投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 钢材月报 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 基本面边际改善，旺季钢价或企稳 核心观点 假期因素扰动下钢市产业矛盾持续累积，且市场交易逻辑回归产业 端，现实逻辑主导下 2 月钢价震荡走弱。 钢材库存持续累库，且假期因素扰动下各品种库存均迎来显著增 加，但品种间增幅略有差异，其中建筑钢材库存增幅最为明显，多因假 期供应平稳、需求停滞所致，库存压力有所增加；板材库存同样累库， 增幅略低但仍是近年来农历同期最高，去化压力依然偏大。 春节期间长、短流程钢厂生产表现各异，其中短流程 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the steel futures market declined overall, and the spot prices decreased slightly compared to before the holiday. During the holiday, the overall production of the five major steel products increased, and the impact on hot metal production was small. The total steel inventory increased at an accelerated pace, but the inventory accumulation rate of rebar was slower than in previous years. The export of steel was affected by the decline in export licenses, and the overseas manufacturing industry ended the restocking process. The inventory of hot-rolled coils accumulated rapidly, and the current inventory levels of billets and plates were high, with great demand pressure. The performance of rebar was stronger than that of hot-rolled coils. The raw material replenishment of steel mills before the holiday has ended, and the enthusiasm for winter storage this year was insufficient. Currently, the steel inventory is high, and the capital expenditure after the holiday may fall short of expectations. The demand recovery situation remains to be seen. The pessimistic expectations of steel mills may also limit the height of hot metal production this year, putting pressure on raw materials. However, the current absolute price of steel is low, and even if it falls, the space is relatively limited. Overall, it may maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was priced at 3,180 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3,110 yuan (-10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil at 3,220 yuan (-20), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil at 3,130 yuan (-10) [4]. Market Research and Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a weak and volatile trend before the holiday [6]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels, and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [6]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Important Information - On February 20, 2026, US President Trump signed an announcement, stipulating that a 10% import tax would be imposed on imported goods within 150 days. The temporary import tariff would take effect at 00:01 on February 24, 2026. On February 21, Trump raised the import tariff rate on global goods from 10% to 15% [8]. - On February 24, 2026, the price of common billet resources of Songting Iron and Steel in Qian'an, Tangshan decreased by 10, and the ex-factory price was 2,880 yuan including tax [9]. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the basis of rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts in different months, the price difference between different contracts, the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar, the disk profit of rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts, the cash profit of different steel products, the cost of electric furnaces, etc. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [14][16][18].

Group 1: Molybdenum Market Overview - The domestic molybdenum market experienced a positive start after the holiday, with most product prices significantly increasing. Molybdenum concentrate prices rose by approximately 80 yuan/ton, molybdenum iron prices increased by about 5,000 yuan/ton, and molybdenum powder prices went up by around 5 yuan/kg [1][4]. - Key factors influencing the molybdenum market include a reduction in molybdenum product imports during the Spring Festival and a decrease in production from domestic manufacturers, both contributing to rising prices. Additionally, international molybdenum prices fluctuated significantly during the holiday period [1][4]. Group 2: Steel Inventory Data - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the steel inventory of key statistical steel enterprises reached 15.11 million tons in early February 2026, an increase of 400,000 tons (2.7%) compared to the previous period, and a rise of 970,000 tons (6.9%) since the beginning of the year [2][5]. - Year-on-year comparisons show a decrease of 1.1 million tons (6.8%) compared to the same period last year, and a reduction of 1.02 million tons (6.3%) compared to two years ago. Regionally, steel inventories increased in Northeast (350,000 tons), Northwest (40,000 tons), Southwest (30,000 tons), and Central South (240,000 tons) regions, while inventories decreased in North China (160,000 tons) and East China (110,000 tons) [2][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices face certain downward pressure; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate; and glass prices will continue to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - During the long holiday, the price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet remained stable at 2,900 yuan/ton. The US tariff policy first cut 20% and then added 15%, reducing the tariff burden on Chinese goods exported to the US, but the US will still maintain high tariff barriers on the steel industry. The futures price of rebar has fallen below the cost of electric furnace off - peak electricity and long - process production, with a low static valuation. In the short term, the domestic market is in a policy vacuum, and overseas tariff policies have limited boosting effects. After the holiday, focus on the increase in steel inventories and the progress of demand recovery. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Iron Ore - During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swap fell slightly, with the main contract down 1.39% compared to the pre - holiday domestic closing period. Before the holiday, the daily average pig iron output rose to 230,490 tons, and port iron ore inventories are at a historical high, while steel mills' iron ore inventories have been replenished to normal levels in recent years. The post - holiday trading core lies in steel demand, which will affect the resumption of production by steel mills and the iron ore shipping situation. Iron ore prices are expected to face downward pressure [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - During the Spring Festival, the de - stocking efficiency of imported coking coal spot resources was average, and the prices of forward Australian and Canadian coking coal declined due to the contraction of overseas demand before the year. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was suspended during the Spring Festival, and the port coking coal inventory was digested but remained at a high level. After the holiday, steel mills and coking plants will mainly digest their in - plant inventories. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [3] Glass - Before the holiday, some small production lines were cold - repaired and shut down, with the daily melting volume falling below 150,000 tons. The upstream manufacturers' inventories accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand will be temporarily sluggish after the holiday. There are risks such as the expected large - scale cold repair of production lines and the impact of Hubei's environmental protection policy on supply. Although there is still pressure on glass prices, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level. The 05 main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [3]

