Group 1 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a supply surplus of approximately 178,000 tons in the global refined copper market by 2025, followed by a shift to a supply deficit of 150,000 tons in 2026 [1] - Global copper mine production is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and accelerate to 2.3% in 2026, while refined copper consumption is projected to increase by about 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026 [1] - Refined copper production is anticipated to rise by 3.4% in 2025, but the growth rate will slow to 0.9% in 2026 [1] Group 2 - China, as the largest copper consumer globally, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [1] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM) has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" [1]

记者注意到，近年来海外铜产业供应扰动明显增多，全球铜精矿供应一直偏紧。2025年二季度，受地震 影响，艾芬豪与紫金矿业在刚果（金）合作的Kakula地下矿大幅下调2025年增产目标；三季度智利 Codelco旗下的El Teniente矿山运营也遭遇地震，产量预计损失2万～3万吨，叠加此次印尼Grasberg矿区 停产，今年铜精矿供应可能下降逾5%。这也意味着，全球铜精矿供需平衡表出现变化。今年4月，国际 铜业研究组织（ICSG）认为全球铜精矿今年的供应增速能够达到2.3%，产量增长近50万吨。 肖静认为，近期ICSG将再次更新铜精矿产量预期，很可能下调到10万吨，2026年供应增量也将受此次 事故影响而相应下调。展望后市，巴拿马年产量33万吨的Cobre Panama铜矿的产能恢复节奏成为影响 2026年供需平衡的关键因素。同时，2026年年度加工费谈判将再次陷入被动局面。 "四季度铜市供需有望转向紧平衡。"中信建投期货铜研究员张维鑫表示，从供应端来看，巴拿马铜矿停 产导致原料短缺，而Grasberg铜矿停产意味着2026年供应面临较大压力。从需求端来看，虽然矿冶矛盾 加剧或逐步沿着产业链向下游传导，高铜价 ...

9月24日晚间，国际铜价突然大幅上涨，LME铜重返10000美元高位。 期货机构普遍将其归结为，自由港麦克莫兰旗下印尼格拉斯伯格（Grasberg）铜矿因重大泥石流事故所 引发的意外停产。 相关数据显示，Grasberg铜矿是全球在产的第二大铜矿，2024年铜产量达到81.6万吨，约占全球铜矿产 量的3.6%。 以上停产事件，会直接导致其产量的下降。自由港公司预计，2026年Grasberg铜矿产量将较之前的预估 值77万吨下降35%，直到2027年其产量才会回到停产前水平。 这使得本就处于供需紧平衡的铜市，再次加重了未来铜精矿紧张的预期，并引发了短期期货、证券市场 的剧烈波动。 仅就证券市场而言，9月24日美股自由港麦克莫兰大跌近17%，单日市值损失达到110亿美元。 然而，悲喜并不相通，南方铜业、紫金矿业等其他铜矿生产商股价，则在年内积累可观涨幅的基础上进 一步拔高。 截至9月25日收盘，紫金矿业总市值已经冲上1000亿美元。 根据公司官网披露，初步评估表明，随着维修工作的完成以及分阶段重启和产能提升工作的开始，这些 影响可能会导致近期（2025年第四季度和2026年）的大量生产被推迟。 自由港公司预计， ...

记者丨 董鹏 编辑丨张伟贤 9月24日晚间，国际铜价突然大幅上涨，LME铜重返10000美元高位。 期货机构普遍将其归结为，自由港麦克莫兰旗下印尼格拉斯伯格（Grasberg）铜矿因重大泥石流事故所 引发的意外停产。 相关数据显示，Grasberg铜矿是全球在产的第二大铜矿，2024年铜产量达到81.6万吨，约占全球铜矿产量的 3.6%。 以上停产事件，会直接导致其产量的下降。自由港公司预计，2026年Grasberg铜矿产量将较之前的预估值77 万吨下降35%，直到2027年其产量才会回到停产前水平。 这使得本就处于供需紧平衡的铜市，再次加重了未来铜精矿紧张的预期，并引发了短期期货、证券市场的剧 烈波动。仅就证券市场而言， 9月24日美股自由港麦克莫兰大跌近17%，单日市值损失达到110亿美元（约人 民币 784.1亿元 ）。 截至北京时间09月25日22时03分，股价跌5.02%，市值报514亿美元，再缩水27亿美元 （约人民币192.6亿元） ，两日市值合计蒸发976.7亿元。 然而，悲喜并不相通，南方铜业、紫金矿业等其他铜矿生产商股价，则在年内积累可观涨幅的基础上进一步 拔高。 截至9月25日收盘，紫 ...

