Core Viewpoint - The performance of major asset classes in September 2025 indicates a strong showing for technology and gold assets, with a notable divergence in stock and commodity markets, reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors [1][2][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In September 2025, major asset performance ranked as follows: Tech > ChiNext Index > Gold > Hang Seng Index > Nasdaq > Japanese Stocks > LME Copper > S&P 500 > CSI 300 > European Stocks > South China Composite > 0 ≈ USD > Chinese Bonds > Crude Oil > Long VIX [1][14]. - Year-to-date (YTD) performance for Chinese technology assets and gold reached 52% as of October 7, 2025, marking them as the top performers [2][14]. - The domestic equity market saw a "red September," with an average daily trading volume of 2.42 trillion yuan, while the CSI 300 index recorded a 2.8% increase [2][38]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global stock market closed positively, with the Nasdaq and Japanese stocks rising over 5% in September, reflecting optimistic market sentiment [2][28]. - The correlation between stock and bond yields deepened, with the rolling 12-month correlation moving from -0.38 to -0.62, indicating a stronger inverse relationship [2][38]. - The real estate market showed signs of recovery, with year-on-year sales turning positive, particularly in the second-hand housing market [2][38]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Indicators - The macroeconomic landscape is characterized by a divergence in hard and soft data, with the U.S. showing marginal declines in soft data and mixed results in hard data due to government shutdown impacts [3][4]. - China's hard and soft data trends remain consistent, with both showing marginal improvements, particularly in soft indicators like BCI and PMI [3][4]. Group 4: Future Drivers - Future drivers for equity assets may stem from the upcoming quarterly reports and policy announcements, particularly regarding domestic demand and new industries [5]. - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to stimulate infrastructure investment, benefiting cyclical sectors [5]. Group 5: Valuation and Timing Signals - The "valuation-macro deviation" framework indicates that the current P/E ratio is at a +1.82 standard deviation, suggesting that the market is approaching a critical valuation point [8]. - The latest timing signals from the M1-BCI-PPI system show a rebound in scores, indicating a stabilization in economic signals [6]. Group 6: Gold Pricing Model - The gold market has seen a 16% increase since September, driven by a combination of Fed rate cut expectations, government shutdown, and geopolitical risks [12][34]. - The sensitivity of gold prices to real interest rates remains low, with projections suggesting potential price levels between $4012.57 and $4118.27 per ounce if real rates decline further [12].

Group 1 - The article discusses the macro perspective on the recent revaluation of equity assets, summarizing insights from eleven reports that form a methodological series [1] - It identifies five asset classes that have performed notably well since early 2025, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, emerging market stocks, major market tech stocks, and alternative assets [6] - The article outlines three main themes behind these asset performances: the weakening of dollar credit and "soft decoupling" of assets, the reshaping of global supply chains and "backup" supply, and a new wave of technological revolution and industrial layout [1][6] Group 2 - The article analyzes the acceleration of technological innovation in China, using the pharmaceutical industry as an example to observe the release of the "engineer dividend" in the economy [2][9] - It discusses the relationship between the appreciation of the RMB and asset appreciation, noting that the exchange rate is influenced by purchasing power parity, interest rate differentials, and risk premiums [2][11] Group 3 - The article identifies five key drivers behind the recent pricing recovery of equity assets, including total recovery, broad-based growth improvement, increased asset activity among residents, medium to long-term capital entering the market, and rising credit risk premiums on dollar assets [2][13] - It explains the phase of divergence between equity market performance and economic indicators, using the "Changjiang Business School BCI" to represent economic fundamentals and "Wind All A" for the equity market [2][13] Group 4 - The article explores the relationship between liquidity and asset pricing, indicating that liquidity affects financial market asset pricing through opportunity costs and the availability of financing [3][13] - It summarizes five characteristics of high-growth narratives in the equity market, observed during specific periods, including macro risk clearance, low traditional asset profitability, ample liquidity, sticky expected returns, and the presence of industry narratives [3][14] Group 5 - The article presents a "5+1" timing framework for high-growth narratives, which has yielded a cumulative return of 1147.47% since 2006, with an annualized return of 13.96% and an annualized excess return of 2.98% [4][15] - It builds an analytical framework for understanding the recent rise in gold prices, incorporating its financial, monetary, commodity, and safe-haven attributes, along with a quantitative monitoring system for gold price indicators [4][16]

