北京时间9月18日凌晨，美国联邦储备系统(以下简称"美联储")宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以来首次降息。 对于美联储的降息节奏，美国政府早有不满。美国总统特朗普多次在社交平台上批评美联储降息太 慢、力度太小，常挂在他嘴边的理由是"美国不存在通胀"。 在今年8月举行的全球央行年会上，一直对降息持谨慎态度的美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储开 始"将对就业的忧虑置于通胀之上"，被各界视为重要的政策转向信号。从中不难发现，从美国政府到投 资者都认为，通过通胀和就业两大指标评估美联储利率政策理所当然。其背后的逻辑是，通胀和就业共 同支撑起了美联储的政策框架。 不过，这一政策框架并不是从一开始就设计好的，而是在漫长的实践中逐步形成的。 1979年，沃尔克接手美联储时，美国通胀率已经飙升至13%。为应对这一困境，沃尔克采取了大幅 加息的超预期政策——将联邦基金利率一度提高到超20%。这一举措代价巨大，贷款骤减、投资停滞， 美国经济很快陷入深度衰退，失业率一度超过10%。面对席卷全国的抗议浪潮，沃尔克顶住压力，坚持 高利率政策，最终成功遏制了通胀。此举奠定了 ...

然而，1929年经济大萧条爆发，美联储未能有效遏制经济崩溃。这使得美国政府意识到，美联储的功能 存在明显局限，仅仅将其视作"最后贷款人"是不够的，需要通过立法使其在货币和信贷调控中发挥更大 作用。经过一系列改革，联邦公开市场委员会成立，标志着美联储有了在全国范围内统一调控货币政策 的权力。 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美国联邦储备系统（以下简称"美联储"）宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25 个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以来首次降息。 对于美联储的降息节奏，美国政府早有不满。美国总统特朗普多次在社交平台上批评美联储降息太慢、 力度太小，常挂在他嘴边的理由是"美国不存在通胀"。 在今年8月举行的全球央行年会上，一直对降息持谨慎态度的美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储开始"将对 就业的忧虑置于通胀之上"，被各界视为重要的政策转向信号。从中不难发现，从美国政府到投资者都 认为，通过通胀和就业两大指标评估美联储利率政策理所当然。其背后的逻辑是，通胀和就业共同支撑 起了美联储的政策框架。 不过，这一政策框架并不是从一开始就设计好的，而是在漫长的实践中逐步形成的。 20世纪初，美国银行体系频繁遭遇 ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞 联系人 | 陈达飞 摘要 上世纪90年代末以来，日本经济陷入"通缩二十年"，日央行因此成了前沿货币政策的"实验室"。"制造通胀"逐渐成为日央行 货币政策的优先事项。 一、日央行70年：政策框架的演变及经济解释 在日本经济发展的不同阶段，主次矛盾各有不同，金融市场与货币政策框架也会随之而变： 1955-1970年，经济高速发展与金融抑制并存，货币金融政策最典型的特征是强监管，具体表现为：资本管制+固定汇率+数 量目标+利率管制 。日本央行采用的是 数量型货币政策框架 ：中介目标是银行信贷或货币供给增速等数量型指标，窗口指 导则是主要的操作方式。 1971-1990年，经济增速放缓和金融自由化。本阶段，日本经济和金融的方方面面均表现出典型的"转轨"特征 ，第一阶段强 监管的4个特征均持续弱化。日央行政策框架渐进从数量型转向价格型（但仍以数量为主）。无抵押隔夜拆借利率于1985年 设立，90年代成为操作目标。 后地产泡沫时代，日本经济逐步滑向长期通缩陷阱，日央行非常规货币政策实验进入"无人区" 。1999年2月，政策利率降至 零，经历一次短暂、失败的加息后，日央行于2001年3月开启量化宽松政 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞 联系人 | 陈达飞 摘要 日央行已全面启动非常规货币政策的正常化进程，这次能否"全身而退"？如果顺利，日央行加息和缩表 的终点在哪里？对日债利率（曲线）、日元汇率和经济会产生什么影响？ 一、日央行非常规政策的演进脉络与传导机制 自1999年实施零利率以来，日央行在非常规货币政策方面的"实验"一直引领前沿。 本节从价格、数量和 质量三个维度梳理其演化路径： （1）利率主要指政策利率，即无担保隔夜拆借利率；（2）数量指准备 金规模；（3）质量指风险溢价，泛指整个收益率曲线。 1999年零利率政策仅涵盖利率维度；2001年量化宽松政策（QEP）包含了利率、数量和质量三个维度， 但质量当中仅包含期限溢价，未包含风险溢价；2010年全面货币宽松（CME）也包含了3个维度，但质量 维度中更关注风险溢价；2013年以来的 "QQE+"政策在利率、数量和质量三个维度中都突破了此前政策 的边界。 根据费雪方程，宽松货币政策的效果将表现为实际利率（曲线）的下移，且只有当其低于自然利率（曲 线）时，才称得上实质性宽松，从而有助于金融条件的改善和经济复苏。随着产出缺口的弥合，通胀 ...

