请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 软商品日报 二、日度数据监测 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，ICE 美棉下跌 0.7%，报收 63.94 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.52%，报收 13485 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 11574 手至 55.34 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14320 元/吨，较前一日上涨 40 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍是市场近期关 | | | | 注重点。美联储议息会议纪要公布。部分参与者认为 12 月不应该降息。美元指数 | | | 棉花 | 推升至 100 以上。关注非农就业数据指引。国内市场方面，郑棉整体仍维持震荡 | | | | 走势，昨日仓单数量减少 900 张。当前宏观层面相对真空期，市场关注更多在于 | | | | 基本面。短期看供应压力是市场无法忽视的问题，棉花商业库存也在快速增加， | | | | 而且供应高峰期仍将持续一定 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.7% to 64.65 cents/pound on Monday, and CF601 rose 0.11% to 13,565 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 5,622 lots to 585,300 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,565 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The macro - level is the focus recently, with the weakening of the U.S. dollar index and the continuous decline of the gold price. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25BP in October, and positive news from Sino - U.S. trade consultations support the U.S. cotton price. Due to the U.S. government shutdown, data is lacking. In the domestic market, it is the peak supply season of new cotton, with large supply pressure limiting the upside of cotton prices. The demand is relatively stable. As time passes, the supply pressure will ease, and the supply - demand pattern will reverse, making the upward drive of cotton futures prices stronger. In the short term, it should be treated as a firm oscillation. [1] - **Sugar**: As of September 30, India's cumulative monsoon rainfall was 937.2 mm, 8% higher than the long - term average, the wettest in the past five years. The NFCSF expects India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season to reach 34.9 million tons, a 19% year - on - year increase. The spot prices of sugar in some regions decreased. Due to concerns about sufficient supply, the raw sugar price broke through the support level and fell to a five - year low. The domestic futures price is supported by cost and hovers above 5,400 yuan/ton. It should be treated with an oscillation mindset, and selling call options can be considered. [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 10, down 10; the main basis was 1,268, up 5. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,690 yuan/ton, up 34, and the national spot price was 14,833 yuan/ton, up 30. [2] - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 45, down 4; the main basis was 305, up 1. The spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were both 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 27, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,488, down 15 from the previous trading day, with 769 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.3, down 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.9, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.8, up 0.1. [3] - **Sugar**: On October 27, the spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,795, down 390 from the previous trading day, with 586 valid forecasts. [3][4] 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides various charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts of their main contracts, showing historical data trends from 2021 - 2025. [6][14]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton and sugar are both "Oscillation" [2] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.44% to 64.02 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.26% to 13,575 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 6,744 lots to 599,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,575 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan from the previous day. There are still macro - level disturbances in the international market, and the U.S. dollar index has large fluctuations. In the domestic market, the recent rise in the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is due to macro - level good news and different views on the increase in domestic new cotton production in the 2025/26 season. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang has also increased slightly. In the short term, the kinetic energy for Zhengzhou cotton to break through the range oscillation is still relatively weak, with supply increments and hedging pressure above and cost and expectations as support below. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space may be limited [2] - For sugar, the spot quotes of Guangxi and some processing sugar groups have decreased. Raw sugar is testing the support at 15 cents per pound. Domestic terminals are in a wait - and - see state and purchase as needed. Spot prices are reducing inventory through price cuts. Weather in the next month is crucial for sugar accumulation, and the market will focus on the game of the deviation of the production increase expectation. In the short term, cost support is emerging, and it should be treated with an oscillation mindset [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread is - 25, up 15; the main basis is 1,209, down 28. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,652 yuan per ton, up 9, and the national spot price is 14,784 yuan per ton, up 12 [3] - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 38, down 8; the main basis is 303, down 41. The spot price in Nanning is 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou is 5,760 yuan per ton, down 10 [3] Market Information - On October 23, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,526, down 39 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 482 [4] - On October 23, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 14,652 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,794 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,806 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,935 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4] - On October 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.4, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26, down 0.2. The comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 51.9, down 0.1, and the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 29.6, unchanged [4] - On October 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,770 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5,760 yuan per ton, down 10 [4] - On October 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8,196, down 117 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [5]

