Q&A 136 号文件出台的背景和总体目标是什么？ 对话专家：136 号文对电煤的中长期影响推演 20250924 摘要 136 号文件标志着新能源告别全额保障性收购，全面进入市场交易，对 电力市场化和全国统一电力市场建设具有划时代意义，旨在缓解工商业 用户成本压力并提高电网调节能力。 新能源全面入市改变了火电在现货市场中的主体地位，尤其在午间低谷 时段，火电面临负电价风险，同时辅助服务成本增加进一步加剧了火电 的经营压力。 存量新能源项目受到政策调整影响，部分省份已开始降低或调整标杆上 网电价；增量项目收益率显著下降，如山东户用光伏收益率从 15%降至 7%，预计该效应将扩展至其他省份。 新型储能通过峰谷套利对火电形成竞争压力，国家政策推动储能发展， 增加了市场参与主体，间接压制了晚高峰时段的市场价格，影响火电的 竞争力和收益。 当前电力市场供过于求，2025 年 1-8 月全国用电量增长低于预期，新 增新能源装机导致弃电率上升，火电利用小时数同比下降约 160-180 小 时，预计 2026 年该趋势将持续。 136 号文件于 2025 年 3 月出台，其背景主要是由于新能源发展速度过快，特 别是 202 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 华泰证券研报指出，近日国家发改委发布《电力中长期市场基本规则（征求意见稿）》，针对电力中长 期市场的参与主体、交易品种、电价机制进行修订。过去几个月"136号文"各省承接文件加速出台，新 能源发展进入电价新时代。电力市场化政策细节正在持续丰富，继续看好风电、储能、电力设备结构性 机会。 ...

Core Insights - The solar energy industry is experiencing a significant decline in new installations, with July 2025 seeing a 47.6% year-on-year decrease in new photovoltaic installations, totaling 11.0 GW [7] - Despite the decline in installations, inverter exports have maintained growth, with July 2025 inverter export value reaching 6.51 billion yuan, a 16.3% increase year-on-year [7] - The overall solar power generation in July 2025 increased by 28.7% year-on-year, contributing to 8.03% of the total national industrial power generation [7] Industry Analysis - **Photovoltaic Installations**: In July 2025, the cumulative new photovoltaic installations for the first seven months reached 223.25 GW, reflecting an 80.7% year-on-year increase [7] - **Component Exports**: The export value of photovoltaic components in July 2025 was 15.89 billion yuan, a 13.7% decrease year-on-year, while the cumulative export value for the first seven months was 111.25 billion yuan, down 22.6% year-on-year [7] - **Inverter Exports**: The cumulative export value of inverters for the first seven months of 2025 was 37.11 billion yuan, showing a 9.0% year-on-year increase [7] Company Performance - The company reported a revenue of 4.597 billion yuan for H1 2025, a 43.92% decrease year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 594 million yuan, only a 1.27% decline [9] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a mid-term payout ratio of 45.7% [9] - The company's gross profit margin improved significantly to 30.34%, an increase of 11.96 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure optimization and rising gold prices [9] Sales Channels - The revenue distribution for H1 2025 was as follows: self-operated offline channels contributed 19.37%, online channels 25.41%, and franchise channels 52.76% [9] - The self-operated offline channel revenue was 890 million yuan, a 7.56% decline year-on-year, while the franchise channel revenue dropped significantly by 59.12% to 2.425 billion yuan [9] Product Performance - The revenue from embedded products in H1 2025 was 286 million yuan, down 23.08%, while the revenue from pure gold products was 3.415 billion yuan, down 50.94% [9] - The gross profit margins for embedded and pure gold products improved to 30.40% and 16.77%, respectively, reflecting increases of 4.38 and 6.98 percentage points year-on-year [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the solar sector, with specific ratings as follows: - Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Buy-B - Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) - Buy-B - Daqian Energy (688303.SH) - Buy-B - Flat Glass Group (601865.SH) - Buy-A - Hengdian East Magnetic (002056.SZ) - Buy-A - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) - Buy-A - Canadian Solar (688472.SH) - Buy-A - Deye Technology (605117.SH) - Buy-A - Langxin Group (300682.SZ) - Buy-B - Quartz Co., Ltd. (603688.SH) - Buy-A [1] Core Insights - In July 2025, the domestic photovoltaic (PV) new installed capacity was 11.0 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 23.1%. Cumulatively, from January to July, the new installed capacity reached 223.25 GW, representing an increase of 80.7% year-on-year [2][12]. - The export value of PV components in July was 15.89 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year but up 0.5% month-on-month. The