格隆汇10月10日｜花旗银行投资策略及资产配置部发表报告指，美汇指数3个月预测为96.61，未来6至 12个月预测为101.84，花旗分析师预期2026年美元或收复失地。明年美国中期选举期间，届时将有更多 支持明年美国经济增长政策(放松监管、提前减税，并延后减少开支政策)、人工智能及资本开支增长强 劲和关税不确定性消退等，应支持美国经济增长预期反弹。 ...

美联储理事Barr：价格稳定性目标面临"严重风险"。劳动力市场对负面冲击表现得更加脆弱。美联储应 当对调整政策保持谨慎态度。我本人对"全面看淡关税通胀"这种做法持怀疑态度。不清楚美国政府关门 事件是否会对美国经济增长构成显而易见的影响。 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of the US stock market in September has been strong despite concerns about a potential government shutdown, with major indices rising [1] - Investors are focusing on positive signals, such as the upward revision of the US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate to 3.8%, which is the strongest performance since Q3 2023 [1] - Financial strategists suggest that the potential government shutdown is not a significant risk, encouraging investors to focus on other market drivers like the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and strong corporate earnings [2] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that government shutdowns have had limited impact on the US economy and financial markets, with the S&P 500 showing no change during shutdowns since 1976 [2] - The last major government shutdown from 2018 to 2019 did not significantly affect the stock market, which even rose by 10% during that period [2] - Analysts warn that the current economic environment is more fragile than in previous shutdowns, with instability in the job market and potential federal workforce cuts [3] Group 3 - The interruption of important economic data releases due to a government shutdown could complicate the analysis of labor market conditions, which are already complex [4] - Missing key economic data, such as the employment report and consumer price index, could significantly increase challenges for analysts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jefferson, anticipates that the U.S. economy will continue to grow at around 1.5% for the remainder of the year, indicating potential pressure on the labor market without Federal Reserve support [1] Economic Growth - Jefferson expects the U.S. economy to grow at approximately 1.5% for the rest of the year [1] - He supports a 25 basis point interest rate cut in the September meeting to balance the risks of inflation above target and increasing threats to the labor market [1] Labor Market - The labor market is showing signs of softening, suggesting it may face pressure without adequate support [1] Inflation Outlook - Jefferson predicts that inflation will begin to decline towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target level after this year [1] Policy Uncertainty - The impacts of the Trump administration's trade, immigration, and other policies are still evolving, leading to particularly high uncertainty in baseline forecasts [1] - Although tariffs have a lower impact on inflation and other economic aspects than some economists expected, Jefferson believes these effects will become more apparent in the coming months [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the future of AI investment depends on market willingness to finance future dreams, with concerns about whether AI is a bubble or not [1][5] - The U.S. GDP growth for Q2 was revised to 3.8%, indicating strong consumer spending despite a weak job market, with business investment growing at 7.3% [1][2] - The strong consumer activity and stable prices provide the Federal Reserve with confidence to follow through with planned interest rate cuts, with a consensus among decision-makers for a gradual approach [3] Group 2 - Major tech companies are forming partnerships, such as Nvidia investing $100 billion in OpenAI, which creates a closed-loop funding system that boosts market confidence in the AI industry [3][4] - The AI sector has seen over $600 billion in investments over the past two years, but revenue remains low at approximately $35 billion, raising questions about the sustainability of such investments [4] - Historical context suggests that while AI has the potential to transform industries, the market may experience significant volatility, and not all early players will succeed [5]

