1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market continued to decline. The core contradiction of oversupply at the port remained unchanged, and the market lacked driving forces for improvement due to multiple negative factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand. In the near term, the overall methanol production increased as the output from restored production capacity exceeded the loss from maintenance and production cuts. The inventory of inland enterprises continued to decline, and the port inventory decreased. The short - term port - to - inland arbitrage space may remain open, and the high inventory may continue to suppress the port methanol market. The olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly this week and is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the port methanol market declined. The price in Jiangsu and Guangdong fluctuated between 1970 - 2090 yuan/ton. Inland supply shortages briefly improved local transactions, but the core contradiction of port oversupply remained [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland enterprise inventory declined, and port inventory decreased. The short - term port - to - inland arbitrage space may remain open, and the high inventory may continue to suppress the market. The olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly this week and is expected to remain stable next week [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 2.48% [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of November 21, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 134 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: As of November 20, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 6,581, a decrease of 4,998 from last week [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of November 20, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2,007.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 47.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of November 20, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 233 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 84 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton from last week [32]. - **Basis**: As of November 20, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 8.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.5 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of November 19, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of November 20, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [40]. 3.3.2 Industry - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of November 20, China's methanol production was 2,014,185 tons, an increase of 41,210 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 88.77%, a month - on - month increase of 2.09% [43]. - **Inventory**: As of November 19, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 246,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,479,300 tons, a decrease of 64,300 tons from the previous data. Both the East and South China regions saw inventory decreases [49]. - **Import Volume and Profit**: In October 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.6126 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.01%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 11.2793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.10%. As of November 20, the methanol import profit was - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.96 yuan/ton from last week [52]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Operating Rate**: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.12%. The load of East China olefin enterprises was slightly adjusted, and the overall weekly average operating rate increased slightly [55]. - **Profit**: As of November 20, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 448 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton from last week [58].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market has been experiencing a continuous decline since August 2025, with a drop of nearly 20%, primarily due to high inventory, high supply, and weak demand, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [3][4]. Group 1: Supply Factors - The direct driver of methanol's decline is the high inventory pressure along the coast, with port inventory exceeding 1.5 million tons since September [6]. - The increase in inventory is mainly due to high import volumes, with October's import unloading estimated at 1.65 million tons, and November expected to maintain high levels [6]. - Overseas methanol production capacity utilization remains high, particularly in Iran, where production limits have not met expectations, contributing to sustained inventory pressure [6]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand side remains weak, with many downstream products experiencing poor terminal demand and deteriorating profits, leading to reduced operating rates in methanol downstream procurement [10]. - Specific downstream sectors, such as acetic acid and MTBE, are facing supply growth outpacing demand growth, further pressuring profits and production rates [10]. - Seasonal factors are also at play, with expectations of reduced demand as winter approaches, particularly for products like formaldehyde [10]. Group 3: Regional Market Dynamics - Inland markets are showing relatively stronger performance compared to coastal markets, supported by higher coal prices, although there is a risk of reduced operating rates if profits continue to be squeezed [14]. - Recent data indicates a decrease in port inventory, suggesting some support for inland methanol prices, although supply is expected to increase in the short term [16]. Group 4: Summary and Outlook - The main methanol contract has seen fluctuations around 2,100 yuan/ton, recently accelerating its decline to around 2,000 yuan/ton due to weak market conditions and unmet production cut expectations from Iran [18]. - The overall outlook for the methanol market remains bearish in the short term, with limited recovery potential, although winter gas supply constraints may eventually ease pressure [18]. - Long-term prospects depend on actual supply reductions and demand recovery, with potential upward momentum if Iranian production cuts materialize [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market remained stable overall today, with a market average price of approximately 1,977 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. Regional prices showed a steady and adjusted trend, with prices in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other places remaining stable or fluctuating slightly, and prices in coastal and key regions such as Shandong and Taicang maintaining within a specific range. The main methanol futures fluctuated narrowly during the day, the basis trend was stable, and the coastal spot prices were slightly adjusted following the market. High port inventories put pressure on the market, resulting in a dull sentiment among buyers to enter the market and a general negotiation atmosphere. The demand side was differentiated. Some olefin plants in the northwest continued to purchase methanol externally, supporting the local market, but the demand from traditional downstream industries was weak. Most factories' raw material inventories were at medium to high levels and only made purchases as needed, with low acceptance of high - priced methanol. The inland market prices were narrowly adjusted under the interweaving of multiple and short factors [4]. 