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.36 million tons of soybean meal and 0.9 million tons of soybean oil, with soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil ending inventories of 1,126 tons, 2.51 million tons, and 0.49 million tons respectively [1] - From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 2.55%, and oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% [1] - The expected sown area of winter rapeseed in France for the 2026/27 season will reach 1.34 million hectares, a three - year high, with a year - on - year increase of 6.4% and a 9.4% increase compared to the average of last year [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - In October 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, with 3.36 million tons of soybean meal and 0.9 million tons of soybean oil produced, and the ending inventories of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 1,126 tons, 2.51 million tons, and 0.49 million tons respectively [1] - From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 2.55%, and oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% [1] - The expected sown area of winter rapeseed in France for the 2026/27 season will reach 1.34 million hectares, a three - year high, increasing by 6.4% year - on - year and 9.4% compared to the average of last year [1] Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 10 - 16, 2025 are presented in a table [2] Protein Meal Basis - No information provided [3] Oil and Fat Futures Spread - No information provided [6] Oil and Fat Basis - No information provided [8]

现 货 价 格 | 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/02 | 3020 | 2520 | 8550 | 8670 | 10020 | | 2025/12/03 | 3020 | 2510 | 8580 | 8680 | 10000 | | 2025/12/04 | 3020 | 2520 | 8520 | 8620 | 9890 | | 2025/12/05 | 3020 | 2500 | 8540 | 8720 | 9870 | | 2025/12/08 | 3020 | 2500 | 8500 | 8660 | 9760 | 蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油 脂 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/09 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售13.2万吨大豆 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售132,000吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付运。 12月4日止当周美国大豆出口检验量为1,018,127吨，符合预期 美国农业部公布的 ...

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not mentioned - **Core View**: The report provides overnight market information on the export sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, as well as the situation of palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia. It also shows the spot prices of related products. Overnight Market Information - The USDA will release the export sales report for the week ending October 30 at 21:30 Beijing time on Thursday. Analysts estimate that US 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 600,000 - 2,000,000 tons, US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 200,000 - 450,000 tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 5,000 - 25,000 tons [1] - A survey shows that Malaysia's November palm oil inventory may reach a six - and - a - half - year high due to slow exports and record - high production in November. The estimated inventory is 2.66 million tons, a 7.78% month - on - month increase. Production is estimated at 1.98 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month but still the highest November production on record. Exports are expected to drop 14.9% to 1.44 million tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production forecast remains unchanged at 19.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons. Adverse weather restricts production growth. The EC weather model predicts drier weather in the next 15 days, but there are uncertainties in the medium - to - long - term weather patterns [1] - The 2025/26 Indonesian palm oil production forecast is raised to 51.2 million tons, a less than 1% increase from the previous forecast, with an estimated range of 46.2 - 56.2 million tons. However, there are flood risks [1] Spot Prices - The report shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 27 to December 3, 2025 [2]

Core Insights - The training session focused on empowering the food industry through capital market mechanisms, enhancing understanding and confidence among enterprises regarding capital market tools for industrial development [7][13] - The event was organized by the Municipal Financial Office in collaboration with CITIC Securities and Qingdao Blue Ocean Equity Exchange Center, highlighting a comprehensive capital support system for enterprises throughout their lifecycle [1][7] Group 1: Training Overview - The training included presentations on the Hong Kong capital market and practical aspects of listing food companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, providing structured analysis of the number of listed companies, total market value changes, and industry distribution [3][9] - Key speakers included senior executives from CITIC Securities, who provided insights into capital market operations and strategies tailored for the food industry [3][9] Group 2: Market Insights - Analysts discussed the outlook for the livestock industry, particularly the egg futures market, predicting a continuation of wide fluctuations, and emphasized the need for long-term strategies in the pig market [5][11] - The oilseed market was also analyzed, with expectations of increased production of international palm oil, while domestic supply and demand dynamics were addressed to prepare for future market changes [5][11] Group 3: Participation and Impact - Over 50 participants from key food industry enterprises, financial management departments, and industry liaison officers attended the training, indicating strong interest and engagement in capital market opportunities [7][13] - Attendees expressed a clearer understanding of industry development and the supportive role of capital markets, committing to translate knowledge into actionable steps for advancing their listing processes [7][13]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report presents overnight market information on the oilseeds and oils industry, including production and export data from major producing countries and analyst forecasts for U.S. export sales. It also provides precipitation conditions, import profit margins, and price data for soybeans, palm oil, and related products [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil production from November 1 - 5, 2025, increased by 6.8% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 5.12% and oil extraction rate up 0.32% [1]. - Brazil's projected soybean exports in November 2025 are 377 million tons, compared to 234 million tons in the same period last year. The projected export of soybean meal is 223 million tons, compared to 173 million tons last year [1]. - Analysts expect U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales to net increase by 40 - 200 million tons for the week ending October 30; soybean meal export sales to net increase by 5 - 45 million tons; and soybean oil export sales to net increase by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1]. - Brazil exported 6,727,845.14 tons of soybeans in October 2025, a 43% year - on - year increase, with a daily average export volume of 305,811.14 tons, also a 43% increase [1][2]. Other Information - The report also includes data on precipitation in major producing countries, import profit margins for soybeans and oils, and price data for protein meals, oils, and related products from October 31 to November 6, 2025 [1][3].

