百威亚太:2025年盈利预测下调 14%,目标价降至9.3港元 【9月29日大摩下调百威亚太盈利及销售预测】因市况严峻，大摩对百威亚太相关预测做出调整。考虑 到中国第三季啤酒需求疲弱，影响其高端和超高端啤酒类别，且去库存持续，大摩将百威亚太2025年盈 利预测下调14%，销售额及经营利润预测分别下调7%及13%。 同时，大摩从2025年低基数出发，将百 威亚太2026至2027年盈利预测下调8%。目标价由9.5港元下调至9.3港元，评级仍为"增持"。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 09.29 11:24:15 周一 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 【9月29日大摩下调百威亚太盈利及销售预测】 因 市况严峻,大摩对百威亚太相关预测做出调整。考 虑到中国第三季啤酒需求疲弱,影响其高端和超高 端啤酒类别,且去库存持续,大摩将百威亚太2025 年盈利预测下调14%,销售额及经营利润预测分别 下调7%及13%。同时,大摩从2025年低基数出 发，将百威亚太2026至2027年盈利预测下调8%。 目标价由9.5港元下调至9.3港元,评级仍为"增 持"。 本文由 Al 算 ...

大摩发表报告指，由于市况仍然严峻，将百威亚太2025年盈利预测下调14%，同时将销售额及经营利润 预测分别下调7%及13%，以考虑到中国于第三季啤酒需求持续疲弱，影响到公司的高端和超高端啤酒 类别，而去库存情况仍在持续。大摩将百威亚太2026至2027年盈利预测从2025年的低基数下调8%，目 标价相应由9.5港元下调至9.3港元，评级"增持"。 ...

花旗发表研究报告指，海天国际管理层透露近期订单出现放缓，目前预测下半年收入增长可能降至高单 位数，低于上半年的12.5%增幅。该行将该公司剔出中国工业首选名单，并将2025至2027年盈利预测下 调2%，目标价由33.5港元降至30港元，但仍维持"买入"评级，认为现价估值偏低，而股息回报约4%。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has lowered the sales forecast for China National Pharmaceutical Group (03933) for the years 2023 to 2027 by 17.7% to 17.8% [1] - The earnings forecast has been reduced by 28.4% to 35.6% [1] - The firm expects a weak price cycle for antibiotic active pharmaceutical ingredients over the next two years [1] Group 2 - The sales of the company in the first half of the year increased by 5% year-on-year to 7.5 billion RMB [1] - Core business revenue decreased by 15% year-on-year to 6.1 billion RMB, which was below the firm's expectation of 6.5 billion RMB [1] - Profit increased by 27% year-on-year to 1.9 billion RMB, but core profit declined and was below the firm's expectations [1] Group 3 - The firm has raised the target price for the stock from 15.29 HKD to 16.07 HKD, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] - The sales forecast for high-margin insulin products has been increased by 27% to 30%, benefiting from incremental sales due to exports [1] - The company's gross margin for intermediates and bulk pharmaceuticals has been eroded, and increased administrative expenses due to business expansion consulting fees have been noted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with a revenue of HKD 49.8 billion, down 4% YoY, and a net profit of HKD 2.403 billion, down 30% YoY, primarily due to a decline in connection numbers and comprehensive service revenue, leading to a decrease in gross profit margin [1] Financial Performance - 1H25 natural gas retail volume was 20.8 billion cubic meters, down 0.7% YoY, with commercial and industrial gas volumes affected by a warm winter, decreasing by 3% and 2% respectively [1] - Retail gas gross margin was HKD 0.55 per cubic meter, up HKD 0.01 YoY, with 831,000 new residential connections, down 19% YoY, and comprehensive service revenue of HKD 1.45 billion, down 18% YoY [1] Development Trends - The company adjusted multiple growth indicators for 2025, including gas volume growth (low single-digit growth vs. previous guidance of +4-5% YoY), connection numbers (2.1-2.2 million vs. previous 2.3-2.5 million), and comprehensive service revenue (mid-low single-digit growth vs. previous +20-30% YoY) [1] - Capital expenditure for acquisitions was adjusted to HKD 300 million for the year, down from HKD 500 million previously, while maintaining a gross margin growth guidance of HKD 0.01 per cubic meter to HKD 0.54 per cubic meter [1] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns, with a guidance for total dividends in 2025 not to be lower than HKD 0.95 per share, implying a dividend yield of approximately 5% based on current stock price [2] - A stock buyback plan was announced for the end of 2024, with a scale of no less than 1.98% of total share capital, which is expected to further improve shareholder returns [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to ongoing pressure on connection numbers, the company has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 8.2% and 10.2% to HKD 3.767 billion and HKD 4.110 billion respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 11.7x for 2025 and 10.7x for 2026, with a target price adjustment down by 7.4% to HKD 25, reflecting a potential upside of 31.2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jiamaojiu (09922) has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 3% following the release of its mid-year results for 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the restaurant industry [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2.753 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 10.1% [1] - The profit attributable to equity shareholders was 60.691 million yuan, down 16% compared to the previous year [1] Same-Store Sales - The same-store sales growth rates for the company's main brands were as follows: Taier at -19.0%, Song Hotpot at -20.1%, and Jiamaojiu at -19.8% [1] Store Closures - In the first half of the year, the company closed a net total of 88 stores, primarily due to the expiration of lease agreements and underperformance of certain restaurants [1] Analyst Revisions - Morgan Stanley has revised its earnings per share forecasts for Jiamaojiu for 2025 to 2027 down by 9%, 6%, and 10% respectively, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand year-to-date [1] - The target price has been adjusted from 2.3 HKD to 2.1 HKD, maintaining a "Reduce" rating [1] Market Impact - The company is expected to face selling pressure in the short term due to its removal from the Hang Seng Composite Index effective September 8, which will exclude it from the Hong Kong Stock Connect program [1] - As of August 22, southbound funds held 311.7 million shares, accounting for 22.3% of the total share capital and 44.4% of the free float [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiumaojiu (09922) has experienced a decline of over 3%, with a current price of 2.61 HKD and a trading volume of 57.16 million HKD, following the release of its mid-year results for 2025, which showed a significant drop in revenue and profit [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2.753 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1% [1] - The profit attributable to equity shareholders was 60.69 million RMB, down 16% year-on-year [1] Same-store Sales Data - The same-store sales growth rates for the company's main brands were as follows: - Taier: -19.0% - Song Hotpot: -20.1% - Jiumaojiu: -19.8% [1] Store Closures - In the first half of the year, the company closed 88 stores, primarily due to the expiration of lease agreements and underperformance of certain restaurants [1] Analyst Forecasts - Morgan Stanley has revised its earnings per share forecasts for Jiumaojiu for 2025 to 2027 down by 9%, 6%, and 10% respectively, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand year-to-date [1] - The target price has been adjusted from 2.3 HKD to 2.1 HKD, maintaining a "Reduce" rating [1] Market Impact - The company is expected to face significant selling pressure in the short term due to its removal from the Hang Seng Composite Index effective September 8, which will exclude it from the Hong Kong Stock Connect program [1] - As of August 22, southbound funds held 311.7 million shares, accounting for 22.3% of the total share capital and 44.4% of the free float [1]

