Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,467.10 per troy ounce Thursday, up 0.1% from Wednesday’s closing price of $4,462.50. Presently, the price of gold has declined 0.89% after the market open. The ADP Employment Report, released Wednesday, showed the U.S. economy added 41,000 jobs in December. In November, 29,000 jobs were lost, but analysts had expected a larger rebound of 48,000. The U.S. Factory Orders report for October, also published Wednesday, missed expectations by 10 basis points with a decline of ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18810112501） 报告摘要 核心结论： 高频来看，美国初请和续请失业金人数均回落且好于预期；海外大宗商品价格下跌，美国汽油 零售价持续回落。关注即将公布的去年12月非农数据（1月9日）、去年12月ISM制造业PMI（1月5日）、 去年12月ISM服务业PMI（1月7日）。 （一）未来一周海外重要经济数据 元旦节当周，海外公布的经济数据较少。 1月5日-9日当周，重点关注 ： 美国：去年12月ISM制造业PMI（1月5日）、去年12月ISM服务业PMI（1月7日）、去年12月非农和1月密 歇根大学消费者信心指数（1月9日） 。 欧元区 ：去年12月CPI初值数据（1月7日）、去年11月PPI和失业率（1月8日）、去年11月零售销售环比 （1月9日）。 日本： 去年11月的劳工现金收入和家庭支出同比（1月8日）。 （二）周度经济活动指数 美国经济活动指数基本持平。2025年12月27日当周，美国WEI指数为2.23%（四周移动平均为2.26%），前 一周为2.21%（四周移动平均为2.27%）。 德国经济活动指 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：信达证券股份有限公司 核心结论：2025 年12 月下旬上证指数以"11 连阳"收官，主要受益于风险偏好修复（主题表现强）和中 证A500 为主的ETF 放量。元旦假期期间港股走强，背后的原因除了南下资金布局，也有人民币升值、 半导体产业催化密集等逻辑，或有利于元旦后A 股表现。我们认为春节前流动性环境大概率较好，市场 可能继续偏强，但1 月可能会有一些波动。 春季躁动如果只是季节性博弈，一般2 月的胜率赔率更高。市场在Q1较大波动的年份，均能观察到经济 数据较大拐点出现、或居民快速加杠杆或去杠杆现象。这一次春节前市场位置不低，19-21 年和24 年 Q4-25年Q1 的经验来看，交易量下降到低位后恢复初期通常是缓涨。这一次春季行情可能是缓步启 动，后续指数突破需要验证经济数据和居民热情能否继续加速。经济层面，一般来说12 月和1 月经济预 期大多平稳，但2-6 月通常容易出现较大波动。资金层面，当前保险、私募等机构资金仍有较强的补仓 动力，短期在演绎产业趋势强或者催化较多的主题，但主题行情的持续性需要验证实际的订单或业绩。 我 ...

Group 1 - Wall Street is showing signs of recovery as earnings reports and economic data are released following the holiday season [1] - Key earnings reports are expected from Acuity (AYI), Applied Digital (APLD), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), and Constellation Brands (STZ) [2] - A busy schedule of economic data is set for the week, including the ISM manufacturing index and auto sales on January 5 [2][3] Group 2 - The S&P U.S. services PMI for December is scheduled for January 6, along with a speech from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin [3] - January 7 will see the release of the ADP employment report, ISM services index, job openings, and U.S. factory orders [3] - January 8 will feature weekly jobs data, U.S. trade deficit, productivity, and consumer credit reports [3] - January 9 will be particularly busy with the U.S. employment report, including unemployment rate and hourly wages, as well as housing starts and consumer sentiment survey [4]

【周二（12月30日）重点关注财经事件和经济数据】 ①16:00 瑞士12月KOF经济领先指标； ②22:00 美 国10月FHFA房价指数月率、10月S&P/CS20座大城市未季调房价指数年率； ③22:45 美国12月芝加哥 PMI； ④次日02:00 美国至1月2日当周石油钻井总数； ⑤次日03:00 美联储公布货币政策会议纪要； ⑥ 次日05:30 美国至12月26日当周API原油库存。 ...

Group 1 - The week will be shortened due to the holiday, impacting the release schedule of economic data [1] - Key economic data to be released includes home prices, construction spending, and manufacturing [1] - The Federal Reserve minutes from the December meeting will also be published, providing insights into monetary policy [1]

市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为2960亿、400亿和401亿，净融资额为-473 亿、281亿和401亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模1356亿，净融资额250亿。非金信用债共计发 行规模2511亿，净融资额567亿。转债暂无新券发行。 二级市场回顾 债市情绪继续修复，中短端利率表现较好。主要影响因素包括：央行公开市场操作、买债降息预期、配 置盘机构行为。 流动性跟踪 央行重启14天逆回购，释放呵护跨年资金面信号。最终R001和R007分别较前周上行0.4BP和上行 0.7BP。 政策与基本面 11月经济数据再度低于预期，投资、消费表现偏弱。高频数据来看：生产端年末偏弱，需求端地产下行 出口回升，价格端食品分化、生产资料价格多数走强。 海外市场 美国11月非农数据仍显韧性但CPI超预期走弱。10年期美债收盘在4.16%，较前周下行3BP。 权益市场 上周A股指数大幅震荡，万得全A微跌0.15%，结构分化，商贸零售、基础化工等领涨，电子、电力设 备领跌。市场缺乏主线大板块机会，成交缩量，上周日均成交量1.76万亿，周度日均成交量减少1925.21 亿。截至 ...

