2025 年 07 月 11 日 工业硅：关注仓单注册情况 多晶硅：政策扰动，盘面波动放大 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 8,470 | 330 | 460 | 1,055 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 1,468,586 | 315,140 | 272,044 | 1,028,365 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 381,237 | -17,792 | 397 | 225,610 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2508收盘价（元/吨） | 41,345 | 2,075 | 6,295 | - | | | | PS2508成交量（手） | 1,014,567 | 220,103 | 532,504 | - | | | | PS2508持仓量（手） | 98,601 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report offers short - term trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. These forecasts are influenced by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic policies [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Facing disturbances from tariff issues, with a trend strength of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][5][9]. - **Silver**: In a high - level oscillation, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][5][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously increasing, putting pressure on prices. The trend strength is 0, showing a neutral outlook [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Operating within a range, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][14]. - **Lead**: Showing a mid - term upward trend, with a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][19][23]. - **Aluminum**: The price center is moving up. Aluminum has a trend strength of 0, alumina has a trend strength of 1, and casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24][26]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between macro and fundamental factors, resulting in an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][27][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and macro - expectations, leading to an oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the number of warehouse receipts is relatively small. The oscillating pattern may continue, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][37][40]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying market fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, resulting in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Due to sector sentiment resonance, they are in a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][44][48]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Cost expectations may rise, leading to a relatively strong oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][50][53]. - **Coke**: Oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][55][58]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, oscillating with an upward bias, with a trend strength of 1, suggesting a bullish outlook [2][56][58]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the market is stabilizing with oscillations, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][60][63]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamental upside is limited [2][62]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is insufficient speculation on US soybean weather, lacking upward drivers [2][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Waiting for the USDA report, with a rebound and oscillation trend [2][64]. - **Soybean**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is oscillating [2][64]. - **Corn**: Undergoing oscillating adjustments [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of tight old - crop inventory continues to support futures prices [2][68]. - **Egg**: As the peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the expected difference [2][70]. - **Live Pig**: Spot sentiment is weakening, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices [2][71]. - **Peanut**: There is support at the lower level [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and renewable energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Energy Administration have jointly issued a notice to promote the construction of national-level zero-carbon parks, encouraging local departments to recommend suitable parks for this initiative [3] - The energy-saving wind power company has approved an investment of 2.09 billion RMB to construct a 500MW green power supply project in Inner Mongolia, which is expected to connect to the grid by the end of December 2026 [4] - The national encouragement of zero-carbon parks and green electricity direct connection projects will benefit the demand for distribution equipment at the park level and incremental distribution network equipment, particularly for DC technology [1][3] Summary by Sections National-Level Zero-Carbon Park Initiative - The notice requires local departments to recommend up to two parks for national-level zero-carbon park construction by August 22 [3] - It emphasizes the development and utilization of renewable energy in and around the parks, supporting the matching of parks with nearby non-fossil energy generation resources [3] Investment Projects - The energy-saving wind power project will install 50 wind turbines with a capacity of 10MW each and includes the construction of a 220kV booster substation and a 75MW/300MWh energy storage system [4] - The generated electricity will be consumed by two ferroalloy companies in the Beijing-Mongolia cooperation industrial park [4] Company Recommendations - Investment suggestions include companies such as Teruid and Sifang Co., with projected net profits for 2024 at 9.2 billion RMB and 7.2 billion RMB respectively [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power equipment industry [4] Core Insights - The dual carbon strategy emphasizes the coexistence of highly clean power generation and highly electrified power consumption, with the grid serving as a crucial link between the two [4][7] - The development of ultra-high voltage (UHV) technology is essential for achieving carbon neutrality, but progress has been slower than expected [4][8] - The distribution network is critical for renewable energy consumption, yet investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period has fallen short of expectations [4][39] Summary by Sections Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) - UHV is a key component of the dual carbon strategy, with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan for over 30,000 kilometers of lines and a capacity of 340 million kilovolt-amperes [8] - The actual progress of UHV projects has been below expectations, with only eight projects likely to be completed by 2025 [16][18] - The shift towards flexible direct current technology is noted, as it allows for higher proportions of renewable energy to be transmitted [22][24] Distribution Network - The distribution network's role has evolved significantly post-dual carbon strategy, requiring upgrades to accommodate distributed energy resources [39][40] - Despite a consensus on the need for increased investment in the distribution network, actual investment levels have been lower than anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan [47] - The rapid growth of distributed solar power has led to challenges in the capacity of the distribution network, necessitating further enhancements [50]