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group's net profit for the first half of the year decreased by 24% to $2.5 billion, while the new business value increased by 14% to $2.8 billion, slightly below expectations [1] Financial Performance - AIA's new business value margin improved from 53.9% in the first half of last year to 57.7% this year [1] - The embedded value rose by 4% year-on-year to $70.9 billion after the company repurchased approximately $1.9 billion [1] Forecast Adjustments - The earnings forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been lowered by 8% to 11% due to increased net financial expenses related to insurance contracts [1] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 92.2 to HKD 90, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has downgraded the target price for Hang Seng Bank from HKD 102 to HKD 93.6, a decrease of 8%, citing headwinds in earnings and low non-performing loan coverage, while maintaining an underperform rating [1] Financial Performance - Hang Seng Bank reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching HKD 21 billion, and a 3.9% increase in pre-provision profit to HKD 13.4 billion, exceeding market expectations by 2% and 6% respectively [1] - However, net profit fell by 34.6% year-on-year to HKD 6.3 billion, missing market expectations by 22%, primarily due to a doubling of provisions [1] - The return on equity (ROE) decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 7.9% year-on-year [1] Capital and Dividends - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio increased by 3.6 percentage points to 21.3%, partly due to the implementation of Basel III regulations [1] - The bank announced an 8.3% year-on-year increase in dividends to HKD 2.6 per share, with the payout ratio rising by 30 percentage points to 78% [1] Share Buyback and Future Projections - Hang Seng Bank has announced a share buyback plan of up to HKD 3 billion, expected to be completed within six months [1] - Earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 10% to 18%, mainly due to rising credit costs, projected at 110 basis points, 85 basis points, and 75 basis points for the respective years [1] - The cost of equity has been lowered by 50 basis points to 8.5% due to a decline in the HIBOR, resulting in a decrease in the risk-free rate [1]

Core Insights - Bank of America Securities reported that Hang Seng Bank's revenue for the first half of the year increased by 2.7% year-on-year to HKD 21 billion, with pre-provision profit rising by 3.9% to HKD 13.4 billion, exceeding market expectations by 2% and 6% respectively [1][1][1] - However, net profit fell by 34.6% year-on-year to HKD 6.3 billion, missing market expectations by 22%, primarily due to a doubling of provisions [1][1][1] - The return on equity (ROE) decreased by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year to 7.9% [1][1][1] Financial Ratios and Capital - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio increased by 3.6 percentage points to 21.3% due in part to the implementation of Basel III regulations [1][1][1] - The interim dividend rose by 8.3% year-on-year to HKD 2.6 per share, with the payout ratio increasing by 30 percentage points to 78% [1][1][1] Share Buyback and Earnings Forecast - Hang Seng Bank announced a share buyback plan of up to HKD 3 billion, expected to be completed within six months [1][1][1] - Bank of America Securities lowered its earnings forecasts for Hang Seng Bank for 2025 to 2027 by 10% to 18%, mainly due to rising credit costs, projected at 110 basis points, 85 basis points, and 75 basis points for the respective years [1][1][1] - The cost of equity was reduced by 50 basis points to 8.5% due to a decline in HIBOR, which led to a decrease in the risk-free rate [1][1][1] Target Price Adjustment - The target price for Hang Seng Bank was lowered by 8% from HKD 102 to HKD 93.6, reflecting headwinds in earnings and a low non-performing loan coverage ratio, with a reiterated "underperform" rating [1][1][1]