Market Overview - Major U.S. indices declined for the third consecutive trading day, with the Dow Jones down 173.96 points (0.38%) to 45947.32, the Nasdaq down 113.16 points (0.50%) to 22384.70, and the S&P 500 down 33.25 points (0.50%) to 6604.72, amid rising U.S. Treasury yields [1] - European indices also fell, with Germany's DAX30 down 136.90 points (0.58%) to 23544.80, the UK's FTSE 100 down 36.88 points (0.40%) to 9213.55, and France's CAC40 down 32.03 points (0.41%) to 7795.42 [1] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for November delivery fell by $0.01 to $64.98 per barrel (0.02% decrease), while Brent crude oil futures rose by $0.11 to $69.42 per barrel (0.16% increase) [2] - Bitcoin dropped over 3% to $109,421.30, and Ethereum fell over 6% to $3,903.01 [3] Precious Metals and Forex - Spot gold increased by over 0.3% to $3,749.04 [4] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.7% to 98.554, with the euro at $1.1653, the pound at $1.3335, and the yen at ¥149.89 [4] Economic Data - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in Q2, up from a previous estimate of 3.3%, indicating a strong rebound from the pandemic [5] - Consumer spending and business equipment spending remain resilient, with expectations for a nearly 3% year-over-year increase in personal consumption expenditures for August [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggested the possibility of a rapid 50 basis point rate cut to mitigate economic risks, emphasizing the need for a quicker adjustment to monetary policy [6] - Dallas Fed President Logan proposed shifting from the federal funds rate to a more stable overnight rate linked to U.S. Treasury collateral for monetary policy execution [6] Mortgage Rates - U.S. mortgage rates rose to 6.3%, ending a streak of declines, which may impact affordability for potential buyers [8] - Economists believe that a drop below 6% could encourage more homeowners to sell, increasing the inventory of second-hand homes [8] Regulatory Developments - Meta is facing potential EU charges for inadequate regulation of illegal content on its platforms, which could result in fines up to 6% of its global annual revenue [10] - Google may face a second significant fine from the EU related to competition law violations, following a previous fine of €2.95 billion for unfair practices [11]

The U.S. economy accelerated in the second quarter as the Commerce Department released its second revision of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the latest quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday released its third and final estimate of second-quarter GDP, which showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the April through June period. That figure was hotter than the 3.3% estimate of economists polled by LSEG, and came in higher than the Commerce Department's initia ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, with a target range now set at 4%-4.25% [2][4] - The decision was made with 11 votes in favor and 1 against, highlighting a division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts [2][4] - The Fed acknowledged rising risks to employment despite persistent inflation, indicating a shift in focus towards job preservation [2][4] Group 2 - The Fed's internal division is evident, with 10 officials predicting two or more rate cuts this year, while 9 believe there will be one or fewer [4] - Economic uncertainties, including labor supply changes and government policy unpredictability, complicate the Fed's decision-making process [4][5] - The potential for a global wave of rate cuts is anticipated following the Fed's decision, with other central banks likely to follow suit [5][6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the Fed's rate cut may provide some support for U.S. economic growth, but overall growth is expected to remain under pressure due to various factors [6] - The rate cut opens up greater room for monetary policy adjustments in China, potentially leading to further easing measures [6] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is expected to increase, potentially drawing more international capital back to China [6]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's baseline view is that U.S. GDP growth will slow to around 1% by Q4 2025, with only a slight increase in 2026, indicating that U.S. economic growth may not surpass that of other regions [1] - A recent weak labor market report highlights stagnation in hiring activity, underscoring the downside risks to economic growth [1] - The market is digesting significant risks associated with further easing policies from the Federal Reserve, with expectations that lower rates will stimulate foreign investors to hedge their dollar assets, potentially supporting the dollar [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the sustainability of public finances in countries like France and the UK are increasing the term premium on the yield curve, putting pressure on the euro and pound, while the U.S. is also affected by these fiscal trends [2] - A key risk for the dollar is the growth outlook and uncertainty surrounding monetary and public policy, with expectations that the dollar will weaken for the remainder of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, supports the idea of easing monetary policy next month, with a reasonable expectation of two rate cuts this year [1] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in July unexpectedly accelerated, marking the largest increase in three years, with a month-on-month rise of 0.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, both exceeding market expectations [1] - The rise in PPI indicates that businesses are passing on higher import costs associated with tariffs, suggesting that inflationary pressures are far from over [1] Retail Sales Performance - U.S. retail sales in July exceeded expectations, driven by strong automobile sales and major online promotions, indicating increased consumer spending and boosting optimism about U.S. economic growth [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Daly noted that while the labor market is gradually slowing and the economy is decelerating, it has not yet stalled, and inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, suggesting potential rate cuts later this year [1] - Daly expressed concern about delaying necessary support for the labor market due to fears of persistent inflation, advocating for a balanced approach to monetary policy [1] - However, she opposed the necessity of a 50 basis point cut at the September meeting, indicating that such a move would signal an emergency situation, which she does not believe is warranted given the current labor market conditions [1]