6月11日-13日，第十八届（2025）国际太阳能光伏与智慧能源（上海）大会暨展览会（SNEC PV+ 2025）于在国家会展中心（上海）举行。开展首日，TCL 中环携210单晶硅棒及系列硅片产品、全新一代BC技术组件产品及多款高效率、高功率BC及TOPCon技术组件产品亮相，并于展会期间推出轻质组件"概念 产品"及防积灰系列新品。 电池组件板块，TCL中环展出的BC技术组件产品最大功率高达680W，最高效率高达25.2%，TOPCon技术组件产品最大功率高达750W，最高效率高达 24.14%；此外，TCL中环于SNEC现场联合蓝思科技共同推出轻质组件"概念产品"。2024年下半年以来，TCL中环持续推进组件业务在技术、制造、产品、 品牌、市场等多个环节升级，当前已构建起涵盖BC、TOPCon、半片、叠瓦等多种技术路线的多元化布局，为客户提供更高效、更可靠、更具价值的全场景 应用解决方案。 随着海外市场准入的标准提高，ESG能力已从企业的"成本项"转变为关键的竞争优势和战略资产。长期以来，TCL中环始终秉持"为人类奉献蓝天和白云"的 绿色生态理念，推动可持续发展水平全面提升，以实际行动引领全球绿色能源产业的 ...

参与绿电交易成为盘活绿色资产、拓宽收益渠道，实现市场化转型的核心突破口，更是垃圾焚烧发电行 业的环境价值获得市场真金白银认可的关键里程碑。绿电交易正成长为支撑垃圾焚烧行业可持续发展的 又一条"生命线"。 从属性上来看，垃圾焚烧设施是城镇环境基础设施，临近负荷中心又十分稳定，是"隔墙售电"的理想电 源，更契合绿电直联新场景。所以，两年前，垃圾焚烧行业协会就呼吁，隔墙售电应该优先在垃圾焚烧 发电行业推广。 垃圾焚烧发电的独特优势恰与绿电直连高度契合。从体量上来看，截至2023年年底，全国垃圾焚烧发电 装机容量已达2577万千瓦，年发电量约1394亿千瓦时；从稳定性上来看，垃圾焚烧发电可以实现24小时 连续稳定运行；从体量规模上来看，垃圾焚烧发电机组往往为20MW—50MW的适中单体规模，兼具稳 定基荷支撑与低调峰冲击特性，成为市场化交易的优质主体。 政策层面已经提供了关键支持。2023年7月，国家发改委、财政部、国家能源局联合印发《关于做好可 再生能源绿色电力证书全覆盖工作 促进可再生能源电力消费的通知》，明确垃圾焚烧绿电的绿色价值 变现凭证。 5月21日，国家发改委、国家能源局印发《关于有序推动绿电直连发展有关 ...

随着国家发改委、国家能源局《关于有序推动绿电直连发展有关事项的通知》（以下简 称《通知》）的发布，绿电直连作为推动清洁能源高效利用、优化电力资源配置的重要举 措，正逐步进入落地实施阶段。然而，目前绿电直连呈现出面上热度较高、实际推进缓慢的 态势。尽管各方都在积极探讨、表态支持，且有较多企业表达参与意愿，但真正付诸实践、 实质性推进的项目并不多。 整体来看，目前业内对于绿电直连仍处于观望阶段，许多企业和机构对政策的具体执行 细节、操作路径以及潜在风险缺乏清晰认知，导致实际参与度不高。在业内人士看来，电价 不仅是绿电直连项目的核心经济指标，更是各方利益博弈的焦点。在政策实施初期，电价机 制的明确性、市场化路径的畅通性以及电网企业的支持，成为影响绿电直连能否真正落地的 关键因素。 市场参与热情有待激发 多位业内人士对《中国能源报》记者直言，"目前，参与绿电直连项目的主体数量并未 达到预期""部分企业对电价机制仍持观望态度""《通知》发布后，部分企业对配套电价政策 的预期有所下调，在实际操作中可能难以达到预期的优惠水平"……因此，尽管政策方向明 确，但市场参与积极性仍需进一步激发。 中的占比或超70%。"北京市鑫诺律 ...

