Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of eliminating outdated production capacity in the paper industry as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the development of the paper industry, which aims to promote green and high-end transformation [1] Industry Summary - The policy encourages the reduction of high-pollution and low-efficiency capacity, leading to the gradual elimination of old pulp and paper production lines by some paper enterprises [1] - Leading companies benefit from environmental compliance advantages and large-scale production capabilities, creating favorable conditions for capturing market share and optimizing the competitive landscape [1] Company Summary - The company is responding to rising raw material costs and the industry's "anti-involution" initiative by initiating price adjustments for cultural paper, coated paper, and specialty paper products [1] - With the gradual ramp-up of the company's 700,000-ton chemical pulp project, the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp is increasing, effectively reducing dependence on imported wood pulp [1] - The company leverages the synergy between its "paper + chemical" dual main business to further optimize production costs in the paper business [1] - The ongoing improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the industry, along with the gradual release of high-end capacity and continuous upgrading of product structure, is expected to enhance the profitability elasticity of the paper business, providing strong momentum for the company's long-term stable development [1]

Core Insights - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a narrowing decline of 0.13% as of November 5, with notable gains from stocks like Xingfa Group and Sanmei Co. [1] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows totaling 102 million yuan over the past eight days, reaching a new high of 188 million shares, marking significant growth in scale [1] - A recent plan from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims for an annual growth rate of over 5% in the petrochemical industry, addressing issues of overcapacity and signaling a shift towards quality improvement [1] - The petrochemical sector is crucial for economic stability, with its value added expected to account for 14.9% of industrial output in 2024, growing at a rate of 6.6%, which is higher than the industrial average [1] Industry Overview - The petrochemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the top three sectors being refining and trading (25.60%), chemical products (23.72%), and agricultural chemicals (19.91%), which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at structural adjustment and the elimination of outdated capacity [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on November 4, with the China Securities Petroleum Industry Index experiencing fluctuations and currently down approximately 0.65%. Leading stocks include Hangzhou Oxygen Plant, Zhejiang Longsheng, and China Petroleum [1] - The oil output organization OPEC announced on November 2 that eight major oil-producing countries, including both OPEC and non-OPEC members, decided to maintain an increase in production by an average of 137,000 barrels per day in December, but will pause the increase plan for the first three months of 2026 [1] - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the market has a strong upward expectation for long-term oil prices. The mid and downstream sectors are stabilizing at the bottom and are awaiting improvement. Although there is still chemical production capacity being released, the expectation of reversing the trend of overcapacity will drive industry profit improvement, maintaining a positive outlook on the long-term value of leading companies in the mid and downstream sectors [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Securities Petroleum Industry Index. According to the Shenwan secondary industry classification, the top three industries in the index are refining and trading (26.8%), chemical products (22.4%), and agricultural chemicals (21.1%), which are expected to benefit significantly from policies aimed at reversing overcapacity, structural adjustments, and eliminating outdated production capacity [1]

中邮证券近日发布石化行业周报：地缘计价摇摆。关注OPEC+未来政策。持续关注反内卷进展，石化 行业中老旧装置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般， 较上周上涨0.05%。而中信三级行业指数表现来看，本周工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅 2.26%。 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 化、需求变化、其他等。（中邮证券 张津圣） 以下为研究报告摘要： 烯烃：样本聚烯烃现货价格大体平稳，库存下滑 标的： 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 投资要点 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般，较上周上涨0.05%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅2.26%。 原油：原油跌。美原油库存下降，汽油库存下降 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格大体平稳、价差涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数跌，织机开工率涨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive performance of the petrochemical ETF (159731), which has seen a net inflow of 0.99 billion yuan over the past five trading days, reaching a new high of 1.48 billion yuan in total assets [1] - Over 300 basic chemical companies have reported their Q3 2025 results, with more than 250 companies achieving profitability, and over 20 companies showing a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 100% [1] - The chemical industry is experiencing an increase in profitability and a rise in industry prosperity, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a gradually easing monetary policy that may bolster global petrochemical demand [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, which is primarily composed of refining and trading (25.60%), chemical products (23.72%), and agricultural chemical products (19.91%) [2] - The petrochemical industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition, restructuring, and eliminating outdated production capacity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing adjustments, with the Zhongzheng Petrochemical Industry Index showing a V-shaped reversal and increasing by approximately 0.5%, led by stocks such as Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, and New Fengming [1] Industry Analysis - According to Guojin Securities, supply-side control in the petrochemical and coal chemical industries is expected to be a focus in the first round of policy interventions, suggesting a need to track energy consumption control and new capacity management in these sectors [1] - The current policy aims to address low-price competition, indicating that industries with steep cost curves or significant