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉下跌 1.2%，报收 63.65 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.3%，报收 13535 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 417 手至 59.3 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14560 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 30 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面扰动仍存，国际市场消 | | | | 息不断，特朗普发言扰动市场情绪，美元指数振幅扩大，美棉期价重心下移。国内 | | | | 市场方面，近期郑棉期价重心持续上移，我们认为主要有以下三方面影响，第一， | | | | 市场对 2025/26 年度国内棉花产量涨幅有不同声音；第二，近期南疆地区新棉收购 | | | | 价格重心略有上移，大约在 6.2-6.3 元/公斤左右；第三，国内三季度经济数据表 | | | | 现良好，重磅会议召开，市场情绪提振。展望未来，我们认为短期郑棉仍难破震荡 | | | | 区间，上有短期供应、套保压力，下有成本、预期等方面支撑，关注正在召开的重 | | | | 磅会议及籽棉收购成本。 | ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 10 月 22 日） | 品种 | 合约价差 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力基差 | 环比 | 现货 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 1-5 | -65 | -10 | 1188 | -26 | 新疆 | 14586 | 34 | | | | | | | | 全国 | 14728 | 49 | | 白糖 | 1-5 | 40 | 1 | 342 | -10 | 南宁 | 5770 | 0 | | | | | | | | 柳州 | 5780 | 0 | 三、市场信息 1、10 月 21 日棉花期货仓单数量 2579 张，较上一交易日下降 19 张，有效预报 263 张。 2、10 月 21 日国内各地区棉花到厂价：新疆 14586 元/吨，河南 14755 元/吨，山东 14753 元/吨， 浙江 14913 元/吨。 3、10 月 21 日纱线综合负荷为 51.4，较前一日持平；纱线综合库存为 26.2，较前一日持平；短纤 布综合负荷为 52，较前一 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 巴西供应预期增加，白糖盘整 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-10-22 报告内容摘要: 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 8376.0 张，涨跌幅为-0.37%；郑棉仓单 2579.0 张， 涨跌幅为-0.73%。 结论： 策略建议：观望为主 风险提示：全球贸易前景不明 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 白糖：8 月份内蒙古降雨偏多，不利于甜菜糖分积累及起收，糖厂开机时间 推迟，对甜菜糖产量 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.03% to 63.78 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.49% to 13,320 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 5,766 lots to 586,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,420 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. In the international market, the overall driving force of U.S. cotton is limited recently, and the data is still in a relatively vacuum period due to the U.S. government shutdown. In the short term, U.S. cotton prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock. In the domestic market, the focus is on new cotton. The supply pressure has increased during the new cotton listing period, and the new cotton volume this year has reached a 10 - year high with an earlier listing progress. There is a short - term mismatch between supply and demand, but the supply - demand pattern of cotton in China, the U.S., and the world has narrowed compared to the previous year. After the supply pressure eases, cotton prices may improve. Overall, the upward pressure on Zhengzhou cotton remains in the short term [1]. - For sugar, in the second half of September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil reached 3.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%. The sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was 51.17%, lower than the 53.49% in the first half of September. The cumulative sugar production as of September reached 33.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. Although the cumulative production has continued to rise year - on - year, the decline in the sugar - making ratio has temporarily alleviated market concerns, but the futures price rebound is weak due to over - production. In the domestic market, the spot price has been continuously lowered, and the cost support has gradually emerged after the futures price fell to 5,400 yuan per ton. Before the raw sugar makes a new breakthrough, the domestic market is expected to fluctuate, waiting for the import data in September and the estimated production of the new sugar - crushing season [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE U.S. cotton and CF601 prices changed on Thursday. The position of the main contract increased. The international market has limited driving force and data vacuum. The domestic new cotton supply pressure is high in the short term, but the annual supply - demand pattern has narrowed. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton has upward pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production data shows an increase in production and a decline in the sugar - making ratio. The domestic spot price is lowered, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 55, up 5; the main contract basis was 1344, down 60. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,510 yuan per ton, down 3, and the national average was 14,664 yuan per ton, down 10 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 35, up 6; the main contract basis was 372, down 15. The spot price in Nanning was 5,790 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 10 [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 16, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 49 to 2,724, with 112 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load and inventory, and short - fiber cloth comprehensive load and inventory data were also provided [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 16, the spot price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,790 yuan per ton, and in Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan to 5,780 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,438, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China cotton price index of the cotton main contract over different time periods [6][8][9][10][11][12]. - **Sugar**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of the sugar main contract over different time periods [14][15][17]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 10 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.5%，报收 63.83 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.11%，报收 13270 | 承压运 行 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 12867 手至 58.09 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14400 元/吨，较前一日下降 25 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍是市场关 | | | | 注重点，美对外关税政策、相关官员对外发言等。