新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 矿端复产消息扰动，碳酸锂盘面偏弱震荡运行 市场分析 2025-12-09，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于94580元/吨，收于92800元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-1.23%。当日 成交量为512215手，持仓量为575421手，前一交易日持仓量593129手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-1910元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单12920手，较上个交易日变化-200手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价91100-94400元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报价 89900-90800元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1168美元/吨，较前一日变化-5美元/吨。据SMM数据， 下游材料厂持谨慎观望的态度，采购意愿不强，市场成交清淡。目前，上下游企业之间的年度长协谈判仍在持续， 博弈焦点集中于明年的价格系数与采购量级。供应端来看，伴随部分新产线逐步投产以及下游需求对生产的拉动， 预计12月国内碳酸锂产量仍将保持增长，环比增幅约为3%。需求方面，12月新能源汽车销量预计仍表现亮眼；储 能市场则延续供需两旺态势， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-05 库存继续去化，碳酸锂盘面宽幅震荡 市场分析 2025-12-04，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于93800元/吨，收于93700元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-1.26%。当日 成交量为663458手，持仓量为560629手，前一交易日持仓量562836手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为760元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单10422手，较上个交易日变化770手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价92200-95800元/吨，较前一交易日变化-350元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价90500-92600元/吨，较前一交易日变化-350元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1175美元/吨，较前一日变化-30美元/吨。据 SMM数据，下游材料厂询价和成交行为趋于活跃。目前，上下游企业之间的年度长协谈判仍在持续，博弈焦点集 中于明年的价格系数与采购量级。供应端来看，伴随部分新产线逐步投产以及下游需求对生产的拉动，预计12月 国内碳酸锂产量仍将保持增长，环比增幅约为3%。需求方面，12月新能源汽车销量预计仍表现亮眼；储能市场则 延续供需两旺态势，供应偏紧格局依旧。电芯 ...

碳酸锂去库放缓，下游维持刚需采购 市场分析 2025-12-02，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于96840元/吨，收于96560元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.72%。当日 成交量为454290手，持仓量为552239手，前一交易日持仓量543633手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-2240元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单8992手，较上个交易日变化770手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价92300-96500元/吨，较前一交易日变化50元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价90800-93100元/吨，较前一交易日变化50元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1215美元/吨，较前一日变化-8美元/吨。据SMM 数据，下游材料厂多有长协订单与客供渠道支撑正常生产，散单采购仍以刚需为主，市场成交清淡。目前，上下 游企业之间的年度长协谈判仍在持续，博弈焦点集中于明年的价格系数与采购量级。供应端来看，伴随部分新产 线逐步投产以及下游需求对生产的拉动，预计12月国内碳酸锂产量仍将保持增长，环比增幅约为3%。需求方面， 12月新能源汽车销量仍较好；储能市场则延续供需两旺态势，供应偏紧格局依旧。电芯及正极材料排产在 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The recent inventory has been continuously decreasing, providing some support to the market. However, when the price reaches 80,000 yuan/ton, the upstream has a strong willingness to hedge. The resumption of production at the mine end is in progress. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and the mine resumes production, the inventory may shift from destocking to stockpiling, and the market may decline at that time [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 6, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 was 79,480 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 80,500 yuan/ton, a 1.95% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 582,033 lots, and the open interest was 471,983 lots, compared with 453,260 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was 1,300 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,420 lots, a decrease of 410 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500 - 82,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,800 - 78,600 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 925 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market transactions were slightly dull, and downstream material enterprises maintained the rhythm of on - demand procurement [1]. - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of both the spodumene and salt lake ends above 60%. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the same level as in October [1]. - In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector (both commercial and passenger vehicles) is growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight [1]. - This week, the demand for power batteries continued to operate at a high level, and the cell prices were relatively stable. In the passenger vehicle sector, domestic terminal sales remained high, and some mainstream car companies increased promotion and production scheduling, driving a steady increase in power battery installation demand. In the commercial vehicle sector, affected by the expected vehicle purchase tax halving policy next year, some demand was advanced to the fourth quarter of this year, driving a significant increase in power battery orders [2]. - According to the latest weekly statistics, the weekly production increased by 454 tons to 21,534 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 3,405 tons to 123,753 tons. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and intermediate links all decreased, indicating strong support from the consumer end recently [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end, and choose the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices [3]. - Inter - period: No strategy is provided. - Cross - variety: No strategy is provided. - Spot - futures: No strategy is provided. - Options: No strategy is provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current short - term supply - demand pattern is favorable, with inventory continuously decreasing and the futures market having some support. It is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate. However, if the mining end resumes production and consumption weakens, the market may decline [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On October 20, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 76,260 yuan/ton and closed at 75,700 yuan/ton, with a - 0.08% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 169,108 lots, and the open interest was 138,434 lots (159,000 lots the previous day). The basis was - 1,960 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 30,705 lots, an increase of 19 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 - 74,500 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,150 - 72,350 yuan/ton, also up 650 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 860 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The downstream material factory's operating rate is continuously rising, and demand supports spot transactions. New