交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 观点和策略 2 基本面 3 技术分析 4 产业链梳理总结 沪镍&不锈钢周报（11.10-11.14） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 一、观点和策略 沪镍观点：本周镍价震荡偏弱运行，且向下承压，主力空头持续增仓表现。产业链上，镍 矿价格坚挺，前期受台风影响部分港口出货受到影响，近期慢慢恢复，印尼2026年RKAB 配额预计3.19亿吨，预期供应宽松。镍铁价格继续回落，成本线重心再降。不锈钢库存回 升，供应表现过剩。原生镍有新的产能投产，同时有一部分减产，短期产量或有下降，但 中长线依然供应强劲，库存持续垒加。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车有所回升， 但总体提振有限。中长线过剩格局不变。 操作策略： 沪镍主力：震荡偏弱运行，向下承压，前低有一定支撑。 不锈钢主力：向下承压， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 0.95%. The adjustment of tariff measures on US - imported goods and China's October official manufacturing PMI data were released. Domestically, the economy is resilient with rising prosperity in new energy and semiconductors, while overseas uncertainties remain high with a high - probability of future interest rate cuts. [6] - In terms of supply, RKAB approval in 2025 provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but new policy risks still exist. In September, China's nickel imports were large, nickel - iron production was low in China and high in Indonesia. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and production increased slightly in September. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production declined from a high level. [6] - Regarding demand, stainless - steel production improved in September and is expected to have a mild rebound in October. Domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high, and the inventory increased after a decrease. In the new - energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials increased significantly from August to September. [6] - In terms of inventory, LME nickel inventory, SHFE inventory, and refined nickel social inventory all increased slightly last week. [6] - In the short term, the RKAB approval in 2025 provides raw material security, but new policy risks remain. Trade disputes affect market sentiment. Fundamentally, imported nickel remains at a high level, inventory is increasing, and Indonesian policies may affect supply but have not had an actual impact yet. Downstream stainless - steel production and inventory have marginally improved, and nickel prices will generally fluctuate within a range. [6] Group 3: Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoint: After considering supply, demand, and inventory factors, nickel prices will fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading on the SHFE nickel 2512 contract and sell out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to changes in the mining end, stainless - steel production, trade disputes, and Indonesian exports in the future [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industrial chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and their downstream applications in stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [8]. 3. Futures and Spot Markets - The report mentions the LME nickel premium and discount and the SHFE electrolytic nickel main - contract basis, but no specific analysis is provided [10]. 4. Supply Side Nickel Ore - In 2024, China's nickel ore imports decreased by 21.7% year - on - year to 36.5763 million tons due to significant nickel - iron production cuts. In August - September 2025, imports increased seasonally, reaching 6.3467 million and 6.1144 million tons respectively [18]. Nickel Pig Iron - In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron production was 1.5138 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, production was 156,500 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron production was 296,400 tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In September 2025, production was 21,700 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease and still at a low level [21]. - In August - September 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 874,000 and 1.085 million tons respectively, showing a significant month - on - month increase. In September 2025, nickel - pig - iron inventory was 19,900 tons, remaining stable [25]. Refined Nickel - With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel capacity, pure - nickel supply expanded in 2024. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production was 33,240 tons, a decline from a high level. In July - August 2025, the apparent consumption was 29,883.05 and 37,551.45 tons respectively [28]. - In September 2025, China's nickel imports were 2.786 million tons, at a high level, and exports were 170,000 tons, with a slight month - on - month decline [31]. 5. Intermediates Wet - Process Intermediates - In September 2025, Indonesia's MHP production was 41,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [37]. High - Grade Nickel Matte - Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production growth was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, production was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In August - September 2025, production was 20,300 and 21,300 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there will be more planned intermediate - product capacities from 2025 - 2027 [43]. Nickel Sulfate - In September 2025, China's nickel sulfate production was 39,045.4 tons, a month - on - month increase. In August - September 2025, nickel sulfate imports were 30,292 and 29,533 tons respectively [47]. 6. Demand Side Stainless - Steel Demand - In 2024, the release of stainless - steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 stainless - steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons, showing an increase after a decline from a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,549 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase [52]. Cathode - Material Demand - In terms of power - battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. Driven by the trade - in policy, the total terminal demand is expected to continue growing in 2025. In September 2025, the production of ternary cathode materials was 75,900 tons, continuing to rebound from a low level [59]. 