美国消费者信心连续第五个月下降，受访者对劳动力市场和商业环境的看法转趋悲观。 世界大型企业联合会周二公布的数据显示，消费者信心指数从前月的92.9降至89.1，为2008年以来最长 下降周期。 反映当前状况的现状指标下滑至116.8，为2021年2月以来最低水平；而反映未来六个月展望的预期指标 在12月则保持不变。 经济学家原本预计，在创纪录的政府停摆结束后，消费者信心会有所回升。但报告显示消费者信心持续 下滑，表明人们对通胀、关税以及政治局势仍然深切担忧。 高企的物价以及对劳动力市场的担忧贯穿全年，对消费者信心形成压制，该指数长期徘徊在疫情以来最 低水平附近。就业增长乏力，失业率上升，通胀率仍高于美联储的目标。 经济学家预计，明年招聘活动仍将保持温和，失业率改善有限，这可能继续拖累消费者信心。他们还预 计，2026年工资增速将进一步放缓，可能加剧不同收入群体之间的消费分化。 经济学家预计，明年招聘活动仍将保持温和，失业率改善有限，这可能继续拖累消费者信心。他们还预 计，2026年工资增速将进一步放缓，可能加剧不同收入群体之间的消费分化。 认为"工作难找"的消费者比例上升，而认为"工作岗位充足"的比例则下降。 ...

美国消费者信心连续第五个月下降，受访者对劳动力市场和商业环境的看法转趋悲观。 美国消费者信心连续第五个月下降，受访者对劳动力市场和商业环境的看法转趋悲观。 世界大型企业联合会周二公布的数据显示，消费者信心指数从前月的92.9降至89.1，为2008年以来最长 下降周期。 反映当前状况的现状指标下滑至116.8，为2021年2月以来最低水平；而反映未来六个月展望的预期指标 在12月则保持不变。 高企的物价以及对劳动力市场的担忧贯穿全年，对消费者信心形成压制，该指数长期徘徊在疫情以来最 低水平附近。就业增长乏力，失业率上升，通胀率仍高于美联储的目标。 经济学家预计，明年招聘活动仍将保持温和，失业率改善有限，这可能继续拖累消费者信心。他们还预 计，2026年工资增速将进一步放缓，可能加剧不同收入群体之间的消费分化。 世界大型企业联合会周二公布的数据显示，消费者信心指数从前月的92.9降至89.1，为2008年以来最长 下降周期。 反映当前状况的现状指标下滑至116.8，为2021年2月以来最低水平；而反映未来六个月展望的预期指标 在12月则保持不变。 高企的物价以及对劳动力市场的担忧贯穿全年，对消费者信心形成压制， ...

黄金中线参考策略： 现货黄金： 12月21日，消息面：周五在最新数据显示美国消费者信心下降、同时通胀预期进一步回落后，黄金市场 在周末前走强，金价刷新日内高点，避险买盘获得支撑。黄金市场在周末前走高，此前公布的数据显 示，美国消费者信心出现下滑，同时通胀预期有所降温，推动金价刷新当日高点。临近周末，且距离圣 诞节不足一周，市场整体交投情绪趋于平淡。 技术面：从技术结构来看，黄金行情整体仍维持明显的多头格局。价格运行在关键均线之上，高点与低 点不断抬升，显示趋势尚未被破坏。金价稳守100周期指数均线之上，中期上升通道保持完整。RSI运 行在中轴上方，虽有回落但仍处于强势区间，表明多头优势尚存。布林带继续张口，暗示行情仍具备进 一步扩展空间。上方4360美元附近构成短线阻力，该位置对应布林带上轨区域。若黄金价格有效突破， 或重新测试4381美元历史高位，并进一步指向4400美元整数关口。下方支撑方面，4320美元为重要短期 防守位，若跌破，调整或延伸至4300美元，更强支撑关注4285美元附近的中期均线区域。开盘重点关注 上方4360-4380美元一线压力，下方关注4320-4300美元一线支撑。个人预计：低多为 ...

换资前言： 利润才是检验实力的唯一标准，不管分析报告多么的专业，还是文章读起来多么的深入人心，都不能改 变我们追求利润的目的。智者务其实，愚者争虚名，分析师不是作家，不需要多么华丽的语言去感动他 的客户，只需要用利润证明自己，市场变化莫测，优秀的分析师尽可能把握每一波的行情，回报大家， 让你从容不迫面对市场。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五（11月21日）美盘交易时段，黄金价格保持稳定。此前美联储官员为12月会议降息敞开大门，现货 黄金盘中报4081.35美元/盎司，涨幅0.10%，日内最高触及4101美元/盎司。美联储官员释放12月可能降 息的信号，推动鸽派押注升温，现货黄金价格飙升至4100美元附近。美国经济数据显示经济活动保持韧 性，但消费者信心疲软，这加剧了市场对美联储下一轮政策行动的不确定性。由于10月CPI报告缺失， 市场被迫在其他数据上寻找"锚"。下周的PCE通胀数据在美联储决策框架中的边际权重明显升高，一旦 读数偏软，可能重新点燃对12月降息的押注，进而压低无风险利率，对风险资产构成一定支撑，并阶段 性打压美元。与此同步，美国消费者信心的变化被赋予更高权重：若 ...

Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to 50.3 in November, the lowest level since June 2022, down from 53.6 in October, and below the forecast of 53.2 [1][2] - Concerns about the prolonged government shutdown are affecting households across different political affiliations, leading to fears about its negative impact on the economy [1] - Millions of low-income families have seen welfare benefits, including food stamps, cut due to the government shutdown, and hundreds of thousands of federal workers are either furloughed or working without pay [1] Labor Market Concerns - The proportion of American households expecting an increase in unemployment over the next year rose from 52% in October to 62%, the highest level since 1980 [2] - A survey by the New York Federal Reserve indicated that respondents expect unemployment to rise in the coming year and believe it will be difficult to find a job if they become unemployed [2]

Core Points - The U.S. government is facing an unprecedented shutdown, potentially becoming the longest in history, which began on October 1 [1] - The shutdown is expected to have significant negative impacts on the U.S. economy, particularly in sectors like aviation, food, and healthcare, raising the risk of an economic hard landing [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown could reduce the U.S. GDP growth rate by 1-2 percentage points in Q4, with potential losses of $7 billion to $14 billion depending on the duration of the shutdown [2] - Consumer confidence is likely to be directly impacted, with delayed payments to federal employees and contractors exacerbating the situation, especially if the shutdown extends into the holiday season [2] - The shutdown poses a threat to U.S. sovereign credit ratings, with agencies like Scope Ratings downgrading the U.S. rating from "AA" to "AA-" due to deteriorating public finances and rising debt levels [3][4] - The shutdown has created a data vacuum, complicating economic assessments and policy decisions, which could lead to increased market volatility and uncertainty regarding future interest rate paths [5][6] - The liquidity tightening caused by the shutdown has led to a significant reduction in the Federal Reserve's reserve balances, further straining financial conditions and increasing borrowing costs [7]

Group 1 - The middle class in the U.S. is experiencing a decline in economic confidence due to high inflation, tariff uncertainties, and decreasing income expectations, which is affecting consumer behavior across various industries [1][2] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index dropped nearly 6% in August, reversing the upward trend seen in June and July [1][4] - A significant portion of consumers, over 70%, plan to reduce spending on items with high price increases in the coming year [4] Group 2 - Retail and dining sectors are particularly impacted, with Walmart noting a decrease in non-essential purchases among lower-income customers [5] - Fast-food chains like IHOP and Denny's are seeing customers opt for cheaper menu items, while McDonald's benefits from reduced spending at more expensive restaurants by the middle class [5][6] - High-income consumers continue to show strong spending behavior, purchasing luxury items and services, as evidenced by a 32% revenue growth for the Swiss sneaker brand On [6][7] Group 3 - The beauty and medical aesthetics industry is also witnessing a shift, with lower-income customers extending treatment intervals or reducing dosage, indicating economic pressure on this demographic [7]

Core Viewpoint - In July, U.S. consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month, but overall optimism remains at historically low levels, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increasing by 1.6% to 61.7, the highest since February of this year, yet down 7.1% year-over-year [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Sentiment Index - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence regarding the economy, personal financial situation, business environment, and willingness to spend, with a monthly release of preliminary and final values [3]. - The Current Economic Conditions Index (CECI) rose nearly 5% to 68.0, marking the highest level since January, while the Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) slightly declined to 57.7, the first drop since April [3][6]. - Historical data shows that the current index of 61.7 is significantly below the average of 84.4 since 1978, indicating a low level of consumer confidence [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Correlation and Trends - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has a moderate monthly fluctuation average of 3.1 points, with the current 1.0 point change being considered mild [4]. - The index is correlated with U.S. GDP, with a three-month moving average trend aligning with economic fundamentals [4]. - The survey indicates that consumer sentiment changes are more closely related to economic conditions rather than political party affiliation [6]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year decreased for the second consecutive month from 5.0% in June to 4.5%, the lowest since February, although still higher than post-election levels [8]. - Long-term inflation expectations also fell for the third month in a row from 4.0% in June to 3.4%, the lowest since January, yet still elevated compared to the end of last year [8].

Group 1 - The overall consumer confidence in the U.S. has improved in July, but confidence regarding the labor market outlook is lower than last year [1] - Approximately 57% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise, compared to 35% in the same period last year [1] - Consumers remain skeptical about whether the risks of accelerating inflation have passed [1] Group 2 - The current conditions index has risen to a six-month high of 68, while the expectations index has declined to 57.7 [1] - There is a prevailing pessimism regarding the business environment, with high concerns about unemployment [1] - Consumers believe they may be personally affected by economic risks, leading to potentially cautious financial behavior and a slowdown in spending [1]

Group 1 - The current yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has decreased by 2.19 basis points, now standing at 4.4295% [1] - The yield reached a daily low of 4.4155% prior to the release of US consumer confidence and inflation expectations data at 22:00 Beijing time [1]