美联储哈马克：高通胀对经济而言仍是一个现实问题。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Hamark emphasizes the importance of monitoring stablecoins and private credit, indicating that the current financial environment is "quite loose" and that interest rate cuts could distort market pricing levels, potentially prolonging high inflation scenarios [1] Group 1 - The current financial environment is described as "quite loose," suggesting ample liquidity in the market [1] - Interest rate cuts may pose risks by distorting market pricing levels and could lead to prolonged high inflation [1] - Lowering interest rates for risk management purposes could increase financial stability risks [1]

（文章来源：新华财经） 美联储官员哈玛克称，降息可能会延长高通胀，降息也可能鼓励金融市场冒险行为。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 据外媒报道，美联储官员哈玛克表示，降息有延长高通胀的风险。 ...

中美新老经济分化加剧，债牛趋势更为确定 20251119 2025 年各类资产表现良好，但国内债券市场表现较弱，不宜简单外推 至 2026 年，需关注市场拐点和结构性变化，而非仅依赖过去一年的表 现进行预测。 中美经济呈现新老经济加速分化特征，美国面临"三高"问题，传统企 业成本压力大，消费驱动型经济面临就业和消费信心挑战，AI 发展集中 于少数头部企业，对 GDP 和就业拉动效果有限。 中国股市主要反映新经济增长，但占比仍较低，传统经济放缓，房地产 市场加速下滑，对整体投资增速产生负面影响，2025 年中国首次出现 投资增速不增长。 新经济发展主要体现在制造业投资上，但新老经济分化明显，新兴产业 用电量高，传统建筑业下降。股市与债市并非完全对立，新经济带动股 市，债券市场关注传统产业，两者可共存。 全球股票估值处于历史高位，风险溢价偏高，但未达到互联网泡沫时期 极端水平。黄金与其他大类资产定价存在矛盾，反映市场对经济前景的 不确定性和分裂状态。 Q&A 在展望 2026 年经济时，应该避免哪些常见的误区？ 展望 2026 年经济时，应避免线性外推，即不能简单地基于 2025 年的情况直 接推断 2026 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The high inflation in the U.S. is primarily attributed to the methods of measurement rather than underlying economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's perspective indicates that the current inflation metrics may not accurately reflect the true economic situation [1] - There is a suggestion that the measurement techniques used to assess inflation could be leading to an overestimation of inflation rates [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market remains near historical highs as companies begin to report their summer earnings, with the S&P 500 index only 0.2% below its record high [2] - General Motors reported quarterly earnings that exceeded analyst expectations and raised some full-year performance targets, leading to a 10.2% increase in its stock price [2] - Halliburton and Danaher also saw stock price increases of at least 8% due to quarterly profits surpassing analyst forecasts, while Coca-Cola and GE Aerospace stocks rose by 3.4% and 4.2%, respectively [2] Group 2 - Warner Bros. Discovery announced plans to divest Discovery Global and is considering other options to enhance shareholder value, resulting in a 10.6% increase in its stock price [3] - Despite exceeding analyst profit expectations, PulteGroup's stock fell by 4.1%, and Northrop Grumman's stock declined by 2.3% due to revenue missing analyst forecasts [3] - Major tech stocks are experiencing a pause in their upward momentum, with Alphabet's stock dropping 1.3%, impacting the S&P 500 index [3] Group 3 - Gold prices have decreased by 3.3% from recent historical highs, settling at $4,215.60 per ounce, although they have risen nearly 60% year-to-date [4] - The S&P 500 index has surged 35% since April's low, putting pressure on companies to demonstrate profit growth to justify high stock prices [4] - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed important economic data updates, increasing the significance of corporate earnings reports for assessing economic vitality [4] Group 4 - In overseas markets, most European and Asian indices have risen, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index up 0.3% as investors anticipate favorable policies from newly appointed Prime Minister [5] - The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has decreased from 4.00% to 3.95% [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its independence, particularly in the context of U.S. monetary policy and economic conditions. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Challenges to Fed Independence** The Fed's independence is facing significant challenges, particularly from the Trump administration, which is attempting to influence the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) by appointing representatives aligned with its views [2][8][11] 2. **Impact of New Appointee** The appointment of Stephen Milan, who supports aggressive rate cuts, contrasts sharply with the majority of FOMC members, potentially affecting the decision-making process within the Fed [1][2] 3. **Pressure from Trump** Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to implement substantial rate cuts, claiming that a reduction of 200-300 basis points could save the government $800 billion in interest payments [2][6][8] 4. **Internal Unity Among Fed Members** Despite external pressures, the presence of Milan has seemingly fostered greater unity among existing FOMC members, as evidenced by their voting behavior [2][5] 5. **Historical Context of Fed Independence** Historical precedents, such as the tenure of Arthur Burns in the 1970s, illustrate that a loss of Fed independence can lead to high inflation and unemployment, with gold prices performing exceptionally well during such periods [3][9][10] 6. **Current Economic Indicators** Recent CPI data has come in below expectations, leading to market speculation that the Fed may cut rates twice more in 2025, which has resulted in a decline in short-term interest rates and a rise in long-term rates [4][5] 7. **Miscalculations in Interest Savings** The claim that a 200 basis point cut would save $800 billion is flawed, as only 20% of U.S. government debt is in short-term bills, and the remaining 80% is in longer-term bonds, which are not directly influenced by the Fed [6][7] 8. **Potential Market Reactions** If the Fed loses its independence, historical patterns suggest that gold prices could continue to rise while the dollar index remains weak, reflecting a loss of confidence in the dollar [12] 9. **Future Economic Risks** The risk of high inflation remains a concern if the Fed adopts a more aggressive rate-cutting stance under new leadership, which could mirror past economic challenges [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The dynamics of the current market are similar to those observed during the Burns era, with gold prices potentially reaching new highs despite short-term fluctuations [4][10] - The geopolitical landscape and investor sentiment towards the dollar are also contributing factors to the anticipated performance of gold and the dollar index [12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under direct challenge, with "external" member Miran representing the White House's aggressive rate cut stance, contrasting sharply with the more moderate internal views[4] - In the short term, the Federal Reserve's independence may not be immediately lost due to the unity among "internal" members, despite external pressures[6] - The experience from the Burns era indicates that a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could lead to a weaker dollar and a stronger gold market[8] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Historical Context - During Burns' tenure, the U.S. economy experienced both high inflation and high unemployment, with an average CPI inflation rate of 6.5% and an average unemployment rate of 6.3%[52] - The Federal Reserve's policy rate was reduced by over 200 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 24 basis points during this period[8] - The S&P 500 index declined by 1.7%, and the dollar index fell by over 20%, while gold prices surged by over 425.6%[50] Group 3: Current Federal Reserve Dynamics - The September 2025 dot plot revealed one member advocating for a policy rate below 3%, suggesting a need for rate cuts exceeding 50 basis points in upcoming meetings[19] - The voting dynamics show a split among members, with 9 members supporting a total of 3 rate cuts this year, while 6 members oppose any further cuts[19] - The recent voting results indicate a temporary unity among internal members, with only Miran dissenting on the extent of the rate cut[22]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Turkey announced a reduction in the policy interest rate from 40.5% to 39.5%, aligning with market expectations [4] - The Central Bank's statement highlighted an increase in the underlying trend of inflation in September, despite signs of deflationary pressure [4] - The consumer confidence index in Turkey fell to 83.6 points in October, the lowest since July, indicating a slight deterioration in households' assessment of their current financial situation [4] Group 2 - Foreign investors increased their holdings of Turkish government bonds by $151.1 million, while there was an outflow of $178 million from Turkish stocks [4] - The annual inflation rate in Turkey rose from 32.95% in August to 33.29% in September, marking the first increase in 16 months [4][5] - Recent monetary policy actions in other countries included the Bank of Korea maintaining its rate at 2.50% and the Central Bank of Ukraine keeping its key rate at 15.5% [5]