Core Viewpoint - By the third quarter of 2025, Chinese technology assets are leading among major asset classes, reflecting the trend of China's economic upgrade and the realization of the "engineer dividend" advantage [1][9][10]. Dimension Summaries Dimension 1: Macro Risk Clearance - High-growth narratives require a risk clearance opportunity where capital is willing to invest. The study tested six potential variables, revealing that timing signals based on the MOVE index and monthly nominal GDP down volatility yield significant excess returns. The strategies based on these signals since 2006 have shown cumulative returns of 1176.91% and 1227.15%, respectively [2][13][16]. Dimension 2: Nominal Growth Rate Central Level - If the nominal growth rate is below the historical average, asset returns are constrained. A strategy of increasing allocation to technology assets when nominal GDP is low has yielded cumulative returns of 1184.04% since 2006. The best macro scenario for high-growth sectors is when nominal growth is at a low level with marginal improvement [3][17][19]. Dimension 3: High-Yield Asset Scarcity - The essence of asset scarcity is not a lack of assets but a mismatch between changing asset returns and rigid capital return expectations. A strategy based on high-yield asset scarcity has yielded cumulative returns of 258.06% since 2014, indicating that negative carry conditions favor technology assets [4][21][23]. Dimension 4: Internal and External Liquidity Conditions - The analysis considers both domestic and international liquidity conditions. A strategy based on low SHIBOR rates and a narrowing yield spread has shown cumulative returns of 433.01% since 2012, indicating favorable conditions for technology stocks [5][25][27]. Dimension 5: Existence of Industry Narratives - The study quantifies the impact of long-term narratives on short-term pricing by examining the difference between price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. A strategy based on the presence of industry narratives has yielded cumulative returns of 518.05% since 2009, suggesting that new industry information can catalyze long-term narratives [6][30][32]. Dimension 6: High-Growth Odds Perspective - The analysis focuses on market breadth and concentration within technology stocks. A strategy based on market width has yielded cumulative returns of 264.87% since 2013, indicating that a healthy market breadth is essential for sustaining high-growth narratives [7][34][35]. Composite Summary - A "5+1" timing strategy has been constructed, integrating five winning dimensions and one odds dimension. The composite signal has shown cumulative returns of 1147.47% since 2006, indicating a robust framework for understanding high-growth asset pricing [8][36][38].

Group 1 - The A500ETF by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 1.78% and a transaction volume of 2.21 billion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 3.32 billion yuan over the past week as of September 1 [3] - The latest scale of A500ETF Jiashi reached 12.397 billion yuan, with a net value increase of 19.52% over the past six months [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 11.71%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being 4 months and a maximum increase of 22.93% [3] - Analysts from multiple brokerages are optimistic about the A-share market's medium to long-term trends, focusing on technology, consumption, and non-bank financial sectors [3] - The chief economist of GF Securities noted a "high growth narrative" in the market, indicating that industries with high growth potential are performing particularly well [3] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 index include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, and others, accounting for a total of 19.11% [4] - The individual weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Kweichow Moutai at 3.87%, CATL at 2.89%, and Ping An Insurance at 2.60% [6] - Investors without stock accounts can access the A500ETF Jiashi linked fund (022454) to invest in the top 500 A-share companies [6]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The overall trend of the A-share market is expected to be positive, supported by multiple favorable factors, with a focus on technology, consumption, and non-bank financial sectors for investment allocation [1][2] - Analysts believe that the A-share market can achieve valuation recovery and structural opportunities in a stable macroeconomic environment, aided by sufficient policy support and moderately loose monetary policy [2][3] Group 2: Economic Policy and Growth - Domestic economic policies will focus on three main lines: addressing real estate and local hidden debt risks, expanding fiscal stimulus to upgrade domestic consumption, and stimulating effective investment across society [2] - Economic growth in China is expected to return to around 5.0% by the second half of 2026 after a brief transformation period, marking the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development [2] Group 3: Sector Preferences - The brokerage firms are optimistic about technology growth assets, viewing them as crucial for economic transformation and benefiting from policy support and market demand [4] - Specific investment recommendations include non-bank financial sectors, real estate chains, overseas computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, and domestic AI infrastructure and applications [4] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The current market environment is characterized by a balance between fundamental and liquidity-driven factors, with expectations for a turning point in return on equity (ROE) in the fourth quarter of this year [5] - There are indications of overbought conditions in the market, suggesting that investors should maintain some liquidity to manage potential future volatility [5]

