中钢协：11月中旬，21个城市5大品种钢材社会库存871万吨，环比减少22万吨，下降2.5%，库存呈连 续下降态势；比年初增加212万吨，上升32.2%；比上年同期增加187万吨，上升27.3%。 11月24日：本周城市总库存量为886.96万吨，较上周环比减少23.11万吨(-2.54%)；建筑钢材库存总量为 455.74万吨，较上周环比减少17.25万吨(-3.65%)。 11月25日，国内期市主力合约大面积飘红。其中，胶合板期货呈现窄幅偏强震荡，截至发稿，主力合约 报146.75元/吨，震荡走高0.10%。 美国钢铁协会（AISI）：截至11月22日当周美国钢铁产能利用率为76.9%。 据世界钢铁协会，2025年10月，全球粗钢产量为1.433亿吨，同比减少5.9%；2025年1-10月，全球粗钢 产量为15.176亿吨，同比减少2.1%。中国钢铁产量7200万吨，同比减少12.1%。 ...

供需双增，钢价震荡运行 钢材周报 20251124 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证：F03131526 成材：供需双增，钢价震荡运行 （1）供给： 全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为207.96万吨（+7.96），热轧当周产量为316.01万吨（+2.35）。 （2） 需求： 近期高频数据显示，螺纹表观需求回升，热卷表观需求回升。上周螺纹表观需求为230.79万吨（+14.42），热轧表观 需求324.42万吨(+10.83）。 基本面方面，钢厂盈利率持续下降，同比处于低位。高炉产能利用率下降，铁水产量小幅下降，部分钢厂复产，螺纹产量回升， 供应压力增加。需求方面，表需回升，但受季节性影响，需求改善持续性存疑，终端需求仍疲弱。据百年建筑调研，截至11月18 日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为59.8%，周环比上升0.04个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到位率为61.11%，周环比上升0.05个 百分点；房建项目资金到位率为53.29%，周环比上升0.05个百分点。库存加速去化，同比仍处高位。热卷供需改善但有限，产量 增加仍有压 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月10日电钢银电商最新数据显示，截至11月10日的一周，全国38个城市，共计135个仓 库的城市钢材总库存量较上周环比减少3.09万吨，至933.32万吨，降幅0.33%。 其中，建筑钢材库存总量为482.92万吨，较上周环比减少4.33万吨（-0.89%)，包含30个城市，共计79个 仓库。热卷库存总量为247.68万吨，较上周环比减少1.18万吨（-0.47%)，包含15个城市，共计47个仓 库。中厚板库存总量为76.20万吨，较上周环比增加2.00万吨（+2.70%)，包含9个城市，共计14个仓库。 冷轧涂镀库存总量为126.52万吨，较上周环比增加0.42万吨（+0.33%)，包含5个城市，共计14个仓库。 ...

新华财经北京11月5日电中钢协发布2025年10月下旬重点企业钢材库存旬报。2025年10月下旬，重点统 计钢铁企业钢材库存量1463万吨，环比上一旬减少195万吨，下降11.8%；比年初增加226万吨，增长 18.3%；比上月同旬减少4万吨，下降0.3%；比去年同旬增加99万吨，增长7.3%，比前年同旬增加86万 吨，增长6.3%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a mixed trend with weak spot prices, while the demand and supply dynamics indicate a potential for inventory adjustments and production cuts in response to market conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6] Supply - Iron element production increased by 5% year-on-year from January to September, but the growth rate narrowed in October due to environmental restrictions in Tangshan, leading to a decrease in molten iron output by 30,000 tons to 2.37 million tons [3] - The production of the five major steel products remained stable year-on-year, with a slight increase of 100,000 tons to 8.75 million tons, although the output of rebar and hot-rolled steel fell short of demand [3] Demand - Domestic demand expectations remain weak, while exports are holding at high levels, supported by low prices [4] - The total demand for steel has recovered to a year-on-year flat position, with an increase of 240,000 tons to 9.12 million tons, particularly for rebar and hot-rolled steel [4] Inventory - Inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 410,000 tons to 15.13 million tons, with rebar and hot-rolled steel inventories also declining [5] - Despite the decrease in inventory, production levels are below demand, indicating a potential for continued inventory reduction, although the rate of reduction for hot-rolled steel is slower [5] Cost and Profit - Steel profits have significantly declined from high levels, with the current profit ranking from highest to lowest being billet, hot-rolled, rebar, and cold-rolled [2] - The cost support for iron element is weak, while carbon element costs provide some support [2] Market Outlook - The steel market is expected to continue its downward trend, with the need to compress profits to curb production [6] - The focus remains on the supply side of coking coal, with rebar and hot-rolled steel expected to trade within specific price ranges [6]

