金价走势

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美元与非美货币震荡,金价持续走弱,会进一步下跌吗?需达到什么条件才能反弹?点击查看详细分析!
news flash· 2025-07-09 05:36
黄金趋势下行,还能长期看涨吗? 相关链接 美元与非美货币震荡,金价持续走弱,会进一步下跌吗?需达到什么条件才能反弹?点击查看详细分 析! ...
贵金属周报:非农高于预期,金价承压-20250707
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 14:14
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3035632 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 7 月 7 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 非农高于预期,金价承压 核心观点 上周金价触底回升,纽约金重返 3350 美元关口,沪金拉升至 775 元上方。美国关税预期升温叠加降息预期升温,导致美元指数持续下 挫,推动金价上行。随着美国非农就业数据高于市场预期,美联储降 息预期下降,年内降息 3 次的概率下降明显,金价承压运行。持续关 注 7 月 9 日后美国新的关税政策,目前预期较好,越南和印度的关税 谈判已有所进展。预计金价或持续承压。 拉长周期看,二季度以来,金价维持高位震荡 ...
赵兴言:黄金周初跳水折损多单!晚间3300再多一次!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-07 13:57
由于美元走强,投资者在等待关税最后期限前的贸易细节之际,金价周一下跌至近一周低点。我们看到 金价小幅回调,原因是短期美元走强,这可能是因为美国公布的经济数据依然相当强劲,削弱了立即降 息的迫切性。上周数据显示,美国6月就业增长出乎意料地强劲。此外,市场对关税引发的通胀担忧, 令美联储降息预期放缓。 黄金今天开盘就延续下跌,早盘第一波直接跌至3306一线,而晚间更是跌至3295一线,也是让我们早间 的第一轮多单遗憾扫损,那么今晚来说兴言还是继续看涨的,目前的话小时线一直横盘在3300的整数关 口附近,当前来说还是有些纠结了,只能说多空都有概率,只是当前来看空头像是更强一些,因为走势 上目前回调走势受一条次级下行趋势线限制。 所以空头可能继续依托该趋势线推动金价刷新低点,而多头则会关注趋势线上破后的机会,若突破则有 望拉升至下一目标3438水平。目前来说看多最只要的还是要上破3310一线,其次才能靠近趋势线压制 3320附近,但若晚间继续下破低点,那么多单就有些危险了! 黄金:3300附近做多,防守91,目标看3315-20一线! 所谓一个靠谱的人,凡事有交代,件件有着落,事事有回音,兴言一直致力于市场,唯有坚持 ...
刚刚,金价跳水!央行最新公告
21世纪经济报道· 2025-07-07 08:56
7月7日,伦敦金、COMEX黄金期货价格突然跳水,截至16:26,现货黄金失守3310美元大 关,盘中一度跌超1%,随后探底回升。 | < W | | | COMEX .. | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | GC.CMX | | | | | | 3315.1 | | 昨结 | 3342.9 | 开盘 | | 3344.5 | | | -27.8 | -0.83% | 总手 | 5.27万 | 现手 | | 1 | | | 最高价 | 3352.9 | 持 仓 | | O | 外 雷 | 2.4万 | | | 最低价 | 3309.6 | 壇 仓 | -31.2万 | | 内 盘 | 2.9万 | | | 4784 | 五日 | 日K | 周K | 月K | 明る | 0 | | | 叠加 | | | | | 盘口 | | | | 3376.2 | | | | 1.00% | | | | | | | | | | 室1 3315.2 | 4 | | | | | | | | ਜੀ 3315.0 | 7 | | | ...
道富策略师:未来金价波动或将缓和
news flash· 2025-07-03 07:27
金十数据7月3日讯,道富投资管理公司策略师们说,在经历了18个月的狂热上涨后,金价的上行波动可 能在未来几个季度有所缓和。然而,包括ETF资金流入、央行购买和美元走软在内的支撑因素,仍有利 于金价上行至2026年。 策略师们继续认为,未来6-9个月金价有80%的可能性持平或上涨,在30%权重 的牛市情况下,金价可能触及每盎司4000美元。他们补充称,美元走软加上美联储下半年可能采取鸽派 政策,可能有助于黄金从货币市场共同基金创纪录的7万亿美元中吸引更多配置。 道富策略师:未来金价波动或将缓和 ...
