Revenue and Fiscal Performance - In June, general public budget revenue was 1.89 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.3%, marking a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Non-tax revenue in June fell by 3.7% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.5 percentage points compared to May, primarily due to a high base from the previous year[3] - Tax revenue in June showed a slight year-on-year increase of 1.0%, recovering by 0.4 percentage points from May but still below April levels[3] Expenditure and Budget Deficit - June fiscal expenditure grew by only 0.4% year-on-year, a significant drop of 2.2 percentage points from May, continuing a downward trend for the second consecutive month[4] - Cumulative fiscal expenditure for the first half of the year increased by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth by 3.7 percentage points, indicating stable support for total consumption and investment demand[4] - The budget deficit for the first half of the year reached 2.57 trillion, an increase of 0.5 trillion year-on-year, raising the need for government bond financing[4] Government Fund and Debt Issuance - Government fund budget revenue in June rebounded sharply by 28.9% year-on-year, with land transfer fees contributing significantly to this increase, rising by 36.5 percentage points from May[5] - Government fund expenditure surged by 79.2% year-on-year in June, driven by accelerated issuance of special government bonds, with total expenditure growth for the first half of the year reaching 30%[5] - The overall budget deficit for government funds in the first half of the year reached 2.68 trillion, a substantial increase of 1.1 trillion year-on-year[5] Future Outlook and Risks - The fiscal revenue shortfall is expected to widen further, potentially triggering the issuance of special government bonds if three conditions are met, including low inflation and continued pressure on tax revenue[6] - The financing progress for government bonds has already reached 55.2% of the annual plan, significantly higher than the same period in 2024 and 2023[6] - Risks include the possibility of fiscal expansion being lower than expected, which could impact the effectiveness of consumption and investment stimulus measures[6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reported significant increases in new loans and social financing in June, indicating a positive impact of monetary policy on the real economy [2][3]. Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - The PBOC's Vice Governor Zou Lan emphasized that the effects of monetary policy take time to manifest, and the central bank will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic growth [3][7]. - In June, new RMB loans reached 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, while social financing amounted to 4.2 trillion yuan, up by 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. Financing Data Analysis - For the first half of the year, social financing increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, up by 4.74 trillion yuan year-on-year, with new RMB loans totaling 12.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 279.6 billion yuan year-on-year [2][4]. - Corporate loans showed a positive trend, with medium to long-term loans increasing by 40 billion yuan in June, ending a four-month decline, and short-term loans rising by 490 billion yuan [3][4]. Government Bond Financing - Government bond financing saw a significant increase, with net financing of 7.66 trillion yuan in June, up by 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year, driven by a peak in government bond issuance [2][5]. - In the second quarter, government bond issuance accelerated, with a total of 7.2 trillion yuan issued, including 4.6 trillion yuan in central government bonds and 2.6 trillion yuan in local government bonds [5][6]. Money Supply Growth - As of the end of June, M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 grew by 4.6%, up by 2.3 percentage points [2][6]. - The growth in M2 is attributed to increased loans and social financing, alongside stable fiscal deposits compared to the previous year [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the measures implemented since May will accelerate and positively impact the demand for funds in the real economy, with stable growth in infrastructure investment and a gradual recovery in private investment [7]. - The continuation of government bond financing and the expected increase in new special bond issuance are anticipated to support social financing in the coming months [7].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for the first half of 2025 indicates a reasonable growth in social financing and broad money supply (M2), supporting the real economy effectively. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the positive impact of monetary policy on the economy [1][4][9]. Financial Data Summary - As of June 2025, the social financing scale increased by 8.9% year-on-year, with a total of 430.22 trillion yuan, marking a 22.83 trillion yuan increase in the first half of the year, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the previous year [5][6]. - The broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, with a notable increase in government bond issuance contributing to this growth [4][6]. - The narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in corporate deposits [4][5]. Credit Growth and Structure - The total balance of RMB loans was 268.56 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, and new loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan [7][8]. - Corporate loans accounted for 89.5% of the new loans, with significant increases in both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans, indicating a stable funding source for the real economy [7][8]. - The increase in medium-to-long-term loans for enterprises in June ended a four-month decline, driven by various supportive financial measures [8]. Policy Implementation and Outlook - The PBOC's monetary policy has been characterized as moderately loose, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy [9][10]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points from the previous year, indicating a favorable borrowing environment [9][10]. - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with expectations for further interest rate cuts and increased government bond issuance in the second half of the year [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, China's economy has shown strong resilience and vitality despite complex challenges, significantly supported by the effective implementation of proactive fiscal policies [1] Fiscal Policy and Government Debt - The total new government debt in China for this year reached 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to 2024, indicating a notable rise in fiscal spending