美国在4月2日发起了对于全球贸易伙伴的关税战，在美国宣布给台岛加征34%关税之后，台岛民进党当局立即跪了，宣布要通过"零关税"来换取美国放弃对 于台岛的关税战，民进党同时许诺从美国购买大量的商品，也承诺对于美国增加投资等，从而试图通过绥靖政策来换取美国"网开一面"。民进党当局还在吹 嘘自己是和美国进行谈判的一批贸易伙伴，为此会有很好的结果，不过如今已经有让台岛民进党当局玻璃心碎一地的消息，因为中美在经过两天的贸易会谈 之后，已经有了联合声明的发布。 the state and and t and a the state of the the state the state the state t and the state the state the state FOR CONS rely the state all CROS the the state the re the 1000 the the e a er and and and ter the state of the the state the the t and the state the state of the the state the ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.09%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 209 points or 0.47%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.04% [1] - The Pakistani Ministry of Finance expressed optimism regarding the potential outcomes of trade negotiations with the United States [1]

Group 1 - The euro has depreciated over 0.6% against the US dollar, currently at 1.1594 [1] - US President Trump stated that progress has been made in trade negotiations with the EU, but the US has already established tariff letters [1] - During a meeting with UK Prime Minister Starmer, the US and UK will enhance their trade agreement [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the European Union is currently negotiating trade issues with the United States, while South Korea is also seeking to reach an agreement with the U.S. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, trading is challenging, and it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2] - The short - term market may rebound, and risk - takers can consider partial profit - taking when the price surges today. For long - term strategies, take profits when the price rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before determining the next direction [1][3] Summary by Related Contents Shipping Market Information - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; for the US West routes, it was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% from the previous period. On July 4, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period [1] - On July 4, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50% from the previous period; the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% from the previous period [1] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index on July 4 was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [1] Market News - The Trump administration has continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and the spot market has a small price increase to test the market [2] - China and the US are expected to hold consultations on trade issues next month. Houthi has stated that it will attack Israeli ships, and the cease - fire negotiation in Gaza is ongoing, with the market full of mixed long and short information [2] Market Data - On July 9, the main contract 2508 closed at 2012.5, up 1.69%. The trading volume was 25,400 lots, and the open interest was 31,300 lots, a decrease of 3709 lots from the previous day [2] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were recommended to go long on the 2510 contract at below 1300 (with a profit margin of over 100 points). Consider partial profit - taking when the price surges today. For the EC2512 contract, go short lightly above 1650 and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [3] - Long - term strategy: For each contract, take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [3] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Although the US restarts the tariff war, the market has become somewhat insensitive after previous fluctuations in the trade situation. With the release of semi - annual performance forecasts of listed companies, the market is optimistic about their H1 earnings. A series of pro - growth policies are taking effect, and the market expects positive Q2 economic data. The fundamental recovery supports the stock market, and with the approaching July Politburo meeting, market bulls may pre - arrange, pushing the stock market up. It is recommended to make light - position purchases on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2509) was at 3952.8, down 6.4; the IH main contract (2509) was at 2724.0, down 4.8; the IC main contract (2509) was at 5823.4, down 24.6; the IM main contract (2509) was at 6214.0, down 12.2 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Most of the spreads between different contracts declined, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread was 1247.2, down 2.2; the IC - IF monthly contract spread was 1953.0, down 22.6 [2] - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of IF and IH main contracts increased, while that of IC and IM main contracts decreased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 38.6, up 1.3; the IC main contract basis was - 130.1, down 10.3 [2] - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 27,895.00, down 1197.0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.16%. The CSI 300 was at 3991.40, down 7.1; the SSE 50 was at 2739.92, down 7.3; the CSI 500 was at 5953.49, down 24.3; the CSI 1000 was at 6390.47, down 17.2 [2] - **Market Sentiment Indicators**: A - share trading volume was 15,274.20 billion yuan, up 528.08 billion yuan; margin trading balance was 18,649.31 billion yuan, up 55.51 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume was 1676.66 billion yuan, up 309.01 billion yuan [2] 3.3 Industry News - **US Trade Policy**: Trump announced that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and plans to impose tariffs on specific industries including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals. Each BRICS member will soon be subject to a 10% tariff [2] - **US - China Trade Talks**: The US delegation is expected to meet with Chinese officials next month to discuss trade issues [2] - **China's Economic Data**: In June, China's CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year (from a 0.1% decline in the previous period), and fell 0.1% month - on - month (from a 0.2% decline in the previous period); PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year (from a 3.3% decline in the previous period), and fell 0.4% month - on - month (same as the previous period) [2] 3.4 Key Events to Watch - The Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes on July 10 at 2:00 and China's June financial data (to be determined) [3]

Economic Overview - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's economic total has successively surpassed 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan, with an expected reach of approximately 140 trillion yuan this year [1] - In June, the consumer price index increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the producer price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.6% year-on-year [2] Trade and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Commerce has included eight entities from Taiwan, including Hanxiang Aerospace Industrial Co., Ltd., in the export control list [3] - According to reports, the U.S. Commerce Secretary indicated that a U.S. delegation is expected to meet with Chinese officials next month to discuss trade issues [4] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.8%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.74%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index declined by 1.14% [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. delegation is expected to meet with Chinese officials next month to discuss trade issues [1] - The U.S. delegation includes Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bensent, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Non - farm payrolls performed better than expected [2] - Silver: Continued to soar [2] - Copper: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated [2] - Zinc: Traded sideways [2] - Lead: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations [2] - Tin: Driven up by the macro - environment [2] - Nickel: Upside elasticity was limited, and nickel prices were under pressure at low levels [2] - Stainless steel: Inventories were slightly digested, and steel prices recovered but with limited elasticity [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 774.88, down 0.52%, and the night - session closing price was 777.00, up 0.19%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8919, down 0.29%, and the night - session closing price was 8931.00, up 0.16%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed compared with the previous day [5]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Gold inventory remained unchanged at 18,456 kilograms, and Shanghai Silver inventory increased by 2133 kilograms to 1,340,792 kilograms [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity was - 1, and silver trend intensity was 1 [8]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,730, down 1.03%, and the night - session closing price was 79720, down 0.01%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 17,176 to 100,562, and the position decreased by 8,934 to 215,738 [10]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 1,796 tons to 22,307 tons, and LME copper inventory increased by 950 tons to 95,275 tons [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity was 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22410, up 0.38%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 20897 to 153571, and the position increased by 66 to 128000 [13]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 647 tons to 7246 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons to 112325 tons [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity was 0 [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17295, up 0.29%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 10116 to 24330, and the position decreased by 1206 to 51672 [15]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory remained unchanged at 46439 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2625 tons to 263275 tons [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity was 1 [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,420, down 0.04%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 16,735 to 57,264, and the position decreased by 923 to 30,442 [18][19]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 6 tons to 6,882 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons to 2,165 tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity was 0 [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,270, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,730. The trading volume and positions of related contracts changed compared with previous periods [22][23]. - **Industry News**: In March, Ontario, Canada, might stop exporting nickel to the US; in April, the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; an Indonesian nickel smelter resumed production; an Indonesian冷轧厂 planned to continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [23][24][25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity was 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity was 0 [28]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, stated that trade negotiations with the European Union are progressing [1] - The U.S. has leverage in the negotiations with the EU [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin is currently up 0.1%, trading at $108,000, and has shown a W-shaped trend today [1]