Core Insights - The total inventory of steel materials in 38 cities across the country reached 9.3641 million tons as of November 3, showing a decrease of 134,600 tons (-1.42%) compared to the previous week [1][2] Inventory Summary - **Construction Steel Inventory**: The total inventory was 4.8725 million tons, down by 83,900 tons (-1.69%) from the previous week [1][2] - **Hot Rolled Steel Inventory**: The total inventory was 2.4886 million tons, decreasing by 42,600 tons (-1.68%) compared to the previous week [1][2] - **Medium and Heavy Plate Inventory**: The total inventory stood at 742,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 400 tons (-0.05%) from the previous week [1][2] - **Cold Rolled Coated Inventory**: The total inventory was 1.2610 million tons, down by 7,700 tons (-0.61%) from the previous week [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The marginal impact of the macro - environment on the steel industry is weakening, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within a range [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 2.1 Fundamental Situation - **Price and Basis**: The report presents season - based price charts of Shanghai 20mm rebar and 4.75mm hot - rolled coil, as well as the basis season charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil 01 contracts in Shanghai [9][10][12]. - **Contract Spreads**: It includes the 01 - 05 contract spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and the spread between the main contracts of hot - rolled coil and rebar [14][15][16]. - **Profit**: The report shows the 01 - contract disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil [22]. - **Production**: Statistics on monthly pig iron and crude steel production, 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, and the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces are provided [24][25][34]. - **Import and Export**: Data on steel and billet import quantities, steel and billet export quantities, and the export profits of Indian and Japanese hot - rolled coils are presented [36][59]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Information on the weekly apparent demand and total inventory of five major steel products, as well as the inventory of billets in the Tangshan area, is included [44][51]. 2.2 November Market Outlook - Although no specific outlook content is provided, the report is expected to analyze the market trend of the steel industry in November based on the previous fundamental data. 2.3 Macroeconomic and Downstream Industry Indicators - **Financial Indicators**: Data on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, and the loan demand index for infrastructure are presented [74][93]. - **Real Estate Indicators**: Information on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities, monthly year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales area, and new housing starts area is provided [76][81]. - **Infrastructure Indicators**: Data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure fixed - asset investment, monthly year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment, and cement direct - supply volume for infrastructure are presented [96][99]. - **Manufacturing Indicators**: Information on the performance of various sub - items of the PMI, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits, and monthly year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value is provided [105][108]. - **Downstream Industry Production**: Data on the monthly production of automobiles, civil steel ships, excavators, metal containers, refrigerators, and air conditioners are presented [119][125].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The steel price in the short - term will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and it still follows the fluctuation of coking coal. Breaking the current situation requires more factors. The subsequent focus should be on coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Related Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is priced at 3190 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3140 yuan (+20), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3340 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3240 yuan (+20) [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The steel price will maintain a volatile trend with upward pressure [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and the long position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - In November 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is 28.47 million units, a 17.7% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Specifically, the production schedule of household air conditioners is 12.76 million units, a 23.7% decrease; that of refrigerators is 7.78 million units, a 9.4% decrease; and that of washing machines is 7.93 million units, a 0.2% decrease [7]. - Last week, 21 exporters surveyed by SMM received new export orders of approximately 789,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons from the previous week, a 12.16% increase [8]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts related to rebar and hot - rolled coil, including price trends, basis, spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [9][11][13].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The latest data from Steel Silver E-commerce indicates a decrease in the total inventory of steel materials across 38 cities in China, reflecting a downward trend in stock levels as of October 27, 2023 [1]. Inventory Data - The total steel inventory across 135 warehouses in 38 cities is 9.4987 million tons, which is a decrease of 128,700 tons compared to the previous week, representing a decline of 1.34% [1]. - The inventory of construction steel is 4.9564 million tons, down by 73,800 tons week-on-week, a reduction of 1.47% [1]. - Hot-rolled coil inventory stands at 2.5312 million tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons, reflecting a decline of 1.05% [1]. - Medium and heavy plate inventory is 742,400 tons, down by 11,700 tons, which is a decrease of 1.55% [1]. - Cold-rolled and coated inventory totals 1.2687 million tons, with a reduction of 16,300 tons, marking a decline of 1.27% [1].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, the year-on-year inventories of hot-rolled coils and cold-rolled coils reached new highs in recent years, with prominent contradictions. Since the peak season this year, steel inventories have been rising, mainly due to weak demand and high production capacity, and steel profits have been continuously compressed. Due to the support of terminal demand, especially exports, the market is relatively restrained in shorting steel profits. The high steel production leads to strong demand for raw materials, providing some cost support for steel prices. Currently, steel inventories are large and terminal demand is weak. Steel may start to reduce production and enter a negative feedback loop. Even if production is not reduced, steel prices are expected to remain weak. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in short-term short positions [37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Hot-rolled Coil Main Contract Trend - This week, the hot-rolled coil main contract showed short-term narrow-range fluctuations and continued its weak trend [9]. 1.2 Hot-rolled Coil Spot Trend - The spot market showed weak fluctuations [11]. 2.1 Hot-rolled Coil Futures-Spot Price Difference Trend - The 01 basis is 61, the 05 basis is 60, and the 10 basis is 26 [14]. 2.2 Cold-Hot Price Difference - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.1 Hot-rolled Coil Profit - The production profit is 84, the 01 contract's on-screen profit is 144, the 05 contract's on-screen profit is 110, and the 10 contract's on-screen profit is 127 [21]. 3.2 Hot-rolled Coil Production - The hot-rolled coil production is 321.84, the cold-rolled coil production is 87.41, the rebar production is 201.16, and the production of the five major steel products is 856.95 [24]. 3.3 Raw Materials - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.4 Hot-rolled Coil Inventory - The hot-rolled coil inventory is 419.19, the cold-rolled coil inventory is 183.45, the rebar inventory is 641.05, and the inventory of the five major steel products is 1582.26 [29]. 3.5 Terminal Demand - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.6 Export - Exports continued to strengthen month-on-month, and exports supported demand [34]. 4.后市展望 - The market situation and operation strategy are the same as the core view [37].