intensity [1][2] - The issuance of ultra-long special bonds is set to increase by 30% this year, with a planned issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan, which is 300 billion yuan more than the previous year [2] - As of June 23, 2023, 4.84 trillion yuan of ultra-long special bonds have been issued, achieving a progress rate of 37.2% [2] Special Bonds and Their Impact - The issuance of 5 trillion yuan in central financial institution capital injection special bonds has been completed, aimed at supporting state-owned commercial banks in enhancing their core tier one capital [3] - The rapid issuance of refinancing special bonds, aimed at replacing hidden debts, reached 17.715 trillion yuan by June 23, 2023, achieving 88.6% of the annual quota [3] - The acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to help local governments free up funds for development and construction, thereby enhancing growth momentum [3][4] New Special Bonds and Investment - The issuance of new special bonds has accelerated, with a total of 18.126 trillion yuan issued by June 23, 2023, representing a significant increase of 36.1% compared to the same period in 2024 [4] - Special bonds remain a key tool for government investment, playing a crucial role in stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [4][5] - The increase in special bonds is expected to create a positive cycle between government fiscal spending and microeconomic entities [5] Future Outlook - The issuance of government bonds is anticipated to maintain a rapid pace in the second half of the year, with expectations that new special bonds and ultra-long special bonds will be largely completed by the end of the third quarter [5][6] - The proactive fiscal policies are expected to continue to support investment and consumption, contributing to the achievement of annual economic growth targets [6][7]

Group 1 - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, and new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan [1] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating a strong financial growth relative to nominal economic growth [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting a significant acceleration in the growth of "liquid money," which is expected to boost market confidence and economic activities [1] Group 2 - The net financing of government bonds accelerated in May, reaching 1.46 trillion yuan, while local governments issued 443.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, marking a new high for the year [2] - Corporate bond net financing exceeded 140 billion yuan in May, with a downward trend in financing costs, as the average yield on 5-year AAA corporate bonds fell to 1.97% [2] - Despite a lower scale of new RMB loans compared to the same period last year, the RMB loan balance grew by 7.1% year-on-year, indicating stable loan growth [2] Group 3 - In May, nearly 530 billion yuan in new RMB loans were issued to enterprises, supported by a recent interest rate cut that boosted loan demand [3] - The residential sector saw an increase of nearly 54 billion yuan in new RMB loans, reflecting a recovery in the local real estate market [3] - The increased financing through government and corporate bonds is expected to substitute for bank loans, as local governments prefer using special bonds for project funding [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that there is a noticeable contraction in residents' risk appetite, as evidenced by the significant increase in RMB deposits in the first four months of this year compared to the same period last year [2] - The increase in household deposits this year is 7.83 trillion yuan, which is 1.1 trillion yuan more than last year, reflecting a decline in consumer confidence and spending enthusiasm [2] - The trend in household loans also shows a decrease in short-term loans, suggesting reduced demand in the real estate sector and a potential decline in small and micro-enterprise loans [2] Group 2 - Non-bank financial institutions saw a deposit increase of 1.88 trillion yuan this year, up from 1.23 trillion yuan last year, likely due to a recovering stock market and supportive monetary policies [3] - Non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 410.3 billion yuan this year, a significant turnaround from a decrease of 1.65 trillion yuan last year, indicating a potential improvement in corporate liquidity [3] - The increase in government bond financing has contributed significantly to the overall increase in deposits, accounting for over a quarter of the total social financing increment [4] Group 3 - The broad money supply (M2) reached 325.17 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, which is one of the highest increases in the past two years, primarily driven by government bond issuance rather than bank loans [5] - The future growth of M2 will be a reliable indicator of economic recovery, as it reflects the effectiveness of government financing in the real economy [5] - The ongoing contraction in residents' risk appetite and lack of clear signs of improved consumer confidence suggest that monitoring household financing will be crucial for understanding future consumption trends [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The financial data for February shows a significant increase in social financing, driven by government bond financing, particularly the accelerated issuance of local government special bonds [5][6]. - The total social financing in February amounted to 22,333 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7,374 billion yuan [5]. - The net financing from government bonds reached 16,967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10,956 billion yuan, indicating strong government support for financing [5][6]. - The report highlights a notable decline in household loans, with a reduction of 3,891 billion yuan in February, suggesting fluctuations in consumer demand and home-buying intentions [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - The social financing stock grew by 8.19% year-on-year in February, with a notable increase in local government special bond issuance [3][5]. - The total new RMB loans in February were 10,100 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,400 billion yuan year-on-year [3][4]. Loan Breakdown - Household loans decreased by 3,891 billion yuan, while corporate loans increased by 10,400 billion yuan, indicating a shift in lending dynamics [4][5]. - Short-term loans for enterprises showed a year-on-year increase, while medium to long-term loans decreased, reflecting varying demand across sectors [4][5]. Deposits and Savings - Total RMB deposits increased by 44,200 billion yuan in February, with a year-on-year increase of 34,600 billion yuan, indicating strong deposit growth [7]. - Fiscal deposits also saw a significant increase, suggesting a slower pace of fiscal expenditure [7].