7. Inventory Side - As of October 31, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 48,746 tons, a slight increase from the previous week [64]. - As of November 5, 2025, LME nickel inventory was 252,750 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. As of November 6, 2025, SHFE inventory was 32,689 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices showed weak performance, with downstream buyers making purchases based on rigid demand and trading volume being average. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and freight rates also showed a stable - to - rising trend due to the increase in coal prices. Ferronickel prices continued to rise slightly, with the cost line moving up further, but overall, ferronickel enterprises were still in the red. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline, and inventory reduction during the "Golden September and Silver October" period was satisfactory. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the loading of ternary batteries continued to decline, having limited impact on increasing nickel demand. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, while the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: This week, nickel prices were weak, downstream demand was based on rigid needs, and trading was average. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices were firm, freight rates were stable and rising, ferronickel prices rose slightly but enterprises were still losing money, stainless steel inventories decreased, new energy vehicle data was good but ternary battery loading declined, and the long - term oversupply remained [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore prices remained unchanged this week compared to last week. Battery - grade nickel sulfate prices increased by 0.72%, while electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices remained flat. Low - grade ferronickel prices remained unchanged, and high - grade ferronickel prices increased by 0.52%. Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory prices all decreased slightly. 304 stainless steel prices increased by 0.72% [13][14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Nickel ore prices and freight rates remained unchanged from last week. As of September 18, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.0011 million wet tons, an increase of 1.01% from the previous period. In July 2025, nickel ore imports were 5.0058 million tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month and the same period last year. This week, the nickel ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with prices stable and freight rates firm due to rising coal prices. Indonesian supply remained abundant [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and downstream buyers made purchases as needed, with overall trading being average. Spot premiums and discounts were slightly adjusted. In the long - term, supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply situation will not change. Domestic new energy may be a new demand driver, and prices may be under pressure in the long - term but will not deviate far from the cost line, with the center of gravity likely to shift downwards. LME and Shanghai nickel inventories both increased [22][25][38]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - Ferronickel prices showed a stable - to - rising trend. In August 2025, China's ferronickel production decreased slightly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. In July 2025, ferronickel imports decreased compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year. In August, ferronickel inventories were 218,900 physical tons, equivalent to 21,700 nickel tons [42][45][51]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - 304 stainless steel prices increased this week. In August 2025, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.3156 million tons, with the output of the 300 - series increasing by 2.34% compared to the previous month. The latest data showed that stainless steel imports were 73,000 tons and exports were 416,300 tons. As of September 19, stainless steel social inventories decreased compared to the previous period [56][60][66]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with significant year - on - year growth. From January to August, production and sales reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, also showing substantial year - on - year growth. In August, the total output of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 37.3%. However, the loading of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year [71][74]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line chart, prices fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. Open interest decreased as prices declined, indicating some reduction in long positions. The MACD red bar fluctuated slightly above the zero axis, showing a lack of clear direction. The KDJ was at the mid - level, also lacking direction. Prices mainly oscillated within a narrow range [77]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - The impact of different sectors on nickel prices varies: nickel ore has a neutral impact; ferronickel has a neutral impact; refined nickel has a slightly bearish impact; stainless steel has a slightly bullish impact; and the new energy sector has a neutral impact [80]. - Trading strategies suggest that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [82].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [3] 2. Core View - The nickel price is expected to rebound under macro - support, but the oversupply fundamentals remain unchanged, and the price may still face pressure after the sentiment fades [8] 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Nickel Price Movement**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly, with the main contract rising 0.67% to 122,440. The average premium of Jinchuan No.1 nickel decreased by 50 to 2,150 yuan/ton, and the spot premium range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply and Price of Nickel Ore**: The impact of precipitation in the main producing areas of the Philippines in the third quarter is limited, and shipments will remain at a high level. The approved quota of RKAB in Indonesia is as high as 310 million wet tons, with a strong expectation of increased nickel ore supply and downward price pressure [8] - **NPI Price**: Due to the short - term high price of nickel ore, most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 921.5 yuan/nickel point on the 12th [8] - **Nickel Salt Price**: Supported by cost and rigid restocking of precursors, the nickel salt price continued to rise. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate on the 12th increased by 60 to 27,510 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Indonesian Investment in Nickel Downstream**: Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through syndicated loans [9][10] - **Battery Energy Storage Projects** - Bulgaria launched a 124 - megawatt/496.2 - megawatt - hour battery energy storage system [10] - Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with the total approved storage capacity exceeding 1.6 gigawatts [10] - **Solar Cell Innovation**: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices showed a strong trend. At the beginning of the week, downstream procurement was decent, but as prices rose, trading volume became lighter. There was an arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs during the week, increasing supply. In the industrial chain, ore prices remained stable, and ferronickel prices rose slightly, with the cost line stabilizing and rebounding slightly. Stainless - steel inventory decreased slightly. New - energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations declined. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, while the main contract of stainless steel will run with a slightly upward trend [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Outlook**: Nickel prices were strong this week. Downstream trading turned light as prices rose. Supply increased with the arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs. The long - term oversupply pattern persists. The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [8][9]. - **Stainless - steel Outlook**: The main contract of stainless steel will run with a slightly upward trend [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Nickel ore prices remained stable, with red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% at $56 and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% at $50, showing no change. Sulfuric acid nickel prices rose slightly, with battery - grade up 1.89% and electroplating - grade unchanged. Ferronickel prices were stable to rising, with low - grade ferronickel in Shandong unchanged at 3200 yuan/ton and high - grade up 0.54% to 925 yuan/nickel point. Electrolytic nickel prices increased by about 0.96% - 0.98%. Stainless - steel prices rose 0.82%, with 304 stainless steel at 13787.5 yuan/ton [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: Nickel ore prices were flat compared to last week, and freight rates decreased by $0.5/wet ton. On August 7, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 10.3334 million wet tons, up 3.92%. In June 2025, nickel ore imports were 4.3466 million tons, up 10.68% month - on - month and down 9.21% year - on - year. Currently, the market is mostly in a wait - and - see mode, and with inventory piling up, nickel ore may face continued pressure [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated upward, and downstream trading became lighter. In July 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, up 4.74% month - on - month and 24.57% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 17,010.151 tons, down 3.00% month - on - month and up 132.29% year - on - year. LME and SHFE inventories increased [22][30][33]. - **Ferronickel Market**: Ferronickel prices were stable to rising. In July 2025, China's ferronickel production was 22,900 tons of metal, down 1.69% month - on - month and 10.63% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 1.041 million tons, up 22.8% month - on - month and 50.0% year - on - year [44][47][50]. - **Stainless - steel Market**: Stainless - steel prices rose, with 304 stainless steel up 0.82%. In June, stainless - steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with 300 - series production down 2.28% month - on - month. On August 8, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.1063 million tons, down 0.49 million tons [57][62][69]. - **New - energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In June 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million vehicles respectively, up 26.4% and 26.7% year - on - year. In June, the total output of power and other batteries was 129.2 GWh, up 4.6% month - on - month and 51.4% year - on - year [74][79]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line chart, prices will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with little change in positions. The MACD green bar is shrinking, and the KDJ shows an upward trend. The support and resistance levels of the Fibonacci retracement are effective, and prices will move in a narrow range [82]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral to bearish. The ore market is quiet, and most players are in a wait - and - see mode [85]. - **Ferronickel**: Neutral to bearish. Ferronickel prices are rising slightly, and the cost line is rising slightly [85]. - **Refined Nickel**: Neutral. The long - term oversupply pattern remains, and social inventory has increased [85]. - **Stainless - steel**: Neutral. Costs have risen slightly, and inventory has decreased [85]. - **New - energy**: Neutral. Production data are good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations has decreased [85].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report predicts that the nickel and stainless - steel market will continue to fluctuate. The short - term price increase drive of the nickel ore is limited due to the rising inventory from the Philippines. The stainless - steel market is also in a volatile state, with weak demand suppressing the upside. The new energy chain maintains a production - to - order situation, and the downstream demand is average. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document and the negotiation between Indonesia and the US on nickel resources [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Forecast and Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Management Strategy**: For inventory management, when the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value decline, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures (60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2), sell call options (50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2), and buy far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan. For procurement management, when worried about raw material price increases, it is recommended to sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2]. 2. Core Contradiction - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel returns to a fluctuating state, and the macro - level sentiment fades. The inventory of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, weakening the support for nickel ore. The short - term price increase drive of the ore end is limited. The transaction price of nickel iron has回调 again, and the latest transaction price of iron plants in August has moved up. The stainless - steel market also returns to a fluctuating state, with large factories still having the sentiment of reducing production, and weak demand suppressing the upside in the short term. The new energy chain maintains a production - to - order situation, and the downstream demand is average. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document and the negotiation between Indonesia and the US on nickel resources [3]. 3.利多 and 利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: The cobalt mine ban in Congo continues; Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and add elements such as iron and cobalt; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the US may involve the follow - up trend of the nickel industry chain; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a growth work plan for industries such as steel and non - ferrous metals [4]. - **利空 Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and the inventory reduction is slow [4]. 4. Market Data - **Nickel Market**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, and the seasonal inventory of nickel ore has increased, weakening the bottom support. The price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 123,370 yuan/ton, and the price of LME nickel 3M is 15,530 US dollars/ton. The trading volume is 133,758 lots, and the open interest is 95,734 lots. The warehouse receipt number is 21,971 tons, with a decrease of 122 tons compared with the previous period [5]. - **Stainless - steel Market**: The price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,900 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 226,003 lots, and the open interest is 122,384 lots. The warehouse receipt number is 103,415 tons, with a decrease of 60 tons compared with the previous period [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 40,338 tons, an increase of 1,165 tons compared with the previous period; the LME nickel inventory is 205,872 tons, a decrease of 2,220 tons compared with the previous period; the stainless - steel social inventory is 982.7 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons compared with the previous period; the nickel pig iron inventory is 33,233 tons, a decrease of 4,301 tons compared with the previous period [7].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The intraday trend of Shanghai Nickel was strong, rising and then falling, and pulling up again at the end of the session, mainly affected by macro - level sentiment. The inventory of nickel ore arriving in ports from the Philippines increased, weakening the support of nickel ore, and there was limited driving force for short - term price increases at the ore end. The transaction price of ferronickel decreased again during the day, but the latest transactions of iron plants in August showed a certain upward shift. With the stabilization of ferronickel, it would support the subsequent downstream prices. Stainless steel was also affected by the market and showed a strong trend. Large manufacturers still had the sentiment of reducing production, and spot prices generally followed the increase, but the policy had limited actual impact on stainless steel, and the spot - end transactions did not improve significantly with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The new energy link still maintained a production - based - on - sales situation. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document and the negotiation trend of nickel resources between Indonesia and the United States [3]. - There were positive factors such as the continuation of the cobalt mine ban in Congo, Indonesia's APNI's plan to revise the HPM formula by adding elements like iron and cobalt, shortening the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year, potential impact of Indonesia - US tariff negotiations on the nickel industry chain, and the upcoming release of the growth work plan for industries such as steel and non - ferrous metals by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Negative factors included stainless steel entering the traditional off - season of demand with slow inventory reduction [4]. - The contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepened, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. The inventory of pure nickel was high, and the seasonal inventory of nickel ore increased, weakening the bottom support [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Strategy - The price range forecast of Shanghai Nickel was 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - For inventory management, when the product sales price declined and there was a risk of inventory value reduction, one could short Shanghai Nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a selling ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2; sell call options with a selling ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2; or buy far - month Shanghai Nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3. For procurement