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market | Region | Present Value (yuan/ton) | Previous Value (yuan/ton) | Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Taicang | 2072 | 2072 | 0 | | Inner Mongolia North Line | 2005 | 2008 | -3 | | Shaanxi Guanzhong | 1945 | 1945 | 0 | | Xinjiang (outside the region) | 1620 | 1620 | 0 | | Shandong Linyi | 2180 | 2180 | 0 | | Henan | 2060 | 2055 | 5 | [1] Futures Market | Contract | Present Value (yuan/ton) | Previous Value (yuan/ton) | Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 | 2103 | 2108 | -0.24% | | MA2605 | 2209 | 2208 | 0.05% | [1] Transaction Price Range in Taicang on November 13th - 11:00 - 2080 - 2090 - 01:00 - 20 - 18 - 01:00 + 12 + 15 - 12:00 PM - 2115 - 2120 [1][3] Device Status - Shandong Yankuang Group Guohong's 640,000 - ton/year coal - to - methanol plant started double - furnace operation today and is expected to resume in about a week. - Yulin Kaiyue Coal Chemical's 700,000 - ton/year coal - to - methanol plant stopped for maintenance on October 10th. There was a problem with the boiler on November 11th, and it is expected to resume in 2 - 3 days. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - Methanol is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decrease. The near - term is still dominated by weak reality. High port inventory, high imports, and continued inventory accumulation trends, along with the marginal deterioration in the inland market and the delayed progress of gas - shutdown of Iranian devices, are putting pressure on methanol prices [3][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Production Cost and Profit - The price of thermal coal continues to rise. Affected by supply tightening and winter storage expectations, traders are generally optimistic about the winter storage market, with strong reluctance to sell. However, the current price has exceeded the acceptance level of downstream terminals, resulting in light actual transactions. The coal - to - methanol production profit has slightly deteriorated, and the natural - gas - to - methanol production is relatively under pressure [6][53]. Supply - This week, the number of restarted devices is more than that of overhauled devices, and the operating rate has increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the shutdown progress of natural - gas devices in the southwest. The external operating rate has declined. Iranian devices are operating at a high load, and it is reported that three enterprises plan to shut down from late November to December. Other regions have various device conditions, such as some devices in Tebah and Malaysia being in overhaul [6]. Demand - As the methanol price falls, the profit of port MTO has improved, and the inland methanol price has also loosened, with the MTO profit also rising. However, the future expectations for MTO devices are poor, with some devices having shutdown and overhaul plans. Traditional downstream demand is relatively flat, with different situations in various sub - industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, dimethyl ether, etc. [6][7]. Inventory - Inland inventory has increased by 10,400 tons to 386,400 tons compared with last week, and the enterprise order backlog has increased by 5,500 tons to 221,100 tons. Port inventory has increased by 10,600 tons to 1,517,100 tons, with inventory accumulation in the East China region and destocking in the South China region [7]. Regional Price Difference/Freight and Logistics Window - Port prices have stabilized after falling with the futures market, and the spot pressure is relatively high. Inland prices have rebounded, driven by large - scale device overhauls and increased external procurement of olefin devices. Freight rates are showing a weak downward trend. The opening and closing of logistics windows help to balance regional price differences and supply - demand disparities [14][24]. Domestic Production - End Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of coal - to - methanol has slightly deteriorated, and the natural - gas - to - methanol production is relatively under pressure. As of October 2025, the non - CTO device capacity has increased by 1.63% this year, and it is expected that the annual capacity growth rate will be 7.71%. This week, the number of restarted devices is more than that of overhauled devices, and the operating rate has increased slightly [53][78][82]. Import Profit, External Supply, and Import Volume - Global methanol prices are generally falling. The import profit of Iranian methanol and non - Iranian methanol shows certain trends. The external operating rate has declined, and the import volume and arrival volume have their own characteristics. The import volume in September was 1.4269 million tons, with a net import of 1.4092 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.22% but a month - on - month decrease of 19.01% [112][134][170]. Downstream Profit and Load - The profit of MTO has improved as the methanol price falls, but the future expectations for MTO devices are poor. Traditional downstream demand is relatively flat, with different profit and operating rate situations in various sub - industries [176][219].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is a weak and volatile outlook [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall supply of methanol was abundant, with high inventory levels and slow de - stocking, exerting significant downward pressure on prices. The demand was weak and differentiated, providing only limited support to the market. Although the cost side was supported by relatively strong raw materials, the production profit was under pressure, and the support was limited. The market sentiment was generally cautious, and the short - term price was likely to continue the weak and volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or seek opportunities within a certain range instead of aggressively short - selling [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, the domestic methanol supply remained abundant. The industry's operating load increased slightly, especially in the Northwest region. The capacity utilization rates of mainstream production processes such as coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol increased. Although some plants were newly shut down or continued to be out of operation, more plants resumed production, and the overall output showed an upward trend. The import volume was stable, and the port arrivals were sufficient. Coupled with the high previous inventory, the market supply was well - supported. Inland enterprises were eager to sell, and the flow of goods between ports and inland