【中金2026展望：泡沫加速！美国"财政主导"利好中美股市和金银铜】中金公司预计，2026年特朗普政 府将转向财政货币双宽松，美联储常态化扩表释放流动性，缓解美国经济三大症结（信心扰动、小企业 扩张迟滞、地产疲弱）。宽松环境利好科技、工业、资源板块，并推动美元趋势性贬值。弱美元周期 下，人民币有升值空间，全球资金再平衡将提振A/港股，新经济板块持续领跑，消费内需板块有望补 涨。金银铜等顺通胀资产受益。 ...

Group 1 - The weak US dollar is driving a global economic recovery, boosting domestic export growth and profit improvement in China [1] - Global monetary policy and liquidity are becoming more accommodative, raising valuations for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - Increased foreign capital inflow is expected to support A-shares, driven by a weak dollar and domestic policy catalysts [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration's policies since 2025 have hindered the nominal economic recovery in the US, but a shift in focus towards domestic issues may lead to fiscal and monetary easing in 2026 [2] - The easing environment is expected to alleviate three major constraints on the US economy, including weak consumer confidence and sluggish housing demand [2] - The technology, industrial, and resource sectors in the US are anticipated to continue leading the market in 2026, while consumer and financial sectors may catch up as the nominal cycle improves [2] Group 3 - A weaker dollar may provide room for the renminbi to appreciate, supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts and year-end foreign exchange settlement peaks [3] - The anticipated trend of abundant dollar liquidity suggests that the US dollar is likely in a depreciation phase, which may support the renminbi [3]

点击小程序查看报告原文 2025的症结，2026的解法 整体来看2025年美国经济保持了一定的韧性，主要受益于强劲的AI与工业设备投资，但不可否认的是名义经济周期复苏进程偏慢（图表1），主要症结有 三。 Abstract 摘要 2025年以来特朗普政府的DOGE、对等关税、打击非法移民等政策冲击不断，拖累了美国名义经济周期复苏的进程。进入2026年，中期选举压力临近[1]， 或迫使特朗普对外政策软化，将施政重心转向国内，实质性推动财政货币双宽松与金融去监管。我们预计，财政货币双宽的环境将有效缓解2025年制约美 国经济的三大症结，即负面冲击多拖累信心、小企业扩张迟滞拖累终端需求、以及购房需求弱拖累地产投资。同时，宽松的信贷环境将继续支撑今年表现 亮眼的AI与再工业化相关投资。因此，我们判断2025年美股内表现较好的科技、工业、资源等板块在2026年有望继续领跑，而受美国内需拖累的消费与金 融板块随着名义周期的上行可能补涨。随着12月FOMC后美联储开启常态化扩表[2]（详见 《财政主导，重启扩表》 ），明年美元流动性大概率逐步趋 松，与有望复苏的基本面共同支撑全球风险资产，尤其利好新兴市场，以及顺通胀顺美元流 ...

专题：2025基金行业年终大盘点：公募规模近36万亿元，主动权益重夺主场，"冠军基"揭榜倒计时 上周A股市场呈现先抑后扬的震荡修复格局，指数表现分化，结构上"沪强深弱"。在"扩大内需"政策预 期及高股息避险属性驱动下，消费、非银金融成为领涨主线，而此前活跃的AI应用、AI硬件有所回 调。周内A股交投活跃度有所下降，日均成交额降至1.76万亿元。市场风格方面，消费行业领涨而科技 板块有所回调，整体表现为：消费>金融>周期>成长。 金鹰基金表示，在国内年末资金调仓与政策催化背景下，资金在市场调整期向防御性与政策支持方向迁 移。数据方面，11月消费受高基数和政策透支影响明显放缓，固定资产投资延续负增长，房地产市场持 续低迷，外需则是少数亮点。但往明年年初看，货币发力和财政前置有望带动国内经济环比改善，两会 窗口亦会明确"十五五"规划重点工程项目和远期经济动能抓手。 本资料所引用的观点、分析及预测仅为个人观点，是其在目前特定市场情况下并基于一定的假设条件下 的分析和判断，并不意味着适合今后所有的市场状况，相关指数、行业等的过往表现不代表未来表现， 也不代表本公司旗下基金的业绩表现，不构成对阅读者的投资建议。基金过往业 ...

