那场轰轰烈烈的贸易战，动静那么大，说是为了"让美国再次伟大"。 这还只是城里的感受。 你要是去中西部，去那些一望无际的大豆田里看看，那才叫真的绝望。 以前，那里是美国农民的骄傲。码头上运豆子的货船，排着长队，几乎都是开往中国的。他们是最大的买家，多少农场主就指着这个活呢。 然后，一纸关税令下来，世界变了。 中国那边二话不说，扭头就跟巴西、阿根廷签了大单。人家南美现在忙着扩建港口、新建粮仓，一套完整的供应链，压根就没美国什么事儿了。 美国大豆协会的主席，一个愁眉苦脸的老头，对着记者说，这事儿最可怕的地方在于，就算明天所有关税都取消，失去的市场也回不来了。 人家已经找到了新的朋友，不再需要你了。 可结果呢？你有没有发现，去趟超市，钱包越来越瘪？什么东西都好像悄悄涨了价。 那多出来的一笔钱，有个听起来挺专业的词儿，叫"关税附加费"。 说白了，就是兜兜转转，最后还是普通人自己买了单。这记保护的拳头，没打着别人，反而闷闷地砸在了自己胸口上。 你觉得日子紧了，开小工厂的王老板比你更愁。他那厂子，一堆零件都得从外面进。关税一加，成本呼呼地往上涨。订单呢？少了。没办法，只能 让两个跟着他干了好几年的老师傅先回家歇着。 整个社 ...

最近，加拿大毫不掩饰地对中国电动车出手，突然宣布对来自中国的电动车征收100%的关税，同时还对中国进口的钢铝产品加征25%的关税。这一举措让 很多人感到困惑，显得完全没有任何理由。 这背后到底是什么原因呢？我们从美国的回应中找到了答案。美国对这一行为的支持似乎暗示了加拿大的立场，甚至让人怀疑加拿大是否只是跟着美国的步 伐走。那么，面对这样的局面，中国又该如何应对呢？ 8月26日，加拿大正式宣布了这一决定，对来自中国的电动汽车征收100%的关税，并且对钢铝产品也加大了税收。显然，这项带有"歧视"性质的政策违反了 《1994年GATT协议》的相关规定。更令人质疑的是，加拿大这样做的理由站不住脚，因为中国的电动汽车和钢铝产品并没有对加拿大市场造成严重冲击。 如今，自由贸易趋势日益明显，所谓的"贸易保护主义"显然不再适用。加拿大对此的所谓"预防"措施，看起来更像是没有实质依据的行动。 实际上，双方在未发生"贸易转移"之前应该遵循贸易规定，维护全球市场的稳定。而加拿大所提及的"贸易转移"概念，也显然被他们过度扩展并用来为自己 的行为"辩护"。事实上，这样的行为看起来更像是为了迎合美国的做法。 美国在此前就曾对中国的电动 ...

Core Insights - Private enterprises are increasingly becoming a key force in stabilizing foreign trade due to their flexibility and market sensitivity [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - In August, Shanghai's total imports and exports grew by 11.7% year-on-year, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth since February [1] - Exports exceeded 180 billion yuan for the first time, with a growth rate of 17.1%, while imports reached 204.35 billion yuan, growing by 7.3% [1] - For the first eight months, Shanghai's total imports and exports increased by 4.5%, with the growth rate improving by 1 percentage point compared to the first seven months [1] Group 2: Role of Private Enterprises - In August, the import and export volume of private enterprises in Shanghai surged by 31.5%, maintaining a growth rate above 30% for three consecutive months [1] - The share of private enterprises in Shanghai's total foreign trade rose to 43.1%, surpassing 40% for the first time, contributing 11.5 percentage points to the city's overall trade growth [1] Group 3: Market Diversification - Exports to emerging markets such as Africa, ASEAN, the Middle East, and India grew by 45% in August, contributing 10.7 percentage points to the overall export growth [1] - Notable export performance was observed in shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment, which grew by 10.6 times, and engineering machinery, which increased by 72.8%, together driving a 16.5 percentage point increase in exports to these emerging markets [1] Group 4: High-End Manufacturing and Imports - In August, the export of electromechanical products grew by 19%, accounting for nearly 70% of the total export value, with significant growth in shipbuilding and high-end machine tools at 45.1% and 43.7% respectively [2] - The export of "new three samples" including electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products saw growth rates of 37.1%, 112.1%, and 39% respectively [2] - Imports of raw materials such as metal ores and copper products increased by 15% and 21% respectively, driven by stable industrial and consumer demand [2] - The import of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and computer accessories surged by 105.5% and 55.2% respectively, supported by the development of the integrated circuit and artificial intelligence industries [2] - Consumption-related policies have led to significant growth in imports of consumer goods, with beef, milk powder, perfume, and sports equipment increasing by 10.5%, 43.2%, 29.4%, and 35.8% respectively [2]