areas was smooth [2] Demand - This week, the downstream demand for methanol was generally weak and differentiated. The demand from the main downstream olefin (CTO/MTO) sector had some local support, and the purchasing willingness of some enterprises increased slightly. However, the overall industry operation did not improve significantly, and the incremental consumption of methanol was limited. The traditional downstream sectors performed differently. The operating loads of formaldehyde and MTBE increased slightly, while those of dimethyl ether and acetic acid decreased, and DMF remained stable. Most traditional products only met their rigid demand and had a weak willingness to increase purchases actively. The downstream buying interest at ports was insufficient, and although the local demand in inland areas improved slightly due to olefin procurement, it was not a widespread phenomenon. Overall, the demand side provided weak support to the methanol market [2] Inventory - This week, the methanol inventory was under high - level pressure. The port inventory remained at a historically high level. Although the unloading rhythm in some areas and the提货 volume in individual warehouses fluctuated slightly, the overall de - stocking speed was slow. With sufficient future arrivals, the port inventory pressure was not effectively relieved. The inventory in some ports in East China increased slightly, and that in South China adjusted slightly. The inland market inventory was differentiated. Most enterprises' inventories accumulated, while only a few regions saw a slight decline in inventory due to supply reduction caused by plant maintenance. Affected by sufficient supply, weak demand, and the back - flow of low - priced port goods, inland enterprises faced difficulties in selling, and the overall inventory remained at a relatively high level [2] Profit - This week, the overall profit of methanol was under pressure, and different production processes showed different performances. The profit of coal - based methanol shrank significantly as the rising price of raw coal pushed up production costs while the spot price of methanol declined, squeezing the profit margin. The profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol also decreased, and the loss of natural - gas - based methanol widened. The cost pressure was continuously transmitted to the production end. The profit of downstream sectors improved locally. Some products saw a slight improvement in profit due to the decline in methanol prices or their own supply - demand adjustments, but most downstream industries were still in the loss range, and the profit transmission in the entire industrial chain was not smooth, with no obvious improvement in the profitability [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - Iranian President Pezeshkian stated in a recent speech that the United States armed Israel while telling Iran not to have missiles or the right to self - defense. Iran does not want war but will not allow other countries to violate its rights. Pezeshkian also said that Iran has no intention of manufacturing nuclear weapons and is willing to negotiate within the framework of international law, but will not accept humiliation [2] Investment View - It is expected that the short - term price of methanol will continue the weak and volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking rhythm and plant start - stop dynamics. It is not recommended to aggressively short - sell, and it is advisable to wait and see or seek opportunities within a certain range [2] Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see with a bearish view; for arbitrage, it is also recommended to wait and see [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The downstream performance of methanol is not strong during the peak season. This week, the port inventory decreased slightly while the production area inventory increased. With the MTO economy being squeezed and some devices at risk of shutting down in November, and the domestic and imported supplies expected to remain high, the short - term methanol price will fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of 2100 - 2230 yuan/ton. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 15 - spread reverse arbitrage should be held [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract dropped 46 yuan to 2156 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region fell 33 yuan to 2157 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 20,369 lots to 783,800 lots, and short positions increased by 17,233 lots to 1,034,600 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 86.7%, a 1.2% increase from the previous period; the overseas methanol operating rate is 70.6%, a 2.6% decrease from the previous period [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 150.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 2.97 million tons, while that in South China increased by 2.40 million tons. The inventory of Chinese sample methanol production enterprises is 37.61 million tons, an increase of 1.57 million tons, a 4.36% increase from the previous period [1] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 5.13 million tons, a decrease of 1.17 million tons from the previous period. The orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 21.56 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons, a 0.04% decrease from the previous period. The olefin operating rate is 91.2%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.8%, a 0.5% increase from the previous period; the methyl chloride operating rate is 69.7%, a 3.2% decrease from the previous period; the acetic acid operating rate is 73.4%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; the formaldehyde operating rate is 40.2%, a 2% increase from the previous period; the MTBE operating rate is 67.9%, a 0.1% increase from the previous period [1] - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, meeting market expectations and the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] Market Logic - The downstream of methanol shows a weak performance in the peak season. This week, the port inventory decreased slightly while the production area inventory increased. The import volume in September was 142.69 million tons, a 18.9% decrease from the previous period. The MTO economy is squeezed, and some devices may shut down in November. With the domestic and imported supplies expected to remain high, the short - term methanol price will fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of 2100 - 2230 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 15 - spread reverse arbitrage should be held [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the context of multiple long and short factors, the methanol market is expected to remain in a volatile consolidation next week. Inland, the low inventory of upstream factories, the firm coal prices, and the relatively low methanol prices in production areas support the market, but the high overall inland operating rate, supply pressure in some areas, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories limit the upside and downside. In ports, the postponement of Iranian import cargo unloading due to sanctions reduces the downward momentum, but the weak fundamentals lead to high - volatility with both upward and downward movements. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of sanctions, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operating rates [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Review - The methanol market is affected by multiple factors, with different situations inland and in ports. Inland has cost support but also supply and demand contradictions, while ports are influenced by sanctions and have weak fundamentals [5]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From October 17th to October 24th, the spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.41%, in Hebei by 1.58%, in Inner Mongolia by 0.61%, and in Fujian by 1.10%, while the price in Lunan remained unchanged [6]. 2.2 Methanol Basis - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 1.41% from October 17th to October 24th, while the futures price remained unchanged. The basis decreased from 0 to - 32 [8]. 2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 77 from October 17th to October 24th. Natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 40, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit decreased by 325 [10]. 2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% from last week to this week, and the load in the northwest decreased by 3.55% [12]. 2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - From October 17th to October 24th, CFR China decreased by 0.38%, CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 0.61%, and the spread between them increased by 1 [15]. 2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The spot price decreased by 1.41% from October 17th to October 24th, the import cost decreased by 0.39%, and the import spread decreased by 23 [18]. 2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from October 17th to October 24th [25]. 2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit increased by 16, and the load increased by 0.90%. Dimethyl ether production profit increased by 50, and the load increased by 0.82%. Acetic acid production profit increased by 18, and the load increased by 1.94% [26][28][33]. 2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - MTO production profit increased by 102, and the MTO/MTP device load decreased by 0.15%. In the East China region, the load increased by 3.02%, and in the South China region, it decreased by 1.93% [37][38]. 2.10 Methanol Port Inventories - No specific inventory data were given, but it was mentioned that port inventories were high [5]. 2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased by 24.91% from October 17th to October 24th, and effective forecasts decreased by 100% [43]. 3. Maintenance Status 3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end dates, raw materials, and maintenance losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat (coke oven gas, 100,000 - ton annual capacity) started maintenance in early November 2024, and the end date is to be determined, with a weekly maintenance loss of 1,950 tons [45]. 3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Overseas methanol devices have different operation statuses. Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting or recovery, while some in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally [46]. 3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Some olefin devices are in maintenance, while others are operating stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices stopped for maintenance on March 15th, expected to last for 45 days [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2270 - 2350 in the short - term [7] - After the holiday, the methanol spot market was weak. Downstream buyers had sufficient pre - holiday stocks, and the actual transaction price of downstream products decreased passively [8] - Recently, the output of the restored methanol production capacity in China was more than the loss of the overhauled and reduced - production capacity, and the overall output increased slightly. Next week, the planned overhaul and reduction - production capacity will be less than the planned restored capacity, which may lead to a further increase in the utilization rate of domestic methanol plant capacity and output [8] - During the holiday, the downstream提货节奏 slowed down and the提货 volume was limited. The inventory of inland enterprises increased as a whole, but the inventory of enterprises in the northwest region decreased instead of increasing. The methanol port inventory accumulated, and there was still a possibility of an increase in port inventory in October [8] - In terms of demand, some previously overhauled devices such as Qinghai Salt Lake have restarted one after another. The MTO industry has maintained a high - level operation as a whole. The ethylene olefin device of Zhongyuan Ethylene is expected to stop in the later stage, and other devices are operating stably. The short - term industry operating rate may decline slightly [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Key Points Summary - Strategy: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2270 - 2350 in the short - term [7] - Market review: After the holiday, the methanol spot market was weak. Downstream buyers had sufficient pre - holiday stocks, and the actual transaction price of downstream products decreased passively [8] - Market outlook: Domestic methanol production may increase, inland enterprise inventory increased as a whole, northwest enterprise inventory decreased, port inventory accumulated, and the short - term demand side operating rate may decline slightly [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.9% [12] - As of October 10, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 44 [16] - As of October 10, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 11,382, a decrease of 480 from last week [22] - **Spot Market** - As of October 10, the mainstream price in the East China Taicang area was 2,222.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in the Inner Mongolia area in the northwest was 2,077.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and the northwest was 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.5 yuan/ton from last week [27] - As of October 9, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 256 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 70 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton from last week [33] - As of October 10, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 84.