有人欢喜有人愁。 9月24日晚间，国际铜价突然大幅上涨，LME铜重返10000美元高位。 期货机构普遍将其归结为，自由港麦克莫兰旗下印尼格拉斯伯格(Grasberg)铜矿因重大泥石流事故所引发的意外停产。 相关数据显示，Grasberg铜矿是全球在产的第二大铜矿，2024年铜产量达到81.6万吨，约占全球铜矿产量的3.6%。 以上停产事件，会直接导致其产量的下降。自由港公司预计，2026年Grasberg铜矿产量将较之前的预估值77万吨下降35%，直到2027年其产量才会回到停产 前水平。 这使得本就处于供需紧平衡的铜市，再次加重了未来铜精矿紧张的预期，并引发了短期期货、证券市场的剧烈波动。 仅就证券市场而言，9月24日美股自由港麦克莫兰大跌近17%，单日市值损失达到110亿美元。 然而，悲喜并不相通，南方铜业、紫金矿业（601899）等其他铜矿生产商股价，则在年内积累可观涨幅的基础上进一步拔高。 截至9月25日收盘，紫金矿业总市值已经冲上1000亿美元。供给端扰动频发 Grasberg事故今年9月8日便已发生，只是彼时并未对国际铜价构成明显影响。 直至9月24日，自由港公司更新了事故最新进展，并大幅下修其铜 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 铜: Grasberg不可抗力，资余兴趣是关键 点有成金 事件: 9月24日晚，自由港麦克莫兰公司(Freeport-McMoRan Inc.)对印尼旗下大矿Grasberg Block Cave泥浆溃海事 故宣布不可抗力，并下调今年四季度及明年全年铜金销量预期。伦铜价格夜盘开盘前直线转涨，并再次创出今 年10320美元/吨收盘价新高；沪铜加权增仓6万余手，加权指数最高涨至82880点。 1、该矿重要性：事故于9月8日发生，泥浆涌出量大，矿区基本处于停产状态，预计年底前完成事故调查。印 尼Grasberq铜矿是全球第二大铜精矿，自由港麦克莫兰公司（FCX）目前持股48.8%，印尼公司持股51.2% (仍积极致力于提高股权占比) ，该矿年产能80万吨，在疫情期间完成从露天矿到地下开采的转变，2024年该 矿铜销量增至约76万吨，接近FCX全年产量的40%，按国际铜研究小组2024年2298万吨铜精矿产量计算，占 比约3.3%。 2、事故对该矿产销量影响: 2023年6月印尼禁止铜精矿出口，除非兑现冶炼厂产能建设以获取阶段性出口配 额。 FCX为Grasberg铜矿配建冶炼厂的项目进展曲折,2 ...

