瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货价格明显回落 盘面再度下探 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 鸡蛋： 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋继续收跌，2511合约收盘价为2806元/500千克，较前一周-232元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：蛋鸡在产存栏仍较高，老鸡尚未超淘，高产能仍是市场主要关注点，且节后消费季节 性转淡，鸡蛋供需宽松状态预计将继续维持，也持续压制近月合约。另外，国庆假日期间，鸡蛋 现货价格也明显下跌，节后补库也不及预期，现货市场进一步走弱，拖累节后盘面的表现。总体 而言，高产能压力仍存，叠加现货价格下跌，近月合约再度走低，远月受产能去化逻辑支撑，表 现或强于近月合约。 Ø 策略建议：近月合约仍以偏空交易为主，关注老鸡淘汰量。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价 ...

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 9 月 29 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently facing high supply pressure due to a high inventory of laying hens, new egg - laying hens from previous replenishments, and an increase in egg - laying rates as the temperature drops. Although there was a demand recovery during the pre - holiday stocking period, with the approach of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the pre - holiday stocking is ending, and the market is slowing down, causing the spot price to decline slightly. The high - capacity pressure persists, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient, resulting in a price decline again. The trading strategy is still mainly short - biased, and attention should be paid to the number of old hens being culled [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Strategy**: The trading strategy for eggs is still mainly short - biased, and attention should be paid to the number of old hens being culled [6]. - **Market Review**: This week, the egg futures fluctuated and closed lower. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 3036 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 76 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: High supply pressure persists. Although there was a short - term demand recovery during the pre - holiday stocking period, as the pre - holiday stocking ends, the market slows down, and the spot price declines slightly, leading to a lack of upward momentum in the futures price [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Top 20 Positions**: The egg futures 11 contract fluctuated and closed lower. The position volume was 315,276 lots, a decrease of 82,779 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 20,779, with a slight increase in net short positions compared to last week's - 18,354 [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 26 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3619 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 127 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 11 - contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at 583 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of egg futures was reported at - 318 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [27]. - **Related Spot Prices**: As of September 25, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.44 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 5.05 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3. Industry Chain - **Supply - side: Inventory and Replenishment**: As of August 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 114.42, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The national new - chick index was 73.35, a month - on - month decrease of 6.44% [39]. - **Laying - hen Culling Index and Culling Age**: As of August 31, 2025, the national laying - hen culling index was 93.61, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. The national culling age of hens was 510 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2364.9 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2960 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the breeding profit per laying hen was + 0.17 yuan, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of September 19, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas was 2.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 9.34 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Monthly Egg Exports**: In August 2025, China's total egg exports were 13,121.03 tons, an increase of 1281.43 tons compared to the same period last year (an increase of 10.82%), and an increase of 264.92 tons compared to the previous month [62]. 3.4. Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: Only a chart of price - to - earnings ratio changes was provided, but no specific analysis content [64].

鸡蛋产业日报 2025-09-25 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 20 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 3076 | -7285 | -4594 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千克) 21 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | -17 | 346279 | -16242 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) 26 | 26 | | | | 现货市 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the national egg price declined. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.65 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main consuming areas was 3.84 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 11 - contract dropped 1.51%. [7] - For egg contracts: the 2510 contract closed at 2982, down 56 (-1.84%); the 2511 contract closed at 3075, down 47 (-1.51%); the 2512 contract closed at 3201, down 58 (-1.78%). [7] Core View - After the weakest summer peak season in recent years, the spot market has gradually stabilized and rebounded. The supply pressure has eased due to accelerated culling from August to September, and there is still demand support from Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking in September. However, the spot peak - season rise is expected to end soon. [8] - In the futures market, contracts in the fourth quarter fell sharply earlier and rose significantly last Monday. The previous weak market sentiment and short - dominated market led to a rise in the basis. The strong spot market caused the futures market to make up for the increase. [8] - The supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. After the price increase, there may be fluctuations. If there are profits from long positions, it is advisable to take profits at high prices. The near - month 10 contract may enter the delivery month with a high discount. The rebound space should not be overestimated. [8] Operation Suggestions - Future contract operations need to continuously monitor culling and replenishment data. The fundamental inflection point may appear in the later part of the fourth quarter at the earliest. There may be adjustment space in the short - to - medium term after the spot market encounters resistance. [8] Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of August, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.365 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. [9] - The monthly output of layer chicks in sample enterprises in August was about 39.81 million, slightly less than 39.98 million in July and significantly less than 43.95 million in the same period in 2024. The low breeding profits in the past two months have started to change farmers' expansion mindset. [9][10] - From the weekly data, as of September 18, the national culling volume in the previous three weeks was 17.61 million, 17.48 million, and 17.89 million respectively. The culling volume has been rising since August, and the current absolute value is slightly higher than the average of the previous three years. As of September 18, the average culling age was 497 days, 2 days later than last week and 9 days earlier than last month. [10] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes data charts such as the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, layer breeding profits, the average price in the main egg - producing areas, the 10 - contract basis of eggs, the 12 - 02 spread of eggs, and the 10 - contract seasonal trend of eggs, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen. [13][17][20]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 22 日 鸡蛋：旺季将过 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡 蛋2510 | 3,025 | -0.53 | | -32,405 | -8,471 | | | 鸡 蛋2601 | 3,418 | 0.65 | | -6,036 | -3,886 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡 蛋1 0-1 2价 差 | | -231 | | -223 | | | | 鸡 蛋1 0-1价 差 | | -393 | | -375 | | | 产业链数据 | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.50 | | 3.50 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 3.42 | | 3.53 | | | | 山西现货价格 | | 3.55 | | 3.65 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The decrease in temperature has increased the laying rate of hens, further exacerbating the supply pressure. However, due to pre - Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking, the recent purchase volume of traders has increased, and the market demand has shown signs of recovery, which has supported the egg price and the futures price. But the high - capacity pressure still exists and restricts the futures price. It is recommended to conduct short - term, fast - in - and - fast - out trading and pay attention to the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the egg futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 3112 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 72 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: High egg supply due to high inventory and increased laying rate; demand recovery due to festival stocking; futures price supported by spot price but restricted by high - capacity pressure [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term fast - in - and - fast - out trading, and pay attention to the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 11 contract fluctuated and closed higher, with a position of 398,055 lots, a decrease of 11,258 lots compared with the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 18,354, and the net short position decreased slightly compared with last week [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3746 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 153 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week. The basis between the active 11 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 634 yuan/ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of eggs was - 306 yuan/500 kilograms, which was at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Spot Prices**: As of September 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.55 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 4.98 yuan/kg [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply Side - Inventory and Replenishment**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%; the national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [39]. - **Supply Side - Culling Index and Age**: As of July 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%; the national culling age was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of September 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2950 yuan/ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.02 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan/kg [55]. - **Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of September 12, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 2.6 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.22 yuan/kg [59]. - **Egg Exports**: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared with the same period last year (an increase of 7.87%), and a decrease of 81.14 tons compared with the previous month [64]. 3.4 Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: There is a chart of its price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis content is provided [66].