Group 1 - The overall trend of the A-share market is expected to be positive in the medium to long term, supported by multiple favorable factors [1][2] - Analysts from various securities firms are optimistic about sectors such as technology, consumption, and non-bank financials [1][2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is conducive to a positive trend in the A-share market, with sufficient policy support and a reasonably ample monetary policy ensuring liquidity [2] - The "high growth narrative" is evident in the market, with high-growth industries or sectors performing prominently [2] - Domestic economic policies will focus on addressing real estate and local hidden debt risks, stimulating domestic consumption, and encouraging effective investment [2] Group 3 - The securities firms are particularly bullish on technology growth as a key driver of economic transformation, benefiting from policy support and market demand [4] - The main investment directions suggested include non-bank financial sectors, real estate chains, overseas computing power chains, and domestic AI infrastructure [4] - The outlook for manufacturing sector recovery is becoming clearer, with recommendations to focus on physical assets and sectors benefiting from domestic demand [4] Group 4 - Current market conditions are characterized by a balance between liquidity and fundamental drivers, with expectations for a turning point in return on equity (ROE) in Q4 [5] - There are indications of some overbought conditions in the market, suggesting the need for investors to reserve some positions for potential future volatility [5][6]

Group 1 - The overall trend of the A-share market is expected to be positive, supported by multiple favorable factors, with a focus on technology, consumption, and non-bank financial sectors for investment allocation [1][3][6] - Analysts believe that the macroeconomic environment is conducive to valuation recovery and structural opportunities in the A-share market, with a stable macroeconomic backdrop [3][4] - The domestic economic policy will focus on addressing real estate and local debt risks, stimulating domestic consumption, and encouraging effective investment [3][6] Group 2 - The market is currently characterized by a "high growth narrative," where high-growth industries are performing notably well, indicating a favorable macroeconomic environment [3][6] - The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose in the fourth quarter, with a shift in focus towards whether corporate performance can follow the recovery in valuation and sentiment [4][7] - The main investment themes include technology growth assets, domestic consumption, and sectors benefiting from overseas manufacturing recovery [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the A-share market is expected to maintain a medium to long-term upward trend supported by multiple positive factors, with a focus on sectors such as technology, consumption, and non-bank financials [2][4][7]. Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for the A-share market, with sufficient policy support and moderately loose monetary policy ensuring reasonable liquidity, leading to valuation recovery and structural opportunities [4][5]. - Analysts from various securities firms highlight a "high growth narrative" in the market, indicating that industries with high growth potential are performing particularly well [4]. - The domestic economic policy is focused on three main lines: addressing real estate and local hidden debt risks, stimulating domestic consumption through fiscal expansion, and encouraging effective investment across society [4]. Group 3 - The liquidity environment in the domestic market is expected to remain loose in the fourth quarter, with a shift in focus towards whether corporate performance can follow the recovery in valuations and sentiment [5][8]. - The securities firms recommend focusing on four key areas for investment: non-bank financials, real estate chains, overseas computing power chains, and domestic AI infrastructure and applications [7]. - The outlook for manufacturing sector recovery is becoming clearer, with investors advised to pay attention to physical assets benefiting from overseas manufacturing recovery and sectors related to domestic demand [7]. Group 4 - The current market situation is characterized as being between the fundamental-driven market of 2006-2007 and the liquidity-driven market of 2014-2015, with optimism about a potential turning point in return on equity (ROE) in the fourth quarter [8]. - Investors are advised to be cautious of potential overbought conditions in the market and to consider left-side layout opportunities in the consumption sector, which may reflect longer-term trends beyond short-term rebounds [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market trend is characterized by a "high growth narrative," where industries or sectors with high growth potential are performing prominently [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since early April, the A-share market has seen a significant upward trend, driven by macroeconomic factors such as narrow liquidity easing and the appreciation of the RMB [4]. - The market is currently experiencing a "high growth narrative," which typically occurs under conditions of risk phase clearing, ample liquidity, and low opportunity costs for funds [4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The non-bank financial sector, A-share real estate chain, Hong Kong real estate sector, overseas computing power chain, innovative pharmaceuticals, domestic computing power, AI infrastructure, and AI edge applications are identified as key investment opportunities [2][5][6]. - The small-cap stock index has surged over 56% this year, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, indicating a trend favoring small-cap stocks [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A500 index has shown positive performance, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Tianfu Communication and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, suggesting a bullish market sentiment [1][4] - The A500 ETF managed by Harvest has seen a trading volume of 3.80 billion yuan, with a recent average daily trading volume of 34.15 billion yuan over the past week, indicating strong liquidity [3] - As of August 27, 2025, the A500 ETF has achieved a net asset value increase of 12.72% over the past six months, with a maximum monthly return of 4.48% since its inception [3] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 index include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and Ping An Insurance, collectively accounting for 19.83% of the index [3][6] - The market outlook suggests that active participation from retail investors and foreign capital, along with favorable macroeconomic signals, may accelerate the second phase of a bull market [4] - The current market is characterized by a "high growth narrative," where sectors with high growth potential are outperforming, indicating a focus on growth-oriented assets [4]