Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between volatility and risk, emphasizing that understanding volatility is crucial for becoming an excellent investor, as it is a tangible risk rather than a mere psychological issue [8][40]. Academic Perspective: Volatility = Risk - The Sharpe Ratio is highlighted as a key metric for evaluating fund performance, indicating that returns should be assessed in relation to the risks taken [10]. - Traditional financial theories define risk as the uncertainty of future returns, represented by price volatility [11]. - Historical examples illustrate that even if an investor believes in a company's future recovery, immediate financial needs can force them to sell at a loss due to volatility [12]. - The article argues that higher volatility necessitates higher expected returns as compensation, exemplified by the comparison of different funds and their respective drawdowns during market adjustments [14][15]. Practical Perspective: Volatility ≠ Risk - Warren Buffett's perspective is presented, asserting that volatility does not equate to risk; instead, the true risk is the permanent loss of capital [18][21]. - Buffett emphasizes that good companies can have high volatility without being poor investments, while low volatility can accompany poor business performance [19]. - The article notes that Buffett's views on volatility have evolved, initially seeing it as a source of profit but later recognizing it as a neutral concept [23][26]. Trading Perspective: Volatility = Return - The article discusses how risk-averse investors dislike volatility, while risk-seeking investors view it as an opportunity for returns [28][30]. - It explains that volatility can be treated as a tradable commodity, with strategies like options trading reflecting this dynamic [31][32]. - The article highlights that different trading strategies exist based on attitudes towards volatility, such as trend trading and grid trading, each with its own risk and return profiles [36][38]. Conclusion - The article concludes that volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, prompting investors to distinguish between what can be controlled and what cannot, as well as what can be judged and what cannot [44].

Core Viewpoint - Volatility is not risk itself; the true risk is "permanent loss." However, volatility manifests as risk, triggering investor fear and behavioral biases, turning risk into reality and providing opportunities for counterparties to profit [4][38]. Group 1: Perspectives on Volatility - Three views on volatility have emerged: 1. Risk-averse investors see volatility as risk that needs to be avoided [5]. 2. Risk-seeking investors view volatility as a source of returns that should be embraced [6]. 3. Value investors consider volatility to be neutral, with investment risk stemming solely from operational risks leading to permanent losses [7][39]. Group 2: Academic Perspective - The Sharpe Ratio, a key metric for assessing fund performance, emphasizes that returns should be evaluated against the risks taken to achieve them [17]. - Traditional financial theories, such as Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory, define risk as the uncertainty of future returns, represented by price volatility [18]. - Historical price fluctuations can create a false sense of security, as investors may not recognize the potential for future losses during periods of volatility [19][20]. Group 3: Practical Perspective - Warren Buffett has explicitly rejected the notion that volatility equates to risk, emphasizing that the most significant risk is the permanent loss of capital [24][26]. - Buffett's investment philosophy focuses on the intrinsic value of companies, viewing short-term volatility as mere "noise" that does not pose a substantial threat unless forced to sell at a loss [27]. Group 4: Trading Perspective - The view that "volatility equals returns" stems from the fact that many investors dislike uncertainty and volatility, particularly large funds [29]. - High volatility assets often trade at a discount, reflecting the risk aversion of investors, while the actual risk remains objectively present [30][31]. - Volatility can be treated as a tradable commodity, with strategies like options trading reflecting the relationship between volatility and risk [32][33]. Group 5: Nature of Volatility - Volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, reminding investors of the constant changes and the need to distinguish between what can and cannot be controlled [42].

Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has surpassed 20 billion yuan in scale, marking it as a significant product alongside other major bond ETFs from the company [1] - The ETF's core value lies in its approximately 20-year duration, which provides leverage benefits and makes it a rare product in the current market [2][4] - The ETF offers three main investment values: allocation value, trading value, and hedging value, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [2][6] Allocation Value - In a downward interest rate trend, the long duration of the 30-year government bond ETF provides strong allocation value, with an average annualized return of 6.69% for a three-year holding period since 2012, compared to 5.09% for 7-10 year government bonds [2][4] Trading Value - The ETF has a higher trading value due to its longer duration and greater volatility compared to 7-10 year government bonds, with a modified duration of 19.65 years versus 7.50 years for the latter [6] - Historical data shows that during low volatility phases, the trading value of the 30-year government bond ETF becomes more pronounced [6] Hedging Value - The long duration of the ETF allows it to hedge against equity market fluctuations, with a significant occurrence of the "stock-bond seesaw" effect noted in 61.31% of the months analyzed since 2013 [6] - The ETF supports various trading strategies, including arbitrage and grid strategies, enhancing its appeal in a volatile market [6][7] Trading Mechanism - The ETF can be traded conveniently through both primary and secondary markets, with options for physical or cash subscriptions [7] - The trading efficiency is comparable to stocks, allowing for T+0 transactions, which lowers the entry barrier for investors [7] Future Outlook - Bosera aims to continue innovating and expanding its product offerings in the index product space, focusing on providing diverse investment options for investors [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the role of margin financing in driving the current bull market, highlighting the industries that have attracted the most margin funds and their performance compared to the Shanghai Composite Index. Group 1: Margin Financing Dynamics - Margin financing has become a core driver of the current bull market, with high-risk speculative funds ignoring valuations and fundamentals, focusing solely on price trends [1][2]. - A cycle is created where industries with increased margin financing see price rises, leading to further investments and continued price increases, particularly in the A-share market without short-selling mechanisms [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Current Trends - In the 2015 bull market, the top five industries by margin financing were: - Securities: 174.4 billion - Banking: 145.5 billion - Real Estate: 107.2 billion - Construction: 77.3 billion - Non-ferrous Metals: 75.7 billion - These five industries accounted for 26% of the total margin financing of 2.2 trillion [2]. - As of now, the margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has reached 2.2123 trillion, nearing the historical peak of 2.2664 trillion from June 2015 [3]. Group 3: Industry Performance Comparison - From June 2013 to June 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 158%, while the following industries outperformed: - Securities Index: 258% - Banking Index: 109% - Real Estate Index: 246% - Construction Index: 290% - Non-ferrous Metals Index: 187% [5]. - In the current bull market, the top five industries by margin financing are: - Securities: 131.8 billion - Electronic Components: 121.2 billion - Integrated Circuits: 107.8 billion - Application Software: 83.3 billion - Industrial Machinery: 82.9 billion [8][9]. Group 4: Valuation and Future Outlook - The current bull market has shifted focus from traditional sectors like banking and real estate to high-growth sectors such as communication, chips, AI, and robotics, which are now attracting margin financing [7][13]. - Valuations for these sectors are high, with PE ratios indicating that they are expensive: - Communication ETF: 48x - Integrated Circuit ETF: 197x - AI ETF: 230x - Robotics ETF: 81x [14][19][21]. - The article suggests that while these sectors are currently expensive, the strategy should focus on price trends rather than valuations for future investments [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the different strategies and mindsets that successful investors adopt during a bull market, emphasizing the importance of early belief and disciplined execution of investment strategies to achieve profitability. Group 1: Bull Market Phases - A bull market typically has five phases, starting from a prevailing bear market mindset to a stage where most people are unaware of the market's end [5][6][7][9]. - Investors who profit during a bull market often do so by believing in the market early and making strategic investments in the initial phases [10]. Group 2: Successful Investor Types - The first type of successful investor is one who believes early, invests early, and remains steadfast despite market fluctuations [10]. - The second type relies on a disciplined strategy without attempting to predict market movements, focusing on value investing, grid strategies, or trend investing [12][13][14][16]. - The third type utilizes asset allocation as a passive strategy, which is easier for most ordinary investors to understand and implement [18]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - Asset allocation does not require investors to predict market trends, as it diversifies investments across various asset classes, including global stocks and bonds [19]. - The article provides historical performance data of different asset classes over the years, indicating that asset allocation can yield returns regardless of market conditions [20]. - The dynamic rebalancing strategy in asset allocation allows investors to maintain their desired asset ratios, thus mitigating anxiety over market timing [21][22]. Group 4: Limitations and Benefits of Asset Allocation - While asset allocation may not lead to rapid wealth accumulation, it offers a stable growth trajectory, allowing investors to benefit from various market phases [23]. - The article mentions a specific asset