聚焦景气度锚定龙头股 公募新进重仓股动向曝光 ◎记者 赵明超 随着公募基金2025年四季报披露完毕，公募新进重仓股也随之浮出水面。从公募基金新进重仓股逻辑 看，主要围绕社会发展趋势和行业景气度进行布局，商业航天、机器人、AI电力等赛道成为布局重 点。从部分基金的新进重仓股看，进入2026年以来表现抢眼。 锚定新兴产业 电力设备板块关注度也较高。具体来看，12只基金重仓持有华明装备，持股数量超过700万股。7只基金 重仓持有东方电气，合计持股数量超过1100万股。 看重行业景气度 从基金的新进重仓股情况看，主要呈现两大特征：一是产业趋势向好；二是属于细分行业龙头。从最新 动向看，进入2026年以来，机构还在频频调研这些标的，非常关注它们的最新发展情况。 以超捷股份为例，今年以来已发布7份投资者关系活动记录表。上海证券报记者梳理调研纪要发现，机 构十分关注公司商业航天业务的进展情况，以及公司在该领域的客户。类似的还有步科股份，今年以来 机构调研热度同样较高。从调研纪要来看，机构频频发问："公司未来在机器人方向上有什么规划与布 局？""公司未来如何能继续保持在工业移动机器人行业的高速增长？" 在最新披露的公募基金四 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 (10th) Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and the Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award Ceremony were successfully held, highlighting the advancements and contributions in the lithium battery sector [2]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The event featured the participation of Zhou Fuhua, Chairman of Times United, as a special guest and award presenter for the "2025 Annual Lithium Battery Industry Contribution Award" [4]. - The invitation to Zhou Fuhua reflects the industry's recognition of Times United's strength and its authoritative position in the large cylindrical lithium battery sector [6]. Group 2: Company Focus and Achievements - Times United has focused on the research, production, and industrialization of large cylindrical lithium batteries for many years, achieving leading positions in energy density, safety performance, and cycle life [6]. - The company's core products, characterized by "high energy density, high safety factor, and long cycle life," have been successfully applied in various fields, including power batteries and outdoor energy storage [8]. - Looking ahead, Times United aims to continue focusing on the iteration of large cylindrical lithium battery technology and capacity upgrades to inject stronger momentum into the development of the lithium energy storage industry [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Chuaneng Power has experienced a stock price increase of 5.24% over the last four days, with a current price of 12.04 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 22.228 billion CNY [1] - Chuaneng Power, established on October 20, 1997, and listed on September 26, 2000, is primarily engaged in renewable energy generation, including wind power, solar power, and waste-to-energy, as well as lithium mining and processing, and environmental sanitation services [1] - The revenue composition of Chuaneng Power is as follows: wind power business accounts for 50.70%, environmental business for 34.63%, and lithium battery business for 14.67% [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Chuaneng Power, the Southern Fund's Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) reduced its holdings by 356,300 shares in the third quarter, now holding 16.0806 million shares, which is 0.87% of the circulating shares [2] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF has achieved a year-to-date return of 28.89% and a one-year return of 26.83%, ranking 1688 out of 4197 and 1768 out of 4157 respectively [2] - The fund manager of Southern CSI 500 ETF, Luo Wenjie, has a total fund asset scale of 170.251 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 149.38% [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector has regained momentum, with the chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a maximum intraday increase of 1.39% and closing up 1.01% [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Hangzhou Oxygen Plant, which surged over 5%, and other companies like Yara International and Zangge Mining, which rose over 4% [1] - The overall market sentiment is positive, driven by strong performances in potassium fertilizers, lithium batteries, and polyurethane segments [1] Group 2 - Investment enthusiasm in energy storage is high, supported by continuous capacity compensation policies and the ongoing development of renewable energy, which will sustain demand for energy storage [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a relatively low price-to-book ratio of 2.33, indicating good long-term investment potential [3] - The chemical industry is expected to face negative growth in capital expenditure starting in 2024, with supply-side contractions anticipated due to the "anti-involution" trend and the clearing of outdated overseas capacities [3] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [4] - Investors can also access the chemical ETF through linked funds, enhancing investment efficiency in the chemical sector [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry is expected to see a significant increase in demand for energy storage, projected to grow by 50%-60% in 2026, leading to a corresponding increase in lithium material demand, particularly lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) and separators [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate and Separators**: These materials are highlighted as preferred investment targets due to their short inventory cycles and high market share among leading companies, which grants them pricing power during supply-demand imbalances [2][4] - **Price Trends**: The spot price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has significantly increased since August, reaching 75,000 CNY/ton, with expectations for further price transmission to downstream manufacturers in November and December [6][7] - **Electrolyte Pricing**: The pricing model for electrolytes has shifted to monthly negotiations, with rising costs being gradually passed on to end-users. Additives like VC have seen price increases from 46,000 CNY/ton to 58,000 CNY/ton, indicating a broader trend of cost escalation across the supply chain [8] - **Separator Market Dynamics**: The separator market is experiencing tight production schedules and price increases, with significant price hikes observed in September and October. The transition to high-end 5-micron products is accelerating, further complicating production expansion [9] Company-Specific Insights - **Tianqi Materials**: The company has a production capacity of 105,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate and 50,000 tons of difluorophosphate, benefiting from rising prices. The company's