Report Overview Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. Report's Core View The reports present a comprehensive overview of the global oils and fats and oilseeds market, covering planting progress, production, imports, and price trends in major producing and consuming regions. Key factors influencing the market include weather conditions, price differentials between various oils, and demand fluctuations in major importing countries like India. Summary by Relevant Catalog Overnight Market Information - As of October 30, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate reached 47% of the expected area, lower than 54% in the same period last year and up from 36% the previous week. The planting rate of the first - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region was 60%, compared to 59% last year [1]. - Expana predicts that the EU's 2026/27 rapeseed planting area will reach 6.46 million hectares, a 7% increase from the current year and 11% above the five - year average, the highest since 2010/11. Sunflower and soybean planting areas for harvest in 2027 are also expected to increase. The organization maintains the current - year rapeseed production forecast at 20.4 million tons, a 20.9% increase from last year; sunflower seed production at 8.4 million tons, a 3.4% decrease; and soybean production at 3 million tons, a 3.2% decrease [1]. - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in October 2025 increased by 5.55% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 4.50% and oil extraction rate up 0.20% [1]. - India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - month low of 600,000 tons, a 27.6% month - on - month decrease. The 2024/25 market - year imports decreased by 16% to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years. Meanwhile, India's 2024/25 soybean oil imports soared 61.6% to a record 5.56 million tons, while sunflower oil imports decreased by 17.7% to 2.88 million tons. In October, India's total edible oil imports decreased by 20.7% month - on - month to 1.27 million tons, while the 2024/25 total imports increased by 0.3% to 16 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various oils and oilseeds in different regions of China from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are provided, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2]. Others - Information on protein meal basis, oils and fats basis, and oils and fats and oilseeds futures price spreads is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [3][5]