process cost differences, as well as companies with effective cost management, are likely to benefit [1] ETF Performance - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the Zhongzheng Petrochemical Industry Index, which is composed of three major sectors: refining and trading (25.60%), chemical products (23.72%), and agricultural chemical products (19.91%), all of which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition, restructuring, and eliminating outdated capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market showed positive momentum with major indices opening higher, indicating potential investment opportunities following a recent market correction [1] Market Performance - On October 20, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.49%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.45% [1] - The China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index opened higher and experienced slight fluctuations, currently up approximately 0.35% [1] Sector Analysis - The leading stocks in the petrochemical sector include Cangge Mining, Jinfat Technology, and Tongcheng New Materials [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) is following the index's upward trend, highlighting its value proposition [1] Investment Strategy - Haitong International Securities suggests that after last week's concentrated pullback, the market is gradually presenting configuration value [1] - With the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the Communist Party and easing Sino-U.S. trade tensions, the market is expected to regain upward momentum [1] - Investors are advised to strategically position themselves in sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies and demand-side initiatives [1] Industry Composition - The top three industries within the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index are Refining and Trading (25.60%), Chemical Products (23.72%), and Agricultural Chemical Products (19.91%) [1] - These sectors are anticipated to benefit significantly from policies aimed at structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, after repeated digestion of policy benefits, the stock index may adjust after continuous rise; the expectation of three interest rate cuts by the Fed this year has been fully digested, and with the official entry into force of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and the cooling of risk aversion, gold should be wary of adjustments caused by the emergence of profit-taking selling pressure. In the medium to long term, the valuation of the stock index is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade frictions, and the stock index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. With the fading of concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, and the full digestion of the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year, gold faces the risk of a deep adjustment [41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In September this year, the official manufacturing PMI rose for two consecutive months but remained in the contraction range. Industrial production accelerated further, and demand improved marginally. New loans and social financing scale increased, the year - on - year decline of CPI and PPI narrowed, and import and export growth accelerated [3]. Stock Index Fundamental Data Enterprise Profit - From January to August this year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned positive year - on - year, and the growth rate of finished goods inventory continued to decline. However, due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises still faced great operating pressure, had difficulty passing on production costs to end - consumers, and had to actively reduce production and inventory [16]. Capital Situation - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 243.2575 billion yuan, reaching a new historical high. The central bank conducted 673.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 347.9 billion yuan [19]. Gold Fundamental Data Risk - Free Interest Rate: Holding Cost and Inflation Level - The US federal government has been in a shutdown, causing some economic data to be released late. There are differences within the Fed regarding future interest rate policies, and most officials support further interest rate cuts this year. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has fallen below the 4% mark [26][27]. US Consumer Confidence Index and Employment Situation - Not provided Domestic and Foreign Gold Inventory Situation - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [39]. Strategy Recommendation - Although domestic policy has continuously released positive signals, corporate profits have not significantly improved, and concerns about Sino - US trade tensions remain. The stock index may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound. With the repeated digestion of the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year and the easing of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, attention should be paid to the risk of a correction in gold after its rapid rise [40].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the petrochemical sector gaining traction, driven by supportive fiscal and monetary policies, as well as structural adjustments in the industry [1] Industry Summary - The petrochemical industry is expected to benefit from the steady implementation of policies aimed at expanding demand, optimizing supply-demand dynamics, and enhancing profitability [1] - The chemical industry is experiencing a favorable shift, with many commodity prices at historical low valuations, providing a high safety margin and potential for significant upside [1] ETF and Index Summary - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) is closely tracking the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index, which is composed of major sectors including refining and trading (25.60%), chemical products (23.72%), and agricultural chemicals (19.91%) [1] - The index is positioned to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition and eliminating outdated production capacity [1]

Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to cautiously go long [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the market has been speculating on the time and production line issues of the coal-to-gas conversion plan in Shahe, trading on the policy expectations of eliminating backward production capacity and anti-price involution. Technically, both long and short forces have weakened, but the trend remains strong. Against the backdrop of policy expectations, the glass futures market is expected to be more likely to rise than fall. Considering the frequent supply-side news disturbances, it is advisable to cautiously go long on the 01 contract and pay attention to the changes in Shahe production lines [3] Summaries by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - Main logic: Last week, glass futures fluctuated weakly. Some enterprises raised prices slightly, but due to holidays and rainfall, the shipment of float glass factories was restricted, and the trading in the northern and southern markets weakened. On the supply side, one production line resumed operation last week, and the daily melting volume increased slightly. The national factory inventory rebounded, and the inventories of traders in the main production areas of Shahe and Hubei also increased. Although the spot price has risen significantly recently, the market is still mainly selling at a discount, so the profit improvement is not obvious. On the demand side, downstream processors are still mainly waiting and maintaining just-in-time procurement. In the case of soda ash, after the holiday, the downstream replenishment is over, and the purchasing sentiment has cooled. However, the supply-side pressure continues, and the production is still expected to increase, so it is expected to fluctuate, with a weaker trend than glass [3] - Operation strategy: Cautiously go long [3][4] 2. Market Review - Spot Price - As of October 10, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,230 yuan/ton in North China (+10), 1,220 yuan/ton in Central China (0), and 1,340 yuan/ton in East China (+20). The glass 01 contract closed at 1,207 yuan/ton last Friday, down 63 yuan from the previous week [9][10] 3. Market Review - Basis - As of October 25, the soda ash futures price was 1,240 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,207 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 33 yuan/ton (-12). The basis of the glass 01 contract last Friday was -17 yuan/ton (+50), and the price difference between 01 and 05 contracts was -127 yuan/ton (-14) [11][15] 4. Profit - For the natural gas production process, the cost was 1,577 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was -237 yuan/ton (+21). For the coal gas production process, the cost was 1,164 yuan/ton (-17), and the gross profit was 75 yuan/ton (+32). For the petroleum coke production process, the cost was 1,091 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was 129 yuan/ton (+1). On October 10, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 567 yuan/ton [18] 5. Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 160,155 tons/day (+700). Currently, there are 225 production lines in operation. The first line of Dalian Yaopi in Liaoning with a daily melting volume of 700 tons resumed operation last week [20] 6. Inventory - As of October 10, the total inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,282.4 ten thousand weight boxes (+346.9). Among them, the factory inventory in Hubei was 433 ten thousand weight boxes (+85), the inventory in North China was 1,100.6 ten thousand weight boxes (+188), the inventory in Central China was 634.7 ten thousand weight boxes (+75.7), the inventory in East China was 1,371.1 ten thousand weight boxes (+78.6), the inventory in South China was 965.4 ten thousand weight boxes (+13.4), the inventory in Southwest China was 1,226.6 ten thousand weight boxes (-5.5), and the factory inventory in Shahe was 388 ten thousand weight boxes (+124) [25] 7. Deep Processing - On October 10, the comprehensive sales-to-production ratio of float glass was 90% (-16%), the operating rate of LOW-E glass was 45.2% (-1.9%), and in mid-September, the order days of glass deep processing were 10.5 days (+0.1) [28] 8. Demand - Automobile - In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 224,000 vehicles and a year-on-year increase of 323,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 2.857 million vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 264,000 vehicles and a year-on-year increase of 404,000 vehicles. In August, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.101 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [38] 9. Demand - Real Estate - In August, China's real estate completion area was 26.5913 million m², a year-on-year decrease of 21%; the new construction area was 45.9487 million m² (-20%); the construction area was 43.7767 million m² (-29%); and the commercial housing sales area was 57.4415 million m² (-11%). From September 29 to October 5, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 1.44 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 42% and a year-on-year increase of 58%. In August, the real estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20% [44] 10. Cost - Soda Ash (Futures) - Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,240 yuan/ton (-75). The basis of the soda ash Huazhong 01 contract last Friday was 60 yuan/ton (+75) [51][52] 11. Cost - Soda Ash (Profit) - As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia-alkali method for soda ash enterprises was 1,297 yuan/ton (-26), and the gross profit was -29 yuan/ton (+8); the cost of the joint production method was 1,712 yuan/ton (-55), and the gross profit was -77 yuan/ton (+1). Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,258 yuan/ton (+233), and the ex-factory price of wet ammonium chloride in Xuzhou Fengcheng was 300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [53][54][55] 12. Cost - Soda Ash (Production) - Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 77.08 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 0.66 tons), including 42.87 tons of heavy soda ash (a month-on-month decrease of 0.28 tons) and 34.21 tons of light soda ash (a month-on-month decrease of 0.38 tons). The number of soda ash warehouse receipts on the exchange last weekend was 7,053 (+2,736). As of October 10, the national in-plant inventory of soda ash was 165.95 tons (a month-on-month increase of 0.83 tons), including 92.07 tons of heavy soda ash (a month-on-month decrease of 0.17 tons) and 73.91 tons of light soda ash (a month-on-month increase of 1 ton) [62][67] 13. Cost - Soda Ash (Apparent Consumption) - Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 51.38 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.77 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 36.72 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.57 tons. The sales-to-production ratio of soda ash last week was 92.23%. In August, the soda ash inventory days of sample float glass factories were 23.6 days [70][71][74]