Group 1 - The shift in China's economy towards services is seen as a strategic response to tariffs impacting manufacturing and exports, as services provide a greater jobs multiplier effect [1] - The US has a significant trade deficit in goods but maintains a strong trade surplus in services, indicating a potential loss of competitiveness in services due to tariffs on goods [2] - China is diversifying its exports beyond low-value manufactured goods to include high-tech products, talent, capital, culture, and food, which helps mitigate tariff impacts [4][5] Group 2 - China's exposure to US domestic demand is relatively small, allowing for effective diversification and strengthening in the services sector, as evidenced by Singapore's services sector contributing over 70% to its GDP [6] - The services sector is closely linked to the manufacturing sector, where a downturn in manufacturing can still affect services, albeit to a lesser extent [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of a 90-day suspension of the 24% tariffs on Chinese goods by both the US and China, which is seen as a positive step towards stabilizing the macroeconomic environment [1][3] - The US and China are expected to engage in further discussions on issues such as fentanyl tariffs, export controls, and reducing the trade deficit during this 90-day period [3] - Despite the challenges posed by high tariffs, China's exports showed resilience, with a 7.2% year-on-year increase in July, although exports to the US fell by 21.7% [5][6] Group 2 - The bilateral trade between the US and China is projected to exceed $680 billion in 2024, highlighting the significance of their economic relationship [3] - Analysts suggest that the upcoming months may see new policies from China to counteract the impact of US tariffs, including fiscal stimulus and monetary easing [6] - The trade shift phenomenon is becoming prominent in China's exports, helping to stabilize foreign trade amid high tariffs from the US [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the acceleration of regional integration cooperation in response to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, with China's foreign trade data exceeding expectations amid these changes [1][2]. Trade Performance - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, marking a 3.5% year-on-year increase, with exports growing by 7.3% and imports declining by 1.6% [1]. - In July, China's imports and exports grew by 6.7% and 8% respectively, with imports increasing by 4.8%, marking two consecutive months of growth [1]. Export Dynamics - The "export grabbing" and "transit export" effects are driving the acceleration in July's export growth, as companies rush to ship goods before the end of the 90-day tariff transition period [2][3]. - China's exports to the U.S. fell by 21.7% year-on-year in July, a decline that impacted overall export growth by 3.3 percentage points [2]. Trade Diversification - China's exports to the EU, South Korea, and Taiwan saw significant growth in July, with increases of 9.2%, 4.6%, and 19.2% respectively, indicating a shift towards diversified markets [3][4]. - Exports to ASEAN countries maintained a high growth rate of 16.6%, which helped offset the decline in U.S. exports and supported overall export growth [3]. Trade with Belt and Road Countries - Trade with Belt and Road countries grew by 5.5%, with exports to these nations accounting for about half of China's total exports [4]. - In the first seven months, exports to India and Africa increased by 13.4% and 24.5% respectively, showcasing the effectiveness of China's Belt and Road Initiative in mitigating external shocks [4]. Impact of U.S. Tariffs - Starting August 7, the U.S. imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various countries, leading to a halt in "transit" business for many Chinese companies as they await clarity on future tariff policies [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs is prompting companies to consider long-term capacity planning and internationalization strategies [5]. Industry Trends - In the first seven months, general trade grew by 2.1%, while processing trade increased by 6.3%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [6]. - The textile and apparel sector saw a cumulative export growth of 0.6%, while high-tech products like integrated circuits grew by 20.5%, reflecting a trend towards higher value-added exports [7]. Future Outlook - Experts predict a potential decline in export growth in August due to the impact of high U.S. tariffs on global trade, with expectations for targeted financial support for struggling foreign trade enterprises [7][8]. - The IMF has raised its global economic growth forecast slightly, but ongoing trade policy uncertainty poses risks to economic stability [8].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) reports that increased competition from Chinese manufacturers has led to significant job losses in the Eurozone, with an estimated 240,000 jobs lost or shifted to lower-risk sectors from 2015 to 2022 [2] - The automotive and chemical industries are particularly vulnerable, with job vacancies in the automotive sector expected to decline by 55% and in the chemical sector by 95% from 2019 to 2024 [2] - The ECB warns that rising U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports may intensify competition, prompting Chinese companies to seek new markets, including Europe, which could further challenge local manufacturers [2] Group 2 - Industries most affected by Chinese competition employ approximately 29 million workers, accounting for about 27% of total employment in the Eurozone by 2024 [3] - Despite the competitive threat, the Eurozone's unemployment rate has remained at historical lows, with a rate of 6.2% recorded for three consecutive months as of June [3] - EU leaders expressed disappointment over the influx of cheap Chinese products during recent meetings, indicating potential market access restrictions for Chinese companies if concerns are not addressed [3]

