热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月13日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0103，上调5点。 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为95% 智通财经1月13日电，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5.0%，维持利率不变的 概率为95.0%。到3月累计降息25个基点的概率为26.0%，维持利率不变的概率为72.8%，累计降息50个 基点的概率为1.2%。 美联储威廉姆斯暗示短期内没有降息的理由 |纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周一预计2026年美国经济将保持健康，并暗示短期内没有降息的理由。威廉姆 斯表示，FOMC已将货币政策从温和限制性的立场进一步推向接近中性的水平，"当前的货币政策已具 备良好条件，有助于支持劳动力市场的稳定，并推动通胀回归2%的目标。"威廉姆斯表示，美联储在将 通胀拉回2%目标的同时，"避免给就业市场带来不必要的风险"至关重要。他补充称："近几个月，随着 劳动力市场降温，就业面临的下行风险有所上升，而通胀的上行风险则有所减弱。"威廉姆斯预计今年 GDP增速在2.5%至2.75%之间，失业率今年趋于稳定，并在随后几年回落。在通胀方面，他预计价格压 力将在今年 ...

高盛经济学家近日发布报告指出，多项积极因素有望在今年共同提振美国经济。这些因素包括正在推行的减税政策、居民实际薪资的持续增长以及不断积累 的家庭财富。该机构同时预测，在经济增长的同时，通胀压力也将进一步趋于温和。 在通胀方面，高盛预测核心通胀指标将在年底前回落至接近长期目标的水平，显示出价格增长持续缓和的趋势。就业市场方面，其基准预测是失业率将保持 相对稳定。不过报告也警示，企业未来可能借助人工智能等技术优化成本，这或会带来一段时期"无就业增长"的潜在风险。 此外，报告还认为，美国可能在贸易政策上采取更为审慎的态度，避免进一步大幅提高关税。梅里克尔还强调，在减税与实际收入增长的双重支持下，消费 者支出预计将稳步增长。得益于更为宽松的金融环境、政策不确定性降低以及税收激励，企业投资有望成为推动年度经济增长的最强劲动力。 布米普特拉北京投资基金分析师认为，近期公布的美国就业市场数据呈现出复杂信号，新增非农就业人数略低于市场预期，而失业率则与预期基本相符。在 该数据公布后，市场对美联储短期内降息的预期概率有所调整。目前，市场目光正聚焦于美联储即将召开的新一期会议，根据相关利率观测工具显示，市场 普遍预期本次会议将维 ...

华泰证券研报称，12月美国新增非农就业5万，低于彭博一致预期的7万，10-11月累计下修7.6万。虽然 失业率有所下行，但前两个月大幅下修使得私人部门新增非农三个月均值回落至2.9万的低位，且结构 进一步"失衡"。往前看，维持就业市场未来将逐步改善的判断，关注经济增长和就业之间的"温差"；我 们预计联储在1-5月暂停降息，待新联储主席就任后降息1-2次。12月新增非农就业不及预期，且集中在 少数行业：从就业扩散指数看，12月相对11月有所回落。考虑到近期首申多数好于预期，裁员人数有所 回落，领先指标NFIB企业招聘意愿持续改善，我们仍然预计美国新增非农后续将有所回升。关注美国 经济增长和就业市场之间的"温差"。从联储的角度看，就业数据虽然偏弱，但并未继续恶化，我们预计 联储在1月会议上将暂缓降息，强调观察后续数据再做决策。因此，我们预计联储在1-5月将暂停降息， 待新任联储主席上任后再降息1-2次。 ...

钛媒体App 1月9日消息，高盛研究部预测2026年全球经济预计将实现2.8%的稳健增长，高于市场普遍 预期的2.6%。美国经济表现将尤为突出，预计增长2.8%（市场预期2.0%），主要得益于关税拖累减 弱、减税政策以及更为宽松的金融环境。中国经济也将保持良好势头，预计增长4.8%（市场预期 4.5%），强劲的出口将有效抵消国内需求疲软的影响。尽管面临长期挑战，欧元区经济前景依然乐 观，预计增长1.3%（市场预期1.1%），得益于德国的财政刺激和西班牙的强劲增长。（广角观察） ...

美联储里士满联储主席托马斯·巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）表示，面对通胀与就业双重目标所面临的不确 定性，未来货币政策路径必须采取"精细调整"策略。他强调，当前政策利率已处于中性区间，但决策仍 需高度依赖后续经济数据，不预设方向。 展望2026年，巴尔金表达了审慎乐观态度。他认为，去年困扰市场的多重不确定性有望逐步消退，从而 提振消费者和企业信心。此外，他提及税收改革、监管放松以及潜在的降息政策，均可能在今年对经济 增长形成支撑。 来源：新华财经 巴尔金指出，尽管美国通胀率已从前期高点显著回落，但仍高于美联储2%的长期目标；与此同时，失 业率维持在低位，但政策制定者不希望劳动力市场状况进一步恶化。他重申美联储双重使命的两面性， 并提醒需"关注熊市"风险，即在抑制通胀的同时避免引发深度经济收缩。 在评估2025年经济表现时，巴尔金肯定了整体韧性，但也指出结构性隐忧：需求与就业增长过度集中于 少数行业，且市场情绪已出现明显下滑。这一不平衡可能削弱复苏的广度与可持续性。 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth for Q3 2025 reached 4.3%, surpassing the previous quarter's 3.8% and exceeding market expectations of 3.9%-4.0%, marking the fastest growth in two years [3][4] - The growth was driven by a 3.5% increase in consumer spending, expanded business investments, and stable trade policies, while the core PCE inflation rate rose to 2.9%, indicating some inflationary pressure [3][5] - The Federal Reserve plans to implement only one more interest rate cut in 2026, maintaining a cautious monetary policy stance to balance economic growth and inflation control [5] Group 2: Impact on Chinese Sellers - Strong consumer spending growth in the U.S. presents significant opportunities for Chinese cross-border sellers, particularly in categories like electronics, home decor, and leisure products [6][8] - Increased business investments in the U.S. indicate a rising demand for industrial equipment and digital solutions, creating a favorable environment for Chinese B2B sellers [6] - The stability in U.S. trade policies reduces risks associated with tariffs on Chinese goods, allowing for better long-term inventory planning and pricing strategies [6][8] Group 3: Strategies for Chinese Sellers - Chinese sellers should optimize product positioning and market strategies to align with U.S. consumer trends, focusing on high-demand categories [7][8] - Enhancing supply chain resilience and logistics capabilities is crucial, especially in light of ongoing global supply chain challenges [7][8] - Establishing a local entity in the U.S. can improve brand credibility and operational efficiency, with services like those offered by lngStart facilitating this process [9][10]