金价现在贵不贵？ 很多人觉得4000多美元已经够贵了。但得看跟什么比。 从1980年到现在，金价跟美国CPI的比率，历史平均3.2倍。就是金价大概是通胀水平的3倍多点，这是 个相对稳定的锚。但现在呢？这比率已经飙到6倍，跟1980年那次历史大顶一样。 本文仅在今日头条发布，谢绝转载。 今年金价涨了60%多，现在每盎司4000美元出头。2026年金价怎么说？ 翻开机构报告，高盛说2026年能到4900美元，瑞银说4500美元，世界黄金协会说可能涨30%，也可能跌 20%。这不就是"你猜"？ 于是黄金成了唯一的"无对手方风险资产"。你放自己金库里，谁也动不了。高盛预计2026年各国央行每 月还会买70吨，瑞银说全年900吨。 这不是投资，这是"国家级囤粮"。 且2026年美联储大概率继续降息，联邦基金利率可能从现在4.5%降到3.6%左右。 什么意思？如果按"对抗通胀"的逻辑，黄金现在已经透支了未来的购买力。就像你刷信用卡买了个包， 包是真的，但账单也是真的。 所以从均值回归看，金价回调概率会越来越大。这是第一个风险信号。 利率下降意味着什么？意味着持有黄金这种"无息资产"的机会成本降低了。你本来把钱放银行能拿5 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market and new birth population scale, prioritizing domestic demand and reiterating policies like interest rate cuts [1][5] - The focus on stabilizing the real estate market is highlighted by the term "efforts" indicating a strong policy commitment, with strategies including controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing [4][2] - The long-term goal for real estate is to shift towards a "new model" that includes quality housing construction, urban renewal, and a dual rental and purchase system [5] Group 2 - The conference advocates for a positive marriage and childbirth outlook to stabilize the birth population, with recent data showing a slight increase in marriage rates [6][7] - A dual approach of fiscal and monetary easing is proposed, with a focus on maintaining necessary deficits and ensuring liquidity, while also considering price stability as a key factor [8][9] - The emphasis on stimulating consumption is elevated to a primary task, with a clear shift towards "domestic demand-led" growth, indicating that consumption will be the main driver of economic growth [9][10] Group 3 - Major city clusters like Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area are designated for specific roles in innovation and economic development, highlighting their importance as economic and technological hubs [10][11] - The future competition among cities will focus on innovation and emerging industries rather than traditional infrastructure investments, with a call for coordinated development and regional collaboration [11]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Summit and China-Saudi Investment Cooperation Forum hosted by CITIC Securities aims to explore investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral relations between China and Saudi Arabia, marking a significant milestone in their partnership [1][3]. Group 1: CITIC Securities' Strategic Focus - CITIC Securities aims to enhance its role as a "value investment bank," focusing on international market competition and customer value [3][4]. - The company plans to develop into a "new quality investment bank," emphasizing innovation and high-quality service across the entire investment lifecycle [4]. - CITIC Securities is committed to becoming a "digital investment bank," prioritizing digital transformation and data-driven strategies to meet client needs [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook for 2026 - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Huang Wentao, forecasts 2026 as a year of "dual easing" in fiscal and monetary policies, supporting economic stability and growth [5][6]. - GDP growth is expected to be around 5%, driven by policy support, stable domestic demand, and industrial upgrades [6]. - Huang identifies four key drivers for the A-share and Hong Kong markets: capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrades, which are expected to propel market growth [6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - In the commodities sector, Huang highlights gold as a long-term investment opportunity, driven by geopolitical concerns rather than traditional factors like interest rates [8]. - The recent volatility in gold prices should not deter investors, as the long-term outlook remains positive [8].

Core Viewpoint - The conference organized by CITIC Securities focuses on investment cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia, emphasizing the importance of building a strong financial market and enhancing bilateral relations [2][5]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The 2026 Capital Market Summit and China-Saudi Investment Cooperation Forum was held on November 11, with over 2,500 attendees, marking a significant event in the investment landscape [2]. - The theme of the summit was "Reform and Innovation for a Better Future," attracting entrepreneurs, financiers, and investors from various countries to discuss investment opportunities [2]. Group 2: CITIC Securities' Future Strategy - Liu Cheng, Chairman of CITIC Securities, highlighted the company's mission to contribute to both national and global prosperity, aiming to build a "Value Investment Bank," "New Quality Investment Bank," and "Digital Investment Bank" [3][6]. - The "Value Investment Bank" focuses on enhancing customer value and integrating resources to create tailored products and services [6]. - The "New Quality Investment Bank" aims to support high-quality development through an innovative service platform that covers the entire investment lifecycle [6]. - The "Digital Investment Bank" emphasizes the importance of digital transformation and data-driven strategies to meet customer needs [7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook for 2026 - Huang Wentao, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, predicts that 2026 will be a year of foundational strengthening and comprehensive development, with a focus on innovation and internal demand [9]. - The economic growth forecast for 2026 is around 5%, supported by favorable fiscal and monetary policies [10]. - The "New Four Bulls" in the capital market include capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrade, which are expected to drive the rise of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [10]. - Opportunities in sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy are highlighted as key areas for investment [10]. Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - Huang Wentao emphasized the long-term investment potential of gold, driven by geopolitical factors rather than traditional economic indicators [11]. - The recent volatility in gold prices should not deter investors, as the outlook remains positive for continued upward movement in gold and silver [11].

Core Insights - The 2026 Capital Market Summit and China-Saudi Investment Cooperation Forum was held by CITIC Securities on November 11, highlighting the importance of economic outlook and investment opportunities [1] Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities' chief economist, Huang Wentao, predicts that 2026 will be a year of dual monetary and fiscal easing [1] - A decrease of 50 basis points in the reserve requirement ratio is expected next year [1] - Interest rates are anticipated to decline by approximately 15 basis points, which will play a crucial role in stabilizing growth, employment, and expectations [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's CPI data is lower than expected, opening up room for interest rate cuts, which is likely to lead to strong performance in metal prices [1] - Precious metal prices are expected to remain high due to the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, combined with global geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand [1] - Domestic expectations for policy and infrastructure demand are boosted by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party, with fiscal and monetary policies likely to maintain a dual easing approach, improving macro sentiment that supports basic metals like copper and aluminum [1] Group 2 - The copper sector is benefiting from an increase in both the quantity and price of mined copper, with an improved supply-demand balance leading to significant price elasticity under the resonance of macro and fundamental factors [1] - The Mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects securities related to the development of copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1] - The Mining ETF (561330) has an excess return of over 10% compared to the CSI Non-Ferrous Index, featuring a more concentrated selection of leading companies, with a higher proportion of "gold + copper + rare earths" [1]