cumulative export value from January to July was 111.25 billion yuan, down 22.6% year-on-year [2][14]. - In contrast, the inverter export value in July was 6.51 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.3% but a slight month-on-month decline of 1.2%. The cumulative export value from January to July was 37.11 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year [3][29]. - Solar power generation in July increased by 28.7% year-on-year, with a total generation of 74.43 billion kWh, accounting for 8.03% of the total industrial power generation in the country [4][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Installed Capacity - In July 2025, the domestic PV new installed capacity was 11.0 GW, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 47.6% and a month-on-month decline of 23.1%. The cumulative installed capacity from January to July reached 223.25 GW, marking an 80.7% increase year-on-year [12]. 2. Exports - **Components**: The export value of PV components in July was 15.89 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year but up 0.5% month-on-month. The cumulative export value from January to July was 111.25 billion yuan, down 22.6% year-on-year [14]. - **Inverters**: The inverter export value in July was 6.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.2%. The cumulative export value from January to July was 37.11 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year [29]. 3. Solar Power Generation - In July, solar power generation increased by 28.7% year-on-year, totaling 74.43 billion kWh, which accounted for 8.03% of the total industrial power generation in the country [42]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies based on various strategic directions: - New technology: Aishuo Co., Ltd., Longi Green Energy - Supply-side improvement: Daqian Energy, Flat Glass Group - Overseas expansion: Hengdian East Magnetic, Sungrow Power Supply, Canadian Solar, Deye Technology - Market-oriented power: Langxin Group - Domestic substitution: Quartz Co., Ltd. - Additional companies to watch include Xinyi Solar, GCL-Poly Energy, Tongwei Co., Ltd., TCL Zhonghuan, New Special Energy, Dier Laser, Foster, Haiyou New Materials, JA Solar, Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, CITIC Bo, Maiwei, Jinglong Technology, Shanghai Ailu, and Guangxin Materials [47].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the utility sector, indicating potential for increased dividends and capital expenditure reductions, which could lead to share buybacks [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the surge in electricity consumption by 8.6% in July 2025 is expected to continue into Q3, improving fixed costs for coal power [5]. - It notes that the increase in dividend rates by GD Power Development from 50% to 60% and the share buyback plans from major shareholders signal a competitive environment among thermal power companies [5]. - The report emphasizes the ample cash flow in the electricity sector, suggesting numerous investment opportunities [2][5]. Summary by Sections - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Index surpassed 3800 points, with the power sector expected to follow the trend seen in 2014-2015 after the internet boom [5]. - **Electricity Consumption**: By July 2025, total electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, with significant year-over-year increases across various sectors [5]. - **Power Market Reforms**: Multiple regions are advancing power spot market reforms, with trials for continuous settlement underway in several provinces [5]. - **External Power Supply**: Zhejiang province has increased its external power supply, purchasing an additional 4.4 million kW from other regions [5]. - **Energy Storage Growth**: In H1 2025, new energy storage installations reached 23.03 GW, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 20% for the next five years [5]. - **Peak Load Records**: Jiangsu province's peak load hit a record 155 million kW, with significant contributions from wind and solar power [5].