Core Viewpoint - Inner Mongolia has become the first province in China to respond to the national green electricity direct connection policy, optimizing its integrated source-grid-load-storage project application requirements, which serves as a significant reference for other provinces [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Development - The Inner Mongolia Energy Bureau has been proactive in energy reform, issuing guidelines and implementation details for integrated source-grid-load-storage projects since 2021, with the latest revision in November 2023 [2][3]. - The revised guidelines clarify project definitions, application subjects, new load requirements, energy storage configurations, and fee collection standards [3][4]. Group 2: Project Requirements - New load projects are allowed to include green replacement projects and must have an annual electricity consumption of at least 300 million kWh [3]. - Energy storage must be configured at a minimum of 15% of the new energy scale (4 hours), or possess equivalent peak regulation capabilities [3]. - The approval process for projects follows a "mature one, approve one" principle, with 28 integrated projects approved to date, totaling 11.76 million kW of new energy capacity [3][4]. Group 3: Optimizations in Notification - The notification considers Inner Mongolia's wind and solar resource advantages and allows for adjustments in project investment subject requirements, storage scale, and approval processes [4][5]. - The requirement for new load annual electricity consumption has been adjusted to a minimum of 50,000 kW for centralized new energy projects, while the self-consumption ratio for new energy is set at no less than 90% [5][6]. Group 4: Future Developments - The notification also promotes the development of green power supply in industrial parks and integrated wind-solar-hydrogen projects, with over 200 similar projects already applied for [6]. - Future green electricity direct connection projects are expected to play a crucial role in virtual power plants, integrating self-supply, purchasing from power plants, and market trading [6].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "green electricity direct supply + market trading + green certificate certification" mechanism is a significant step towards implementing the "dual carbon" strategy and will fundamentally reshape energy circulation and consumption patterns [1] Group 1: Green Electricity Direct Connection - Green electricity direct connection is a crucial component of the new power system, enabling direct coupling between renewable energy generation and end-users through restructured physical electricity delivery paths [2] - The core features of green electricity direct connection include traceability, specificity, and measurability, ensuring clear data recording throughout the lifecycle of electricity [2] - Projects can be categorized into grid-connected and off-grid types, each with distinct technical, economic, and stability characteristics [2] Group 2: Scheduling and Market Mechanisms - The core of the green electricity direct connection model is to achieve direct connections between renewable energy and users, optimizing energy allocation efficiency and addressing system stability issues [3] - The notification emphasizes the need for diverse investment entities to participate in green electricity direct connection projects, breaking the monopoly of traditional grid companies and enhancing market competitiveness [4] - Projects must establish long-term purchase agreements to clarify responsibilities and avoid project delays due to uneven profit distribution [4] Group 3: Regional Policy Adaptation - The notification allows provincial energy authorities to set specific rules based on local conditions, reflecting respect for regional differences and enhancing system resilience [6] - Projects must ensure internal resources are observable, measurable, adjustable, and controllable, promoting private capital participation and ensuring project feasibility [7] Group 4: Responsibilities and Support Systems - The essence of green electricity direct connection is to shift the responsibility of green electricity consumption from the grid to the energy users, encouraging enterprises to take on social responsibilities and economic costs [8] - Projects are required to pay compliance fees while receiving policy support, with green certificate trading providing economic incentives for carbon reduction [8] - The mechanism of "physical tracing + green certificate certification" offers internationally recognized proof of green energy use, enhancing China's position in global green trade [9] Group 5: Future Implications - The introduction of the green electricity direct connection model marks a transition in China's renewable energy development from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" [9] - This model is expected to become a core support for building a new power system and achieving the "dual carbon" goals as policies are refined and technologies advance [9]

零碳园区不是"万能钥匙" 零碳园区是指在一个产业园区内直接或间接产生的二氧化碳排放总量，通过清洁技术支持、碳回收技 术、能源存储交换等方式在一定周期内全部予以抵消，从而实现二氧化碳零排放的现代化产业园区。 减碳的工具和方式多种多样，为何零碳园区被认为是重要抓手而受到广泛关注？ 近期在北京举行的"构建零碳园区：从顶层设计到落地实践"专题研讨会上，绿色创新发展研究院分析师 刘晶宁介绍，这主要是因为它具有经济贡献大和碳排放量占比大的双重属性。"目前全国有超过7.7万个 产业园区，广东省的园区密度最高，浙江、山东紧随其后。其中，工业园区约占三成。清华大学的研究 表明，这些工业园区贡献了全国50%以上的工业产值，以及31%左右的碳排放。" 从现阶段情况来看，零碳技术的确能在一定程度上助力工业减碳的转型问题，但并不是适用于所有主体 和场景的"万能钥匙"。 今年零碳园区迎来布局热潮，从政策引导到企业宣传，消息层出不穷。不过，距离这些项目真正落地还 有诸多难题需要应对。 张捷（化名）是国内某新能源企业从事零碳业务服务的负责人，从年初起，他接受到来自业内外的咨询 比以往多出数倍，其中零碳园区是最常被提及的一个概念。究其原因，政 ...