Core Viewpoint - The egg futures market has shown signs of recovery after hitting a low in August, driven by seasonal demand and expectations of culling hens, but the market remains in a prolonged state of competition with high supply pressure and uncertain capacity reduction [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of September 17, the main egg futures contract closed at 3122 yuan per 500 kg, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.32% [1]. - The demand for stocking ahead of the double festival and expectations regarding hen culling have contributed to the recent rebound in prices [1][4]. - The current high inventory of laying hens, which stood at 1.365 billion in August, represents a 5.9% year-on-year increase, indicating persistent supply pressure [2]. Group 2: Production and Cost Factors - The average laying hen cycle has extended to 2-2.5 years, with the current profit cycle lasting 45 months, which is longer than usual [2]. - The feed conversion ratio has improved, with leading farms achieving a ratio below 1.9, while most smallholders maintain a ratio between 2.1 and 2.15 [3]. - Cost control measures, such as the use of alternative feed ingredients, have contributed to maintaining profit margins in egg production [3]. Group 3: Culling and Supply Outlook - The market is experiencing intensified competition, with uncertainty surrounding the timing and extent of hen culling, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand [4][5]. - Current data indicates that the average age of culled hens is around 495 days, suggesting that the market has not yet reached a point of excessive culling [5]. - Projections indicate that the peak supply growth may occur in September, with a potential shift to negative year-on-year growth by December [5]. Group 4: Profitability and Market Sentiment - As of early September, the profitability of egg production has shifted from a loss of 0.13 yuan per kg to a profit of 0.26 yuan, marking a significant turnaround [7]. - The current market sentiment reflects a rebound in prices due to an overload of bearish expectations, rather than a fundamental reversal in the market [7]. - The high inventory levels and existing profitability are likely to hinder rapid capacity reduction in the near term [7].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Egg futures contracts 2510, 2511, and 2512 all declined, with the 2511 contract down 0.86%. The main producing areas' average egg price was 3.76 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the main consuming areas' average price was 4.00 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin [7]. Core View - After the weakest summer peak season in recent years, the spot market has stabilized and rebounded. The futures market rose today to catch up after the weekend's strong spot market. However, supply pressure is difficult to ease in the short - term, and there may be fluctuations after price increases. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices. The near - month 10 contract may enter the delivery month with a high discount. The rebound space should not be overestimated, and the operation of subsequent contracts needs to focus on elimination and replenishment data [8]. Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of August, the monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.365 billion, a 0.7% month - on - month increase and a 6.0% year - on - year increase. The monthly hatch of layer chicks in August was about 39.81 million, a decrease from July and a significant decrease compared with the same period in 2024 [9]. - The weekly chicken culling volume has been increasing since August, and as of September 4, the average age of culled chickens was 495 days, 1 day earlier than the previous week and 11 days earlier than the previous month [10]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profits, egg 10 - contract basis, and egg 12 - 02 spread, etc. [16][11]

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 9 月 16 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...