2月14日，据中国钢铁工业协会消息，2026年2月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量1511万吨，环比上 一旬增加40万吨，增长2.7%；比年初增加97万吨，增长6.9%；比上月同旬增加7万吨，增长0.5%；比去 年同旬减少110万吨，下降6.8%，比前年同旬减少102万吨，下降6.3%。 （来源：财闻） 环比上一旬增加40万吨，增长2.7%。 ...

其中，建筑钢材库存总量为381.90万吨，较上周增加44.45万吨（+13.17%)，包含30个城市，共计79个仓 库。热卷库存总量为223.81万吨，较上周增加12.98万吨（+6.16%)，包含15个城市，共计47个仓库。中 厚板库存总量为74.80万吨，较上周增加1.80万吨（+2.47%)，包含9个城市，共计14个仓库冷轧涂镀库存 总量为118.80万吨，较上周增加0.30万吨（+0.25%)，包含5个城市，共计14个仓库。 新华财经北京2月9日电钢银电商最新数据显示，截至2月9日当周，全国38个城市，共计135个仓库的城 市钢材总库存量为799.31万吨，较上周环比增加59.53万吨，增幅8.05%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally. Currently, the five major steel products are reducing production, but hot metal production is still increasing. Steel mills are entering the holiday shutdown and maintenance mode. Steel inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, with rebar inventory accumulating faster than hot - rolled coil, and the overall social inventory pressure is greater than that of the mill inventory. The demand for building materials has declined rapidly due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has also decreased due to factors such as a decline in export licenses and the end of the restocking phase in overseas manufacturing. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate following macro - economic sentiment before the holiday. However, the high steel inventory, potential lower - than - expected post - holiday capital expenditure, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the increase in hot metal production this year and put pressure on raw materials [7]. - The trading strategies suggest that the steel market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 191.68 tons (a decrease of 8.15 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil was 309.16 tons (a decrease of 0.05 tons). The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (an increase of 0.6 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 16.9% (a decrease of 15.8%). The cost of electric arc furnaces has increased, leading to a decline in profits and a significant drop in capacity utilization. Long - process steel mills are still profitable, but the enthusiasm for increasing production is limited [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 147.64 tons (a decrease of 28.76 tons), and that for hot - rolled coil was 305.54 tons (a decrease of 5.87 tons). The demand for building materials has decreased due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns. The demand for hot - rolled coils has also declined as overseas manufacturing enters the off - season. The investment in domestic fixed assets has a lack of incremental projects, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend. The manufacturing PMI in January showed a decline, and the production and sales data of some industries such as automobiles and white goods also showed different trends [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 44.04 tons (4.52 tons in mill inventory and 39.52 tons in social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.62 tons (1.50 tons in mill inventory and 2.12 tons in social inventory), and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 59.24 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that steel prices will maintain a volatile trend following macro - economic sentiment before the holiday. However, the high inventory, potential lower - than - expected post - holiday capital expenditure, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the increase in hot metal production this year and put pressure on raw materials. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of coal mines, hot metal production, downstream demand performance, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The steel market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal. For options, wait and see [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3220 yuan (a decrease of 30 yuan), and in Beijing was 3130 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan). The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3250 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan), and in Tianjin (Hebei Steel) was 3160 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan) [13]. - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric arc furnaces in East China was - 234.68 yuan (a decrease of 83 yuan), and the off - peak electricity profit was - 70 yuan (a decrease of 83 yuan). The long - process steel mills still had profits, but the short - process steel mills' profits were under pressure [32]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - **International**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in January reached 52.6, a new high since August 2022. The eurozone's CPI in January increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest since September 2024, and the core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. Indonesia plans to cut coal production and may impose export tariffs in 2026 [34]. - **Domestic**: In December, the new social financing was 22075 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.64%. The new RMB loans were 9100 billion yuan. The investment in fixed assets from January to December 2025 decreased by 3.80% year - on - year, with a significant decline in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment. The real estate market data such as new construction, completion, and sales still showed negative growth, and the willingness of residents to buy houses was insufficient [41]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (an increase of 0.6 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 