cathode business, which has been in development since 2014-2015, is expected to show promising results by 2026 [10] - **Duo Fluorine**: This company has a capacity of 56,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate and is projected to ship nearly 60,000 tons by 2026. Their cylindrical lithium battery shipments are expected to exceed 10 GWh in 2025, indicating a shift from a drag on profits to a significant contributor [11] - **Haige Xingyuan**: A key player in the additives sector with a capacity of 770,000 tons, the company is expected to increase its additive production capacity to 15,000 tons by mid-2026, enhancing its competitive edge [12] Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the lithium materials sector remains positive, with expectations of price stability or increases in the coming quarters, despite potential demand fluctuations due to external factors [14][16] - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on the lithium materials sector, particularly lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes, as well as separators, copper and aluminum foils, and structural components. Companies like Tianqi, Duo Fluorine, and others are recommended for their strong fundamentals [17]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration of China have set a target for new energy storage installations to exceed 180 million kilowatts by 2027, which is expected to create significant market demand and has already been reflected in the capital market with many storage companies reaching new stock price highs [2][13]. Group 1: Market Demand and Production Capacity - The production lines of energy storage equipment manufacturers are currently operating at full capacity due to the booming market demand for energy storage components, particularly battery cells [5][9]. - The demand for energy storage battery cells is strong, with leading battery companies reporting full production and some orders extending into early next year [13]. - The new action plan aims to stimulate an investment of approximately 250 billion yuan in new projects by 2027 [13]. Group 2: Revenue Models and Market Participation - The action plan encourages new energy storage to participate in the electricity market and accelerate the establishment of pricing mechanisms [15]. - Energy storage projects are now able to generate multiple revenue streams by participating in various electricity market transactions, enhancing their operational capabilities and profitability [23][29]. - The National Grid's utilization of regional energy storage resources has demonstrated significant economic benefits, establishing a clear and sustainable market-based profit model for storage projects [25][27]. Group 3: Cost Trends and Future Outlook - The cost of lithium battery storage systems has decreased by approximately 80% compared to three years ago, with some regions achieving a cost of less than 0.2 yuan per kilowatt-hour [43]. - The demand for lithium carbonate, a key raw material for battery production, is expected to remain strong, with prices currently ranging from 72,000 to 75,000 yuan per ton [37]. - By 2035, China's total installed capacity for wind and solar power is targeted to reach 360 million kilowatts, which will drive significant demand for energy storage systems [45].

Group 1 - The company has indicated that its revenue share from lithium battery energy storage business is showing an upward trend compared to the same period last year [2] - The company's lithium negative electrode business is expected to see an increase in the shipment proportion of energy storage negative material products by the first half of 2025 [2] - The interaction with investors highlights the company's focus on expanding its presence in the lithium battery sector [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company has shown signs of stabilization and recovery in operations, with sufficient orders on hand, which may lay the foundation for rapid year-on-year growth in the second half of the year [2][11] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.315 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.92%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 27 million, a year-on-year decrease of 32.66% [5][11] - The company's robot business continues to grow, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 20% in the first half of 2025 [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 719 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.56%, and a net profit of 20 million, a year-on-year decrease of 41.07% [5][11] - The company's domestic business revenue for H1 2025 was 728 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.84%, while overseas revenue was 587 million, a slight increase of 0.52% [11] - The overall gross margin remained stable at 35.0%, despite a slight decrease in the proportion of high-margin overseas business [11] Business Segments - The company's brushless motor business achieved revenue of 129 million, maintaining growth, primarily driven by automation, robotics, and semiconductor sectors [11] - The motion control system business saw a revenue increase of 44.07% year-on-year, with the servo system business growing by 48.94% [11] - The company's robot application segment continued to grow steadily, contributing to the overall positive outlook [11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 81 million and 118 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 332x and 229x [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report reviews the six unilateral market trends of lithium carbonate futures contracts since their listing on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in July 2023, and summarizes the driving factors and main industrial contradictions at each time point. As of July 30, 2025, the lithium carbonate contract index has declined by 71.3% since listing, with a maximum decline of about 76%, and experienced four significant rebounds, three of which were around 30% [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Excess Expectation Dominance & Oversold Rebound - After the withdrawal of the new - energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy at the end of 2022, the downstream of the lithium - battery