《清华金融评论》 2025 年第 12 期专题 前瞻美债与美元 : 长周期视角 截至 2025 年 10 月，美国国债规模已超过 37.86 万亿美元。 2025 财年美国联邦预算赤字达 1.8 万亿美元， 与 2024 财年 持平 ，仍处于历史高位 。更值得 注意的是 , 美国公共债务净利息成本首次突破 1 万亿美元大关 , 比 2024 财年增长约 8% 。债务利息的飙升是国家债务不断增长和高利率环境下的必然结果 , 短期内政府难以应对这一结构性挑战。 美国政府的关税政策和财政政策的不确定性，动摇了投资者对美债美元的信心。未来，美债收益率可能维持高位震荡，美元的强势地位可能逐渐被削弱。 投资者需密切关注美国政府的政策动态、经济数据以及全球市场变化，谨慎评估风险，做好投资决策。《清华金融评论》编 辑部 特地展开 征稿活 动，就 前瞻美债与美元 : 长周期视角 展开征稿。 以"顶天、立地、学术、政策"为原则，以"分析研究经济金融形势、解读评论经济金融政策、建言献策经济金融实践"为内容，旨在为政策制定者提供智囊 服务，为经营决策者提供咨询服务，为教学研 究者搭建交流平台，为广大投资者提供投资建议。围绕 以下 1 ...

今年黄金的涨势太猛了，让人有点猝不及防。 三四百块钱买了黄金的人，早已经翻了一番。胆子大大，在六七百块钱入手的，黄金资产也增值30% 了。 这两天金价稍微回调了一点，但也稳稳在900多一克。 那么，金价一会儿涨一会儿跌，到底受啥影响呢？ 一、美元强弱 黄金和美元的关系就像"跷跷板"。如果美元贬值，大家觉得拿着美元不划算，就会转而去买黄金，金价 就会上涨；要是美元升值，黄金就不那么香了，金价往往会下跌。 二、美联储的利率政策 美联储的利率政策对金价影响也很大。 如果美联储降息，存钱、理财的收益变低，大家就更愿意买黄金，金价上涨；要是美联储加息，钱存在 银行更划算，黄金的吸引力就下降，金价就会下跌。 三、地缘局势一紧张，黄金就"涨" 像战争、冲突，甚至银行破产这类地缘政治风险或金融风险事件，一旦局势紧张，大家就会觉得"不安 全"，黄金的"避险属性"就会被激活，局势越紧张，金价越容易涨；要是局势缓和，大家的避险情绪降 下来，金价也就跟着下跌了。 四、经济形势 如果经济出现衰退，或者未来充满不确定性，大家就会靠黄金来"稳一稳"，经济越差、越不确定，金价 越涨；反之，经济强劲的时候，大家更愿意去投资赚钱的项目，金价就会 ...

Economic Overview - The global economy showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with total demand slightly rebounding and total supply remaining stable. However, the growth outlook for Q4 is mixed, with increasing uncertainties and structural characteristics becoming more pronounced [1][10][11] - Major economies exhibited divergent performances: the US economy improved, Europe showed weak recovery, Japan faced growth pressures, and India exceeded expectations [10][11][12] Inflation and Trade - Global inflation is decreasing, but the pace of decline is slowing and becoming more differentiated. In August, the US CPI rose to 2.9% year-on-year, while the Eurozone HICP increased by 2.1% [1][22][23] - Trade policies have seen a reduction in their disruptive impact, with the WTO raising its 2025 goods trade growth forecast to 0.9% [1][26][27] Financial Market Adjustments - The financial markets have undergone significant adjustments, with the Federal Reserve adopting a dovish stance and cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September. This led to a net inflow of $82.98 billion into emerging market securities in July and August [2][3][10] - The dollar index has been fluctuating at low levels, and global stock markets have generally trended upward, with the MSCI global index rising over 10% [2][3][10] Capital Flows and Investment Trends - International capital is returning to emerging markets, with foreign direct investment (FDI) in Southeast Asia and Mexico expected to continue growing. Emerging market securities are increasingly favored by investors seeking resilient economies [2][11][12] - The report highlights potential areas for deepening cooperation between China and Europe in trade, green transformation, investment agreements, and multilateral governance under the backdrop of Trump's second term [2][11] Fiscal Policies - Major economies are maintaining an expansionary fiscal stance, but fiscal pressures are becoming more pronounced. The US fiscal deficit for FY 2025 is projected to grow by 7.7% year-on-year [2][33][36] - The Eurozone's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 78.1%, indicating increasing fiscal challenges [2][33][36]

Market Overview - The A-share market shows a positive trend, with the ChiNext index leading the charge, rising by 2.29% [1] - Major indices closed in the green, with the ChiNext performing particularly well, while the Shanghai Composite Index showed a more stable increase [3] - Total trading volume decreased by over 500 billion compared to the previous day, indicating a more cautious and selective approach from investors [3] Sector Performance - Gold stocks experienced significant gains, with major players like Zhongjin Gold and Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit, driven by international gold prices surpassing 3,480 USD [3] - The innovative drug sector also saw a surge, with stocks like Maiwei Bio and Lifang Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit, suggesting new market expectations regarding policies or industry fundamentals [3] - The technology sector, particularly CPO stocks, remained strong, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication reaching historical highs, supported by the growing demand for AI and computing power [3] Weak Sectors - Insurance, securities, and military sectors showed weak performance, with brokerage stocks collectively retreating and companies like China Satellite and China Satcom experiencing notable declines [4] - The performance of these sectors is closely tied to market sentiment and policy direction, indicating that short-term corrections are not unexpected [4] Investment Strategy - The focus should be on identifying sectors with genuine performance, logic, and growth potential rather than chasing daily market trends [4] - Gold is viewed through the lens of long-term cycles, innovative drugs are assessed for real turning points, and technology is evaluated based on hard demand [4]