注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 相关机构表示，短期看，非农、CPI等关键经济数据延迟发布，将无法对美联储官员的货币政策作出有 效指引，但政府停摆对经济潜在的影响，反而强化市场对降息的预期，截至10月8日，CME美联储观察 显示10月降息概率接近95%。长期看，联邦政府持续停摆、政治僵局加剧、财政纪律弱化，都在逐步侵 蚀美元作为全球储备货币的基础。 黄金股票ETF（517400）跟踪的是SSH黄金股票指数（931238），该指数从市场中选取涉及黄金采掘、 冶炼及销售等业务的50只较大市值上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映黄金产业链相关企业证券的整体 表现。该指数具有行业集中度高、风格偏向价值投资的特点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points is seen as appropriate, with potential for further cuts by the end of the year, totaling 75 basis points [2][5]. Rate Cuts and Future Projections - The Fed's strategy includes monitoring inflation and job numbers, allowing for flexibility in future rate adjustments [3][6]. - Aiming for a total of 100 basis points in cuts within the next year, with a possibility of reaching neutral territory by the end of the first quarter [5]. Inflation Concerns - Current inflation remains in the high 2% range, and the Fed seeks assurance that it will trend down to the target of 2% [6][19]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is considered limited, as the foreign goods portion in the U.S. consumption basket is relatively small [8]. Market Confidence and Interest Rates - The credibility of the Fed is crucial for maintaining lower long-term interest rates, as market confidence in the Fed's policies influences the yield curve [10][11]. - Political pressure to lower rates quickly could undermine the Fed's control over long-term rates, leading to increased inflation risk premiums [14][15]. Neutral Rate and Economic Growth - The neutral federal funds rate is estimated to be around 3% to 3.25%, while some argue it could be 100 basis points lower, providing more maneuvering room for the Fed [17][18]. - Anticipated economic growth in the coming years may add inflationary pressure, necessitating careful policy considerations [19][20].

牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 美联储，传来大消息！ 就在刚刚，美国参议院以48票对47票的微弱优势，通过对斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事会成员的提名。米 兰将参与9月16日开始为期两天的美联储会议。据悉，米兰曾在特朗普第一任总统任期内担任美国财政部 经济政策高级顾问，并拥有哈佛大学经济学专业的博士学位。 圣路易斯联邦储备银行前总裁布拉德表示，他上周与财政部长贝森特就出任美联储主席一职进行了交流， 并表示他对这一职位非常感兴趣。 据CME"美联储观察"最新消息，美联储本周降息25个基点的概率为95.9%，降息50个基点的概率为 4.1%。美联储10月累计降息25个基点的概率为23.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为73.8%，累计降息 75个基点的概率为3.1%。 此外，当地时间15日，特朗普在社交平台发帖威胁称，将在必要时宣布美国全国进入紧急状态，并对华 盛顿特区进行全面联邦管制。 美联储大消息 北京时间16日早上，特朗普提名的美联储理事候选人米兰在美国参议院获得确认任命的足够票数。米兰 的美联储理事提名获参议院及时确认，可以赶上本周 ...