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3.3 Industrial Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of September 24, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [40] - As of October 10, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.24 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [40] - **Industry** - As of October 9, China's methanol production was 2,032,905 tons, an increase of 103,580 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.59%, a month - on - month increase of 5.36% [43] - As of October 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 339,400 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.08%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 115,200 tons, a decrease of 157,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 57.79% [48] - As of October 9, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,543,200 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in the East China region increased by 47,800 tons, and the inventory in the South China region increased by 3,200 tons [48] - In August 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.7598 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59.59%; from January to August 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 8.2398 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.52% [53] - As of October 9, the methanol import profit was 2.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.02 yuan/ton from last week [53] - **Downstream** - As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 93.74%, a month - on - month increase of 4.49% [56] - As of October 10, the domestic methanol - to - olefins spot profit was - 999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from last week [59]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2420 in the short term [7]. - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts in the domestic methanol industry is more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a slight decrease in overall production [8]. - The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises showed differences this week. Some enterprises continued to accumulate inventory due to weak downstream demand, while the overall inventory decreased as some olefin plants consumed the accumulated methanol inventory. The methanol port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. - In terms of demand, some olefin plants are under maintenance, while the operating load of enterprises in East China has slightly increased. The overall operating rate of the olefin industry is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The domestic port methanol market fluctuated slightly this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2380 - 2410 yuan/ton. The inland market showed regional differentiation, with prices in Ordos North Line ranging from 1973 - 1990 yuan/ton and in Dongying from 2245 - 2250 yuan/ton. The price in the Guanzhong area was weak [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The overall domestic methanol production decreased slightly. The inventory of inland enterprises showed differences, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The overall operating rate of the olefin industry is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the main methanol futures contract in Zhengzhou fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.21% [12]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of July 18, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 69 [16]. - **Open Interest Analysis**: No specific analysis results were mentioned in the provided content. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, there were 8544 methanol warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 146 compared to last week [23]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of July 18, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2387.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 1982.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 405 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to last week [29]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of July 17, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 275 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 58 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [35]. - **Basis**: As of July 18, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 22.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to last week [39]. 3.4 Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of July 16, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. As of July 17, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.51 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.14 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [42]. - **Industry**: As of July 17, China's methanol production was 1,869,725 tons, a decrease of 30,003 tons compared to last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 82.69%, a decrease of 1.58% month - on - month [46]. - **Inventory**: As of July 16, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 790,200 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, a decrease of 0.46% compared to the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 243,100 tons, an increase of 9.89% compared to the previous period [49]. - **Import**: In May 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.2923 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.06%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.3694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.43%. As of July 17, the methanol import profit was - 2.79 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.92 yuan/ton compared to last week [53]. - **Downstream**: As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.27%. As of July 18, the domestic methanol - to - olefin profit was - 882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton compared to last week [56][60].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - Yesterday, methanol prices in multiple regions saw a slight increase. In the northwest main production area, enterprise inventories were at a low level, and the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices increased, leading to higher auction transaction prices. The positive sentiment in the futures market drove smooth new - order transactions in the afternoon, with some enterprises suspending sales and holding prices, pushing up the spot prices. Downstream buyers are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and after replenishing at low prices earlier, their purchases have become more rational. The market trend depends on the downstream procurement transactions on Tuesday [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production increased from 268,235.00 to 269,435.00, an increase of 1,200.00. The domestic operating rate rose from 83.04 to 83.41, an increase of 0.37, while the international operating rate remained unchanged at 72.33 [1]. Import - The arrival weight remained unchanged at 31.03 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 356,900.00 and 718,900.00 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained unchanged at 221,240.00. The operating rates of various downstream products remained mostly unchanged, with only the MTBE price rising from 5,000.00 to 5,050.00, an increase of 50.00 [1]. Associated Product Prices - Most associated product prices remained unchanged, with only the MTBE price increasing by 50.00 [1].