目前美国政府依旧处于停摆状 | | | | 态，何时恢复尚未可知，数据真空期，市场缺乏锚点，美元指数略偏弱，美棉期价 | | | | 重心小幅上移，预计短期仍处低位震荡状态。国内市场方面，虽然近期市场情绪稍 | | | | 有反复，但对棉价影响有限，市场关注重心仍更多在于新棉方面。国内新棉上市 | | | | 期，不仅本年度新棉总量创下 10 年新高，而且本年度新棉上市进度也较往年同期 | | | | 有所提前，短期供应压力与需求端存在阶段性不匹配 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to operate under pressure in the short - term. Internationally, the market focus is on the macro - level, with the US dollar index strongly oscillating above 99, pressuring the US cotton price. Domestically, there is a strong expectation of a new cotton harvest this year, and the supply pressure will persist for a long time [1]. - Sugar is expected to continue to show a weak oscillation, following the trend of raw sugar. The market is short of drivers after the sharp decline, and it awaits the crushing data of the second half of September in the central - southern region of Brazil [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE US cotton fell 0.47% to 63.54 cents per pound, CF601 decreased 0.41% to 13,300 yuan per ton, and the main contract positions increased by 8,508 to 563,400 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,450 yuan per ton, down 45 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Sugar**: An investigation shows that the expected cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September is 40.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and the expected sugar production is 3.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The US market tumbled by over 3%, and the domestic market also declined after the overnight opening [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 60, down 10; the main basis was 1489, up 57; the Xinjiang spot price was 14,642, up 12, and the national spot price was 14,789, up 14 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 30, down 2; the main basis was 350, up 26; the Nanning spot price was 5800, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5820, down 15 [2]. Market Information - On October 13, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,867, down 75 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 31 [3]. - On October 13, the arrival prices of cotton in various domestic regions were: 14,642 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,871 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,802 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,957 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On October 13, the comprehensive yarn load was 50.6, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 26.1, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 51.9, up 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 29.3, up 0.1 from the previous day [3]. - On October 13, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5800 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Liuzhou it was 5820 yuan per ton, down 15 from the previous day [3]. - On October 13, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8,681, down 186 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia on sugar beet production and the growth recovery of sugarcane after typhoon damage in Guangdong and Guangxi need further attention. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3] - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support as the cotton textile peak season is approaching. The cotton growth period has suitable meteorological conditions, and the picking progress in Xinjiang is 24.9% as of October 6, with the price expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,650.0 yuan [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.1 with a change of 0.00%. US cotton closed at 63.77 with a change of 0.00% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support as the cotton textile peak season is approaching [1] Inventory Warrants - Zhengzhou sugar warrants are 8,867.0 with a change of 0.00%; Zhengzhou cotton warrants are 2,942.0 with a change of 0.00% [2] Data Quick View Outer Market Quotes - US sugar was 16.1 on October 11 and 16.1 on October 12, with a change of 0.00%. US cotton was 63.77 on October 11 and 63.77 on October 12, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning sugar was 5,800.0 on October 10 and 5,800.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00%. Kunming sugar was 5,820.0 on October 10 and 5,810.0 on October 11, with a change of - 0.17%. Cotton Index 328 was 3,281 on October 10 and 3,280 on October 11, with a change of 0.12%. Xinjiang cotton was 14,750.0 on October 10 and 14,650.0 on October 11, with a change of - 0.68% [4] Spread Quick View - All spreads and basis for sugar and cotton contracts from October 11 to October 12 had a change of 0.00% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA was 76.05 on October 10 and 76.05 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Space - Sugar import profit was 1,459.0 on October 10 and 1,459.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - For SR601C5500, the implied volatility was 0.0827, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 was 6.63. For SR601P5500, the implied volatility was 0.0789. For CF601C13400, the implied volatility was 0.0917, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 was 7.76. For CF601P13400, the implied volatility was 0.0935 [4] Inventory Warrants - Sugar warrants were 8,867.0 on October 10 and 8,867.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00%. Cotton warrants were 2,942.0 on October 10 and 2,942.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, rainfall in Inner Mongolia was excessive, which was not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the sugar factory start - up time was postponed. The impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. In late September and early October, sugarcane in major producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, and the post - disaster growth recovery needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, and the yield and quality in some areas were higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] Strategy Suggestion - Wait and see mainly [3]