美联储高层近期表态强调，央行正处于观察期，需要更多经济数据来确认政策方向。最新公布的美联储 官员利率预测点阵图显示，政策制定者对2026年的利率预期中值仍处于相对高位，暗示降息节奏可能比 部分投资者预想的更慢。 利率期货市场数据也印证了这一变化：交易员对美联储在下次会议上维持利率不变的预期概率已较前一 周上升，降息概率则相应下调，这为美元提供了短期支撑。 市场视线也投向可能影响美联储未来决策结构的其他因素。有关美联储领导层人选的远期讨论，以及现 任理事公开表达的偏向宽松的政策立场，虽属远期变量，但亦被部分投资者纳入对长期利率环境的评估 中，间接影响汇率市场情绪。 英镑与美元力量相对均衡 英镑受制于待验证的经济数据和相对固化的加息预期，上行空间受限。美元则得益于市场对"利率维持 高位"预期的强化，以及短期政策调整概率的下降。双方角力使得汇率进入整理阶段。 英镑兑美元在连续三个交易日下跌后，于周一亚洲时段在1.3390附近暂获支撑。 市场正等待英国第三季度GDP数据，以评估英国经济现状。 英镑走势受到货币政策预期约束，市场当前普遍认为英国央行可能将首次降息推迟至2026年6月。与此 同时，部分市场定价工具显示，对 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and its dynamics in the context of the broader economic environment in China for 2025 and expectations for 2026 [1][5][6]. Economic Data and Market Impact - Economic data for the second half of 2025 shows a decline, with nominal GDP growth dropping to 3.7% in Q3 from 4.6% in Q1. Retail sales growth in November was only 1.3%, the lowest of the year, and investment growth was negative at -2.6%, with real estate investment down 16% [1][3][4]. - The central bank has maintained a strong policy stance without lowering interest rates, which has influenced the bond market's rhythm. Fiscal spending growth is also negative, indicating a continuation of the current policy environment into 2026 [5][6]. Bond Market Performance - The bond market in 2025 has shown a volatile trend, with short to medium-term bonds performing better than long-term bonds. The 30-year government bonds have been particularly weak, reflecting a bear market [2][3]. - The yield on 30-year government bonds is expected to drop below 2%, with current yields being higher than historical averages due to changes in economic growth and interest rate environments [9][14]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - There is a general optimism for the stock market in 2026, contrasting with the bearish outlook from the previous year. However, discrepancies between expectations and actual market conditions need to be monitored [6][12]. - The bond market is expected to experience a slight upward trend, with limited decreases in interest rates anticipated [6][16]. Institutional Behavior and Strategies - Significant selling pressure from institutional investors has been noted, with net selling of long-term bonds exceeding 170 billion RMB, impacting the yields on 30-year government bonds [11]. - Investment strategies have shifted, with many institutions adopting a barbell strategy, holding both short-term and long-term bonds to mitigate risks [2][13]. Key Factors to Monitor - Future interest rate adjustments by the central bank, particularly the potential for a rate cut in March 2026, will be crucial for the bond market [12]. - The impact of regulatory changes on the insurance sector, particularly regarding asset-liability management, is expected to be positive for long-term bonds [18]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently influenced by a combination of weak economic data, institutional selling, and a cautious outlook on interest rates. Investors are advised to remain flexible and consider short-term trading opportunities while monitoring macroeconomic indicators and policy changes [14][16].

Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - The cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants in December decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, compared to a 7.2% decline in November, indicating a continuation of weak demand in both power and non-power sectors [1][6] - The industrial operating rates showed mixed results, with the operating rate of steel blast furnaces down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 0.1 percentage points [7][8] - Key steel mills reported a 1.4% month-on-month decline in crude steel production, with a 4.5% year-on-year decrease, while rebar production fell by 10.5% month-on-month and 16.2% year-on-year [9] Group 2: Construction and Material Supply - The funding availability rate for construction sites improved marginally, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in funding for both non-residential and residential construction [11] - The asphalt production rate remained stable month-on-month but decreased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating fluctuations in construction activity [11][12] - The national cement dispatch rate recorded a 30.09% rate, down 3.1 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting a slowdown in construction material supply [12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales Trends - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 1.4% year-on-year, while domestic flight operations rose by 1.3%, suggesting a slight recovery in consumer mobility [3][12] - Real estate sales remained weak, with a 32.9% year-on-year decline in average daily transactions of commercial housing in major cities during the first half of December [16] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles saw a significant drop of 32% year-on-year, with wholesale sales down by 40%, indicating a contraction in consumer spending in the automotive sector [17] Group 4: Manufacturing and Export Activity - The container throughput at domestic ports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, although this growth rate was lower than the 10.2% recorded in November, reflecting ongoing resilience in trade [21] - The Business Price Index (BPI) showed signs of recovery, with a 0.8% increase compared to the end of November, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [24] - The production of household appliances continued to decline, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines dropping significantly, reflecting reduced consumer demand [18][19]