他还警告，负利率可能对养老金领取者和金融机构不利，因此短期内瑞郎进一步升值空间有限。 在最近的交易中，美元/瑞士法郎下跌，以巩固其之前上涨的收益，试图减轻相对强弱指标上的超买状 况，尤其是在出现负面信号的情况下，以聚集其看涨力量，这可能有助于其在继续受到动态支撑的情况 下恢复并再次上涨，这种动态支撑表现为交易价格高于50日指数移动平均线，加强了未来一段时间内价 格复苏的可能性，同时短期内的看涨修正趋势占主导地位，并且其交易沿着趋势线进行。 目前美元兑瑞郎汇率在0.8000附近获得支撑，若稳守该水平，短线调整可能有限，下方关注0.7970– 0.7965区域及月初低点0.7920作为支撑。 投资者将重点关注鲍威尔在华盛顿社区银行会议的讲话，以获取美联储未来利率走向信号，这将直接影 响美元及USD/CHF走势。 瑞士央行9月25日发布消息称，将维持政策利率在0%。路透社称，这是该行自2024年3月启动降息周期 以来，首次暂停降息。 瑞士央行对负利率态度谨慎。SNB主席马丁·施莱格尔指出，消费者通胀预期可能在未来几个季度加 速，这可能限制市场对超宽松货币政策的预期。 周四（10月9日）亚洲时段，美元/瑞郎自月内高点 ...

植田和男的上述讲话提高了市场对于日本央行在不久的将来加息的预期。在美联储重启降息的同时，日 本央行的加息措施无疑将进一步提振日元，日元的避险功能也会进一步被加强。 正如笔者在先前文章中阐述的，日本央行的货币政策在相当大的程度上是在配合美联储的货币政策。巴 菲特先生近期增加对日本商社的投资正是老爷子摸清了这一脉络的投资决策。 目前，日本的基准利率水平仍处于低位，如果考虑到日本经济的通货膨胀率，当前日本的实际利率仍然 为负利率水平。不过，随着日本央行逐步将基准利率调升，未来的日本的利率水平可能会在一定程度上 对日本经济产生负面影响。届时，日本的高利率会给日本经济雪上加霜。 JerryZang 10月3日（星期五），日本央行行长植田和男在一次讲话中警告称，价格上涨持续的时间可能比预期更 长，长期通胀可能会对消费者支出造成压力。植田和男指出，如果经济表现符合预期，日本央行将提高 基准利率。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Core Points - The USD/CHF exchange rate opened at 0.7995 and showed a slight decline of 0.03% to 0.7994 as of the report, with a high of 0.8007 and a low of 0.7989 [1] - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governor indicated that the threshold for entering negative interest rates is higher than normal rate cuts, but the SNB is prepared to use all available tools if necessary [1] - High tariffs in Switzerland pose challenges for businesses, yet a significant portion of the Swiss economy remains unaffected by these tariffs [1] - Only about 4% of Swiss exports are directly impacted by U.S. tariffs, suggesting limited overall economic impact [1] - The current monetary policy in Switzerland is expansionary, and even with negative interest rates, monetary policy remains effective according to board member Tschudin [1] - The 50-day SMA (0.7972) and 100-day SMA (0.7968) form a mid-term resistance zone for the USD/CHF exchange rate, which is currently about 0.19 points away from this area [1] - The 200-day SMA (0.7850) serves as a long-term support level, with no signs of a weakening trend observed [1]

