国债期货日报 | 2025-08-26 美联储转鸽，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年7月金融数据显示，M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%，剪刀差收窄至3.2%，表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升，但信贷派生效率偏弱，居民与企业中长期贷款持续收缩，投资和消费 需求不足。社融存量同比仅9%，结构上主要依赖政府债券发行加杠杆托底，企业中长期融资需求依然低迷，大量 资金流向非银机构。利率品市场呈现政府债供给显著增加、机构被动增配的格局，后续走势取决于实体融资需求 修复及财政发行节奏。（4）央行：2025-08-25，央行以 ...

兜牢基层"三保"底线，财力保障至关重要。今年，中央财政进一步增加对地方转移支付，规模达到 103415亿元，同口径增长8.4%，其中均衡性转移支付、县级基本财力保障机制奖补资金分别安排27340 亿元、4795亿元，加强地方财力保障，支持地方做好"三保"工作。 资金安排有力度，预算下达就有速度。财政部预算司一级巡视员、政府债务研究和评估中心主任李 大伟介绍，今年上半年，中央对地方转移支付已下达9.29万亿元，占年初预算的89.8%，下达进度较上 年同期提高1.7个百分点；下达均衡性转移支付2.73万亿元，比上年增长7.5%。此外，指导督促地方做 好隐性债务置换工作，大幅减轻地方还本付息压力，腾出更多资源用于保民生、促发展。 "超10万亿元的中央转移支付资金，保持较高增幅，是做好'三保'的有力保障。同时，资金到位 快，有效确保基层财政平稳运行。"中国社会科学院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任、研究员何代欣 说。 今年预算报告强调，足额安排"三保"支出预算，加强预算执行管控和库款调度，优先保障"三保"支 出，特别是发放到个人的保基本民生和保工资支出；严禁无预算、超预算拨付资金，严格控制新增暂付 性款项；动态监测地方财 ...

资金安排有力度，预算下达就有速度。财政部预算司一级巡视员、政府债务研究和评估中心主任李大伟 介绍，今年上半年，中央对地方转移支付已下达9.29万亿元，占年初预算的89.8%，下达进度较上年同 期提高1.7个百分点；下达均衡性转移支付2.73万亿元，比上年增长7.5%。此外，指导督促地方做好隐 性债务置换工作，大幅减轻地方还本付息压力，腾出更多资源用于保民生、促发展。 "超10万亿元的中央转移支付资金，保持较高增幅，是做好'三保'的有力保障。同时，资金到位快，有 效确保基层财政平稳运行。"中国社会科学院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任、研究员何代欣说。 保基本民生、保工资、保运转，关系人民群众切身利益。7月底召开的中央政治局会议强调，宏观政策 要持续发力、适时加力。其中，要求"兜牢基层'三保'底线"。 增强地方财力 兜牢基层"三保"底线，财力保障至关重要。今年，中央财政进一步增加对地方转移支付，规模达到 103415亿元，同口径增长8.4%，其中均衡性转移支付、县级基本财力保障机制奖补资金分别安排27340 亿元、4795亿元，加强地方财力保障，支持地方做好"三保"工作。 今年以来，财政持续加大支出强度，优化支出结 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance announced an increase in funding for special education schools, raising the per-student subsidy from 6,000 yuan to 7,000 yuan, benefiting approximately 910,000 disabled students [1] - Recent policies indicate a shift in fiscal spending towards improving people's livelihoods, with more resources being allocated to education and employment support [1] - The Ministry of Finance aims to enhance the "people's livelihood" aspect of fiscal arrangements, ensuring a safety net for citizens and improving their sense of well-being [1] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, national public budget expenditure reached 14.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [2] - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, a more proactive fiscal policy is expected to maintain spending strength, positively impacting consumption and investment [2] - The issuance of new special bonds is anticipated to accelerate in the third quarter, aligning with the government's directive to expedite bond issuance [2]

Group 1 - Jiangsu province implemented a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on stable growth and improving people's livelihoods, which provided strong support for high-quality development [1] - In the first half of the year, Jiangsu's general public budget revenue reached 583.68 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1%, with tax revenue growing by 2.7% for nine consecutive months [1] - The industrial production growth led to a 7.4% increase in value-added tax, indicating strong internal economic momentum [1] Group 2 - Wuxi Tengma Precision Transmission Co., Ltd. reported a 44% increase in revenue this year, driven by rising orders for products used in humanoid and industrial robots [1] - Jiangsu Lianbo Precision Technology Co., Ltd. is in a rapid development phase, receiving a 1% fiscal subsidy that significantly supports its growth [2] - The provincial government allocated 10 billion yuan for social elderly service system construction and 31.38 billion yuan for employment subsidies, enhancing social welfare [2]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Fiscal Measures - The central government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy to enhance investment in people's livelihoods, promote consumption, and strengthen economic resilience [1][5] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts and timely adjustments to ensure effective policy implementation [1][9] Group 2: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, the national general public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][4] - Local general public budget revenue reached 669.77 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, with 27 out of 31 provinces reporting revenue growth [2][3] Group 3: Investment and Consumption Initiatives - The government is accelerating the issuance of special bonds to support consumption, with 690 billion yuan allocated for the third batch of consumer goods replacement subsidies [5][6] - The total sales of consumer goods under the replacement program reached 1.6 trillion yuan, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [6][7] Group 4: Social Welfare and Support - New policies for free preschool education and childcare subsidies are expected to benefit approximately 12 million children, with an additional 20 billion yuan in fiscal spending [8][9] - The central government has increased transfer payments to local governments by 8.4%, amounting to 1.03415 trillion yuan, to enhance local financial capacity and support basic livelihood guarantees [9][10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The implementation of more proactive fiscal policies is expected to continue into the second half of the year, with a focus on maintaining spending intensity to support consumption and investment [10][11] - The introduction of long-term special bonds and local special bonds is anticipated to further solidify the positive trend in high-quality economic development [10]

Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for sustained macroeconomic policies, including proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness [1] - The meeting highlights the importance of accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while maintaining ample liquidity in monetary policy to lower overall financing costs [1] - The focus for the second half of the year includes addressing key areas such as "bottleneck" technologies and promoting domestic demand growth under the "dual circulation" strategy [2][4] Group 2 - The meeting introduces the concept of "effective, orderly, and powerful" clearing of local financing platforms, with a timeline set for completion by June 2027 [2] - The number of local financing platforms has significantly decreased from over 15,000 to around 3,000, indicating a clear progress in the clearing process [2] - Future efforts will focus on increasing the speed and intensity of clearing, while ensuring that the process is orderly and does not lead to a resurgence of past issues [3] Group 3 - The economic growth in the first half of the year is attributed to several factors, including active fiscal policies, effective management of local government debt, and a series of industrial policies that have spurred productivity [4] - The narrowing gap in the urban-rural structure and between different regions is also noted, with significant investment opportunities in rural infrastructure and healthcare [4] - Financial support is needed in three key areas: market-oriented interest rates, loan securitization, and asset securitization, particularly in the real estate sector [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A series of policies have been introduced across various sectors, including macro - economic, fiscal, monetary, financial regulatory, real estate, and tariff policies, aiming to promote economic stability, adjust industry structures, and manage international trade relationships [1][2][3] - The focus is on implementing existing policies, with an emphasis on policy continuity and stability, while also promoting new initiatives to support emerging industries and address social issues such as population growth [11][12][13] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - Tone - A package of parenting subsidies and fertility support measures have been introduced. From 2025, a parenting subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year will be provided until the child is 3 years old. Free preschool education for the last year in public kindergartens will start in the fall of 2025, benefiting about 12 million people this fall and increasing government expenditure by about 20 billion yuan [11][16] - The Politburo meeting emphasized policy continuity and stability, mainly focusing on implementing existing fiscal and monetary policies. The "moderately loose" monetary policy tone continues [12] - The list of "two - major" construction projects has been fully released. The third batch of 69 billion yuan for consumer goods trade - in has been issued, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be issued in October. New policy - based financial instruments are to be established and launched soon [13] 2. Fiscal Policy - Use a more proactive fiscal policy, establish a debt - service reserve fund system to prevent risks, and accelerate the issuance and use of government bonds [17] - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be restored on the interest income of newly issued national, local, and financial bonds. Natural persons with a monthly quota of no more than 1 million yuan will enjoy a VAT exemption until the end of 2027 [18] - The Ministry of Finance reported six typical cases of local government implicit debt accountability, and some provinces have exited the high - risk area list [18][19] 3. Monetary Policy - Continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, coordinate treasury management and national debt issuance and redemption with the fiscal department [21] - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued a document to support the improvement of science and technology finance efficiency, and support the cultivation of emerging industries and forward - looking layout of future industries [22] - In August, the 3 - month term buy - back repurchase was operated earlier, and a second 6 - month operation may occur in the middle of the month, reflecting the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [23] 4. Financial Supervision - The maximum预定 interest rate of insurance products has been lowered. Ordinary insurance products decreased by 50BP to 2.0%, dividend - type insurance products decreased by 25BP to 1.75%, and universal insurance products decreased by 50BP to 1.0% [25] - The second batch of 12 new floating - rate funds have been approved, with the fee level linked to product returns [26] - Guotai Junan Asset Management initiated the absorption and merger of Haitong Asset Management [26] 5. Real Estate Policy - Coordinate to resolve real - estate enterprise bond default risks, improve real - estate financial macro - prudential management, and support the construction of a new real - estate development model [29] - Harbin increased the housing provident fund loan limit for "trade - in" home - buying families; Beijing strengthened support for multi - child families' housing; Kunming optimized the provident fund withdrawal policy [30] - Shanghai accelerated the "two - old and one - village" renovation, planning