责任编辑：山上 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 12月22日，美国财经网站Investinglive分析师Justin Low表示，圣诞假期临近，黄金和白银交易员却并未 放慢步伐。贵金属在新一周持续冲高，现货黄金如今已飙升至每盎司4400美元上方的新纪录高位。若黄 金明确站稳在4400美元上方，将打开更大上行空间。但黄金面临的逆风可能要到2026年下半年才会真正 显现。即便如此，不能排除市场参与者提前消化这一预期的可能性。 黄金上涨叙事的关键挑战在于"主要央行将逐步从降息转向，并在未来重新提及加息"。这一点值得警 惕。但至少目前，黄金买家将继续维持看涨势头。不过，流动性稀薄可能放大当前涨幅，尤其圣诞与新 年假期临近，市场交投渐趋清淡。因此，即便季节性规律显示过去二十年中12月和1月是黄金表现较好 的月份，在展望进一步涨势时也需将流动性因素纳入考量。 ...

除了美联储，本周加拿大、澳大利亚、瑞士、巴西、乌克兰、土耳其等央行也将陆续公布利率决议，全 球货币政策走向备受关注。 从黄金市场来看，分析人士指出，中长期内，推动黄金上涨的核心驱动因素并未改变。国际黄金协会预 测，2026年金价极有可能继续带来"惊喜"。若全球经济增长放缓、利率进一步下降，黄金有望温和上 涨；而在全球风险上升、经济严重低迷的时期，黄金或将展现出强劲表现。当下，美债收益率下行、地 缘政治风险居高不下以及避险需求显著增强等因素相互叠加，为黄金上涨提供了极为有力的支撑。目 前，国际投资机构普遍预测，2026年黄金目标价将处于4500美元—5000美元/盎司的区间。 12月8日周一早盘，贵金属市场与美股期货市场均呈现积极态势。现货黄金表现强劲，再度向4200美元/ 盎司发起冲击，现货白银同样不甘示弱，涨幅达0.23%，报58.423美元/盎司。与此同时，美股三大股指 期货也迎来小幅高开。 工银瑞信基金也认为，随着美联储降息预期持续升温，新一轮货币宽松及债务扩张将有利于金价表现。 从长期视角来看，黄金将持续受益于全球多极化与信用格局的重塑，这将推动黄金在外汇储备中的占比 进一步提升。 本周，全球金融市场 ...

格隆汇12月1日｜今日有色板块全线上扬，现货黄金延续涨势，突破4250美元/盎司，金ETF(159834)上 涨1.33%，冲击三连涨，年内涨幅扩大至55%。黄金股全线上扬，南方中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数 A(021958)年内涨幅高达75.93%（截至11月28日）。 中信建投证券发研报称，伴随美国通胀回落以及劳动力市场韧性下降，美联储下半年降息预期升温，降 息开启带动的名义利率及实际利率下降，将为黄金上涨注入新动力。 金ETF(159834)最新规模12.99亿元，较年初增幅超160%。该ETF密切跟踪上海黄金交易所黄金现货实盘 合约价格，透明度高而且流动性好，支持T+0日内交易，场外联接基金（A：018391，C：018392)。 消息面上，在美联储12月降息预期升温下，现货黄金11月份涨5.9%，今日现货黄金延续涨势，突破 4250美元/盎司。分析师认为，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特作为鲍威尔继任者的热门人选，帮 助推动了对贵金属的买盘。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market has regained investor attention with prices surging nearly 2% to break the $4160 per ounce level, reaching a high of $4211, the highest since October 21 [1] - The recent price increase is attributed to multiple factors, including economic uncertainty and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield dropping to 4.059%, has reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Government Actions - The U.S. government shutdown, lasting 43 days, has created a significant data void, impacting economic growth and investor sentiment [3] - The House of Representatives has moved forward with a funding bill to end the government shutdown, which is expected to restore the release of key economic data [3] - The ADP weekly employment report indicated a significant reduction in private sector jobs, reinforcing expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - The combination of low interest rates and economic uncertainty has enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with silver also experiencing a notable price increase [5] - The narrowing gold-silver ratio suggests a positive trend in the precious metals market, indicating increased capital inflow [5] - The upcoming release of pent-up economic data is likely to confirm the slowdown in the U.S. economy, further supporting the case for gold investment [6]