production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October is expected to continue to grow. The power market for new energy vehicles (both commercial and passenger) is growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand [1]. Import and Export Data - In September 2025, China imported 19,597 tons of lithium carbonate, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase. 11,000 tons were imported from Chile (55% of the total), and 6,948 tons were imported from Argentina (35% of the total). Exports were 151 tons, a 59% month - on - month decrease and a 9% year - on - year decrease [2]. - In September 2025, China imported 710,600 tons of spodumene, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. From January to September 2025, the total import volume was 5.576 million tons, a 37% year - on - year increase [2]. Strategy - The futures market showed a weak and slight fluctuation on the day. Lithium ore imports increased significantly, lithium salt imports decreased slightly month - on - month, and overall imports were relatively good. The rapid reduction of warehouse receipts slowed down, and warehouse receipts began to increase slightly. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern is good, and the market is expected to fluctuate. After the mining end resumes production and consumption weakens, the market may decline [3]. - For single - side trading, short - term range operations are recommended. If the market rebounds significantly, sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The current short - term supply - demand pattern of the lithium carbonate market is favorable, with inventory continuously decreasing and the futures market having certain support. It is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate. However, after the resumption of production at the mining end and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 74,580 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 73,420 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.05% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 396,645 lots, and the open interest was 271,624 lots, a decrease of 9,640 lots from the previous trading day. The current basis was 430 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 38,909 lots, a decrease of 575 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,200 - 74,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 - 72,200 yuan/ton, also an increase of 350 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 833 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories were cautiously waiting and seeing, with the overall market trading activity remaining stable. As it was the peak demand season, downstream material factories had certain inventory - building needs before the National Day and were more willing to purchase at relatively low prices [1]. - In August, China imported 22,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 58% and a year - on - year increase of 25%. Among them, 15,600 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 71% of the total imports, and 4,000 tons were imported from Argentina, accounting for 19%. From January to August, China's cumulative imports of lithium carbonate were 153,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.5% [1]. - In August, China's lithium spodumene imports were about 619,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.5%, equivalent to 56,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). From Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe, the combined import volume accounted for 70.2%, with some showing significant decreases: Australia's imports were 212,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.5%; Nigeria's imports were 105,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.6%; Zimbabwe's imports were 118,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84%. Imports from Mali and Brazil increased significantly, with 73,000 tons and 18,000 tons respectively, due to concentrated shipments [2]. Strategy - Futures market: It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate. After the resumption of production at the mining end and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline. For unilateral trading, short - term range operations can be carried out, and selling hedging can be done at high prices. There are no strategies for options, inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, and spot - futures operations [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; No positions recommended for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options [5] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern is improving with reduced inventory and production. Although some mines have obtained safety production licenses, there is still uncertainty in subsequent mine approvals. The lithium carbonate price may rise after a decline due to support from the consumer side, but the short - term market will be volatile, and participants should manage risks [3] Market Analysis - On August 27, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 79,260 yuan/ton and closed at 78,860 yuan/ton, a - 0.23% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 729,645 lots, and the open interest was 351,322 lots. The basis was 1,400 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,477 lots, a change of 787 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 79,600 - 83,600 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate at 78,700 - 79,900 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 920 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price of lithium carbonate continued to decline [1] - Due to pre - stockpiling by some downstream material factories, the weekly procurement volume decreased. The downstream is cautious, waiting for price drops. Despite this, the "Golden September and Silver October" season provides some rigid support for demand [1] Production and Inventory - Weekly production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons. Production from spodumene increased, while that from mica decreased. Weekly inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. Downstream inventory increased significantly, and smelter inventory decreased [2] Strategy - Pay attention to mine operations. Lithium carbonate may rise after a decline, but short - term market fluctuations are large, and participants should manage risks [3]