最近几周，短期和长期美债收益率利差已经扩大，这表明投资者对美联储的独立性越来越担心。 美国总统特朗普当地时间29日再次表示，还是有可能解雇现任美联储主席鲍威尔，并重申已有下一任美联储主席 人选，将在1月某个时候宣布。 当前，市场并未对美联储独立性受威胁进行交易，但投资者确实预计，美联储将迎来内部分歧更加显著、主席更 加弱势以及更容易发生激进变革的时期。 宏利投资管理（Manulife Investment Management）的美国利率交易主管洛里齐奥（Michael Lorizio）称："如果新 任美联储主席在沟通方式上深思熟虑，不仅有助于他们将共识引向其观点，而且还能创造稳定，避免做出任何可 能损害美联储对经济的影响力的举动。" 仍威胁解雇鲍威尔 特朗普29日表示，他仍然在考虑就鲍威尔在美联储一项翻修工程中的"严重无能"，对后者提起诉讼。特朗普称， 鲍威尔"应该立即辞职"，并且"我很想解雇他"。今年7月，鲍威尔险些被特朗普罢免，但美国市场立即作出负面反 应，市场人士抨击这可能威胁美联储的独立性，从而扰乱市场。这番警告令特朗普态度转变。但此次，特朗普表 示，"也许我仍然可能会（这么做）。" 鲍威尔的任期将 ...

Moneyfarm的分析师Richard Flax在一份报告中说，美国经济预计将在2026年实现稳健增长。他说，对人 工智能行业的大量投资、美联储降低利率以及政府的支持可能会促进经济增长。这种增长预计将推高美 国企业的收益。Richard Flax表示："宏观经济背景似乎是有利的，尽管这在很大程度上取决于人工智能 投资的持续势头。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting views on the potential for a significant economic boom in the U.S. driven by AI investments, highlighting skepticism from authoritative economic forecasts compared to optimistic predictions from figures like Elon Musk [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Predictions - Federal Reserve officials predict a median economic growth rate of around 1.8% for the coming years, which starkly contrasts with Musk's optimistic projections of double-digit growth [3]. - The International Monetary Fund has slightly raised its growth forecast for the U.S. economy, now estimating it at 2%, still reflecting a cautious outlook [3]. Group 2: AI Investment Surge - Major tech companies, including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, are projected to invest approximately $364 billion in capital this year, driven by an unprecedented AI investment wave [3]. - Pennsylvania has attracted over $90 billion in investments, transforming former steel mills into large-scale computing facilities, indicating a significant shift in economic focus [3]. Group 3: Concerns Over Sustainability - The current economic growth in the U.S. is largely supported by investments in data centers, with minimal contributions from other sectors, raising concerns about economic imbalance [3][4]. - There is a widening gap between spending and profitability in the generative AI sector, as the costs associated with computing power are increasing faster than revenue generation [4]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The article raises questions about whether the current AI investment frenzy is a genuine industrial revolution or a financial bubble reminiscent of the internet bubble two decades ago [4]. - For AI to drive sustainable economic growth, it must penetrate traditional industries like manufacturing and healthcare, enhancing efficiency and creating new value, which will require time and integration [5].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have reached a historic high, driven by strong U.S. economic growth and a weakening dollar, with three-month copper prices closing at $12,162.5 per ton on December 24, 2023, marking a 0.85% increase [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Performance - LME three-month copper rose by $102, or 0.85%, closing at $12,162.5 per ton, with an intraday peak of $12,282 [1][2]. - Copper prices have increased by 2.4% this week and over 8% in December, positioning for the best monthly performance since April 2024, with an annual increase of 38% [3]. - The copper premium at Yangshan Port surged to $55 per ton, the highest level since September 24 [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q3 2023, surpassing market expectations and marking the fastest quarterly growth in two years [3]. - Consumer spending in the U.S. showed strong growth, while both investment and imports declined [3]. Group 3: Other Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum increased by $21.5, or 0.73%, closing at $2,960.5 per ton [2][4]. - LME three-month zinc decreased by $3, or 0.1%, closing at $3,090.5 per ton [2][4]. - LME three-month lead rose by $12, or 0.61%, closing at $1,994.5 per ton [2][4]. - LME three-month tin increased by $23, or 0.05%, closing at $42,815 per ton [2][4]. - LME three-month nickel rose for the sixth consecutive day, increasing by $47, or 0.3%, closing at $15,786 per ton, amid market speculation about reduced mining output in Indonesia by 2026 [4].