management, when the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it could sell put options with a selling ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1; or buy out - of - the - money call options with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [2]. Market Data Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - For nickel, the latest values of Shanghai Nickel main continuous, continuous one, continuous two, and continuous three were 123,530, 123,720, 123,810, and 124,050 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1%, 0.83%, 0.81%, and 0.81%. The LME nickel 3M was at 15,510 US dollars/ton, up 0.85%. The trading volume was 109,036 lots, down 19.11%, the open interest was 35,618 lots, down 14.21%, the number of warehouse receipts was 22,093 tons, down 0.08%, and the basis of the main contract was - 1,250 yuan/ton, up 197.6% [5]. - For stainless steel, the latest values of stainless steel main continuous, continuous one, continuous two, and continuous three were 12,930, 12,930, 12,960, and 13,005 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0%, 0.19%, 0.15%, and 0.19%. The trading volume was 192,092 lots, down 24.69%, the open interest was 124,058 lots, up 1.17%, the number of warehouse receipts was 103,475 tons, down 0.12%, and the basis of the main contract was 240 yuan/ton, down 9.43% [6]. Inventory Data - The domestic social inventory of nickel was 40,338 tons, an increase of 1,165 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 208,092 tons, an increase of 216 tons; the stainless steel social inventory was 982.7 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons; and the nickel pig iron inventory was 33,233 tons, a decrease of 4,301 tons [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was strong, mainly influenced by macro - level sentiment. On the fundamentals, the arrival inventory from the Philippines increased, weakening the support of nickel ore. The second - phase nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia in July also decreased due to weak downstream demand. The intraday transaction price of nickel iron had a certain correction, and the latest transaction price of iron plants in August moved up. Attention should be paid to the impact of the subsequent decreasing trend of nickel iron supply. Stainless steel was also strong due to the speech of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, with large - scale factories still having a sentiment of production reduction, and spot prices generally rising. The new energy chain still maintains a production - based - on - sales situation. Macro - level attention should be paid to the follow - up of the document issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the negotiation trend of nickel resources between Indonesia and the United States [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Strategy - The price range forecast of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a current volatility historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - Inventory management strategies include: when the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); sell call options (50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); buy far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs (hedging ratio based on the procurement plan, strategy level 3) [2] - Procurement management strategies include: when the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, sell put options (hedging ratio based on the procurement plan, strategy level 1); buy out - of - the - money call options (hedging ratio based on the procurement plan, strategy level 3) [2] 2. Core Contradictions - The intraday strength of Shanghai nickel is affected by macro - level sentiment. The increase in the arrival inventory from the Philippines weakens the support of nickel ore, and the decrease in the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price is due to weak downstream demand. The transaction price of nickel iron has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the supply trend. Stainless steel is strong due to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's speech, and the new energy chain maintains a production - based - on - sales situation [3] 3.利多 and 利空 Analysis - Positive factors include the continuous ban on cobalt mines in the Congo, Indonesia's plan to revise the HPM formula, the shortening of the nickel ore quota license period in Indonesia, the potential impact of the tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the United States on the nickel industry chain, and the upcoming growth work plan for industries such as steel and non - ferrous metals issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [4] - Negative factors include that stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow [4] 4. Market Data - Nickel disk daily data: The latest values of Shanghai nickel main - continuous, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts increased by 2%, 1.76%, 1.77%, and 1.77% respectively compared with the previous day. The LME nickel 3M increased by 1.83%. The trading volume increased by 42.94%, the open interest decreased by 17.01%, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 2.87%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 66.9% [5] - Stainless steel disk daily data: The latest values of stainless steel main - continuous, continuous - one, and continuous - two contracts increased by 1%, 1.41%, and 1.37% respectively compared with the previous day, while the continuous - three contract decreased by 0.08%. The trading volume increased by 57.32%, the open interest increased by 13.93%, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 6.31%, and the basis of the main contract increased by 1.47% [6] - Nickel industry inventory data: The domestic social inventory increased by 1,165 tons, the LME nickel inventory increased by 300 tons, the stainless steel social inventory decreased by 8.1 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 4,301 tons [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The current performance of each link in the nickel industry chain continues to