to start 25 village renovation projects this year. Some cities promoted the conversion of non - residential properties to rental housing [31][32] 6. Tariff Policy - The third round of Sino - US negotiations ended, and the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days, reducing export uncertainties [34] - Trump signed an executive order to set "reciprocal tariffs" for multiple countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, effective August 7 [35] - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors starting from August 1 and August 6 respectively [35]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance conducted the first re-issuance of the 2025 ultra-long special government bonds, with a total competitive bidding amount of 35 billion yuan and a fixed interest rate of 2.10% [1] - In July, three issues of ultra-long special government bonds were completed, totaling 206 billion yuan, making it the second-largest monthly issuance this year [1] - As of August 1, 2023, 7,960 billion yuan of ultra-long special government bonds have been issued, achieving 61% of the annual target of 13 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the project list for "two major" construction projects has been fully allocated, with a total of 800 billion yuan, and 6.9 billion yuan for the third batch of funds has been allocated [2] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds is expected to stimulate infrastructure investment and promote industrial chain expansion, thereby enhancing new productive forces [2] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds has effectively stimulated consumer willingness by providing direct subsidies, lowering costs for purchasing new products, and promoting consumption upgrades [3] Group 3 - The accelerated issuance of ultra-long special government bonds serves as a stabilizer for maintaining economic stability and acts as a catalyst for fostering long-term growth momentum [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Increase allocation of 2 - 3 - year AA - grade strong - qualification urban investment bonds, and 3 - 5Y perpetual bonds have riding opportunities [1][9] - The credit bond market this week shows the characteristics of "short - end adjustment and long - end pressure", and it is recommended to focus on medium - and short - duration coupons, pay attention to the regional differentiation of urban investment bonds and the liquidity premium opportunities of secondary and perpetual bonds, and be vigilant against the phased disturbance of the bond market by the recovery of the equity market [9] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Policy Dynamics and Market Hotspots - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will resume the collection of value - added tax, while existing bonds remain tax - free. This adjustment aims to enhance the benchmark function of the treasury bond yield curve in the medium and long term and support fiscal sustainability [4] - On July 30, 2025, the Politburo meeting emphasized implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds [5] Credit Bond Market Conditions Primary Issuance - From July 28 to August 1, the issuance and net financing scale of general credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The issuance scale of industrial bonds accounted for a relatively high proportion. The issuance amount of general credit bonds was 178.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 172.2 billion yuan; the net financing was 54.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 73.6 billion yuan [6] - The weighted issuance term of general credit bonds this week was 4.11 years, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 years; the weighted issuance interest rate was 1.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.19 pct [6] Secondary Trading - The turnover rate of general credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with significant declines in the turnover rates of general credit bonds with maturities of less than 1 year and 5 - 7 years [6] - The turnover rate of bank secondary and perpetual bonds decreased compared with last week. The turnover rates of AAA - and AA + grades decreased significantly, while the turnover rate of AA grade increased [6] Spread Tracking - As of August 1, the average yields of medium - and short - term notes, urban investment bonds, secondary capital bonds, and perpetual bonds with AAA ratings at various maturities were at historically low levels [7] - For urban investment bonds, the spreads of all ratings for the 1 - year term narrowed, those for the 3 - year term widened, and for the 5 - year term, except for a slight narrowing of 1.71BP for the AA variety, others widened. The spreads of the AA - grade for the 3Y and 5Y terms widened the most, by 5 - 6BP [7] - The spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds at all terms and grades narrowed this week. The 3Y, AAA - variety narrowed the most, by 4.28BP; the 1Y, AA - and AA varieties narrowed the least, by 1.98bp; the average narrowing amplitude of the spreads of the 5Y varieties was the largest, by 3.19BP [7] - In terms of regions, the spreads of urban investment bonds in 14 provinces widened slightly this week, with Liaoning and Qinghai having the largest widening amplitudes of 7 - 8BP [7] - For industrial bonds, the spreads of most industries widened slightly this week. The spread of AA + - grade industrial bonds in the construction and decoration industry widened the most, by 4.8bp [8]