[ 今年上半年，洲际交易所（ICE）的美元指数（DXY）累计下跌10.8%，创1973年以来同期最大跌幅， 与美国国际资本流动状况大相径庭。 ] 所谓特里芬难题是指在主权货币作为国际储备货币的情况下，主权货币发行国需要通过国际收支逆差向 全球提供该货币的流动性，但这又会导致货币贬值和信心危机，从而陷入两难境地。该理论完美地预见 到了上世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系的解体。 美国财政部披露的国际资本流动报告数据（TIC）显示，今年上半年，美国国际资本大规模净流入，与 同期美元指数大幅走弱相悖，显示美元弱势与外资抛售美国证券无关，而主要受其边际变动的影响。美 国政府以关税工具胁迫贸易伙伴签订的一系列新贸易协议，在收敛美国贸易逆差的同时，将削弱美国吸 引外来证券投资的潜力，并有损美元储备货币地位。 美指暴跌缘于资本流动的边际变化 TIC统计显示，今年上半年，美国吸引国际资本净流入7677亿美元，同比增加4799亿美元，增长2.78 倍。同期，洲际交易所（ICE）的美元指数（DXY）累计下跌10.8%，创1973年以来同期最大跌幅，与 美国国际资本流动状况大相径庭。然而，从美国国际资本流动的边际变化中或能找到美指大跌的答 ...

美国政府掀起的全球关税风暴或重置全球贸易体系和国际货币体系。 所谓特里芬难题是指在主权货币作为国际储备货币的情况下，主权货币发行国需要通过国际收支逆差向 全球提供该货币的流动性，但这又会导致货币贬值和信心危机，从而陷入两难境地。该理论完美地预见 到了上世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系的解体。 美国财政部披露的国际资本流动报告数据（TIC）显示，今年上半年，美国国际资本大规模净流入，与 同期美元指数大幅走弱相悖，显示美元弱势与外资抛售美国证券无关，而主要受其边际变动的影响。美 国政府以关税工具胁迫贸易伙伴签订的一系列新贸易协议，在收敛美国贸易逆差的同时，将削弱美国吸 引外来证券投资的潜力，并有损美元储备货币地位。 美指暴跌缘于资本流动的边际变化 TIC统计显示，今年上半年，美国吸引国际资本净流入7677亿美元，同比增加4799亿美元，增长2.78 倍。同期，洲际交易所（ICE）的美元指数（DXY）累计下跌10.8%，创1973年以来同期最大跌幅，与 美国国际资本流动状况大相径庭。然而，从美国国际资本流动的边际变化中或能找到美指大跌的答案。 全球美元储备份额或继续稳中趋降 根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新的全球外汇储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rumors regarding foreign capital selling US Treasury bonds are unfounded, as data from the US Treasury's International Capital Movement report indicates that the turmoil in May was not caused by foreign investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In May, global trade tensions eased, with the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy in a 90-day buffer period, leading to a 27.6% month-on-month decline in the US trade policy uncertainty index [1]. - The US government faced increasing criticism of the Federal Reserve, and Moody's downgraded the US's last AAA sovereign credit rating, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and the sustainability of US debt [1]. - The 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields rose above 4.5% and 5.0%, respectively, with monthly increases of 24 and 26 basis points, resulting in a significant drop in Treasury prices [1]. Group 2: Capital Flows - In April, international capital experienced a net outflow of $146 billion, reversing a net inflow of $171.2 billion in March, coinciding with a 4.4% drop in the dollar index [2]. - In May, the US financial market rebounded, with the S&P 500 index rising 6.1%, leading to a net capital inflow of $311.1 billion, a month-on-month increase of $3.257 billion, marking the third-highest monthly inflow on record [2]. Group 3: Foreign Investment in US Securities - Foreign investors net purchased $318.5 billion in US long-term securities in May, a month-on-month increase of $369.1 billion, contributing 113.1% to the net capital inflow [3]. - Private foreign capital was the main contributor, with a net inflow of $333.2 billion, a month-on-month increase of $330.4 billion, marking the highest monthly net inflow on record [4]. Group 4: Types of Securities - Foreign investors significantly increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, with net purchases of $1.463 billion in May, a month-on-month increase of $1.871 billion, contributing 50.7% to the net purchases of long-term securities [5]. - Private foreign investors were the primary buyers of US long-term securities, shifting from a net sale of $50.6 billion to a net purchase of $318.5 billion in May [5][6]. Group 5: Country Contributions - Canada was the largest contributor to the net purchase of US long-term securities in May, with a net inflow of $146.7 billion, accounting for 39.7% of the total [9]. - Other significant contributors included the Cayman Islands, Singapore, China, and Japan, with China ending a 10-month streak of net sales to net purchase $3.2 billion in May [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The attractiveness of dollar assets to Japanese investors has significantly declined, despite Japan