weaken, and the market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The current rebound is only temporary, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long at low levels [9]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 16th, Shanghai nickel fluctuated around the 120,000 integer mark. The main contract 2508 closed up 0.91% at 120,550. The total open interest of the index decreased by 12,098 to 151,318 lots [9]. - In the off - season, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, with enterprises purchasing on demand. The spot supply is sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,050 yuan/ton, and the premium range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [9]. - The support of the ore end in the front - end of the industrial chain is weakening. The premium of Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore has started to decline, and there is a further downward risk for the ore price in the future [9]. - The overall bargaining range of ferronickel has moved down, ferronickel plants' losses have intensified, and some have cut production. Although tariffs do not directly affect nickel imports and exports, the market is worried about dragging down the external demand of the stainless - steel end. It is the traditional consumption off - season with high inventory, and the high temperature in summer further weakens the demand of some downstream industries [9]. - On the 16th, the price of nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,220 yuan. The demand for energy batteries is in the off - season with limited support, and it is expected to remain weak [9]. 2. Industry News - On July 8, the Secretary - General of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2025 was only 120 million tons, while the approved quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons. The main reason for the insufficient production was the impact of the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines [10]. - Since January 2025, the cost pressure of the Indonesian nickel industry has continued to rise due to policies such as the Domestic Sales Obligation (DMO), the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio from B40 to B50, new export fees, and the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) [11]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [11]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel (Ni) contact and almost no silver (Ag), which significantly reduces the silver usage while maintaining high efficiency [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland, which will help Scotland achieve its energy goals [11].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report - Date: July 16, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current nickel industry chain is showing continuous weakness. After a brief rebound, the nickel market has turned down again, and it is expected to continue its weak trend. The decline in the price of refined nickel, the weakening support at the ore end, the downward shift in the bargaining range of ferronickel, the high inventory in the stainless - steel market, and the weak demand for nickel sulfate all contribute to this situation [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Performance**: On the 15th, Shanghai nickel prices fell again, breaking through the 120,000 - yuan integer mark, with an intraday decline of 1.15%. The main contract 2508 closed at 119,380. The total open interest of the index increased by 14,499 to 163,416 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: In the off - season, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, with enterprises mainly purchasing on demand. The spot supply is sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,050 yuan/ton, and the premium range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 to 300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ore End**: The support at the ore end in the industrial chain is weakening. The premium of Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore has started to decline, and there is a further risk of ore price decline [8]. - **Ferronickel**: The overall bargaining range of ferronickel has shifted downward, ferronickel plants' losses have intensified, and some have cut production. Although tariffs do not directly affect nickel imports and exports, the market is worried about the impact on the external demand of the stainless - steel end. During the traditional consumption off - season, inventory is high, and high summer temperatures further weaken downstream demand [8]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: On the 15th, the price of nickel sulfate dropped significantly by 200 to 27,220 yuan. The main reason is that the demand for energy batteries is in the off - season with limited support, and it is expected to remain weak [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Indonesian Nickel Production**: In 2025, the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia was only 120 million tons, while the approved quota for the first half of the year was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual production. The main reason is the impact of the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia still imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. Since January 2025, the cost pressure on the Indonesian nickel industry has continued to rise due to policies such as the Domestic Marketing Obligation (DMO), the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio, and new export fees [9][11]. - **Battery Energy Storage Projects**: - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh, which is an important step towards its goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland, which will help Scotland achieve its net - zero emissions and renewable energy consumption goals [11]. - **Solar Cell Innovation**: A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag). The silver usage is less than 0.5 mg/W, far lower than that of traditional silver - contact cells, while achieving almost the same efficiency, which is expected to significantly reduce production costs [11].