2025年11月21日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 现货价格短期见顶，盘面连续回落，符合目报预期，已建议部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1357.67点，较上期下跌9.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）999.69点，较上期下跌5.12% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点，较上期下跌6.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 979.34点，较上期上涨7.42% | | 11月14日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1052.43点，较上期下跌21.99% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1451.38点，较上期下跌43.72点， | 11月14日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1417USD/TEU，较上期上涨7.1% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1094.03点，较上期上涨3.4% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCF ...

2025年11月19日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) SCFIS持续下行，压制盘面持续下探，符合日报预期，可考虑部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月17日 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1357.67点, 较上期下跌9.8% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点, 较上期下跌6.9% 11月14日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1451.38点,较上期下跌43.72点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1417USD/TEU,较上期上涨7.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1823USD/FEU,较上期上下跌17.59% 11月14日 | 短期策略：主力合约回撤，远月合约较强，风险偏好者已建议 | | --- | | EC2602合约1550-1600区间轻仓试多,可考虑不分止盈,关注现货 | | 走势,不建议扛单,设置好止损。 | | 套利策略:国际局势动荡背景下,各合约仍保持季节性逻辑,波动 | | 较大,建议暂时观望或轻仓尝试。 | | 长期策略:各合约已建议冲高止盈,等待回调企稳后,在判断后续 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottoming process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [4]. - After the early settlement of the 2602 contract and the upward movement of SCFI, the bullish sentiment was boosted, and the main contract rose significantly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On November 17, the 02 contract opened high and moved high, with the overall disk oscillating strongly. The main contract 2602 closed at 1726.0, with a gain of 6.73%, a trading volume of 24,450 lots, and an open interest of 38,900 lots, an increase of 837 lots from the previous day [2][4]. Freight Index - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [3]. - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (comprehensive index) was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (comprehensive index) was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - In the US in October, the S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, expected 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, expected 52, and the previous value was 52; the comprehensive PMI preliminary value was 54.8, expected 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [4]. - In the Eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, expected 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, expected 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the comprehensive PMI preliminary value was 49.7, expected 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6. The Eurozone's October Sentix Investor Confidence Index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to spot trends, not carry losses, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or lightly try [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the freight futures market, mainly analyzing the prices, trends, and influencing factors of European line freight futures contracts, as well as recent news and market conditions [2]. 1. Futures Contract Price and Change 1.1 Futures Contract Prices and Fluctuations - EC2512: The price was 1749.4, with a change of 0.119%, and the trading volume was 22970, and the open interest decreased by 4048 to 21157 [2]. - EC2602: The price was 1636.6, a decrease of 3.19%, the trading volume was 27879, and the open interest increased by 3551 to 32901 [2]. - EC2604: The price was 1172.0, a decrease of 1.33%, the trading volume was 5188, and the open interest increased by 73 to 15483 [2]. - EC2606: The price was 1364.7, a decrease of 4.16%, the trading volume was 532, and the open interest increased by 144 to 1567 [2]. - EC2608: The price was 1472.1, a decrease of 4.712%, the trading volume was 336, and the open interest decreased by 5 to 1208 [2]. - EC2610: The price was 1129.9, a decrease of 0.67%, the trading volume was 609, and the open interest increased by 225 to 1833 [2]. 1.2 Month - to - Month Spread - EC2512 - 2504: The spread was 577.4, with a daily increase of 19.1 and a weekly decrease of 142.5 [2]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 112.8, with a daily increase of 57.2 and a weekly decrease of 203.4 [2]. - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 464.6, with a daily decrease of 38.1 and a weekly increase of 60.9 [2]. 2. Index Data 2.1 Index Values and Changes - Data Index: Updated weekly on Mondays. As of 2025/11/10, it was 1504.80 points, an increase of 24.50% from the previous period and a decrease of 7.92% expected in the next period [2]. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, a decrease of 1.56% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI: Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 1366.85 points, an increase of 3.25% from the previous period and an expected increase of 2.37% in the next period [2]. - NCFI: Updated weekly on Wednesdays. As of 2025/11/7, it was 911.73 points, a decrease of 5.8% from the previous period and an expected increase of 17.43% in the next period [2]. 3. Market Analysis and Outlook 3.1 Market Movement on Wednesday - In the morning, the market oscillated, and in the afternoon, it dropped across the board due to the news that the Houthi rebels officially announced to stop attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Contracts - EC2512: Its valuation is neutral and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rate in late November will determine the implementation degree of the price - holding in December. It is expected to mainly follow the changes in spot prices and the rhythm of shipping companies' price announcements in the future [2]. - EC2602: Its valuation is more difficult to anchor. In the short term, it is expected to mainly follow the trend of EC2512. If the peak - season cargo - booking situation is gradually realized in the future, it may have more room for growth. The peak freight rate usually occurs 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year) [3]. - EC2604: It is a off - season contract. In the short term, it will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the peak - season logic. Considering the expected greater supply pressure next year and the off - season in April, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3]. 4. Recent European Line Quotation Situation 4.1 Cargo - Booking Situation - In week 45, the cargo - booking situation was good; in week 46, the PA cargo - receiving improved slightly, but the shipping capacity in this week was extremely low. The pressure increased in the second half of November. Among them, PA improved, while MSK faced increased cargo - receiving pressure, and the pressure on OA decreased due to sailings suspension compared with the first half of the month [4]. 4.2 Price Levels - In week 46, the average landed price was 2000 dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures). Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November, but MSK opened the booking at 2250 dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period). It is expected that the quotes of other shipping companies will be gradually lowered this week, and they may also announce a price increase for December [4]. - In week 47, the offline PA price was around 2000 dollars, OA was 2200 - 2400 dollars, and MSK was 2000 dollars. OOCL lowered the online price for November by 300 dollars to 2600 dollars [4]. - On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking for week 48 at 1900 - 2000 dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 dollars on the futures [4]. 5. Related News - On 11/12, the Houthi rebels issued a statement saying that they would end their targeted actions against maritime interests related to Israel and stop armed attacks on merchant ships passing through the Red Sea. However, they warned that if the enemy continued to invade Gaza, they would resume military operations and the navigation ban on Israeli ships [5]. - On 11/12, Hamas stated that it had completed the first phase of the cease - fire agreement. A senior Hamas member said that the previous cease - fire agreement was only a "preliminary agreement" and not a final comprehensive one. The first - phase implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement had been in place for a month, but the second - phase negotiation had not started yet. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel was determined to enforce the cease - fire agreement with a "heavy hand" in Gaza and Lebanon [5].