Summary of Citic Bo Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Citic Bo - **Industry**: Photovoltaic (PV) sector, specifically focusing on tracking and fixed mounting systems Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Citic Bo achieved revenue of **4 billion** CNY and a profit of **158 million** CNY, with total orders amounting to **7.2 billion** CNY, including **5.8 billion** CNY in tracking orders and **1.4 billion** CNY in fixed orders [3][4] - The overall gross margin decreased to approximately **8%**, down from **12%** the previous year, primarily due to an increase in low-margin fixed orders and a decline in tracking support margins from **20.8%** to over **19%** [2][3] Market Dynamics - The company aims for a **20%** revenue growth target for the year despite a reduction in delivery volumes in the Indian market, with a **11%** year-on-year increase in tracking orders when excluding last year's large orders from Adani [2][5] - Domestic policy adjustments and anti-competitive practices have led to delays in some power station projects, affecting the bidding process and potentially impacting Q3 shipment schedules [2][6] Order and Delivery Challenges - Citic Bo currently holds tracking orders worth approximately **5-6 billion** CNY, indicating sufficient order volume, but large-scale orders have longer delivery cycles, posing challenges for timely deliveries [2][9] - The company is adjusting its delivery schedule and signing new small to medium-sized orders to meet its annual growth target [9][10] Strategic Focus - Citic Bo continues to pursue market share in the domestic market by converting fixed orders to tracking orders, which can enhance gross margins [10][18] - The domestic market for tracking systems is expected to grow steadily, with potential for explosive growth in the future despite current slow growth [24] International Market Outlook - The company anticipates an increase in the proportion of overseas tracking orders, particularly from Latin America and Europe, which is expected to boost gross margins [4][12] - The global PV market is projected to see an increase in order volumes, with significant projects emerging in regions like Saudi Arabia [14][15] Product Development - Citic Bo has introduced flexible mounting systems, which have seen limited revenue so far but are expected to gain market acceptance over time [17] - The transition from fixed to tracking systems is being actively promoted in the domestic market to improve profitability and efficiency [18] Competitive Landscape - Citic Bo aims to become the leading company in the global PV sector, currently competing with Tracker, which holds over **20%** market share [25] - The company has achieved a **16%** market share globally, with significant growth potential if U.S. investments in PV and wind energy decline [25] Future Projections - The overall gross margin is expected to improve in the second half of 2025 due to a favorable shift in delivery regions and a potential reduction in domestic tracking system deliveries [20][21] - The company is preparing for potential market fluctuations and is focused on maintaining its growth trajectory despite challenges [21][22] Additional Important Insights - The domestic electricity market's transition towards marketization is still not evident, but Citic Bo is making internal adjustments to align with future demands [23][24] - The company emphasizes the importance of market share over immediate production, reflecting a strategic focus on long-term growth [22]

Core Insights - The price of electricity has slightly decreased, which is expected to inject strong momentum into business development [1] - The State Grid Lanzhou New Area Power Supply Company is implementing tailored services to help enterprises reduce electricity costs, receiving positive feedback from the Lanzhou municipal government [1][3] Group 1: Cost Reduction Initiatives - The company provides customized services, including one-on-one electricity price analysis reports and cost-reduction suggestions, which have significantly benefited local businesses [3] - For instance, a chemical company was able to save 300,000 yuan per month by switching to a demand-based billing model [3] - The company has conducted comprehensive visits to the top 150 electricity users, gathering over 200 demand insights to provide targeted recommendations [3] Group 2: Policy and Market Strategies - The goal is to have the average industrial electricity price in the New Area lower than the provincial average by 1 cent by 2025 [5] - The average electricity price for industrial enterprises in the province is 0.4505 yuan per kilowatt-hour, with the New Area's price being 1.1 cents lower, resulting in significant savings for businesses [5] - In the first half of the year, the New Area's industrial electricity pricing strategy achieved an 81% rationality rate, the highest in the province [5] Group 3: Development and Growth - The company has successfully connected key projects to the power grid, leading to a significant increase in electricity sales, which reached 4.287 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year growth of 23.96% [5] - Continuous efforts are being made to enhance service quality, including regular policy promotions and hands-on guidance for enterprises to navigate market transactions [7] - The integration of AI and big data is being utilized