Report Information - Report Title: [Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report] US Soybeans and US Soybean Meal Prices Rise, with External Market Performance Stronger than Domestic Market [1] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The prices of US soybeans and US soybean meal increased, with the external market outperforming the domestic market. The price of CBOT soybeans was mainly influenced by the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The price of CBOT soybean meal was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and its low - level price advantage. The price of CBOT soybean oil declined due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation. The domestic soybean and soybean product markets were also affected by international market trends, as well as factors such as domestic supply and demand, inventory, and import and export conditions [9][13][20] Summary by Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean 11 - contract closed at 1100.00 cents per bushel, up 5.59% from the previous week, and the 01 - contract closed at 1115.00 cents per bushel, up 5.14%. The price increase was due to the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas was beneficial for harvesting, but the cumulative export inspection volume was still lower than the same period last year [9] 2. Soybean Meal - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean meal 12 - contract closed at 321.4 dollars per short - ton, up 9.36% from the previous week. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and the low - level price advantage [13] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean meal 01 - contract closed at 3021 yuan per ton, up 3.00%. The price increase was driven by the rise in CBOT soybean prices, but was restricted by the decline in Brazilian soybean premium quotes and high domestic soybean meal inventories [16] 3. Soybean Oil - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean oil 12 - contract closed at 48.62 cents per pound, down 3.32%. The price decline was due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation [20] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean oil 01 - contract closed at 8128 yuan per ton, down 0.81%. The price decline was affected by the fall in domestic competing vegetable oil prices and high domestic soybean oil inventories [23] II. Production Area Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Rainfall was mainly concentrated in the southern region, with slightly lower rainfall in the central - western region than normal, and the overall temperature was lower than normal [24][25] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to mainly occur in the southern region, and the temperature in the central part of the production area will be higher than normal [27] 2. Argentine Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Local rainfall in the main production areas was higher than normal, and the temperature was lower than normal [31] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to be slightly higher than normal, and the temperature will be slightly lower than normal [33] III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - USDA drought monitoring report: As of the week of October 28, about 34% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 39% the previous week and 73% in the same period last year [38] - Export inspection: The weekly export inspection volume met expectations, but the cumulative year - on - year decline continued to widen. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the export inspection volume was 1,061,375 tons. As of the week of October 24, 2024, it was 2,630,651 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 6,715,111 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.91% [40] - D4 RINs price: As of October 31, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 100 cents, unchanged from October 24 [43] - Other important news: The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on issues such as tariff cancellation, export control suspension, and expansion of agricultural product trade through consultations in Kuala Lumpur [45] 2. Brazilian Soybeans - Soybean production forecast: Different institutions' forecasts for the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production range from 1.75 billion to 1.8 billion tons [47] - Soybean sowing: As of the week of October 25, 2025, the soybean planting rate was 34.4%. The sowing progress in some states such as Mato Grosso and Parana was also reported [47][48] - Export sales: Anec lowered the October export forecast to 7 million tons. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the cumulative export volume was 99.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.26% [50][52] - Soybean premium: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium declined [55] - Brazilian soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 28.16 dollars per ton, down from 28.87 dollars per ton on October 24 [58] 3. Argentine Soybeans - Farmer sales: As of the week of October 22, 2025, the pre - sale of 2025/26 soybeans by Argentine farmers increased compared to the previous week [60] - Argentine soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 9.08 dollars per ton, down from 18.88 dollars per ton on October 24 [65] IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - China's imported soybean procurement progress: The procurement progress data for the week of October 28, 2025, was provided [68] - Port and oil - mill soybean inventories: As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.731 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from the previous week, and the oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.5129 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons [70] - Imported soybean arrivals and crushing: In the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the arrival volume was about 2.145 million tons, and in the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the actual crushing volume was 2.2534 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.99% [72] - Soybean oil trading volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the weekly trading volume was 80,700 tons, an increase from the previous week [74] - Soybean oil production and apparent consumption: In the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the production was 416,900 tons, and in the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the apparent consumption was 411,700 tons [76] - Soybean oil inventory: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.2503 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons from the previous week [80] 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - Soybean meal production and apparent consumption: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the production was 1.7802 million tons, a decrease of 90,100 tons from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, 2025, the apparent consumption was 1.7918 million tons, a decrease of 22,400 tons from the previous week [82] - Oil - mill soybean meal inventory and feed - mill physical inventory days: As of October 24, 2025, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, an increase of 78,400 tons from the previous week. As of October 31, 2025, the physical inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.02 days, an increase of 0.06 days from October 24 [85] - Soybean meal trading volume and pick - up volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the trading volume was 558,900 tons, an increase of 3.16% from the previous week, and the pick - up volume was 981,800 tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week [88] - Downstream demand: The losses in pig - breeding and piglet - purchasing breeding profits continued to narrow. The live - pig ex - factory price and the pig - grain ratio increased [91] - Soybean meal warehouse receipt quantity: As of October 31, 2025, the registered quantity of Dalian Commodity Exchange soybean meal warehouse receipts was 42,332 lots [93] V. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Product Spread Situations - Soybean oil basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of first - grade soybean oil in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [97][98] - Soybean meal basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of 43% soybean meal in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [100][102] - Product spread: Data on the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the ratios of soybean oil to soybean meal and corn to soybean meal were presented [104][105] 2. FOB Quotes - Quotes and spreads of soybean oil, Brazilian soybean meal, US soybean meal, and Argentine soybean meal FOB were presented [108][110][112] 3. CFTC Positioning - The net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil managed funds were presented [114][115]