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 11 月 10 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | | | | 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,778.2 | -33.8 | -1.87% | 20,403.0 | 19.17% | 26,680.0 | 3.06% | | EC2602 | 1,604.9 | 12.9 | 0.81% | 6,677.0 | 25.91% | 24,696.0 | 7.66% | | EC2604 | 1,166.1 | 1.5 | 0.13% | 1,652.0 | 38.47% | 14,451.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views of the Report - The market's bullish sentiment has weakened, some long positions have continued to reduce their holdings, and the market has continued to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] - The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Conditions - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, a 7.9% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1267.15 points, a 14.4% increase from the previous period [2] - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, a 4.24% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, a 5.58% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1349.1 points, a 7.14% decrease from the previous period [2] - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1495.10 points, a decrease of 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1323 USD/TEU, a 1.6% decrease from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, a 16.4% decrease from the previous period [2] - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, a 3.6% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, a 3.3% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 814.14 points, a 5.4% increase from the previous period [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9, the expected value was 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2, the expected value was 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7, the expected value was 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6; the Sentix investor confidence index in October was -9.2, and the predicted value was -8.5 [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in October was 55.2, the expected value was 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2, the expected value was 52; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8, the expected value was 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [3] - The Sino-US tariff extension negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [3] - On November 7, the main contract 2512 closed at 1812.0, a decrease of 1.79%, with a trading volume of 17,100 lots and an open interest of 25,900 lots, a decrease of 2525 lots from the previous day [3] Strategies - Short-term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far-month contracts are relatively strong, which is in line with the bottoming-out judgment. Risk-takers have been advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and all positions have been advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop-losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try lightly [4] - Long-term strategy: All contracts have been advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after the correction, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2][3]. - The bullish signals released by liner companies have warmed the market sentiment. Long - position funds have continuously entered, pushing up the futures price. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][3]. - For different time - frame strategies: in the short - term, risk - preference investors who have built positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 can consider partial profit - taking; in the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contract price surges and wait for the price to stabilize after the correction before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Freight Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1267.15 points, up 14.4%. On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1100.32 points, up 12.60%; for the European route, it was 965.62 points, up 17.43%; for the US - West route, it was 1452.82 points, up 12.30% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, up 147.24 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1344 USD/TEU, up 7.87%; for the US - West route, it was 2647 USD/FEU, up 22.94%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1021.39 points, up 2.9%; for the European route, it was 1323.81 points, up 2.4%; for the US - West route, it was 772.67 points, up 4.9% [2]. b. PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5, with the previous value of - 9.2 [2]. - **China**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stable corporate production and operation activities [2]. - **US**: In October, the S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [3]. c. Tariff and Trade - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [2][3]. d. Market Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak while the far - month contract is strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preference investors who have built positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 can consider partial profit - taking. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - loss should be set [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contract price surges and wait for the price to stabilize after the correction before making further judgments [3]. e. Market Conditions on November 5 - The main contract 2512 closed at 1946.0, with a 4.08% increase, a trading volume of 4.12 million lots, and an open interest of 34,100 lots, an increase of 3157 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rally signal has boosted bullish sentiment, causing the market to continue rising. It is not recommended to increase positions, and full profit - taking can be considered. Attention should be paid to the freight rates in November. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. For long - term strategies, it is advisable to take profits when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Freight Rate Index - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1267.15 points, up 14.4% from the previous period. On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1100.32 points, up 12.60% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 965.62 points, up 17.43% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1452.82 points, up 12.30% from the previous period. Also on October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1550.70 points, up 147.24 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1021.39 points, up 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1344 USD/TEU, up 7.87% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2647 USD/FEU, up 22.94% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1323.81 points, up 2.4% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 772.67 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - The preliminary Eurozone manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the preliminary service PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the preliminary composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5. In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The preliminary US S&P Global service PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [2][3]. Policy and Trade Information - The China - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures [2][3][4]. Market Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers who were advised to build positions below 1500 in the EC2512 contract (with a profit of over 300 points) can consider partial profit - taking. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is advisable to take profits when prices rise for each contract, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. Market Conditions - On November 5, the main contract 2512 closed at 1946.0, up 4.08%, with a trading volume of 4.12 million lots and an open interest of 34,100 lots, an increase of 3157 lots from the previous day. The price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the shipping industry. 2. Core View - Mainstream shipping companies have initiated price increase announcements for the second half of November, boosting the EC futures market. The spot freight rate decline slightly exceeded market expectations, mainly due to changes in the settlement index rhythm caused by vessel rolling and delays in late October. It is expected that the spot freight rate will gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies may continue to announce price increases. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Section I. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance** - On November 4, 2025, EC2512 closed at 1909.9 points, up 3.14% from the previous day. The SCFIS European line index reported on November 4 was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% week - on - week, while the SCFI European line reported on October 31 was $1344/TEU, up 7.9% week - on - week [6][7]. - Shipping companies such as CMA, HPL, and MSC have announced price increases for the second half of November, with targets between $3000 - 3100/FEU [7]. - **Logic Analysis** - Spot freight rates are expected to gradually rise. For example, HPL plans to raise the price to $3100 in the second half of November from around $2000 in the first half. CMA announced a price increase to $3000/FEU in the second half of November and set the online price at $3500 in December [8]. - From the fundamental perspective, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports in October, November, and December is 241,100 TEU, 260,400 TEU, and 289,200 TEU respectively, with a slight increase in December [8]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral trading: Wait and see as the market has factored in the peak - season expectations in advance, and short - term fluctuations are expected while waiting for the implementation of price increases [9]. - Arbitrage trading: Wait and see [10]. II. Industry News - Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has a fleet capacity of over 7 million TEU, accounting for 21.2% of the market share [11]. - The third - quarter corrugated carton shipments in the US fell to the lowest level since 2015, intensifying concerns about the holiday sales season [11]. - China and the EU held export control dialogue consultations in Brussels to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [11]. - Diplomatic responses were made regarding the potential US tariff increase on China and the situation in the Israel - Palestine conflict [11][12]. III. Related Attachments The report includes figures such as the SCFIS European line index and SCFIS US - West line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Shanghai Shipping Exchange, and other institutions [15][17][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The improvement in Sino-US tariff situation meets the daily report's rebound expectation, but it is not recommended to increase positions. Instead, partial profit-taking can be considered, and attention should be paid to the freight rates in November [1] - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Although the mutual reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the market to some extent, the freight rates in November may not reach the previously announced increase, suppressing the upward movement of the market. Under the game between long and short positions, the market is generally in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs SCFIS, NCFI Freight Rate Index - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, a 15.1% increase from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1107.32 points, a 28.2% increase from the previous period [2] - On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Rate Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1100.32 points, a 12.60% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 965.62 points, a 17.43% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1452.82 points, a 12.30% increase from the previous period [2] - On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate Index (SCFI) announced price was 1550.70 points, a 147.24-point increase from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1344 USD/TEU, a 7.87% increase from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2647 USD/FEU, a 22.94% increase from the previous period [2] - On October 31, the China Export Container Freight Rate Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1021.39 points, a 2.9% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1323.81 points, a 2.4% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 772.67 points, a 4.9% increase from the previous period [2] Economic Data - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a 0.8-percentage-point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, a 0.6-percentage-point decrease from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 45.9, with an expected value of 45.1 and a previous value of 45; the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 51.2, with an expected value of 51.5 and a previous value of 51.4; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7, with an expected value of 49.7 and a previous value of 49.6. The Eurozone's October Sentix Investor Confidence Index had a previous value of -9.2 and a predicted value of -8.5 [2] - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global service industry PMI was 55.2, with an expected value of 53.5 and a previous value of 54.2; the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2, with an expected value of 52 and a previous value of 52; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8, with an expected value of 53.1 and a previous value of 53.9 [3] Futures Market - On October 31, the main contract 2512 closed at 1804.0, with a decline of 2.54%, a trading volume of 59,500 lots, and an open interest of 31,400 lots, an increase of 1251 lots from the previous day [3] - The short-term strategy suggests that the main contract remains weak while the far-month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottoming-out judgment. Risk-takers who were advised to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 (with a profit margin of over 300 points) can consider partial profit-taking. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop-loss should be set [4] - The arbitrage strategy suggests that under the background of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - The long-term strategy suggests taking profits when each contract rises and waiting for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [4] - The daily limit for the 2508 - 2606 contracts has been adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for the 2508 - 2606 contracts has been adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts is 100 lots [4] Tariff Policy - The US will cancel the so-called "fentanyl tariff" of 10% imposed on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. China will adjust its countermeasures accordingly, and the two sides have agreed to continue to extend some tariff exclusion measures [5]