7.3非农打破僵局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 06:07
技术面上,黄金在昨天整体的波动不大,虽然没有走反向的回撤破底,但整体还是震荡。日内在3365一线承压后出现了快速回撤,说明上方依旧存在较大的 卖盘压力,那么日内就倾向于震荡为主了节奏,不是大单边的趋势,接下来重点则是在晚间的非农数据,首先明确一点,目前多头的大基调没有改变,即使 非农出现洗盘回撤,特别是快速回撤,依旧是看二次拉升的机会。通过ADP数据情况来看,目前非农不及预期的概率依旧很大,这也对金价是利好的情绪, 即使出现靓丽的非农数据,也改变不了降息临近的步伐,只是马上降息的压力会少一些,这是关键。 经过人生的荒凉,才能抵达内心的繁华,真正的进步总是敢于战胜自我,永远不要为过去的事情后悔,永远不要为错失的行情抱怨。所有人无法选择回去的 路程,却不得不面对眼前的问题。把过去的得失抛在脑后,调整自己的状态迎接每一次挑战。荣誉是对过去的肯定,而未来却依旧需要自我的鞭策,带着敬 畏之心用心踏过每一秒,所有的获利是多数人信任与肯定的结局! 昨天公布的ADP数据-3.3万,可以说是爆冷大幅利多金价,但实际上黄金并没有产生剧烈的波动,如果今晚的非农就业数据再度疲软不及预期,加上数据不 存在修正的情况,那么美联储将迎来较 ...
“小非农”意外转负,市场静待今晚非农验证美国就业市场是否疲软,金价连涨三天后在亚盘回落,多头蓄势待发,纳指、道指多空情绪混杂,后市情绪如何?欢迎前往“数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表”查看并订阅(数据每10分钟更新1次)
news flash· 2025-07-03 02:35
Group 1 - The unexpected decline in the "little non-farm" data raises concerns about the strength of the U.S. job market, with the market awaiting confirmation from the upcoming non-farm payroll report [1] - Gold prices have increased for three consecutive days but experienced a pullback during the Asian trading session, indicating potential consolidation among bullish traders [1] - Mixed sentiments are observed in major indices such as the Nasdaq and Dow Jones, leading to uncertainty about future market trends [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 70% compared to 30% bearish, while the S&P 500 Index has 73% bullish and 27% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a strong bullish sentiment at 82%, with only 18% bearish, while the Dow Jones Index shows a more balanced sentiment of 59% bullish and 41% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index reflects a bearish sentiment of 57% against 43% bullish, and the German DAX 40 Index shows a near-even split with 47% bullish and 53% bearish [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a significant bearish sentiment of 86%, while the Euro/GBP pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 84% [4] - The Euro/Yen and Euro/AUD pairs both exhibit a high bearish sentiment of 93%, indicating a strong preference for selling these pairs [4] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 84%, while the USD/JPY pair is nearly balanced with 49% bullish and 51% bearish sentiment [4]
金价下半年冲刺千二关口承压,三大博弈定元时代走势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 02:34
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to break through 1200 yuan per gram in the second half of the year, analyzing key factors and predictions for the market [1][18]. Current Price and Target Gap - As of July 2025, domestic gold jewelry prices range from 1000 to 1010 yuan per gram, with brands like Chow Sang Sang at 1000 yuan and Chow Tai Fook at 998 yuan [1]. - The current international gold price is 3320 USD per ounce (approximately 760 yuan per gram), indicating that a target price of 1200 yuan per gram requires a 20% increase, necessitating the international price to exceed 4500 USD per ounce [3]. Historical Comparison - The peak price for gold jewelry in April 2025 was 1082 yuan per gram (with international gold at 3500 USD per ounce) [3]. - To reach 1200 yuan, gold prices must surpass the historical peak by 11%, which is significantly higher than current market momentum [3]. Supporting Factors for Price Increase - A continued depreciation of the US dollar could stimulate short-term gold price increases if the dollar index falls below 90 (currently at 99.7) [3]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (potentially 100 basis points this year) could also support gold prices, although the implementation of such policies remains uncertain [3]. - Escalating geopolitical conflicts, such as renewed violence in the Middle East and increased trade tensions with the US, may drive demand for gold as a safe haven [4]. Central Bank Purchases - In 2024, global central banks purchased a net total of 1045 tons of gold, and if this trend continues at a rate of 1000 tons annually, it could provide long-term support for gold prices [5]. Core Constraints - The premium pressure on gold jewelry is significant, with processing fees exceeding 200 yuan per gram. If international prices do not rise, retail prices may struggle to surpass 1100 yuan [6]. - A strong technical resistance level exists at 3400 USD per ounce, and breaking through this requires robust fundamental support [7]. - Consumer sentiment is currently low, with many potential buyers waiting for prices to drop to around 600-700 yuan per gram [7]. Institutional Perspectives - There are differing views among institutions regarding gold price forecasts: - Bullish outlooks from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict prices reaching 3700 USD (approximately 1120 yuan) by year-end and potentially challenging 4000 USD (around 1200 yuan) by 2026 [9]. - Bearish views from CITIC Securities and Citigroup suggest that if risk appetite declines and the dollar strengthens, prices could fall to 2500-2700 USD (approximately 600-650 yuan) [9]. - Neutral perspectives from Nanhua Futures expect prices to remain in the 1000-1100 yuan range with increased volatility but unlikely to break previous highs [9]. Conclusion - The likelihood of gold prices breaking 1200 yuan per gram in the near term is low, with a more probable scenario being a range of 1000-1100 yuan per gram through 2025, with the target of 1200 yuan potentially delayed until 2026 [10].