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Group 1 - The long-term narrative logic, liquidity support, and macro background suggest that the non-ferrous metal market is still in its early stages and has not yet reached its midpoint [2][39] - The strength of gold has been ongoing since last year, with the core logic being the weakening of the US dollar credit rather than just interest rate cuts, which are merely a catalytic factor [2][12][25] - The gold price is expected to continue rising at least until next year or the year after, driven by central bank purchases and the narrative of de-dollarization [2][3][25] Group 2 - Copper resources are not significantly overvalued, and the industrial non-ferrous metals sector is primarily driven by copper narratives, with other metals gaining attention due to increased copper consumption [2][10][39] - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant gains this year, with indices generally rising between 70% and 90%, outperforming other sectors [8][9][10] - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to infrastructure upgrades and the transition to smart grids, while supply is constrained by slow production growth and stricter environmental regulations [10][11][19] Group 3 - The recent volatility in the non-ferrous metal sector is notable, with daily fluctuations exceeding 5%, indicating a strong cyclical nature [34][40] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, considering a phased investment strategy to manage risks associated with high volatility [34][38] - Current valuations of non-ferrous metals appear reasonable, with static PE around 22 times and PB around 3.4 times, suggesting that despite significant price increases, the sector remains attractive [36][39]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in spot gold prices have been observed, with a significant drop of up to 6.3% followed by a recovery, indicating volatility in the gold market [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On October 21 to 22, spot gold prices experienced a notable decline, with the maximum drop recorded at 6.3% [1]. - Following the drop, spot gold prices rebounded, with a reported increase of 0.98% by October 22, reaching a peak of $4,146.79 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - According to Guosen Securities' latest research report, several long-term factors support the upward trend of gold prices, including the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, the trend of de-dollarization, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and structural supply-demand imbalances [3]. - The recent price drop is not expected to alter the fundamental logic supporting the long-term bullish trend of gold [3].

Core Insights - Gold has experienced a record-breaking rally, significantly influenced by declining confidence in the US dollar [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold's Rise - Eroding confidence in the US dollar is a primary driver of gold's price increase [1] - The global financial system is being impacted by the surge in gold prices, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1] Group 2: Implications for the Financial System - The rise in gold prices may signal broader economic concerns and a potential reevaluation of asset values [1] - Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset amid uncertainties in the financial markets [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $4250 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 60%, while silver prices have risen more than 83% this year [1][3] - Domestic gold prices in China also rose, closing at 967.29 yuan per gram, reflecting a 1.79% increase, while silver prices exceeded 12000 yuan per kilogram [1][3] - The trading activity in both the physical and futures markets for gold and silver has intensified, indicating a growing interest among investors [1][3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange have issued warnings regarding market volatility and advised investors to manage risks and invest rationally [3] - In September, trading volume for precious metals futures surged, with gold futures volume increasing by 64.61% year-on-year and 78.49% month-on-month, while silver futures saw a 125.59% month-on-month increase despite a year-on-year decline [5] - The total scale of gold-themed ETFs in the domestic stock market has surpassed 200 billion yuan, with net inflows exceeding 80 billion yuan this year [5] Group 3 - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, has seen its holdings increase by 40 tons since the beginning of 2025, although it remains significantly below its historical peak of 1352.65 tons [5][6] - The iShares Silver Trust reported a holding of 15422.61 tons as of mid-October, up nearly 1000 tons from the beginning of the year, but still below its peak of 21067.85 tons in February 2021 [6] Group 4 - Expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could drive further increases in gold prices, with predictions of a potential rise to $4500 or even $4800 per ounce by early 2026 [8] - Analysts suggest that if the U.S. government reopens after a shutdown, there may be a short-term pullback in gold prices, but the overall trend remains bullish for those holding positions for more than three months [8]

Core Insights - Central banks and private investors are significantly driving the demand for gold, indicating a strong interest in the precious metal as a safe-haven asset [1] - Jamie Dimon has suggested that gold prices could potentially reach between $5,000 and $10,000, reflecting a bullish outlook on the commodity [1] Demand Drivers - The involvement of central banks in purchasing gold has increased, contributing to heightened demand [1] - Private investors are also showing a growing interest in gold, further supporting its market value [1] Price Projections - Jamie Dimon's forecast of gold reaching $5,000 to $10,000 suggests a potential for substantial price appreciation in the future [1]