Core Points - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell by 10.8% in the first half of the year, marking the largest decline since 1973, despite significant net capital inflows into the U.S. [1][2] - The decline in the dollar index is attributed to marginal changes in international capital flows rather than a direct correlation with foreign investment in U.S. securities [2][3] - New trade agreements initiated by the U.S. government are expected to reduce the attractiveness of U.S. securities for foreign investors, potentially undermining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [1][12][14] Capital Flow Analysis - In the first half of the year, the U.S. attracted a net capital inflow of $767.7 billion, a 2.78-fold increase year-on-year, despite a significant drop in the dollar index [2][3] - The net inflow decreased by $200.8 billion (20.7%) compared to the second half of the previous year, primarily due to a reduction in private foreign investment [2][3] - Private foreign investment decreased by $325.8 billion, contributing to a 162.3% drop in net capital inflow, while official foreign investment shifted from a net outflow to a net inflow of $1.08 billion [2][3] Securities Investment Trends - Foreign investors did not significantly reduce their holdings of U.S. securities but instead decreased their cash holdings in dollars while increasing investments in foreign securities [3][4] - Foreign investors net purchased $941.9 billion in U.S. securities, a record high for the first half of the year, with a notable increase in U.S. Treasury purchases [3][4] - There was a marked decrease in purchases of U.S. corporate stocks, reflecting a reduced risk appetite among foreign investors due to U.S. economic and trade policy uncertainties [4][5] Official Foreign Investment Insights - Official foreign investment in U.S. Treasury securities saw a significant turnaround, moving from a net sell of $57.6 billion to a net buy of $115.9 billion [5][10] - The overall interest in U.S. Treasury securities among private and official foreign investors showed a stark contrast, with private investors reducing their net purchases [5][10] - The trend indicates that while official foreign investors are increasing their holdings in U.S. Treasuries, private investors are becoming more cautious, particularly regarding U.S. equities [5][10] Impact of Trade Policies - The new trade agreements aim to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, which could lead to a decrease in foreign investment inflows [12][14] - The U.S. government’s aggressive trade policies may negatively impact the dollar's reserve currency status, as effective deficit reduction could lead to reduced capital inflows [12][14] - The structural relationship between trade deficits and capital inflows suggests that a decrease in trade deficits may correlate with a decline in foreign investment in U.S. securities [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The global tariff storm initiated by the U.S. government may reset the global trade and international monetary systems, potentially undermining the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [1][15]. Capital Flow Analysis - In the first half of the year, the U.S. attracted a net inflow of international capital amounting to $767.7 billion, a 2.78-fold increase year-on-year, despite a 10.8% decline in the dollar index, marking the largest drop since 1973 [2]. - The marginal changes in capital flow reveal that the dollar's decline is not directly linked to foreign investors selling U.S. securities but rather to a reduction in interest from private foreign investors [2][3]. - Foreign investors did not significantly reduce their holdings of U.S. securities but opted to decrease their cash holdings in dollars while increasing investments in foreign securities [3][4]. U.S. Securities Investment Trends - Foreign investors predominantly increased their holdings in U.S. long-term securities, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds, while significantly reducing purchases of U.S. corporate stocks, indicating a lowered risk appetite due to U.S. policy uncertainties [4][5]. - The net purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds reached $4,278 billion in the first half of the year, marking a historical high for semi-annual net purchases [5]. Official Foreign Investment Dynamics - Official foreign investors shifted from net selling to net buying of U.S. Treasury bonds, contributing positively to the overall net inflow of foreign capital [2][10]. - The interest from private and official foreign investors in U.S. Treasury bonds showed significant divergence, with private investors reducing their net purchases while official investors increased theirs [5][11]. Impact of New Trade Agreements - The new trade agreements aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit may adversely affect the dollar's status as a reserve currency, as a decrease in trade deficit could lead to a reduction in foreign capital inflows [12][15]. - The U.S. government's aggressive trade policies may lead to a decrease in foreign investment in U.S. securities, as countries commit to increasing direct investments in the U.S. to promote domestic manufacturing [15].

Core Viewpoint - Former St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard advocates for a 100 basis points (1 percentage point) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve within the year, with further cuts possible by 2026 [1][3]. Group 1 - Bullard suggests that the current interest rate level is slightly high and recommends starting the rate cuts at the September meeting, followed by additional reductions [3]. - The current federal funds rate is in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis points cut in September [3]. - Bullard emphasizes the importance of defending the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency while discussing future rate cuts, which will depend on economic data trends [3]. Group 2 - Bullard, who is currently the Dean of Purdue University's Business School, has expressed interest in succeeding Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair and has reached out to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen regarding an interview for the position [3].

Group 1 - The central bank of China set the RMB to USD midpoint at 7.1321, a decrease of 34 points [2] Group 2 - Former St. Louis Fed President and potential Fed Chair candidate, Brad, advocates for a 100 basis point rate cut this year [4] - Brad has been in contact with Treasury Secretary Yellen regarding his candidacy and plans to meet after Labor Day [4] - Future rate cuts will depend on economic data performance, according to Brad [4] - Brad emphasized the importance of maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [4]

Core Viewpoint - Former St. Louis Fed President and candidate for Fed Chair, Brad, calls for a 100 basis point rate cut this year [1] Group 1 - Brad has been in contact with Treasury Secretary Basent regarding his candidacy for Fed Chair and plans to possibly arrange a meeting after Labor Day on September 1 [1] - The decision on whether to further cut rates next year will depend on data performance, according to Brad [1] - Brad emphasized the necessity of maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [1]

Group 1 - James Bullard, a strong contender for the Federal Reserve chair, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, suggesting a total reduction of 100 basis points within this year, starting with a cut in September [1][2] - Bullard's stance contrasts with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who maintains a more cautious outlook, expecting only one rate cut this year, reflecting internal policy disagreements within the Fed amid signs of a weak labor market and inflationary pressures [1][3] - Market expectations are leaning towards a rate cut in the upcoming September meeting, with futures contracts indicating a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction [1] Group 2 - Bullard believes the current policy rate is "a bit too high" and emphasizes the need for swift action, indicating that further cuts could follow later this year depending on economic data [2] - Bostic describes the current interest rate level as "marginally" restrictive and suggests that once the Fed begins to adjust rates, it should do so in a consistent direction rather than oscillating [3] - The divergence in views among Fed officials comes at a critical time for policy-making, with Bostic highlighting concerns over recent employment reports and rising wholesale inflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - Former St. Louis Fed President and candidate for Fed Chair, Brad, calls for a 100 basis point rate cut this year [1] Group 1 - Brad has been in contact with Treasury Secretary Basant regarding his candidacy for Fed Chair and plans to possibly arrange a meeting after Labor Day on September 1 [1] - The decision on whether to further cut rates next year will depend on data performance, according to Brad [1] - Brad emphasized the necessity of maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [1]