Group 1 - Hedge funds have net bought Chinese stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards China [1] - Morgan Stanley's chief strategist for China believes the recent A-share rally is driven by improved liquidity, with funds moving from bonds and deposits to the stock market [1] - HSBC has raised its year-end target for the Shanghai Composite Index to 4000 points, citing abundant domestic liquidity and a potential 5% to 7% upside [1] Group 2 - Barclays and Societe Generale predict the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, influenced by Chairman Powell's shift in tone regarding employment risks [2] - Bank of America suggests that if the dollar weakens and the UK economy improves, the British pound could strengthen, with a forecast of GBP/USD reaching 1.45 in Q4 [2] Group 3 - Canadian dollar is under pressure due to trade uncertainties and expectations of further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, with the currency hitting a three-month low [3] - Citigroup expects the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to reach 4.10% by year-end, maintaining confidence in its long-term predictions [4] Group 4 - CITIC Securities anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, as Powell's comments align with their expectations [6] - China International Capital Corporation estimates that potential funds from household deposits entering the market could range from 5 to 7 trillion yuan [6] Group 5 - Huatai Securities indicates that the current economic conditions suggest a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with two additional cuts likely in Q4 [7] - China Merchants Macro reports that the Producer Price Index (PPI) likely bottomed out in June-July, with expectations for a rebound driven by global inventory cycles and oil prices [8] Group 6 - China Merchants Strategy recommends focusing on the entire rare earth sector, especially smaller companies, following new regulations that allow more firms to obtain mining quotas [9] - CITIC Securities notes that the current market rally is primarily driven by institutional investors rather than retail, emphasizing the importance of industry trends and performance [10] Group 7 - Huatai Securities maintains that coal prices are likely to remain supported due to high demand and supply constraints, suggesting a focus on companies with stable cash flows and high dividends [8] - Guotai Junan expects the Asian metallurgical coal market to continue recovering in Q3 2025, supported by inventory replenishment in India and potential rebounds in China [9] Group 8 - China Merchants Macro identifies September as a potential observation window for the appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which could lead to a comprehensive revaluation of Chinese assets [17][18] - The report suggests that if the yuan returns to the 6 range, it would enhance the attractiveness of Chinese equities, particularly in consumer sectors [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a strong performance in the gold industry stocks, particularly driven by the recent comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts and a flexible inflation targeting framework [2][3] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) saw significant gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (up 8.56%), Hunan Silver (up 7.14%), and Zijin Mining (up 5.54%) [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts and the prevailing economic conditions are seen as supportive factors for gold prices, with analysts suggesting that the market may experience upward momentum rather than downward [2] Group 2 - The Northeast Securities analysis indicates that low volatility and economic weakness combined with rising inflation and potential rate cuts create a favorable environment for gold prices to rise [2] - The article emphasizes that the largest gold stock ETF (517520) serves as an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the gold sector, allowing them to capture the benefits of rising gold prices and share in the growth of quality gold mining companies [3] - The investment in the Yongying Gold Stock ETF and its linked funds (A class: 020411 / C class: 020412) is presented as a strategy to effectively diversify individual stock risks while participating in the overall gold industry [3]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential adjustment in monetary policy due to changing risk balances, suggesting a possible interest rate cut in September [1][2] - Following Powell's remarks, market expectations shifted significantly, with an estimated 85% probability of a rate cut in September according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [2] - Financial markets reacted positively, with major U.S. stock indices rising and U.S. Treasury yields falling sharply after Powell's speech [2] Group 2 - Powell's speech highlighted internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing and necessity of a rate cut, with some officials calling for more data before making a decision [3] - Political pressures from President Trump, who has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's current stance on interest rates, add complexity to the Fed's decision-making process [3][4] - The Fed's future monetary policy path remains uncertain, as Powell emphasized that decisions will be based on data assessments rather than preset paths, indicating a reliance on upcoming economic indicators [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The analysis primarily focuses on the U.S. economy, particularly the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the financial markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Non-Farm Employment Data Adjustments**: The Q1 2025 QCEW calibration data will likely lead to downward revisions in non-farm employment numbers, similar to the 818,000 downward adjustment made in 2024, which ultimately revised to 589,000 [1][3] 2. **Upcoming Economic Data Releases**: Key economic indicators such as PPI, CPI, and retail sales data will be released in September, which are crucial for assessing inflation and predicting Q3 GDP performance [1][3] 3. **Federal Reserve's FOMC Meeting**: The FOMC meeting on September 18 will be pivotal in determining interest rate decisions, with a focus on the divergence between actual values and expected medians [1][3] 4. **Market Volatility in August and September**: Historically, these months are characterized by high volatility and poor stock performance, necessitating caution regarding tightening dollar liquidity and deteriorating financial conditions [1][6] 5. **Uncertainty in Rate Cut Expectations**: Current uncertainties surrounding rate cut expectations are heightened due to poor quality and volatility in employment and inflation data [1][12] 6. **Potential Hawkish Rate Cuts**: If non-farm employment data underperforms while inflation exceeds expectations, the Fed may implement a symbolic rate cut while maintaining a tight overall financial environment [1][14][15] 7. **Impact of Political Dynamics**: The complexity of monetary policy is exacerbated by political pressures, which must be considered alongside economic fundamentals [2][24] 8. **Discrepancies in Fed Members' Views**: There are notable divisions among Fed members regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, influenced by political appointments and pressures [26] 9. **Globalization's Effect on Inflation**: The decoupling of supply chains due to trade wars may lead to slight upward pressure on inflation, contrasting with previous years when globalization helped suppress it [21][22] 10. **Challenges in the U.S. Labor Market**: The labor market faces challenges such as immigration issues and structural changes due to AI, which could influence future Fed policy decisions [20] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context of Market Performance**: The analysis highlights that August and September have historically been poor months for U.S. equities, often due to liquidity issues and financial conditions tightening [6][10] 2. **Market Reactions to Economic Data**: The market's response to economic data releases is critical, as deviations from expectations can significantly influence capital market trends [5][27] 3. **Cryptocurrency's Threat to Traditional Banking**: The rise of cryptocurrencies poses a potential threat to traditional banking systems, which could alter the landscape of financial intermediation [30][31] 4. **Commodity Market Dynamics**: The commodity market is experiencing mixed signals, particularly in oil, indicating potential volatility and investment opportunities [33]

Group 1 - The article highlights a rebound in manufacturing PMIs for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating a recovery in overseas manufacturing demand, potentially linked to reduced tariff uncertainties [64][61] - The US expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives, affecting 407 product categories with a 50% tariff, impacting approximately $138 billion in imports [42][48] - The article notes that the S&P 500 and other developed market indices saw increases, while emerging markets showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 rising by 2.0% [2][3] Group 2 - The article reports that the US 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 7.0 basis points to 4.3%, while emerging market yields generally increased, particularly in Turkey, which rose by 208.0 basis points to 31.3% [16][18] - The article mentions that commodity prices mostly declined, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.4% to $63.7 per barrel, while coking coal fell by 5.5% to 1162 yuan per ton [32][37] - The article indicates that the US fiscal deficit for 2025 reached $1.1 trillion, with total expenditures of $5.19 trillion and total revenues of $3.21 trillion [48] Group 3 - The article discusses the dovish stance taken by Federal Reserve Chair Powell during the Jackson Hole meeting, suggesting a potential adjustment in policy due to risks in the labor market [57][59] - The article notes that the US initial jobless claims exceeded market expectations, with 235,000 claims reported, indicating potential labor market weaknesses [68] - The article highlights that the Eurozone and US manufacturing sectors are experiencing inflationary pressures, with the US manufacturing PMI price component continuing to rise [64][61]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that current conditions suggest a downside risk to employment growth, which may require policy adjustments [1] - Powell expressed an openness to interest rate cuts in the coming months, despite existing inflationary pressures [2] - The labor market and economic growth have shown significant slowdown, prompting a cautious reassessment of the Fed's policy stance [2] Group 2 - Powell highlighted that tariffs have raised prices on certain goods, with July's core PCE price index rising 2.9% year-on-year [2] - The Fed's interest rate levels are now closer to "neutral" compared to last year, and future evaluations will focus on preventing temporary price increases from leading to long-term inflation [2] - The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining a 2% inflation target to ensure long-term expectations remain stable [2]