not participating in the "sell-off" of U.S. assets [1][10]. Group 1: Capital Flow Reversal - In April, the U.S. experienced a reversal in capital flow, shifting from a net inflow of $253.1 billion in March to a net outflow of $14.2 billion [2]. - Foreign investors sold a net $57.1 billion in U.S. securities in April, compared to a net purchase of $274.3 billion in March, with long-term securities accounting for $50.6 billion of the sales [2][4]. - U.S. investors sold a net $42.8 billion in foreign securities, marking the end of five consecutive months of net purchases [3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Official foreign investors sold a net $17.3 billion in U.S. securities, while private foreign investors continued to net buy, albeit at a significantly reduced amount [4][6]. - The primary driver of the capital flow reversal was the substantial decrease in net purchases by private foreign investors [4][6]. - The main focus of foreign selling was U.S. long-term securities, particularly medium- and long-term government bonds, which saw a net sale of $40.8 billion [4][11]. Group 3: Country-Specific Selling Patterns - Canada was the largest seller of U.S. long-term securities in April, with a net sale of $80.8 billion, significantly higher than other countries [7][8]. - China and Mexico also contributed to the selling, with net sales of $23.9 billion and $13.4 billion, respectively [9][10]. - The U.K. and Japan were notable buyers of U.S. long-term securities, with the U.K. purchasing $67.6 billion, indicating a contrasting trend among different countries [10]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Selling - In April, foreign investors net sold $52.8 billion in U.S. government bonds, marking the highest level of net selling since June 2021 [5][11]. - The selling of U.S. equities was primarily driven by official foreign investors, who sold $33.2 billion, while private investors continued to buy [13][14]. - The trend of selling U.S. corporate bonds was also evident, with both private and official foreign investors participating in the sell-off [15].

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The narrative of a weakening dollar has become a common preference among risk-averse investors since Trump's administration, as significant depreciation of the dollar often leads to revaluation of non-dollar assets[1] - The macroeconomic narrative is a key driver of market direction, with the potential loss of reserve currency status being a significant concern, particularly due to the large debt burden of the U.S.[2] - Historical transitions of reserve currencies have presented substantial asset revaluation opportunities, with past examples showing significant depreciation of the current reserve currency relative to successors and precious metals[2] Group 2: U.S. Debt Analysis - The U.S. government debt burden has increased by 14.6% from 2019 to 2023, while household leverage has decreased by 3.1% and non-financial corporate leverage has decreased by 8.6%[3] - The U.S. government debt level was over 100% before the global pandemic, but concerns were minimal; post-pandemic, the debt has risen significantly, reflecting a societal "leverage transfer"[3] - The pressure from maturing U.S. government bonds is expected to peak in Q1 2027, with an estimated maturity amount of $9 to $10 trillion, compounded by a potential fiscal deficit stabilizing above 5%[5] Group 3: Future Projections - The next two years are critical for the U.S. debt cycle transition, influencing fiscal, monetary policies, and the dollar index[6] - Historical patterns indicate that the current dollar depreciation cycle may last until the end of 2027, with a potential initial rapid depreciation followed by a prolonged period of volatility[7] - Risks include extreme U.S. trade policies leading to faster and larger-than-expected dollar depreciation, which could exacerbate global economic slowdowns[7]