industry chain actively destocked from January to April 2023, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 170,000 yuan/ton. It rebounded in late April due to downstream restocking, then fell again from early July [4]. - From July to December 2023, the market was dominated by the expectation of oversupply of lithium resources. Global sample mines increased production by about 1.02 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2023, a 32% increase from 2022. Although global lithium - battery shipments maintained a 27% growth, supply increased more rapidly. The lithium price declined smoothly, with limited supply disturbances and rebound heights [4]. - In mid - November 2023, the lithium carbonate contract accelerated its decline. In early December, it reached the expected cost - support range of 80,000 - 100,000 yuan, then the main contract LC2401 rebounded from around 85,000 yuan to 115,000 yuan and fluctuated in the range for three months [5]. 3.2 Phased Supply - Demand Mismatch - Around the Spring Festival in 2024, low lithium prices reduced the salt factory's production enthusiasm. The domestic lithium carbonate enterprise's February开工率 was about 35%, a significant drop from 43% in January. However, lithium - battery material enterprises were approaching the production peak season, resulting in a short - term supply - demand mismatch. After the Spring Festival, lithium - battery enterprises rushed to buy lithium carbonate, and on February 21, news of environmental disturbances in Jiangxi mines boosted the price. The lithium carbonate index rebounded by about 28.4% in 10 days until March 1 [6]. 3.3 Continuous Inventory Accumulation Suppresses Price - After the rebound in 2024, the lithium carbonate price fluctuated between 110,000 - 120,000 yuan per ton from March to April. Lithium salt factories' production enthusiasm increased due to improved profits. From March, domestic lithium carbonate production increased continuously, with monthly环比增速 of 31.8%, 23.6%, and 18.2% from March to May. After the May Day holiday, downstream demand entered the off - season, and inventory reached a new high on May 9. The lithium carbonate contract entered a new decline cycle, with an index decline of about 36% from May 10 to September 6, 2024 [8][10]. 3.4 Exceeding Demand Expectation & Early Stockpiling - From October 22 to November 13, 2024, the lithium carbonate index rose about 20%. The extension of the lithium - battery material production peak season and early stockpiling by downstream enterprises were the main drivers. The new - energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly in September and October 2024, and lithium - battery enterprises may have rushed to export products to avoid potential US tariffs. As of November 7, 2024, the domestic lithium carbonate inventory had decreased by nearly 22,000 tons from the August peak. Some downstream enterprises stockpiled in advance, and some lithium resource enterprises lowered their production and sales targets, boosting market sentiment [13][14]. 3.5 Cost Collapse & Commodity Pessimism Resonance - From March to June 2025, the pressure on lithium salt processing profits was transmitted to the mining end, and the price of lithium concentrate dropped nearly 30% in three months. The prices of lithium ore and lithium salt declined spirally, and cost support failed. Macroeconomic expectations weakened, and the demand for lithium carbonate was affected by Trump's tariff policy, the end of the "Green New Deal," and domestic policy adjustments. From March 20 to June 23, 2025, the lithium carbonate index declined by about 21.6% [18]. 3.6 Sentiment Boost for Oversold Varieties - The lithium carbonate index rebounded on June 23, 2025, with a range increase of 34.5% until July 25, approaching the annual high. The supply - demand relationship did not reverse significantly, but the commodity market had strong repair expectations, and long - position funds dominated the market. Some commodities started to rebound in June, and events in the mining end, such as lithium mica nuclear storage in Jiangxi and mine shutdowns, boosted sentiment. The lithium carbonate contract index rose about 24% from July 14 to July 25, then declined due to increased market risk [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The human-shaped robot sector is experiencing significant domestic and international resonance, indicating a strong growth potential. The valuation of leading lithium battery storage companies is currently low, presenting a potential investment opportunity [1][4] - The report highlights a robust demand for energy storage solutions, particularly in emerging markets, and anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20-40% for global energy storage installations from 2025 to 2028 [4][5] Industry Trends - The electric equipment sector has shown varied performance, with specific segments like nuclear power and electric vehicles experiencing growth, while others like wind and photovoltaic sectors have faced declines [4] - The report notes significant developments in the human-shaped robot market, including strategic partnerships and product deliveries, which are expected to drive growth in this sector [4] - The electric vehicle market is witnessing a surge in sales, with major manufacturers reporting substantial year-on-year increases in production and sales figures [4] Company Performance - Notable companies such as Ningde Times, BYD, and Sunshine Power are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential, with specific revenue and profit forecasts provided for 2024 and 2025 [6][8] - The report emphasizes the financial performance of various companies, indicating a mix of growth and challenges, with some companies like Longi Green Energy facing significant declines in revenue and profit [4][6] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a focus on key sectors such as robotics, energy storage, and electric vehicles, identifying specific companies that are expected to benefit from market trends and technological advancements [6][10] - It suggests that the human-shaped robot market is at a pivotal point, akin to the early stages of the electric vehicle market, with substantial long-term growth potential [10]