for monthly energy efficiency diagnostics, promoting a green transition in energy consumption [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The World Robot Conference showcased over 1,500 robot products, indicating a growing interest and innovation in robotics [3]. - The photovoltaic industry chain prices remain stable, with expectations for continued price stability in the near term [6][7][8][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations - Preferred stocks include: - Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Buy - B - Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) - Buy - B - Daqian Energy (688303.SH) - Buy - B - Fulete (601865.SH) - Buy - A - Hengdian East Magnetic (002056.SZ) - Buy - A - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) - Buy - A - Canadian Solar (688472.SH) - Buy - A - Deyang Co., Ltd. (605117.SH) - Buy - A - Langxin Group (300682.SZ) - Buy - B - Quartz Co., Ltd. (603688.SH) - Buy - A [2]. Market Trends - The multi-crystalline silicon price is stable at 44.0 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease in transaction volume compared to the previous week [6]. - The silicon wafer prices remain unchanged, with N-type silicon wafers priced at 1.20 CNY/piece for 182-183.75mm and 1.35 CNY/piece for 182*210mm [7]. - Battery cell prices are stable, with N-type battery cells priced at 0.290 CNY/W for 182-183.75mm and 0.285 CNY/W for 182*210mm [8]. - Module prices are also stable, with TOPCon double-glass modules priced at 0.685 CNY/W and N-type HJT modules at 0.830 CNY/W [9]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - The National Energy Administration is establishing a "green channel" for large-scale wind and photovoltaic bases to better meet the needs of new energy development [5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law, focusing on price behavior norms and regulatory mechanisms [4].

Core Viewpoint - Despite initial concerns regarding domestic energy storage demand following the cancellation of mandatory storage policies, actual installation volumes and tender data from June to July have exceeded expectations, indicating a new development opportunity in the domestic large-scale energy storage market driven by supportive local policies [1][4]. Policy Support and Economic Viability - Following the release of the "Document No. 136," provinces have actively introduced supportive policies, creating a three-dimensional driving system centered on capacity pricing, spot markets, and green electricity direct connection [3]. - The capacity pricing mechanism is expected to enhance the economic viability of energy storage projects, with a 100MW/200MWh storage station projected to generate an additional annual income of 11 million yuan and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 16.3% [3]. - The construction of the electricity spot market is accelerating, with a goal for nationwide coverage by the end of 2025, which is anticipated to expand the arbitrage opportunities for energy storage [3]. Market Trends and Project Development - From January to May 2025, new tender projects for energy storage reached 153.1 GWh, while the installed capacity was only 47.6 GWh, indicating a lag in project integration [4]. - The tender scale for energy storage in June and July showed a month-on-month increase, reaching 23.5 GWh and 25.8 GWh respectively, with independent storage projects dominating [4]. - The investment landscape is diversifying, with increased participation from social capital alongside traditional power generation groups, signaling the emergence of market-driven demand [4]. Long-term Outlook and Market Dynamics - The domestic large-scale energy storage market is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "high-quality development," favoring companies with technological strength and market operational capabilities [5]. - The dual support of policy guidance and market-driven mechanisms is expected to diversify revenue sources for energy storage projects, including capacity pricing, peak-valley arbitrage, and green certificate trading [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the market sentiment regarding domestic energy storage demand post the cancellation of mandatory storage requirements (Document No. 136) is relatively pessimistic, despite better-than-expected installation and bidding data for June and July [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The actual installation data for June and the bidding results for June and July have exceeded previous expectations, primarily due to the introduction of supportive policies, especially at the local level, which have improved the economic viability of independent energy storage projects [1] - The report highlights that the market demand is emerging as a result of these supportive policies, alongside the potential lag in the implementation of previously planned projects [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Huatai Securities believes that local supportive policies are crucial short-term drivers for the energy storage market, while the long-term profitability model for domestic energy storage is expected to become clearer under a market-oriented electricity system [1] - The company is optimistic about the continuous growth of large-scale energy storage demand in China, anticipating a shift towards high-quality development in the sector [1]