转自：新华财经 【机构分析】 •巴克莱汇市策略师指出，过去几个月虽发生"异乎寻常的利空事件"，但美元并未延续2月至5月间的大 幅走软趋势，而是在相对窄幅区间内保持稳定。他们认为，市场预期美国经济将在未来几个月反弹，是 支撑美元韧性的关键因素。不过，该行也对美联储独立性面临的威胁表示谨慎，警惕潜在政策风险对美 元的长期影响。 •凯投宏观经济学家指出，尽管瑞士央行在9月25日暂停降息，将政策利率维持在0%不变，但未来仍有 可能将利率降至零以下。瑞士央行此次暂停降息是为应对美国高额贸易关税对经济增长的威胁，但在外 部压力持续、经济前景承压的背景下，瑞士央行对2025年通胀回升的预期可能被高估。随着实际经济数 据可能弱于预期，政策制定者或将被迫进一步放松货币政策。 •美国银行分析师指出，印尼央行上周意外降息，被视为屈从于总统推动增长的政治压力，其扩张性财 政政策与宽松货币政策的组合正对印尼盾构成"轻微负面影响"，并可能损害财政信誉。 •评级机构惠誉已将泰国主权信用展望由"稳定"下调至"负面"，主因公共财政风险上升与持续的政治不 确定性。 •杰富瑞指出，印度股市年初至今跑输亚洲同行，具备短期反弹基础。海外配置偏低但有望 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0%, marking a pause in its easing cycle that began in March 2024, with officials avoiding a return to negative interest rates [3][5]. Monetary Policy - The SNB's decision aligns with market expectations, as inflation pressure has remained stable compared to the previous quarter [3]. - The central bank will continue to monitor the situation and adjust its monetary policy as necessary to ensure price stability [3][8]. - The SNB has indicated that reintroducing negative interest rates would pose risks to the financial system, setting a higher threshold for such a move [3][5]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - Current inflation is at 0.2%, slightly above the SNB's forecast, but still within the target range of 0%-2% [3][5]. - The SNB projects average inflation of 0.2% for 2025, 0.5% for 2026, and 0.7% for 2027, based on the assumption that the policy rate remains at 0% throughout the forecast period [8][10]. - The global economic outlook is uncertain, with potential impacts from U.S. trade policies and ongoing high uncertainty affecting Switzerland's economic prospects [9][10]. Currency Strength - The Swiss franc has strengthened significantly this year, rising over 12% against the U.S. dollar and nearly 1% against the euro, making it one of the best-performing currencies in the G10 [5][10]. - The SNB's cautious approach to the strengthening franc allows for observation of capital inflows without immediate reaction [3][5]. Economic Growth - The Swiss economy showed weak growth in the second quarter, with GDP increasing by only 0.5%, following a strong first quarter [9][10]. - The central bank expects GDP growth of 1% to 1.5% for 2025, with a slight decline anticipated for 2026 due to the impact of tariffs and high uncertainty [10].

9月25日，瑞士央行的官员们将基准利率维持在0%，符合市场预期。 瑞士央行在声明中表示： "与上一季度相比，通胀压力几乎没有变化。为确保物价稳定，央行将继续监测形势，并在必要时调整其货币政 策。" 【导读】 瑞士央行自2024年初以来首次暂停宽松政策，维持零利率 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，简单关注一下瑞士央行最新的议息结果。 瑞士国家银行（SNB）维持借贷成本不变，暂停其宽松周期，官员们回避重返负利率。 此次按兵不动，紧随自2024年3月开始的连续六次降息之后。官员们一再表示，重新引入全球唯一的负利率会对金融体系造成伤害，这意 味着相较于常规降息，他们对这种举措会设定更高的门槛。 尽管通胀可能接近其0%—2%区间的下限，但最新0.2%的读数仍高于央行的预测。 瑞士央行 行长马丁·施莱格尔及其同僚似乎也采取了对 本币走强更为审慎应对的方针，尽管这会压低进口价格。 这将使他们有回旋余地来观察流入瑞郎的资金——上周瑞郎兑美元升至十年来高位——而无需立刻做出反应。相较之下，对于瑞士出口商 来说更为重要的瑞郎兑 欧元汇率， 目前大致与6月的水平相当。 声明宣布后，瑞郎兑美元报0.7963，基本稳定。 今年以来，瑞郎 ...