16.9% (a decrease of 15.8%). The small - sample production of rebar was 191.68 tons (a decrease of 8.15 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil was 309.16 tons (a decrease of 0.05 tons) [59][65]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 147.64 tons (a decrease of 28.76 tons), and that for hot - rolled coil was 305.54 tons (a decrease of 5.87 tons). The demand for building materials has decreased due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has also declined as overseas manufacturing enters the off - season. The investment in domestic fixed assets has a lack of incremental projects, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend [68]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 44.04 tons (4.52 tons in mill inventory and 39.52 tons in social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.62 tons (1.50 tons in mill inventory and 2.12 tons in social inventory), and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 59.24 tons [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The market sentiment of hot-rolled coil plates resonates, showing a weak and volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - 1/29 Steel Union weekly data: For production, rebar increased by 0.28 tons, hot-rolled coil by 3.8 tons, and the total of five major varieties by 3.58 tons; for inventory, rebar increased by 23.43 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 2.2 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 21.43 tons; for apparent demand, rebar decreased by 9.12 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 1.45 tons, and the total decreased by 7.78 tons [2][3] - In December, among key statistical enterprises, the output of medium and heavy plate mills increased year-on-year, while the output of hot continuous rolling mills and cold continuous rolling mills decreased year-on-year. Among major plate varieties, the output of shipbuilding plates, household appliance plates, and engineering machinery steel plates increased significantly year-on-year; the output of container plates and wind power steel plates decreased significantly year-on-year. In terms of product prices, except for medium and heavy wide steel strips, which increased month-on-month, other product prices decreased [3] - From January 1 - 12, the cumulative output of medium and heavy plate mills and cold continuous rolling mills increased year-on-year, while the cumulative output of hot continuous rolling mills remained flat year-on-year. Among major plate varieties, the cumulative output of shipbuilding plates increased significantly year-on-year; the output of container plates decreased significantly year-on-year [3] - In mid-January 2026, key statistical steel enterprises produced 19.79 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.979 million tons, a 0.9% decrease in daily output month-on-month; 17.94 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.794 million tons, a 1.8% increase in daily output month-on-month; 18.77 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.877 million tons, a 3.0% increase in daily output month-on-month. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 16.13 million tons, a 7.3% increase from the previous ten-day period, a 14.1% increase from the beginning of the year, a 0.8% increase from the same ten-day period of the previous month, a 24.7% increase from the same ten-day period of last year, and a 5.1% increase from the same ten-day period of the year before last [3] - In mid-January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.09 million tons, a 0.3% decrease from the previous month, a 1.7% decrease from the beginning of the year, and a 5.2% increase from the same period of last year [3] - BHP Billiton announced that its first-half iron ore output reached a record high, and it has accepted a partial reduction in iron ore prices in the annual contract negotiation with China [3] - On January 19, a 650m³ saturated water and steam spherical tank in the steelmaking operation department of Baotou Baogang Plate Mill exploded, damaging some plants and equipment, which will affect the production of the plate mill production line and the surrounding affected production lines [3] - According to customs statistics, in December 2025, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, a 4.2% increase from the previous month; the average price was $1,810.3 per ton, an 11.0% increase from the previous month. From January - December, the cumulative steel imports were 6.059 million tons, an 11.1% decrease from the previous year [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs: Implement export license management for some steel products [4] 3.2 Trend Intensity - Rebar trend intensity: 0; Hot-rolled coil plate trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

新华财经北京2月2日电钢银电商最新公布的数据显示，截至2月2日的一周，全国38个城市，共计135个 仓库的城市钢材总库存量为739.78万吨，较上周增加29.06万吨，增幅4.09%。 其中，建筑钢材库存总量为337.45万吨，较上周环比增加21.37万吨（+6.76%)，包含30个城市，共计79 个仓库。热卷库存总量为210.83万吨，较上周环比增加5.63万吨（+2.74%)，包含15个城市，共计47个仓 库。中厚板库存总量73.00万吨，较上周环比增加2.32万吨（+3.28%)，包含9个城市，共计14个仓库。冷 轧涂镀库存总量为118.50万吨，较上周环比减少0.26万吨（-0.22%)，包含5个城市，共计14个仓库。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

2026 年 1 月 30 日 螺纹钢：原料端情绪推涨，震荡反复 热轧卷板：原料端情绪推涨，震荡反复 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,157 | 35 | 1.12 | | 货 期 | HC2605 | 3,308 | 26 | 0.79 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 1,026,450 | 1,785,380 | 40,974 | | | HC2605 | 434,547 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 1,547,118 前日价格 （元/吨） | 29,468 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3260 | 3240 | 20 | | | 杭州 | 3300 | 32 ...