Core Viewpoint - In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year in USD terms, accelerating from June's growth, driven by a shift in export focus towards non-US regions due to fluctuating US tariff policies [1][3][5]. Export Performance - China's exports to the US fell by 21.7% year-on-year, a decline that widened by 5.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [5]. - Exports to the EU grew by 9.2%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [5]. - Exports to ASEAN countries rose by 16.6%, with notable growth rates to Vietnam (27.9%), Indonesia (12.0%), and the Philippines (10.7%) [5]. - Exports to South Korea increased by 4.6%, recovering from a decline of 6.7% in the previous month [5]. Trade Dynamics - The "rush to export" and "transshipment" effects were significant contributors to the export growth in July, as companies sought to mitigate the impact of US tariffs [3][5]. - The proportion of exports to Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 50.5%, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% from January to July [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict increased uncertainty in the export environment for the second half of the year, with potential gradual declines in export growth [7]. - The recent drop in import growth for processing trade from 16.9% to 9.8% in July indicates potential downward pressure on future exports [7]. - The US's consideration of new tariffs on sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals could further disrupt global trade [7][8]. Economic Context - The current average tariff rate imposed by the US on Chinese goods is estimated at 40.4%, while Southeast Asian countries face tariffs between 19% and 20% [8]. - The US has announced a 40% transshipment tax for countries circumventing tariffs through third-party routes, increasing pressure on China's transshipment trade [8]. - Some analysts argue that China's strong export performance over the past three quarters is not solely due to "rush to export" but also reflects a recovery in global consumption and rising overseas inventory demand [8][9].

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of around 5% [1] - The manufacturing sector showed significant support, with industrial added value increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.5% [4][5] - Exports demonstrated resilience, with a total trade surplus of $586 billion, marking a 34.7% year-on-year increase [5] External Trade Dynamics - The trade environment is influenced by U.S. tariff policies, with potential risks of export decline in the second half due to demand exhaustion and new tariffs [1][7] - China expanded its trade partnerships, with exports to emerging markets like Africa and ASEAN showing significant growth, indicating a strategy to mitigate external risks [6] Consumer Spending and Income - Despite a 5.3% increase in disposable income, consumer spending potential remains underutilized due to economic transformation and real estate market adjustments [8][9] - Recommendations include enhancing domestic circulation, increasing residents' income, and prioritizing consumer spending in fiscal policies [9][10] Investment Outlook - Investment dynamics are expected to weaken, particularly in manufacturing and real estate, with private investment growth remaining low [13][14] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to maintain resilience, supported by special bonds and policy financing [13] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - There is room for interest rate cuts and a need for proactive fiscal policies to support economic stability and growth [15][16] - The focus should be on fiscal expansion through special bonds and targeted financial tools to stimulate effective investment [16]

Export Performance - In June 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, a rise of 1 percentage point compared to May[3] - Exports to the US fell by 16.1% year-on-year in June, but the decline narrowed by 18.4 percentage points from the previous month, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to overall export growth[4] - For the first half of 2025, China's exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year, an acceleration of 2.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year[6] Import Trends - In June 2025, imports rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with a 4.5 percentage point increase from May[7] - Imports from the US decreased by 15.5% year-on-year in June, with the decline narrowing by 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Cumulatively, imports in the first half of 2025 fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a slowdown of 6.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year[10] Market Dynamics - The reduction in US tariffs following the Geneva talks in May has led to a significant recovery in exports to the US, although tariffs remain high at approximately 41.3%[4] - The "temporary suspension" of global tariffs by the US has allowed Chinese companies to continue exporting to markets outside the US, with exports to ASEAN growing by 16.8% year-on-year in June[4] - The overall trade environment remains volatile, with expectations of a decline in export growth to around 1.0% in July due to ongoing high tariffs and weakening external demand[6]