7月全球铜市为供应过剩57,000吨，6月为供应短缺14,000吨。 7月全球全球精炼铜产量为250万吨，全球精炼铜消费量为244万吨。 具体情况如下： | | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (单位为1,000吨) | | | | | 1-7月 | | 4月 | 5月 | 6月 | 7月 | | 全球铜矿产里 | 21,223 | 21,910 | 22, 368 | 22, 987 | 13,039 | 13, 477 | 1,930 | 2,011 | 1,922 | 2,012 | | 全球铜矿产能 | 25,942 | 26, 463 | 27, 387 | 28, 361 | 16, 382 | 16, 960 | 2, 400 | 2, 487 | 2, 414 | 2,501 | | 矿场产能利用率(%) | 82 | 83 | 82 | 81 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off - season may lead to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of domestic copper product enterprises in August. However, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the transition from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season, and the initial decline in the global electrolytic copper inventory may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors try to go long on the active contract on dips and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: The closing price on August 22, 2025, was 78,690, up 150 from the previous day. The trading volume was 37,910 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,132 lots. The inventory was 24,148 tons, down 1,009 tons [2]. - **SMM 1 Electrolytic Copper Average Price**: It was 78,830 on August 22, 2025, up 30 from the previous day [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis**: The basis was 260 on August 22, 2025, up 120 from the previous day. The spot premiums and discounts in different regions showed different trends [2]. - **LME 3 - month Copper Futures**: The closing price on August 21, 2025, was 9,724.5, up 4 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 155,975 tons, down 375 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract on August 22, 2025, was 4.433, up 0.03 from the previous day. The total inventory was 271,482 tons [2]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Situation - **Global Supply - demand**: In June 2025, the global copper market had a supply surplus of 86,000 tons. From January to June 2025, the global copper market had a supply surplus of 251,000 tons, compared with 395,000 tons in the same period of the previous year. The global refined copper production from January to June 2025 was 1.4212 billion tons, and the consumption was 1.396 billion tons [2]. - **Domestic Downstream Industry**: The processing fee of fine copper rods for East China power and enameled wires increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rates of different copper product industries in China showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the capacity utilization rate of fine copper rods increased, while that of copper wire and cable decreased [2]. 3.3 Investment Strategy Investors are suggested to try to go long on the active contract on dips. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels: for Shanghai copper, the support is around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance is around 80,000 - 81,000; for London copper, the support is around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance is around 10,000 - 10,200; for US copper, the support is around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance is around 4.6 - 5.0 [2].

Core Insights - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global copper market surplus of 251,000 tons for the first half of 2025, down from a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper production for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 14.212 million tons, an increase from 13.716 million tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper consumption for the first half of 2025 is expected to reach 13.960 million tons, up from 13.321 million tons in the same period last year [1] Production and Consumption Data - In June 2025, global refined copper production was 2.431 million tons, while consumption was 2.395 million tons [2] - The global copper mine production for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 11.438 million tons, compared to 11.134 million tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - The global refined copper production capacity utilization rate is projected to be 79% for the first half of 2025 [2] Inventory and Supply-Demand Balance - The global refined copper ending inventory is expected to be 1.310 million tons by the end of 2025 [2] - The adjusted refined copper supply-demand balance indicates a surplus of 248,000 tons for the first half of 2025 [2] - The inventory change during the period shows a decrease of 88,000 tons for the first half of 2025 [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The macro - environment is weak, demand is marginally weakening, downstream construction has declined, and demand has entered the off - season with insufficient downstream acceptance. However, the copper smelting end is tight, and the shutdown of a copper mine in Congo has increased supply - side disturbances. Under the game of long and short forces, the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures market opened low, moved low, and closed down today. The shutdown of a large copper mine in Congo due to an earthquake and the withdrawal of its 2025 production forecast have deepened the expectation of a tight supply at the mine end [1]. - As of May 23, the spot TC was - 44.3 dollars per dry ton, and the RC was - 4.44 cents per pound. Although the decline has significantly slowed, the market still expects a tight supply. In April, the domestic refined copper production was 1.254 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and the imported refined copper was 300,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. The actual supply has not weakened [1]. - Downstream buyers are cautious about high - priced copper, and the demand has decreased month - on - month. Except for the real estate sector, the terminal demand is still good. As of the end of April, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.49 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9% [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The copper futures opened low, moved low, and closed down at 78,210. The long positions of the top 20 were 108,529 lots, an increase of 6,144 lots; the short positions were 110,516 lots, an increase of 5,989 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 145 yuan per ton, and in South China was 220 yuan per ton. On May 23, 2025, the LME official price was 9,565 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 30 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side As of May 23, the spot TC was - 44.30 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.44 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the previous period. As of May 26, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 53,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 162,200 tons, a slight decrease of 2,575 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 175,600 short tons, an increase of 1,024 short tons from the previous period [9].