allocation strategy with a 6:3:1 ratio of stocks to bonds to commodities, which has yielded a 10%+ return as of August 11 [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that broker ETFs are suitable for grid trading strategies but not for long-term holding, highlighting their performance metrics and market behavior over time [1][13]. Group 1: Broker ETF Performance - The broker ETF was established on September 28, 2017, with a cumulative return of 61.62% and an absolute return of 108.94%, while the corresponding ETF fund increased by only 10.46% during the same period [1]. - Historical data shows that during the 2015 bull market, the broker index outperformed the CSI 300 index significantly in the first wave of the market, with gains of 114% compared to 44% [7]. - In the second wave of the 2015 bull market, the broker index lagged behind the CSI 300 index, gaining only 27% versus 59%, despite the broker index reaching historical highs [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Broker Performance - The performance of brokers is closely tied to market trading volume; increased trading volume leads to higher commissions and improved broker performance [4]. - Short-term correlations exist between A-share market increases and trading volume, but long-term price increases depend more on company performance and economic strength rather than speculative trading [4]. - The broker index in 2021 was approximately 50% lower than its peak in 2015, despite the CSI 300 index reaching new highs, primarily due to trading volume not exceeding 2015 levels [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategy - The potential for further increases in trading volume will determine the future performance of brokers; if trading volume can expand, brokers may have opportunities for new highs [8]. - The article suggests that brokers are not suitable for long-term holding, as evidenced by the broker ETF's modest increase of only 10.46% since its inception [13]. - The average annualized price movement of the broker ETF is around 4%, indicating a relatively stable price range over the past decade [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and strategies of ETF and index products, highlighting their market trends and investment opportunities [4]. Group 1: ETF and Index Products Performance - The report provides insights into the recent performance of various ETF and index products, indicating a significant increase in trading volume and investor interest [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of grid strategies in optimizing investment returns, particularly in volatile market conditions [4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The analysis identifies key market trends affecting ETF and index products, including shifts in investor sentiment and regulatory changes [4]. - It notes that the overall market environment remains challenging, yet presents unique opportunities for strategic investments [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and strategies of ETF and index products, highlighting their market trends and investment opportunities [4]. Group 1: ETF and Index Products Performance - The report provides insights into the recent performance of various ETF and index products, indicating a significant increase in trading volumes and investor interest [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of grid strategies in optimizing investment returns, particularly in volatile market conditions [4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The analysis identifies key market trends affecting ETF and index products, including shifts in investor sentiment and regulatory changes [4]. - It notes that the overall market environment remains challenging, yet presents unique opportunities for strategic investments [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of taking profits in investment, highlighting that without realizing gains, profits are not truly earned [3][4] - The article discusses the challenges of profit-taking, particularly in value investing, where investors struggle to determine when to sell, often leading to poor decision-making [5][8] - It introduces the concept of asset allocation as a solution to the difficulties of profit-taking, suggesting that diversifying investments across multiple asset classes can simplify decision-making [9][10] Group 2 - The article explains dynamic rebalancing as a strategy that allows investors to manage their portfolios without needing to make complex decisions about individual asset prices [10][12] - It outlines the benefits of dynamic rebalancing, stating that it can generate positive returns even in sideways markets by capturing price fluctuations between different assets [13] - The article provides methods for executing dynamic rebalancing, including time-based and price-based approaches, to maintain the desired asset allocation [16][18][20] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of effective diversification, recommending a mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities to enhance the chances of successful rebalancing [14] - It suggests that investors can utilize tools like the "three-part method" for asset allocation, which helps in assessing the correlation between different assets [14][24] - The article concludes by promoting the use of automated reminders and services to assist investors in maintaining their asset allocation strategy [20][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and strategies of ETF and index products, highlighting their market trends and investment opportunities [4]. Group 1: ETF and Index Products Performance - The report provides insights into the recent performance of various ETF and index products, indicating a significant increase in trading volumes and investor interest [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of grid strategies in optimizing investment returns, particularly in volatile market conditions [4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The analysis identifies key market trends affecting ETF and index products, including shifts in investor sentiment and regulatory changes [4]. - It notes that the overall market environment remains challenging, yet presents unique opportunities for strategic investments [4].