瑞士法郎对此决定反应平淡，公布后兑欧元汇率为0.9341，兑美元汇率为0.7956，基本持平。不过今年以来瑞士法郎表现强 劲，兑美元升值超过12%，兑欧元升值近1%，成为G-10货币中表现最佳的货币之一。 周四，瑞士央行维持借贷成本不变，将基准利率维持在零水平，以避免恢复负利率，结束了自3月份以来连续六次降息的宽松 周期。这一决定符合几乎所有接受彭博调查的24位经济学家的预期，仅有一位经济学家此前预测会降息。 央行行长Martin Schlegel表示，与上一季度相比，通胀压力基本保持不变。我们将继续监测形势，并在必要时调整货币政策， 以确保价格稳定。最新通胀率为0.2%，仍高于央行此前预测。 央行官员此前一直表示，重新引入负利率将对金融系统造成损害，因此采取这一措施需要更高的标准。目前瑞士出口商正面 临特朗普政府对瑞士征收的高额关税压力。 通胀压力维持低位，央行采取观望态度 与全球央行政策分化，经济学家预期降息周期结束 瑞士央行暂停降息主要基于当前通胀形势的稳定。尽管0.2%的通胀率接近央行0-2%目标区间的下限，但仍略高于央行此前预 测。Schlegel和同事们似乎采取了更加审慎的政策立场，对瑞士法郎走强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate opened at 0.8000 and is currently showing a slight increase, with market expectations focused on the upcoming Swiss CPI data for August, which is anticipated to remain stable at an annual rate of 0.2% [1] Exchange Rate Movement - The USD/CHF rate is currently at 0.8012, reflecting a 0.15% increase from the previous close [1] - The highest price recorded today is 0.8016, while the lowest is 0.7999 [1] Economic Indicators - The Swiss CPI data set to be released on Thursday is crucial for the CHF's performance, as higher-than-expected inflation could reduce the likelihood of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowering interest rates into negative territory later this year [1] - The SNB had previously cut the policy rate to zero in June, with the CPI for May showing a year-on-year rate of -0.1% [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The next SNB interest rate decision is scheduled for September 25, followed by another on December 11, with the CPI data expected to provide significant insights into market expectations regarding SNB's monetary policy [1] Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF is experiencing narrow fluctuations around 0.8015, facing clear resistance from a recent downward trend line, indicating a bearish outlook in the short term [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is notably below the midline, suggesting strong bearish momentum [1] - Resistance is identified near the recent high of 0.8100, while initial support is at the psychological level of 0.8000; a break below this support could lead to further declines towards the recent low of 0.7910 [1]

Group 1 - The central bank's continued interest rate cuts can significantly reduce the cost of existing debt for households, businesses, and the government, leading to substantial savings in interest payments each year [1][5] - As of June, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) increased by 4.6%, indicating positive changes in financial data [1] - M1 is considered a leading indicator of economic activity, as it reflects the liquidity available for consumption, investment, and trading [1][2] Group 2 - A further increase in M1 growth to between 5% and 10% is necessary for true monetary easing and to stimulate consumption, stabilize housing prices, and revitalize the stock market [2][4] - The net financing of government bonds in the first half of the year reached 7.66 trillion yuan, which is 4.32 trillion yuan more than the previous year, benefiting from the low-interest environment [4] - The corporate bond net financing was 1.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of 256.2 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a need for improved business investment confidence and further interest rate cuts [4] Group 3 - The current household debt in China amounts to approximately 80 trillion yuan, and a 1% reduction in interest rates could save households around 800 billion yuan in interest payments annually [5] - Non-financial enterprises owe about 150 trillion yuan to banks, and a 1% interest rate cut could result in an additional 1.5 trillion yuan in profits for these companies [5] - The total government debt, including hidden debts, is over 100 trillion yuan, and a 1% interest rate reduction could save the government more than 100 billion yuan in interest payments each year [5] Group 4 - There is a viewpoint that emphasizes the importance of not deliberately devaluing the currency to enhance export advantages, suggesting that market forces should dictate currency value [8] - Concerns about interest rate cuts leading to currency devaluation and capital outflow are seen as misplaced, as the primary goal of monetary policy should be to stabilize domestic economic growth and employment [8][9] - Historical examples from Japan and the U.S. demonstrate that aggressive monetary policies, including zero and negative interest rates, can successfully stimulate economic recovery [9][10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the tensions between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates [4][5]. - Trump expresses a desire for significant interest rate cuts, suggesting reductions of 100 to 250 basis points, and criticizes Powell for not supporting lower rates [4][5]. - The article notes that Trump feels misled by Powell regarding the Federal Reserve's actions and threatens to dismiss him if necessary [4]. Group 2 - The article presents various economic indicators, including a CPI annual rate of -0.25% and a rising unemployment rate of +2.3% [5]. - It outlines the historical context of interest rates under different administrations, indicating a trend of dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's policies [5]. - The article emphasizes Trump's stance that as long as interest rates are not lowered, he will remain unhappy with the Federal Reserve's performance [5].