2025年金价冲刺3500美元悬念未解,高盛看涨3700花旗警示回落风险
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 17:51
Core Viewpoint - The potential for gold prices to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 is supported by various market dynamics, institutional forecasts, and influencing factors [1][17]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Price Increase - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, have raised their forecasts multiple times, predicting gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a possibility of $4,000 by mid-2026 due to geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credit, and ongoing central bank purchases [1]. - The long-term upward cycle for gold remains intact, with significant support from central bank purchases, as global central banks have been net buyers for 16 consecutive years, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025 [2][5]. - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could further weaken the dollar, which has already fallen to its lowest level since March 2022, potentially boosting gold prices [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Structural Demand - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the fragility of Middle East ceasefire agreements and fluctuating U.S.-China tariff negotiations, may reignite safe-haven demand for gold [4]. - The structural demand for gold is reinforced by the fact that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next 12 months [5]. Group 3: Risks to Price Increase - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $3,165 per ounce, a technical correction of 10-15% could occur, potentially bringing prices down to the $2,500-$2,700 range [6]. - Current gold prices are detached from actual production costs, indicating a risk of valuation correction due to high price levels [7]. - If strong non-farm payroll data or inflation rebounds occur, the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, which could suppress gold prices [8]. Group 4: Institutional Divergence - There is a divergence among institutions regarding gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting $3,700, UBS over $3,500, while Citigroup warns of a potential drop to the $2,500-$2,700 range [11]. Group 5: Investor Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain rationality amid short-term volatility and avoid chasing price movements, as gold prices are highly sensitive to policy changes [12]. - A recommended allocation for gold in household financial assets is between 5-10%, with a strategy of dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs to mitigate timing risks [12]. - Key policy anchors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the political landscape surrounding U.S. elections [13].
何小冰:金价仍是扫荡中找单边,3300分界定节奏
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-27 10:13
何小冰:金价仍是扫荡中找单边,3300分界定节奏 本周的黄金,一天一个样,每天都是全新的开始,前面的涨跌都跟今日的涨跌无关 光看我们这个记录和布局,都可以发现过程中的方向是不连贯的,主要还是参考美盘后午夜前后确定的方向,然后次日走延续 这也是我们在周三的时候说的,涨跌不忘扫荡,延续只在启动的时候,修正的时候往往是反转 而修正的空间幅度也是非常大的,至少30-50美元空间 然后重新启动后,又是一波放量 这个星期没有连贯,只有不断地扫荡,从结果上都可以看到,我们每天一个思路,只看当天的行情和结果 周一守3350看涨,成功上涨到3393,成功拿下多,这一波完成,后面没有再参与,时间也到了午夜时段,然后开始了冲高回落下跌 周二守3355-3357看跌,成功下跌到3295区域,成功拿下空,这一波完成,后面没有再参与,时间也刚好从午夜开始出现探底回升的上涨 周三守3320看涨找寻更高的阻力点,看区间扫荡,最终价格也是涨了,过程非常的熬人,还符合预期在美盘虚破3320后,探底回升上涨到3340区 域,尾盘探底回升上涨 周四守3330看涨找寻更高的阻力点,还是看区间扫荡,价格反复三次支撑上涨走高破高,但是在3350关口成压了 ...